I was a little down about the blog post and drank too much last night. A lot of you are looking to the threshold signatures post as something bullish. There are a lot of you who are viewing this as a full scaling solution for ETH. Here's what it actually is:
>It allows aggregation to be done with essentially the same level of security as on-chain aggregation for a markedly reduced gas cost >This was a major concern for the network in that link is tied to ETH as the layer on which link is transferred and held >The scaling issues ETH has with respect to token transfers, executions of smart contracts etc. won't be directly affected, however >The overall picture of how Chainlink based (not Ethereum, hyperledger etc.) smart contracts can now be somewhat effectively seen ....
So from top to bottom, how does a smart contract work? And more importantly, what networks can be duplicated and what portions of the networks can effectively capture the most value?
First, there must be a network for the posting and execution of the smart contract code. There are discussions about how much advantage is gained by having this network be public and permissionless, but the key point about this network (ETH, Hyperledger, Dfinity, or [most likely in my opinion] a layer two scaling solution built on top of a gen 1 robust public distributed network that only writes to the public chain under certain circumstances [usually only to verify successful completion or to document dispute triggering])
Next there must be a network asset or mechanism which captures value for the posting and execution layer. In ETH this is ETH; in hyperledger this is the cost of permissioned use
Next there must be an input/output layer that makes the contract do stuff related to real life in real life. Our little hexagon is making a great case to be this layer for all of the execution layers. There also must be a way to transfer value within this layer and for now this is link on ETH- one of the early concerns was the thought of transferring 2 dollars of link for every smart contract, but it appears these transfers really only need to be finalized or posted to chain when a node wants to deposit or withdraw (and not for each individual incidence of contract execution) if we are to trust Thomas who discussed this early.
Then there is the computation portion, which can be done on the execution layer or the oracle layer. Chainlink is making a strong case to take this portion over with work like this threshold signatures post and their pull request on git. ....
Camden Cox
The sum total for all of this is a setup with the potential to cross the cost efficacy threshold for use of smart contracts in high and medium value situations. IOT and micropayments are definitely still not cost effective even using all of the above, but a 5c-$1 total cost depending on the data and computation required opens up far more use cases than a 50 dollar all on chain smart contract.
This also brings up one more point: just like how Vitalik doesn't like that Chainlink has taken the timeline out of his hands for ETH, Chainlink is (ironically) now a slave to the layer two scaling solutions for the use of smart contracts in medium value applications. I would guess that's why they chose to back celer at this stage. I think this also makes Chainlink a less fun hold from here on out as the things that determine the assets value are basically going to boil down to these two:
>How fast can they get those high value inputs and outputs up, running and available on their network (they definitely control this one) >How fast does layer two become available for those high frequency, medium value smart contracts that will account for the majority of the value add long term
To be clear I'm not selling and will probably never sell. What I'm saying is that the price action is going to become less predictable going forward. The advice to put your linkies on cold storage and come back in a year has never been better.
Nicholas Peterson
Great stuff, user. Thanks for bringing more clarity to this. I've screencapped it for later use.
Would anyone suggest buying at these prices or wait until a sub 80c range or something?
Jaxon Hernandez
thanks bro
Kayden Gomez
The data optimal answer is to buy now if you believe in the project The risk adverse answer is to dollar cost average over a set period of time knowing that over infinite samples this will cost you money but limit variance
Hunter Phillips
As far as the next steps for Chainlink, what should investors be paying attention to? Obviously seeing more projects/apps selecting Chainlink is one KPI. Someone like Docusign or other trusted enterprise companies running a node, too.
(1) What do you think the coming 6 months will look like and (2) what would be big negative indicators for Chainlink making it?
Why ask that now when there is no chance of going back?
Luis Cruz
You don't have enough Doritos to use wL8X8YRS's Time Machine?
Jack Martinez
I'd guess that this is a slow burn with each of the following both stopping the burn and increasing the price: >additional nodes being added to the network >data and api providers discussing openly their plans to offer services on the network >demand (rather than "what does the community want?") driven addition of data sources; sergey said over and over that the next step was to launch the network and give the scene the data they so badly needed- do it >continued integrations into whatever big tech is calling their BAAS offerings >total wildcard and who the hell knows if this is a pipe dream but consider this: the original most important proof of concept that smartcontract did was also the most basic: a bond coupon payment over existing payment rails....what oracle services do you need live to actually do that over the ETH mainnet (hint, you don't need dynamic bond rates)?
Anyone else who has thought about this more than me please chime in. I think we're in a new era of being able to see things about the project and I'm sure in retrospect it will all be obvious. What is obvious that is being missed now
Hunter Wilson
if chainlink does everything right, how long til $1000 eoy?
Brandon Bell
eoy
Carson Young
kek
Ian Phillips
thanks for your perspective fren i think its right on. i mean, sooner or later sergey has to announce whos providing those smart contract resources. Also, what do you think about him not updating whats going to happen with the rest of the supply? ive heard things like its going to incentivize nodes, but is there going to be links hes going to give away to businesses to try the network? would be nice to know, god forbid if sergey tells us any of this that secretive fuck
Lincoln Thompson
Bond payments are implied by who owns the bond on a certain date. The "market" and dynamic prices has no bearing on this. Where does an oracle come in here?
Total spitball: smart contracts automate back end processes with 5% overhead for $1tn in volume; smart contracts architecture captures 10% of that value add: 5bn base Chainlink captures half the value of that at 2.5bn base, plus speculation plus normal variation of speculation you could probably tickle that range.
How many years honestly for that? Everything goes perfectly two years everything goes to hell 10 years to never.
But if you have half a brain you will take some profits on the way up. The reason I think CL is such a great investment is that the likelihood of ending up underwater with sane marginal exit points is extremely low. It's like a Buffet asset on the downside and a startup on the upside.
Christian Martinez
Basically youd only need the eth/usd price to subtract out the operating costs if you had free banking api access....hey remind me what you can get off cl mainnet now
Very intelligent posts user, what other project(s) do you think are worthy investments besides Chainlink?
Thomas Nelson
its hard for most of us to cash out at points because we are already poor neets, its impossible for the poor to get rich lmfao im going to be like this forever huh
Liam Lee
Do you hold any LP shares? Any Celer?
Eli Howard
Didn't Sergey state that he was targeting derivatives and bonds late this year?
Nathan Martinez
tldr: token wont get past $5
Henry Jenkins
I have a hard time believing Chainlink will top out at 2.5 billion mcap, in 2017 even absolute shit projects had over 10 billion mcap. Remember, one must also factor in speculative phases, not just real world value.
Christopher White
It's very hard to be a linkie. I have fucking brainlet newlinkers screaming about the price in one ear, and in the other I have brainlet oldfag autists completely misunderstanding every post the link team makes. There are a bunch of I accurate posts in this thread but who gives a fuck just hold you idiots
think of this, in 2017 early 2018. XRP, sitting at #3, hit a market cap of 120,299,378,234. At that time and no one was using XRP. 5 years after mainnet and Ripple was still begging for banks to use XRP....sitting at #3. People pumped it on pure hype.
Chainlink with the same market cap as XRP in 2017/2018 gives LINK a price of $345. And LINK is an easy #3 overall market cap if not #2.
Every project will be going through Chainlinks oracle network without scaling issues. Think of that for one second. because of threshold signatures 1000s of transactions handled in the oracle network and only written once to the ethereum blockchain. What Chainlink just released was the holy grail of scaling.
Also, keep in mind XRP hitting that market cap was 2 years ago. Imagine the overall market cap the next bull run. Id be $1000 in 2 years is totally doable.
how t he fuck is this still being shilled after the embarrassment yesterday??? WTF???????
Mason Cox
nothing's changed
Leo Martinez
Because LINK is stting at a comfy $1 after everyone said it was gonna dump back to .25c. LINK is taking another breather before it does another 3x. Cope.
Jose Roberts
2 years ago, when Fidelity and E Trade weren't involved, when CME Futures for hedging (to make institutions more comfortable) were in their infancy with minuscule trading volumes, when State Farm and USAA weren't even considering blockchain tech for their insurance processing, etc.
Chase Wilson
>Chainlink is (ironically) now a slave to the layer two scaling solutions for the use of smart contracts in medium value applications. I would guess that's why they chose to back celer at this stage Matic also said they were working with CL
They had booths next to each other at a recent hackathon
