Here's how I see things. The US ended a long term debt cycle in 08, 11 years later there's been no deleveraging, the debt composition has just shifted from being heavy financial to heavier corporate and government. Interest rate and quantitative easing monetary polices, even according to many in the mainstream, have become ineffective. The official funded national debt is just the tip of the ice berg, there's state and local but more ominously a $126 trillion in unfunded liabilities that accounts for over 600% of gdp that will have to be over the coming decades, but instead of shrinking these numbers are not only increasing but accelerating. There is also now over $9 trillion in corp debt and a third of the russel 2k are zombie companies. This is also at a time when foreigners are not only selling treasuries but are making progress in replacing the dollar standard. Decreasing demand for treasury bonds abroad will make financing multi-trillion dollar deficits nearly impossible during a recession. Currently there is negative divergence between the broad stock market indices and their ppo's. Leading indicators such as transports, the yield curve, citi group year over year, bottoming action in unemployment, increasing layoffs, and manufacturing pmi's are all flashing red. This is on top of a political situation that consists of a pro-debt pro easy money republican president being challenged by open socialists advocating money printing to fund programs such as ubi, universal health care, mmt, etc.. This is why I believe the US is in for an inflationary and ugly deleveraging. So I have call options about six months out on a small gold minor. Am I in an echo chamber?
The Coming Recession
i opened a ray dalio thread here you are definitly wrong at one point, at least for the euro zone, corporate debt is at an all time low which is a bad thing because it means they don't need money to invest.
post war booms were always carried by corporate debt for investing (which is good debt). this also allowed the other parties (government and the people) to gain wealth. now it's the exact opposite.
your completely right, but this is biz, so youll get 4 replies
which gold miner? is it a junior?
important threads like these need more attention. this is the real world, not a bunch of digital fagcoins that will disappear if the economy crashes
Checked but I’m posting just to make your prediction wrong kek
I'm not sure what call option is since I never really delved into the central bank owned stock markets. Do they pay you in physical gold if you "win"? I'm all in on crypto, crypto marketplaces like orion and physical gold. I've been interested in investing in miners but all I could find were these fiat contracts that will make me a zimbabwe style millionaire when the crash comes.
>implying doomer faggots have any ties to reality
>>/x/
You are aware the Merkel is stroking out on a daily basis, "right wing" parties are winning elections everywhere and Deutsche bank/The Euro is collapsing?
Solid rational for a crash at some point which would justify pulling out into cash,
Not a solid rational for buying 6-month gold calls.
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. If this market has lasted 11 years it can very feasibly make it another 6 months or couple years before crashing. I would be focusing on derisking and getting into cash/ long term store of value holds instead of time preferential derivatives of stores of value.
Also yield curve inversion signal a recession but that recession is tyically preceded by a new ATH before the drop, so you might get BTFO.
>buy paper gold goys
Don’t feed the beast
Problem with the gold calls is that you’re trying to time the market.
If the crash happens on month 7 you’re uncovered.
As there is no precise date for this scenario to unfold I’d argue that the option strategy alone ain’t the wisest. It can wield you mad gains if you’re lucky but that’s it. Perhaps a mix between direct gold and options (if you wanna gamble for that juicy upside). Or if it’s a hedge against your other investments.
In the second paragraph I explain that the issue isn't buying gold, the issue is buying a gold derived asset with a 6 month preferential time frame.
Both physical and paper gold are preferable to this as in each case you are purchasing the underlying asset instead of a derivative.
That a crash is inevitable is a sure thing.
That it will come soon or within the next 2 years is not.
THIS. How can they be thinking about lowering the federal funds rate right now? Isn't this shit way overheated? Isn't this the exact period of time, approximately 10 years from the last major recession that we should get another one?
>Longest period of economic growth in history
>Record low unemployment
>DJIA hits 27k aka all-time high (n-nothing like when it hit 14k in october 2007, r-right guys?)
>Gold rising
>Silver rising
>BTC rising
>none of this is suspicious at all
I already have 10k in physical gold and silver but what am I supposed to do with my 401k? Stocks in USD?
If the dollar goes tits up like (((schiff))) says then CDs and government bonds cant save you. Do I go international? Are europoors even safe?
>printing money to finance ubi
Why do you capitalists lie about everything?
Buying options is really dumb actually, people never get the timing right on these things bud. If you truly believe in massive inflation, you would want to get your hands on as much debt as possible. Buy up some cheap land somewhere, gold, and just ride the storm out. Pay them their money back in twenty years when it’s worth half as much
Has anybody read The Breaking Point? It was released in 2016 between brexit and elections, from the same guy who wrote The Sovereign Individual.
Probably the main point of the book is that compounding debt is an arithmetic operation limited by nothing, however that debt is a claim on future energy and that is limited by the biophysical reality we live in. And apparently our EROEI (energy returns on energy invested) have been radically declining in the last 50 years, because we have drained all the easy to extract deposits of fossil fuels, which amount to 80% of our energy supply. Which means those claims on future energy cannot be satisfied.
To cut it short, the guy says we are heading for a destruction of money and debt on a massive scale, most likely in a deflationary crisis (credit evaporating). But he also leaves a small possibility for hyperinflation in case the central bankers get crazy and just start printing banknotes like motherfuckers (think helicopter money). Either way he recommends loading up on physical gold. Interestingly, he only mentions bitcoin twice in this book, despite literally predicting its invention 12 years before the first block was mined.
If EROEI were the sole determinant of economic expansion, every single river and creek would be dammed to produce power because hydro is the most return on investment by several orders of magnitude. He's right in that debt is effectively a claim on future energy expenditure, and I assume he grasps that the economy is an energy system. But EROEI is only relevant in a world where all energy efficiency gains have already been made, which doesn't fit our world even a little bit. For so long as humans can maintain or increase output while reducing energy in, EROEI is a retard metric.
I will expand a little bit on what he wrote.
Yes you can decouple the economy growth from energy inputs to some degree by gaining efficiency and moving towards service/digital economy. But even that has limits because each human has only 24 hours a day to consume those services and efficiency gains are also physically limited.
He wrote in the book that our energy consumption per capita has been declining since 2000 and that only 20% of that decline can be accounted for by the efficiency gains. E.g. millenials don't drive cars as much, because they simply cannot afford it.
He doesn't know it, but he's talking about the impact of population decline on the economy. Which is true, there will be a large global decline in growth due to populations aging out and younger people being priced out of having kids.
kek. this is a very good point when considering gold as a hedge rather than a speculative short term play or something not tied to a currency collapse. it's the same conundrum that one would be in shorting bitcoin on bitfinex if bitcoin seized up and went to zero.