Good morning everyone! I hope everyone is having a great easy Sunday morning. Remember to grab yourself a cup of early morning coffee and a mimosa before you start researching some companies boys.
Mason Cook
Guys what do you think about swing trading CHK? High insitutional ownership, stock prices hovers in the mid $2s and goes up to 3 occasionally. It's been on a downward trend for a while, but I'm wondering if I get in now during this heavy dip if I can make a solid 100% over the next few months. Thoughts?
Connor Kelly
It's still prominently over $2. Market cap 4B For an exploration company like that, can easily got back under 2 on momentum, even below $1 depending on what happens in the energy sector.
You'll want to watch tradingview.com/symbols/OANDA-NATGASUSD/ The fact that Natty G has been up in may and CHK is down might concern you, or you might like it :^)
Honestly we should start having polls in the after hours versions of these threads posted in the OP. Just pick red day or green day. I'd like to see where the numbers fall and how often the overall group of posters here is right or wrong.
Levi Adams
Holy shit I forgot about face. Gimme some of that nickjr
This! Euphoria is here frens. Futures gap and go tonight.
Lucas Sullivan
Lol no I’m on the street dude and trade tension is still high no one is buying high risk stocks like China crap still and sentiment is still low, Trump tweet Monday or later today would be great to boost us Steel being released from tariffs shows nice gains to certain stocks but I’m smelling red Monday
Zachary Thomas
CUM gang is back together again wooooo
Xavier Anderson
You’re gonna be surprised when the poll brings up only 15 people who browse here and switch IP’s to change ID’s lol
Joseph Brooks
>I’m on the street dude
oo what a cool dude
BIG cums old world are you EVEN trying
Jaxson Turner
That would also be interesting, honestly.
Angel Diaz
Just telling it as it is brah and I’ll say this with the steel tariffs lifted from mexico and Canada I would keep my eyes on AKS and NUE :)
Henry Walker
thanks for the deep and insightful analysis :^) anything else you're keeping your eyes on?
I work on a bit of a street myself, tensions aren't so high from what I can see
Couple of plays for earnings this week more specifically JWN the premiums on puts are retarded but I’m 90% certain it’s going to tank Idk what firm you’re hearing that sentiment on trade is ok but where I’m at sentiment is still low and people are more shilling strong blue chips and steel more than anything else. To each their own though
Official news was out during market hours Friday and we still sold off. Bear case is that this shows US is trying to focus more on Chyna as the trade spat looks more and more like it will be a full trade war.
We're heading to the moon. You should have bought last week
Sebastian Watson
The stock market rises, and the stock market falls. But for those who HODL, it is as the water rushing to the shore, and receding, and once more returning. The dividends will always flow.
BILIBILI will be launching the Chinese version BanG Dream mobile game public beta test on May 30 for iOS and June 5 for other platforms. Given popularity of the series, and the performance of the game in other markets, the game's launch is expected to increase the company's revenue and reduce their lost
if you're a Chinese company looking to buy expensive things (or a lot of things) in foreign currency, you might re-consider or delay that decision in the short term
But I think it's good news for buying RCs from Alibaba : )
Parker Anderson
They are probably devaluating the Yuan to absorb part of the impact caused by the additional tariff.
They have already chinked out. The chink out has yet to sink in. There is no trade deal, no negotiations. Mnuchin has no plans to go to China. The Trump blacklist was not a negotiation tactic, it was fort Sumpter.
Isaiah Reed
i say fuck china... buy american.. let them suffer
Benjamin Hughes
Getting a sweet .93 divy that I’m psyched about Dividends are your friends why hold something that doesn’t pay you?
David Phillips
pottery
Hudson Ross
I don't think the Chinaman can afford to go full dog-eater They can't afford to feed all their little chink mouths with just Europe/Asia/African trade
you think all the tens of millions of Chinese that are making some money now and growing accustomed to a middle class lifestyle are just gonna move back to the farms?
They will be crushed except BILI, which will be the first $1T market chap Chinese company
Kek We past fear / optimism phase We start see real effect trade war of deep roots in American econmommy
Lucas Jackson
The Chinese government is perfectly capable of letting its own countryman starve and die in order to maintain their rule. See the Great Leap Forward
Joseph Nguyen
Curious what is a typical blend if stocks and options? I have one options contract and want to pick some more up, they seem pretty attractive if you're confident in a stock
Hunter Powell
history might repeat itself in some ways. in other ways, things are different
there are a lot more chinese, they are more educated and certainly less idealistic compared to those times. there are more regional factions for Beijing to contend with
certain parts of Chinese history will pertain to what happens over the next decade or so. But remember this: a few extremely disgruntled workers can do a LOT more damage to an industrial/manufacturing economy than an agricultural economy.
Sure, in the past, if you weren't happy in China, maybe you or your whole village starved. Nowdays, if you're not happy, you can really throw a proverbial or literal wrench in the gears at your factory. :^)
it's not just 'options vs stocks' the timing of your option and the difference between current and strike price also effect the implied leverage of the position
I suggest not going more than 10% of your acct value in options overall, but even in that 10% (MAX), having only 2% of same-direction same-underlying options.
Game looks like it’s got a cute waifu simulator aspect. Hopefully not too erotic for the Chinese Government.
Are you the other BILI investor here? You were the DFshill? Did you get your money and get out, or are you still a Deener?
PLZ GOD YES COME ON CHINA YOU GONNA LET TRUMP DAB ON YOU OR YOU GONNA DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT?
Isaac Walker
People were not idealistic at the time of the Great Leap Forward, they are simply satisfying the political goal of higher output and thus enabled the country to continue donating foods to Africa despite millions starved to death There were actually more regional factions back then than nowadays. Nowadays there are some different factions within the party but each factions only have limited political influence, unlike back when PRC first established there were various local military power that have been existing from near the end of the Qing dynasty. Back then at least gun was even a common thing in Chinese society. Now even having some toy gun made of matches in your possession is a jailable offense What happened in the Wukan village nowadays should show that even if the entire village uprise there are little thing that can be changed (they succeeded with some of their demand back then but many of those gains or promises are being cut back by upper government afterward), not to mention they now have higher control on the society than back in year 2011
Jose Edwards
The best way to think of options is just leverage. You are getting a multiplier on your trade in exchange for a theta premium and a time limit. That multiplier will multiply your gains and your losses.
You can buy ITM options that give you very little leverage and a ton of theta with an expiration in 2021. These options work very much like a stock would. On the flip side you have an OTM weekly option that offers huge leverage and your expected outcomes will be extremely diverse.
I am a DF shill (I was only really encouraging people to buy it two or three Sundays ago when it was around 1.50 and I was re-reading a bunch of cowgirl doujins). Still up on DF, sold some and some DF options but I'm going to let my remaining shares ride I won't stop buying BILI. I will continue to shill KHC, SGMO, and a bunch of other good stuff :). Told u all to buy MD, MCK, ABC, CAH when they were low. I probably shill some other stuff too
Actually most of your post seems like you know what you're talking about more than I do But I still think my last point holds: the Chinese government can't shrug off huge discontent without cratering their economy. This makes the position of the Chinese rulers much more fragile compared to 50-80 years ago. If they want to remain a developed country, they have to maintain some level of GDP and pay for the workers who are now 'middle class'. If they don't, the more highly developed parts of their economy could disappear MUCH more quickly than comparable agrarian economic assets. (of course, they might be able to hold some or most regions together by force, but any level of significant discontent can hurt their economic output severely, very fast).
one of the more basic strategies in a typical portfolio (and I'm talking about normie boomers here) is a blend of stocks and bonds, about 70% and 25% respectively, and a constituent 5% or less dedicated to either some combination of puts or credit spreads that offset your "volatile" stocks. The intuition being, in the following cases your portfolio hopes to do the following: >Bearish Equities Your 5% hedge grants you a huge "cash bonus" that let you rebalance your now underweight stocks and overweight bonds >Neutral Credit spreads give you a little cash, like a dividend, for the market doing almost nothing >Bullish Equities The higher 70% of your stocks gives you substantial growth over the typical 60% stocks and 40% bonds folio most boomers like to shill. You lose money on the 5% hedge but that's ok because you now have a surplus of equity to rebalance.
most "responsible" blend of options works like this, but to be completely honest, most people don't even subscribe to this idea because to all normies options are bad!!!! VERY BAD! NONONO!
I saw some other people post about ETFs in southeast Asia and wonder what you guys think about this. I hate that most "emerging markets" ETFs are really just China based (fucking vwo...). But I feel china's golden age is over and places like Vietnam are gonna be next in line for a booming economy
>higher control of society now This x 100. The more I learn about the Uighurs in Xinjiang, and the social credit score, and the face recognition tech, the more clear it becomes that the Chinese are helpless against their government.
I don’t think the Western civilians have all that much power over their governments either, but the control is more of a “soft power” than in China.
And China is spreading their methods of control via tech and surveillance to the rest of the world. Many countries are interested.
By the way, have you ever lived in China?
Nice. I’m also in KHC. As for the rest of your names, I’m more interested in MMM, MCD, MRK, and MO.
The Mexican government absolutely HATES Chiapas, I forget why.
I think Chairman Xi's desire/goal is to turn China back to a more classical planned economy system (like China before opening up or like Russia in the Soviet era) if things continue to head toward this direction. It will crater their economy, but they still will have the power of industrial output to be able to compete with others. People will have harsh life, but they won't have the power to complain just like what we see in places like Venezuela now or in Iran shortly after the Iranian revolution
Parker Price
Japanese girls. It is a Japanese game that Bilibili took the Chinese version license right. You can also play the Japanese/English version of the game, but they will not be associated with bilibili.
Anthony Parker
The leverage concept is helpful thanks
Interesting. Yeah I don't see them discussed too too often here, but if you're confident in a company it seems like a great way to boost your gains
Landon Nguyen
>By the way, have you ever lived in China? Not so much for mainland China, most of the time I am at Hong Kong.
Carter Sullivan
if you live in Hong Kong you must earn a good paycheck, the housing is out of whack in there. Wish I had were there too.
Oh God, having been to China I can tell you the Chinese definitely aren't that bright like everyone makes them out to be. I have met so many engineers there that struggle with basic concepts that it doesn't surprise me how many damn accidents they have over there. Education also doesn't really matter when most of them are brainwashed as shit.
Liam Hall
I see. Thank you very much for your BILI updates! I know you don’t even invest in BILI, so I really appreciate it.
they think learning = rote memorization. if something pops up that isnt in a textbook or an original problem comes their way that they didnt see solved before their brains explode
not to mention how corrupt everything is and they pay their way through school. I personally met people at my uni that came from china and paid for their english test scores to get sent to american unis
Evan King
That description applies to most non-creative thinkers. To create a silly racialism over it is just stupid. And as far as corruption goes, was it not the American intelligence agencies that tried to literally coup a President-elect? Pretty big ask to point fingers (if you are American) about corruption.
Ian Watson
Gentlemen, please, observe for yourself that the Chinese are simply just fucking retards in lieu of Occam's Razor.
Jaxon Flores
Sure, what's the book?
Elijah Bennett
I don't know how anything that guy said was racial. Their education system is even more focused on memorization rather than critical thinking than the American system and that is saying something. I would say a cultural thing that they don't have is an eye for detail and I constantly joke with them how in the west we have a saying the devil is in the details and we love the details where I am from.
Brayden Roberts
But that kind of thing, in context of the trade war, means they lose right? I'm mostly trying to talk about what options/paths forward China has in terms of what decisions they can make over the next couple years in regards to international trade. What do you think they will do?
Man I work with Chinese PHDs (Chinese educated and American educated) I'm not saying they're bright (there are a few I've met who are pretty sharp, they tend to be the American educated ones) I was saying Chinese are more educated now than they were during the grate leap forward. That's true. With all the fancy touch phones and gadgets that you kids have these days, you might forget that only 50-100 years ago the Chinese and Koreans were pretty much dirt farmers.
are there more BILI memes or is this the first one?
Juan Russell
You can't really define win/lose of trade war that easily. Many people said Chairman Xi want to be Chairman Mao 2.0 and I think that is true, and that also include rolling back the Chinese social-economical structure
It's a good book. Just as good as any in the sticky for its purpose (simple, sensible investing that can make anyone well-off, given enough time). The books in the sticky skew towards stock-picking and trading instead of index investing.
Definitely. But I hate having meetings over there because we waste literally +2hrs explaining them basic concepts and why you need to do them just to have nod pretend they understand just to turn around and not do it. Maybe it's a cultural thing or maybe they don't want to look stupid in front of the big boss but this is super frustrating thing. Plus they are all so stone faced, emotionless, and everyone acts like they have a stick up their ass, especially the women.
Isaac Price
Milton Friedman visited Hong Kong in the early 1960s and asked Cowperthwaite, who was then Financial Secretary, why he had such limited information about the level of GDP. Friedman later wrote:
> “Cowperthwaite explained that he had resisted requests from civil servants to provide such data because he was convinced that once the data was published there would be pressure to use them for government intervention in the economy” (Friedman and Friedman, 1998)
The archives show that a great deal of this pressure was coming from the UK civil service, who were also trying hard to get the Hong Kong government to raise taxes from their low levels. But the local Hong Kong members of the Legislative Council also applied pressure to gather national income data. Cowperthwaite adopted the familiar tactic of appointing an expert to examine the issue. When seven years later in 1969 he was asked why the report had not been completed, he batted this away with the comment that the delay showed “the intractability of the problem.” He did not mention his own significant role in making its publication intractable for its long-suffering author.
ITT: white NEETs with less than 10k "invested" in biotech and triple leveraged ETFs with extreme Dunning Krugers
Nicholas Russell
Even Cowperthwaite was eventually persuaded to give some rough, indicative guess at the level of GDP for one single year. But he quickly followed this up with a warning that such figures were “very inexact” and that they “did not have a great deal of meaning, even as a basis of comparison between economies.”
He argued that the reason that so many countries collected such data was because their governments were much more involved in the economy, such that:
> “high taxation and more or less detailed Government intervention in the economy have made it essential to be able to judge (or to hope to be able to judge) the effect of policies, and of changes in policies, on the economy.”
He saw the Hong Kong government as being in the “happy position” of having very little effect on the economy. But even more importantly for him, he did not want policies to be developed to be driven by short-term national accounts targets, worrying:
> “the availability of such figures might lead, by a reversal of cause and effect, to policies designed to have a direct effect on the economy. I would myself deplore this.”
Cowperthwaite was well aware of how national accounts data had been used in America by Roosevelt to justify the New Deal, and in the UK by Keynes to justify deficit financing. As Diane Coyle has noted in her book on the history of GDP:
> “The story of GDP since 1940 is also the story of macroeconomics. The availability of national accounts statistics made demand management seem not only feasible but also scientific.”
Since Cowperthwaite deplored the way that macro-economics had evolved, it was no surprise that he was not keen to institute a platform of data collection that he felt would lead to mistaken policy. He instead looked back to the economics of Smith, Mill, Ricardo and the like.
Brandon Clark
Sorry pal, but I have 15k and I only write options.
Thank you for having a brain and explaining to him how cultural differences in how they learn. Another important detail is the view on cheating, they almost view it as doing everything they can in their power to "beat the system" and that is accepted that everyone tries to cheat. Its just a different view that everyone should work against the system to get ahead -- rather than in the west where its considered poor practice
they know its not fair if they're not allowed to cheat since everyone around them is.
it just pisses me off that during my uni years chinese students get away cheating and fucking up the curve for me and the department and school wont ever stop them since they pay big bucks to be there
I was thinking about buying enough KR to write calls on, but the premiums for weeklies aren't that great, need a stock like AMD or IQ with a higher IV to make it worth it. (I'll wait for a crash and then farm IQ for the rest of eternity) I wish BILI had a fully fleshed out options market
Eli Peterson
Insect people have no sense of morality. They are stuck in a limbo of technological hell where they have the means but not the ability to become the world's biggest superpower, all because they cannot morally advance together. The Chinese would gleefully drag his neighbor down for a quick buck, instead of engaging in win-win cons to give 2 bucks to everyone else.
Joshua Perry
I think that's just their mainland culture. All the Chinese long term immigrants who live in the USA I know are really nice desu
Angel Taylor
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Alphabet Inc’s Google has suspended business with Huawei that requires the transfer of hardware and software products except those covered by open source licenses, a source close to the matter told Reuters on Sunday, in a blow to the Chinese technology company that the U.S. government has sought to blacklist around the world.
* HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO LTD WILL IMMEDIATELY LOSE ACCESS TO UPDATES TO THE ANDROID OPERATING SYSTEM, AND THE NEXT VERSION OF ITS SMARTPHONES OUTSIDE OF CHINA WILL ALSO LOSE ACCESS TO POPULAR APPLICATIONS AND SERVICES INCLUDING THE GOOGLE PLAY STORE AND GMAIL APP.
Lucas Fisher
> Details of the specific services were still being discussed internally at Google, according to the source. Huawei attorneys are also studying the impact of the U.S. Commerce Department’s actions, a Huawei spokesman said on Friday. Huawei was not immediately reachable for further comment. > Representatives of the U.S. Commerce Department did not immediately have comment. > Huawei will continue to have access to the version of the Android operating system available through the open source license that is freely open to anyone who wishes to use it. > But Google will stop providing any technical support and collaboration for Android and Google services to Huawei going forward, the source said. > On Thursday the Trump administration officially added Huawei to a trade blacklist, immediately enacting restrictions that will make it extremely difficult for the technology giant to do business with U.S. companies.
* Trump effectively is striking right at the core of their business. This won't go over well in Beijing * It is likely Huawei will now look to release the OS it has kept secret. The one where you will have to use Chinese payment platforms. * It's usually very difficult to create a new OS because, even if you make it compatible with an existing OS (which is really the only way to do this), you then have to keep up with the changes made in that OS; the owner of the OS will make it difficult for you. * There's also the problem of licensing and patents. * The new OS would have to be backwards compatible with Android but not use any US IP. It might actually make sense for Google to help them, because it could then at least sell its software to end users on the new OS.
*This is much bigger than 5G now. Huawei won't be able to maintain existing 4G equipment, they won't be able to get software updates. Not just SEA, but the entire world. Every user of Huawei equipment is harmed by Huawei being put on the entity list, so are all of its supplier.
Carson Williams
yeah china is definitely going to retaliate big time we're fucked
I can‘t say I‘d advocate for owning Kroger at all, but I would sell monthlies on those kinds of stocks, usually to capture an actual larger equity movement rather than relying on the premium itself. You also have to understand, I sell options the way I do because I‘m replacing my day job with them. I earn very little from upswings in my underlyings.
Josiah Jenkins
Do you think China is going to give the main concessions that Trump and Lighthizer are asking for, or will they not give in to those demands, no matter if tariffs are increased?
Basically do you think China will be agreeable to what the US is asking for in the next 3-6 months (at which point Trump might up tariffs again)?
Man I'm so grateful that I don't have to deal with that in my job. My job (besides the nice pay and doing things I enjoy) is fantastic for being straightforward with communication. It's an engineering job, but it's an operational-side engineering job. I still think they should pay me more but it's definitely nice that even if you have to work with idiots (rare, and the dumbest people I have to work with aren't that dumb, just average), you can work around them pretty easily without them wasting your time.
Zachary Russell
>adopted the familiar tactic of appointing an expert to examine the issue. When seven years later in 1969 he was asked why the report had not been completed, he batted this away with the comment that the delay showed “the intractability of the problem.”
That's some dope shit right there nice
that only describes like 15-20% of these threads We're a diverse bunch, promise! BTW I'm sure it describes ~15-20% of the non-/smg/ posters throughout the rest of Jow Forums with their coins
Dominic Russell
Any companies shares worth fuck all I can buy? I don't care if it goes bust
