>random walk hypothesis
Name a bigger cope. You can't.
Random walk hypothesis
Carson Davis
Benjamin Foster
>second time seeing this thread
Seems like you're coping OP
Landon Young
I take it this is meant to imply that a randomly generated chart still shows TA indicators which is meant to prove that TA is useless since any patterns we see are just stochastic noise?
The issue with this is that trading charts ARENT random, they are proven to be the actions of people buying or selling an asset. So in order to prove your hypothesis that TA is worthless since price is a random function, you would have to prove there is no behaviour behind whether an individual buys or sells a commodity. But since we know that individuals do not buy and sell randomly we can extrapolate that groups of individuals will also not behave randomly. The real question is whether the behaviour of a large group is so complex that it cannot be accurately predicted or modelled. But your image proves nothing.
Kevin Nelson
SEETHING
Leo Morgan
I think OP means that random walk hypothesis is cope from academics who don't trade, can't beat the market and don't care to. People with no skin in the game who are coping basically.
I think the existence of places like RenTech BTFOS the entire theory of random walk hypothesis.
Isaac Butler
Veiwing price vs. time as a random walk doesn’t mean that you think it’s truly random. It’s just a strategy which, on average, does better than those who attempt to predict it. Meaning that predicting the future price of something is not possible for the vast majority.
Also, there is zero evidence that TA has ever worked better than a coin flip. It’s the silliest strategy that exists.
Joshua Adams
>It’s just a strategy which, on average, does better than those who attempt to predict it. Meaning that predicting the future price of something is not possible for the vast majority.
And that's cope.
>I cant beat the market so that means it must be random! No one could have predicted this!
Jordan Murphy
TA helps. Luck also helps. Risk management also helps. Browsing Jow Forums also helps. FA also helps.
Its a combination. Stop being an autist and focus on gains.
William Morales
I think you’ve misread. Random walk is a model. Not the actual behavior. Predictions are possible, they happen all the time. However, most people cannot predict better than the random walk.
Ian Thompson
Well, it's not exactly a cope because the distrubtion of intelligence within traders is there. Trading is essentially a sport, and for every winner, there is a loser. Having a bad strategy (TA) is worse than having no strategy at all.
Academics are right in sense that they correctly identified few trees in the forest. But you're right that they don't see the forest.