If any of you guys like to make bond plays its almost time...

the fuck? that chart looks too easy.
Also what is that volatility in the fed funds in 1996-2000?

>20% gain

you can 10x in 5 years in criptoe

gtfo idiot boomie

t. self confessed boomie idiot who used to work in the city

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Bumping non crypto thread because reasons

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I am invested in crypto yes, this thread is clearly not ment for you though if you have no reason to invest in bonds.

>thinking percentage gains matter if you can predict the direction
>what is leverage
gtfo retard

>what is liquidation
gtfo retard

I would rather keep playing the shitcoin casino until then. Returns are far far better if you know what you’re doing

There’s literally never a reason to buy bonds unless you’re a geriatric

Nice OP. Now were talking....

Explain to me what the hell happend in the bond market in the last recession we had?

Normally Bonds provide an alternative to Stocks when times become uncertain about economic conditions.

But in 2008 we saw the debt bubble CRASH like no other and imo that was the market putting debt in fair value.

So how will the Debt be a safe play in the next market bust?

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>Normally Bonds provide an alternative to Stocks when times become uncertain about economic conditions.
Only if you trust the government to not fuck you over. And *newsflash* no one does that anymore.

The problem was (and still is) that U.S lead central bankers are getting the Treasury (and foreign counterparts) to federally back subprime loans (bad debt) as safe secure investments. This means that investments that would normally be risky artificially have their risk reduced and investor confidence in them raised. The problem being that corporations will then collaterize their companies value in subprime loans and when those loans go bust everything falls apart. The subprime loans during the 2008 financial crisis were primarily in the housing sector, but the practice hasn't changed and federally backed subprime loans can be found in many sectors. (This only but one method they use to interfere with the market)

This is basically another form of central planning and the government is outright lying about economic performance just like the U.S.S.R did. Now, don't get be me wrong I understand the difference. The Soviets did this in an attempt to equalize and grow the economy and modern bankers are doing it to prop up profits. Regardless of the motive the end results will be similar.

Anywho OP, what are your thoughts on the Eurozone? Do you think they'll fall further into deflation before our crisis starts or will America take the plunge first?

I should amend this post. Fully disclosing here. I'm a left market anarchist and don't think all central planning is always bad. Just mostly bad most of the time. For example, I'm a fan of sovereign wealth funds as they work with the market more than against it but are still a publically owned asset that disenpowers both the state and megacorps alike while empowering the people. Didn't want anyone misreading my post as a justification for modern capitalist economics.

what's a left market anarchist

c4ss.org/market-anarchism-faq-2

tl:dr I believe in the virtue of the market without capitalism

Nice, your on the ball user. I think the euro is going to kick start it honestly, its a big game of hot potato right now for where capitals going to flow out first, I think they pulled the trigger far too early for negative debt and its going to bite them in the ass. I mean look at Greece's bonds, a country that went bankrupt not even 7 years ago already has 10 year yields yielding as if it was more risk free than US housing, euro is going to get fucking rekt honestly. Im anticipating wether China has a trick up its sleeve to have capital flow back in but it looks like they might not, although they have a ton of room for restructuring looking at the bank take over that happened last month whereas US banks bassically would have to raid senior debtors at this point.

I agree with soverign wealth funds by the way, theres one in Norway that fascinates me honestly. It holds like 2% of all equitys in the first world, its economic and political weight is interesting to look at. They want to move more into energy, renewables in particular right now.

Thats a very real risk and your right. Thats the lie that our system is built on, that treasuries are 0 risk when in fact they are not. If bonds crash though, and I personally do think we will see a huge bonds crash that wipes out our economic system, then we are all fucked though. This post is a point im making from within the framework of the game however, assuming bonds stay 0 risk the smart bet right now is to wait until 2.5 yield is reached then buy in, but yes I personally invest in crypto because I do have good reason to believe its the only hedge against a collapse like that which is likely. But within the framework of the game this is what you should do because we can only assume the game will continue, position yourself to be hedged from all sides for it but dont assume it will happen.

retard hes basically telling you to short bonds

Those mirror my thoughts almost to a tee. I've been waiting for Deutsche Bank to become insolvent for a while now, but they always seem to be able to pull in more capital right at the last minute.

As for China I feel like as a last resort they could start dumping U.S debt onto the open market which while destabilizing the world economy more might prop them up a bit. Bank restructurings are a good tool too I agree. It may not be enough though, time will tell.

I'm really excited to see what comes out of the coming failure of this economic system. The optimist in me hopes it's more human centric because otherwise I don't see how we'll deal with the climate crisis. The realist in me sees a mix of reform in some places and rising authoritarianism in others. The pessimist in me sees a neofuedal economy arising if the multinationals maintain control but their are few jobs for a sustained period of time.

Incoming crash when? Just before the next presidential election?

My sides

I'm not a prediction man in the short to meduim term because predictions in those timeframes are very difficult to make with any accuracy. With that said. I think a crash in America specifically is unlikely until after the election because it would make Trump look bad if it happened before. His administration, like any other administration will do their best to prop up the economy until the election is over.

I also don't think collapse is always an event, it is often a process. We won't wake up to a completely broken economic system. The recessions will get worse on average, maybe the next one will be a proper depression or panic. As they get worse society will change in response to them and we probably won't know the change is complete until it has already come to pass.

Wow, that's really amazing! Can I do a 300X with that like I can with Chainlink?

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