Hey

Good winds and calm waters ahead
I'm a happy camper
You know what you own, right?

Will be a truly unique time
This seems like a poor decision
ICO?
Declining price on declining volume hmmmmm

>WTF WAS THAT!!! pattern

OK time for a question: Lets say you hold a stack of link and will have fuck you money, but you want more...
What is a completely obvious new service that anyone could do that will be immediately needed in a deterministic smart contracts economy?
(extra hint: it's the kind of thing that might appeal to those without a desire to interact with others, isolation may even be an advantage...)

I ask one medium difficulty question and biz is silent
Guess this place will never change

I'll throw some stuff at the wall then.
Custody? Third party node management/staking/pool? Node listing service/marketplace? Lending?

Smart contract insurance? Some sort of etf that represents a bunch of apis/jobs?

Delivery or prostitution

cybersecurity insurance to protect my linkies

Custody for investors who require this will still require the same criteria as it does for traditional assets, so unless you have those qualifications, not custody
Node management and staking are known and complex
Lending is a direct result of the network being functional

This is even easier and immediately valuable
With no skill set to start
Derivatives of derivatives are natural extensions of a standardized derivatives infrastructure
Just as they are in the real world
Ironically this is the closest to correct
Think about the world changing application that Sergey spoke on before chainlink was even really real

lending and staking split seems like a god tier combination

what does lending in this context mean and what is the biz model for both parties involved..

decentralized assassination market

no, i'm absolutely not joking

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May be, but requires technical knowledge
"Hacking" a contract won't exist in a decentralized deterministic world
You may be able to exploit poorly written logic but the notion of holding something hostage is not applicable

what is this pattern called?

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All inputs and outputs will be done through banking APIs for the most part
They all have KYC
An XMR payment portal might be useful, but would still require use of a node and that node would itself be trackable

Washing? Like coin tumbling or something like that sort?

Remember that trust services are basically synonymous with corruption in most of the world
If you want your contract enforced you need the good graces of the local government etc.
And you have to grease palms, thereby undermining the social fabric of the society in which you live

If there was another way, what would each side want on at least the first several iterations of their smart contracts executions?

people want to borrow link on leverage, either to speculate or hedge, and put up collateral to do so. you offer link to be borrowed with an interest based fee. they do their thing with your link and eventually return it plus the interest charged or forfeit their collateral as per contract terms. you do mostly nothing while other people pay you for the opportunity to slave away using your tokens to try to make a buck.
/jewmode/

>that node would itself be trackable
to what end though? of course there would be risk in a decentralized hitman market, but it carries a lot less than the current system.
if done properly, it would quite hard to track any of it. and of course, depending on the importance of the target (see: literal who), the police wouldn't have the resources to track the buyer down.

I think it's the "try not to think about how much money I have invested in Sergay' pattern

Matchmaker, matchmaker, make me a match?

Real world example enabled by a smart contract economy:
You are a business that spends 25k a month on some machine part
You have a business in Estonia that says they will deliver the same or better product for $10k per month
You agree and their "node" has $30k on the contract as a staking penalty

What would the Estonian parts supplier require as a trigger in the smart contract, at least for the first several iterations?

Arbiters or judges? Someone who can provide sign off or human validation? I suppose you'd need a jury of them.

>wouldn't have the resources to track the buyer down.
meant to say that they also wouldn't care. especially if we're talking about murders in already corrupt countries.

A lone pair of reputable eyes.

Winner
Take a moment to think through the actual situation:
Two parties that don't trust one another engaging in a transaction that requires at least a somewhat significant barrier to entry
So the threshold for third part verification services is not high
In other words: if someone tries to scam within a smart contract economy, they will do so at the absolute brainlet level, not understanding really what the rules they've agreed to imply
You could literally run a very profitable service simply verifying, in an anonymous fashion, that what was delivered/promised was actually executed

And there's a step further...
Tell me how to become a billionaire off this Jow Forums
Give me hope for the future

Well shit now I'm getting all misty eyed

You need a chan for verification. Anonymous arbiters pursuing jobs posted anonymously and verifying through a third party, on the blockchain.

>You could literally run a very profitable service simply verifying, in an anonymous fashion, that what was delivered/promised was actually executed

won't IoT and AI have advanced by the time we see real world use of this kind for smart contracts? they would be used for this.
doesn't seem like the kind of business a normal person could get in on, pretty sure some mega tech corp would take over that.
i'm not sure though.

In addition to the above question, think about this:

A true smart contracts economy will involve a series of participants. They include:

Producers who create the good or service
Purchasers who buy it
A smart contract execution layer that provides a decentralized layer for deterministic code
An oracle layer which interfaces the real world inputs and outputs
An arbiter of some kind which prevents first-run fraud
A storage layer that provides whatever fidelity is needed to allow for reputation and verification

The value of a smart contracts economy will be some amount higher than the current economy
The above participants will have differing amounts of value capture for this economy
Some of the layers will, over time, approach zero
Others will continue to hold their proportional value capture, and even expand it
Which ones are which?

Why not just use existing technology like RFID on a per-macrounit basis?

You're on the right track but you are making the exact mistake that every investor and every young person makes: you are overestimating short term technological progress

A vetting agency. Backed by real world reputation or money. Human oracles. What color shades are on the house at ABC street. Is x dead? Etc? I guess the machine still needs human eyes for now.

>overestimating
Am I? I personally don't see smart contracts being used in this manner for nearly a decade. I feel like we will be restricted to financial services for a while. I don't see why it's unreasonable to think IoT and AI won't explode in the next 10 years, being ready just in time for daily usage alongside smart contracts.
Just speculating here of course.

Or maybe a market place for human oracles. you could even automate the listings. Might be the first occurrence in history where computers employ humans instead of the other way around?

I would guess that you live in a first world country, and in your situation this makes sense
Best buy has no pressing reason to use a smart contract when buying laptops from HP, even if the contract amount is in the millions

But think about most of the world- if you look at economic data sets the number one predictor of societal failure to progress is preceived corruption
This makes sense practically: if you believe extra work will only be rewarded by increasing grift, there is no reason to work more than the minimum necessary

These societies will have a strong motive to use smart contracts ASAP

Yes
Remember that we are moving to a fully fluid derivatives market

Lets say you offer thrid party verification services and build your reputation
Could you not license weight and density measurements for various goods and pay for shipper API access that would allow you to verify these parameters in transit
And then sell this "data derivative" as your value add

To every transaction

>Best buy has no pressing reason to use a smart contract when buying laptops from HP, even if the contract amount is in the millions

Network effects, network effects, network effects. Once everyone starts using them (especially if third world countries do start pursuing smart contract usage more vigorously), everyone will just switch over to smart contracts.

Industry standard wasn't a joke.

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Agreed, however this is a passive change
Large legacy businesses weren't desperate to use email because they had effective communication apparatuses in place
Startups were
The whole rest of the world is about to get the keys to running effective, trustworthy businesses

On a more philosophical level this will be telling
Some believe the haves have because of happenstance
Others believe the haves are those that earn it

Once the playing field is open, there is no more excuse

China is going to be one of the early adopters of a lot of this traceability related stuff, most definitely.

>mfw
The logical conclusions of smart contracts (along with AI and IoT) seem like a scary world. I'm not sure if I'm gonna be ready for it bros...
even with all this money...

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Agreed
Any they have the most people
And they are already technolgically savvy
And they live within a profoundly corrupt society

Everyone on Jow Forums is a spoiled first worlder larping as a nazifemboipowerbottomkike
But imagine you were you in China
Like literally tens of millions of human beings are

If you could discern the order in which those things proceed, you'd possess a mental faculty far superior than displayed by any human, ever. The simple fact is that we scarcely know what will happen when smart contracts become adopted en masse. Just like how nobody could have predicted the rise of the drive-thru when the automobile was first invented. You're talking about third and fourth-order effects. Predictable in the sense that its obvious after the fact. Completely random prior to their widespread adoption.

>mfw the law of unintended consequences
god i really hope smart contracts don't make this timeline any more clown than it already is

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No person can accurately predict the future
Successful people understand this
Successful people also understand that if two parties compete the one with the plan wins
This law cuts both ways
Darknet markets may have done more to stop drug violence than any police action ever could etc.

gonna bump this interesting and rare decent link thread
reminds me of the 2017, early 2018 threads. before the reddit invasion.

can any anons think of some more business ideas? or some third/x order effects of smart contracts?

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ETH holders felt the same way the few times it dipped in the $1-10 range...

It's called the we're still up 10x in two months, zoom out, faggot.

no way, sibos will never happen again. stealth phase is over and we have real psychological barriers now. at a certain point (in my opinion ~2.80 currently) there is too much support and too many willing buyers, with not enough willing sellers. not to mention the recent wallet movement/whales accumulating.

of course we will have corrections (some large ones) on the way to the top but that's just the waves of the crypto ocean, get used to it.

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With respect to growth curves from here on out I would guess that the most likely course is everything that happened in the first few years of ETH compressed into a 6 month period
To be clear I don't think that is more than a ~40% chance
But it is the most likely of all the options
Hold on to your butts

my question is, with staking and real world use, will there ever be a *return to the mean* like this graph? I mean this is not a speculative asset as it has real world use case, unlike anything in this space.

>this is not a speculative asset as it has real world use case
this is what most dont get

look at all those top 10 coins with zero current of future use beyond trading

yep, that's why i don't like this graph but i use it just cause

but in the short term (this btc halving cycle) this is a race between fundamental value and hype/speculation.

i genuinely think hype and speculation could win out. we definitely will see staking within the next 2 years, however I don't see us handling trillions in derivatives in that period. In this case we definitely would see a crash back down, (maybe not as bad as ethereum) but then a steady moon mission with usage, staking, and scarcity

Maybe I'm wrong though.

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Bump

Do you plan on selling any at a certain price?

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i wouldn't consider ab's valuations in that pic much. first of all he said those were *very* conservative estimates.
even in a speculation-wins scenario, we could easily reach 3rd on overall mcap by the end of halving cycle, and we could see link having over 100b mcap, purely off speculation. even this is somewhat conservative.
this is quite simple when you look at all the shitcoins in the top 10 plus the fact that crypto mcap will be in the multi trillions this time around.

>Do you plan on selling any at a certain price?
I will start laddering sells eventually somewhere in the 2 digits, just enough so I can neet it up and travel, waiting for the real moon mission with adoption and staking. That's what everyone should do really. Even long term, everyone should keep part of their stack for staking gains. Better gains than putting it in any index fund and such.

dropshipping groceries

so if chainlink incorporates augur-esque functionality in addition to what they're doing you just win?

thoughts on whether China goes for a native shadowfork to retain 4IR sovereignty?

does the CCP have that much foresight? do they actually want to reduce corruption? what kinds of institutions will be critical to developing world smart contract adoption?

>dude just hold for the next two years lmao

thanks AB

These are the best points of view. You literally have no plan nor idea as to how you’re going to survive even if Link goes to $100. Pretty Pathetic you have absolutely no drive beyond hoping you can cash out a shitcoin for some unknown sum that allows you to live a trust fund baby life indefinitely. Do you know how retarded this makes you sound?

>oh yea, I’m gonna stake my link tokens and have an endless passive income source that just acts as an infinite money machine

Pull out to 3 month view and tell me what u see

Collateral?

Great thread, good comments. I just want to ask a technical question, I hold 15k LINK just so you know. As far as I know, some of the technical aspect s of the link network have not been resolved yet. Like the reputation system, like the data consensus system. My question is Do any of you have any doubt that the team can deliver ? do you guys think the oracle problem, in its nature, can be solved ?
I believe chainlink is getting adopted as the industry standard, but I fear that we may reach a technical point where it cannot advance and deliver on its promises.

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yes sell now

>Which ones are which?
I can say that the oracle layer, at least as implemented in chainlink, has a network effect that should make it more attractive for new users.

Meanwhile, the storage layer can be anything that has the necessary amount of durability for the price.

The smart contract execution layer for deterministic code probably doesn't capture much value either, since it can be easily implemented in multiple places: either in one of any of the possible storage layers (sort of like stores procedures, to which I'm sure someone has compared eth's smart contracts) or in the oracle layer that interfaces real-world IO.

Since storage and code execution don't benefit from a network effect, they can basically exist anywhere and thus will easily have their price of use go to zero as competitors arise.

>With respect to growth curves from here on out I would guess that the most likely course is everything that happened in the first few years of ETH compressed into a 6 month period
Why?

I came to the conclusion that link would go parabolic faster than eth and btc, but because of these reasons:

1. People (markets) get better at recognizing value in similar things over time. So with more exposure to cryptocurrencies and more people paying attention and understanding them now than when bitcoin or even eth launched, their value should be recognized more quickly.

2. Chainlink is very valuable.

3. Chainlink will be valuable in a visible way: everyone will see the real-world usage. Thus, even those who may not be comfortable valuing something speculative will have to acknowledge chainlink has actual, practical use, unlike bitcoin and ethereum today, which aren't really used for anything mainstream.

Did I leave out anything you would include in your six month estimate?

(Also, by 1., even if there is a "next" ChainLink, we may not be able to get in on it, as the market may be mature enough after chainlink to discover the next big thing even faster next time.)

Very interesting thread
I'm starting to piece together the implications of this new technology, and how it will change the fabric of our society at a fundamental level. We should talk about this more often on Jow Forums and brainstorm ways to leverage smart contracts into billion dollar ideas

Smart contracts are the thing which turn the gig economy from a sick joke into an actual plausible formation for economic production. Extrapolate from there.

I don’t get this nostalgia for old biz. During the bubble it was pure cancer. ‘Rate my Blockfolio’ threads and such. Begging threads. The long slog of the bear, and holding link through it all, has been awesome. This new chapter fucking rules too, we’re all in profit and the outlook is great.

It's going to be the same shit again when the run gets close to peak. Luckily we'll know when the fuck to pull out when biz is nothing but portfolio threads flexing.