Let's start an actual, non-meme, technical analysis thread. Feel free to contribute and critique. Frankly, i'm annoyed by how little quality threads there are on anything actually worthwhile and informative compared to the threads that were around in 2016-2017. Make Jow Forums profitable again.
Here are the tools I use: >Bollinger Bands (50 and 200 lengths) >Support and Resistance >BTC price overlay >MACD >Highest timeframe to lowest timeframe analysis
>taking requests for any chart available on TradingView
I'll explain my process before I start. This process is basically a copy of principles and ideas Mark Whistlers - Macro to Micro and some from Anna Coulling - Volume Price Analysis. Both of which were really fucking helpful in understanding the true nature of markets
>Open 4 time frames, ideally on the same chart, but as long as you can cross reference quickly it's fine too. >Weekly > Daily > 4h > 1h > 15m > 5m > 1m >Load up 50 and 200 length Bollinger Bands (type in triple bollinger bands from users, it'll save 2 indicator spaces) >Change the standard deviation multipliers to 1.25, 2.2 and 3.2. These will cover most of the data as long as you have a high resolution time frame open >Something to understand, a bollinger band measures the volatility of the distribution of price >The bollinger band MEAN is where price will revert to IF, and ONLY IF there isn't any clear guidance as to what price will do next. >The 1.25 multipliers can be considered as where price is contained while moving laterally and can be considered as the strongest support/resistance as long as there is certainty in which direction price is going >The 2.2 multipliers, above and below, can be thought of as the support/resistance of price when they are trending or trading laterally and you're expecting a bearish or bullish move >The 3.2 multipliers are really used as the containers for price, price rarely should exceed the 3.2 standard deviation ON THE HIGHEST TIME FRAME POSSIBLE >The MEAN is where the most uncertainty lies, it's where volatility of the price range collapses if the market participants (that's us and the 'big money') are unsure of where price is headed to next >The 2.2 - 3.2 range is where 'expectations of price trending in that direction' are aligned among all market participants >We've been erroneously taught that price trading beyond the 2.2 - 3.2 multipliers/standard deviations are where the 'anomalies' are, in reality this is where the senitment of bull or bear is highest
Brandon Stewart
Just to prove I ain't bullshittin', i'll use the chart of BTC, first using the 50 period bollinger band on the Monthly chart, and then the 200 period bollinger band on the Weekly chart for a slightly clearer picture.
On the Monthly chart for BTC (using Bitstamp because it has the largest time period available). 1. Notice how the slightest breach of the upper 2.2 mean caused the subsequent candle for the next month to be so narrow and tight. The big fish are looking for any excuse to push a bear or bull trend, especially if they know that the data is visible for everyone to see and make the same judgement. 2. Following that, price trended above the 2.2 multiplier for around 11 months which is where we saw the bull run up to 20k. Not bad considering just by using one indicator you could have bought the confirmation around ($900-1500) that price was definitely staying above the 2.2 multiplier. 3. Price around then was trading above the 3.2 multiplier, which is usually where people are looking to sell as they assume that 'the reversal is coming'. Realistically it's more of a test to see if the 2.2 multiplier will hold for a further bull market. Unsurprisingly, the candle at number 3 was short and narrow for sure, but it breached ALL the way down to nearly the 1.25 multiplier. People were uncertain what price was going to do next. 4. Following the uncertain period, price failed to close above the 2.2 for 3 months, a sure sign that price was definitely uncertain, and following that we saw the first breach of the wick touching the 1.25 multiplier for 17 MONTHS. 5. For the following 2 months or so, price desperately tried to stay above the 1.25 multiplier, but it seems like the writing was on the wall, it had been breached 3 times already, and was surely headed for the mean as that's where price heads when uncertainty prevails over 'muh bull or muh bear' market. I'm even sure that if we scanned the archives of Jow Forums we'd see the most pink wojaks between 4-5
Brayden Jones
6. Of course, price then headed to the mean, where uncertainty is hashed out between market participants and the future is decided whether to drop down below to the lower 1.25 or go back up to the upper 1.25 multiplier as they're the next obvious and strongest points of support/resistance. Notice how price not once even breached the MEAN, maybe only briefly touching it with the candle wick. 7. Here we are in present day (near enough), May of 2019 saw prices blow straight past the 1.25 multiplier, probably indicating that this level could hold for the relative short term as we try and test the upper 2.2 multiplier. But with no signifcant actual candle closes above the 2.2 multiplier in the last 2 months, for now we move sideways between the upper 1.25 and upper 2.2 multipliers.
Now we'll look at the Weekly view with the 200 period bollinger band for a slightly closer look.
1. Price has for the first time, breached the upper 2.2 multiplier, this is possibly the sign market participants were waiting for, but wasn't really confirmed until March - May 2017 where we were still testing if the 2.2 was a viable benchmark to hold, if it hadn't have been, you could be sure that price would have dumped further and even touched the 1.25 multiplier, but it didn't at all, closing and wicking well above the 1.25 multiplier. May was when the real volume came in.
2. Just before the '2' there was a significant dump from 2.5k back down to 1.75k, but AGAIN, not breaching the 2.2 multiplier at all. Probably indicates that the expectation for a bull market is still there, so no need for the long term short YET. Just after the '2' the price bounced directly off of the 3.2 multiplier, clear indication price is still trending bullish.
3. Here's where we see the decline from 20k, for 2 weeks directly under the '3' price closed under the 2.2, even wicking at the 1.25 multiplier. Price tried to react and stay above the 2.2 for the next couple of weeks, but failed with wide spread candles indicating volatility was prevailing and price wasn't obviously moving one way or the other with conviction.
4. This area would have been good for a short term long, just as the price was looking to see if it could actually hold the 1.25 multiplier and then break into another bull trend if it convincingly broke above the 2.2 multiplier. It didn't of course and price and participants reacted by dumping it back down to the 1.25, but truly back down to the mean which is where UNCERTAINTY IS MOST PREVELANT.
5. Another short term attempt at rallying back past the 1.25 - 2.2 range, which failed, it should have been somewhat obvious that price might be returning to the mean based on #4, but I guess this was the last attempt to try and hold the 1.25 multiplier.
6. Price reverts to EXACTLY THE MEAN, doesn't breach it, doesnt wick beyond it, doesn't fuck around. It was a temporary (relatively speaking) pullback to decide the future of the price. Pretty good for just using ONE INDICATOR and some knowledge of volume, if you notice also thats where the volume started picking up, price had been uncertain for so long, that participants stepped in and took charge of the situation, they chose to BUY instead of to DUMP.
7. Where we are currently, price convincingly closing above the 1.25 multiplier, now testing the 2.2 multiplier. No significant closes yet above the 2.2 multiplier, but the latest Weekly candle shows only a wick down to the 1.25 multiplier.
Ian Foster
Hello fren, you could read the two books I recommended:
Mark Whistler - Macro to Micro Anna Coulling - Volume Price Analysis
I suggest making notes and looking at your own examples along side theirs in real time. Hopefully the examples and information here I've provided are a good start.
Do you have any specific other questions? Or a coin you'd like me look at weary bagholder fren?
James Collins
I understand that most people aren't looking to make trades once a year and then holding it out for the right time to exit/enter. I'm not like that either. BUT it's important to understand the larger picture before you even start to consider the smaller timeframes like Daily all the way down to 15m. If you can understand how price is expected to move in the next MONTH or even WEEK you know roughly where price will stall and be supported at. Pretty good information for someone looking to trade smaller time frames if you ask me.
Grayson Watson
Also a clear understanding of how markets work would be a good start, look up 'institutional order flow' and how 'static/dynamic support and resistances' work.
