Anons we're at a market cycle top.
This bubble will blow like every time before.
The Fed is going to starting to cut rates soon.
Global debt is 300 times global GDP.
What's going to cause the next Minsky moment?
What black swan event could cause markets to finally crash?
I am keeping an eye on Deutsche Bank. I think they are going to be the cause of the domino effect. Could be a lot of things, but I am watching them more closely.
italy will leave the euro zone, everything is going to start there
hard brexit
Deutsche Bank
car loans
student loans
property loans
I heard that the debt of developing countries is going to start it. How accurate is this?
eh just bail it
print more dollars
>Global debt is 300 times global GDP.
no it ain't
Will not work this time. They have already said if it happens this time around we are fucked as far as printing and monetary easing goes.
Buy silver, gold and bsv
Tick tock, tick tock...
usdebtclock.org
economist.com
WWW3:
North Korea's nukes.
Iran hijacking oil tankers and blocking the Persian Gulf.
the ECB will print whatever it takes to bail them out, not a chance DB is going to bring this down
in % of gdp it is the highest in developed countries
not true. Most developing countries are better at debt servicing than developed
ALL THE BUBBLES OP
No, it will definitely work. The question becomes - at what cost?
The world's markets have been flirting with dangerous monetary policies for the last 30 years.
Take, for example, NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES. Look at the ECB, look at the BoJ. They're so desperate to prop their systems up that they had to start PAYING PEOPLE TO BORROW MONEY. The whole system is so reliant on overleveraged credit that the policy wonks just overleverage it more to solve for any cyclical speedbumps.
Now that doesn't necessarily mean that the whole thing will explode now in this market cycle. The US Fed has never played with negative interest rates yet, but probably will in the event of a severe contraction. That alone implies to me that we have at least one more macro market cycle until the whole thing unravels.
This.
is it really worth trying to play this final cycle?
I'm black pilled and probably going to invest in land and pepper shit even if the collapse is a decade away
in the meantime I'm mostly in BTC hedged in gold/silver/some stocks
Actually true
Ok boys.
Im 50/50 in crypto and stocks with my entire fucking networth. I literally have only a few hundred bucks on my bank account.
I agree with you OP, i have a feeling that a financial crisis is coming. No - i know a financial crisis will come. I just dont know when. It could take years from now on.
Im on the edge of selling all my stocks and buy gold with it, im in huge profit with my stocks. I dont want to see all my gains vanish into thin air.
Pls frens, what should i do?
I almost sold all my stocks and bought more btc with it when it was at 4k$, but i was too cautious. Imo its now too risky to buy more BTC since we could easily drop 50% or more, but who knows? Maybe we moon to 100k$ or more. But i dont want to be 100% in crypto.
Thanks in advance for your advise boys.
passive investment (aka buying index funds) is going to blow everything up. the prevailing wisdom of this bubble cycle is " you can't lose if you buy the index", just like "you can't lose if you buy real estate" last time around. this line of thinking has created perverse incentives for all public companies, hence the buyback epidemic. additionally it's created a fragile environment for alpha because there's little to be gained by having to actually compete for investment when you have a never-ending stream of dumb money rolling in buying indexes indiscriminately. as it currently stands, most people who invest don't actually know how their holdings are allocated because everyone is buying everything in a roughly similar distribution. as soon as there's a rumble in the market, everyone is going to start selling these allocations en masse. what happens when everyone begins selling everything simultaneously? you do the math. all it takes for everything to come tumbling down is a change in sentiment.
For most people, the 2008 crisis not only hasn't ended, but things have gotten even worse.
>passive investment
NEET detected
Also, australian houses prices are in a huge bubble since 2000!!! Never crashed in 08 because the GFC wasnt affected here, debt is at its all time high and gold is $2000 per oz and our exchange rate is tanking !!! About time we have a crash
There are australian ecomiats saying gold will easy reach $20k USD per oz, when DB Goes down!!!
based I have like 18 or 19 oz of gold
although if it goes to 20k per ounce you can literally pan random river bed is the west and make several times minimum wage
gold's inflation percentage is dependent on price
im getting nervous. my grandma told me to buy gold today. even she knows something ain't right.
the market never recovered from 2008
fed interest rates are being cut tomorrow so it's official our economy is screwed and options to fix it are limited
but don't be too worried, even in total shitholes like Venezuela if you have money you have access to nice markets and food
when crisis will the crypto will grow up or down ?
i fear of dump '=\
people who are leveraged and lose their jobs and money in the stock market will sell crypto to pay off loans an debts
in 2008 gold went down initially then skyrocketed I can see something similar happening
no crash is like the other
someone didn't read my post
I just pulled out of the market and bought a cabin in the woods. I plan on growing food as well as hunting next year. My net worth is now nearly entirely crypto and real estate.
Was this a good or bad move in your opinion?
hm... you want to say need to sell before crisis and buy in crisis the crypto.
the crypto is my cash for black days aka crisis or cancer
real estate is the one thing the government will tax for sure once it needs money. and i dont mean the stuff you pay right now already.
sure that would be smart
I just see a lot of people getting taken and needing to sell but maybe not
crypto investors are pretty in tune to the failures of traditional markets
thankfully due to bitcoin's success I have no debts so I'll have no reason to sell unless I decide to diversify
we'll see
it hard to sell. you dont when it will pump or dumb, im not billionaire
you goys need too look at the upside: CHEAP VACATIONS IN EUROPE!!
I'd love to stop by Cyprus or Ibiza during full on Eurodepression.
Caitlyn Jenner transitions a second time
I could see this
>the prevailing wisdom of this bubble cycle is " you can't lose if you buy the index", just like "you can't lose if you buy real estate"
I have never thought of that before, and it's been in front of my face the whole time.. That's a pretty excellent insight user.
So if that's the case, I'm betting regular purchases of out of the money index puts are going to be pretty profitable if done over the right timeframe.
it's like the same damn thing as CMOs; you only need the small caps to start tumbling down.. then when enough cards fall over it pulls down the whole house.
more than a start it will be a consequence of the coming crisis, italy will never leave as of now, these piece of shit Eu puppets destroyed internal demand and now italy it’s just doing export, we are like addicted to Eu market right now, they are trying to make life harder in case of italexit, but yea at some point italy will have no choice
stock broker here. saw a $2MM boomerfolio stacked 100% with precious metal ETFs. had to argue with back office to vet a platinum ETF.
Not gonna happen, Kim is fucking right now a beautiful harem of North Korean pussies, he actually do not give a shit about starting a war with us and getting nuked
What do you do if you're a wagie 18 year old zoomer, too young and too poor to play the investing games, and you dont want your family w/ future kids to get rekt by the coming crisis? Is there anything you can do? I mean fuck, I'm saving just to buy a car right now
tell your parents to move their money into precious metals, bonds, defensive stocks, and BTC. Then watch as they laugh you out of the room.
They have no money, they're welfare queens. I've recently moved out. Theres not really any friends or extended family with the kind of money to create financial security that way - am I best off stockpiling canned food with my leftover money?
Depends. Can you defend your cabin?
Not at the moment. It's too early. Go with the flow. Buy the fucking dip, etc. Watch for the signs that a collapse is a short-term possibility, and take action then.
I have guns too.
Well, what the fuck do I do at the end of the next cycle then...
What do you think of risk-parity
I love you fags who move to cabins who think you’re so superior to people who don’t.
Tell me fagfots, what are you going to do in the woods alone? Live a little bit longer than the rest of humanity? Raise a shittt family with a 5/10 slampig produced this this diseased culture? Value survival at all costs?
You’re unironicallt worse than most NPCs since they have no misplaced pretense of superiority
Yeah I’m sure you fagfots who went to the range once or twice will be able to defend your shitty cabin against roving bands of armed and experienced militias in an apocalyptic scenario.
The absolute delusion of you subhuman kuks
Nope nothing kikes won't let it happen they will do whatever it takes
This. We have at least one last crisis before the big one
they will let the market collapse ~6-12 months before 2020 elections. Trump will not be reelected
Honestly the U.S. is fine at this point. Anyone we owe money to will be killed, invaded and controlled entirely if need be. The CIA/Military industrial complex will keep this show going for quite some time.
u dont metal, place it in dividend stocks
Fucking THIS finally someone with a fucking brain. It will be a controlled demolition that will remove trump from power while still maintaining bankers power.
Having friends like your irl might have preserved my sanity a bit
the theory is sound but it really depends where you're allocated and the nature of the market downturn. could be like playing russian roulette if your diversification is based on "tried and true" strategies without critical evaluation of current market conditions.
How often should one rebalance? My finance friends told me about it so I don’t really know the specifics
If you haven't noticed already but Trump is already fully under the control of the kikes. They don't give a flying fuck if he is relected because Kushner and his shabbos goy daughter are in the white house running everything.
You all have very cold takes on the issue.
the only way it will ever happen is if there is some kind of shit with the banks giving out housing loans and the kikes getting to greedy. Its going to take awhile for this sort of shit to happen kikes saw what happened when they got to greedy they have to forget about it a little before it happens again. Also they obviously know that if a collapse were to happen jews would be targeted more then ever before. Economic collapse will only accelerate the anti-semitism you are seeing now. Kind of ironic that we are slowly seeing it already. We are in the collapse now just its happening slowly.
this nigger is going to die
Everyone's looking at - and thus preparing for - Deutschebank. Black swan events are often occluded by perceptual blind spots that only autists lack. That said, here's my top picks:
>Italian minibot
>The Siege of Hong Kong being livestreamed to every person with an internet connection
>The Big One popping off in California
>Q is real
Your best option is to join the military. Sure the pay will be shit when the recession comes, but as long as you pick a support role (something not on the front lines) you'll be alive.
Wrong guy man
You pol fags are so fucking cringe. No dumbfuck YOU have the cold take. God fucking dammit I wish I could genocide retards like you from the internet and our species.
Just because trump supports Israel doesn’t mean he supports the Marxist Jews who control the west and the petrodollar system.
“Bbut Hurr durr rheyre all jews and all on the same page! I’m an incel polcuck and I need to blame the Jews for all my problems”
Want to know how I know you have
1. Never been to Israel and spoken to Israeli extremists and
2. Had Ashkenazi jew friends in the west?
Because you have no fucking clue what the duck is going on and can’t separate your own incel cope from the truth. Now kys
He isn't wrong the government will come for you when its on its way out. People who think hur dur GOLD SILVER bullshit don't realize that the government will be upheld by people without anything to lose. Think of the president as a warlord or region has its own specific government. They will come to your shitty cabin and kill you if you dont give them what they want. Doesnt matter where you live.
I would have but cant due to moral issues with it, guess I'm choosing suffering
And btw this is not a defense of either, I hate them both. But there is a big big fucking difference between supporting religious Jews in Israel and then cow-tailing to the deepstate/banning cartel agenda
They won't get the chance to pull the economy out from under Trump. They will try, but Trump has a...trump card.
Hurr durr muh moral values.
Castrate yourself now you weak bitch, you don’t deserve to survive anyways
>moral issues
oh you're a libcuck you were doomed from the start
He has no card you fukking idiot. The fed will reduce their balance sheet as they are continuing to do so until something snaps. And when it does trump will be fukt since none of the plebs voting understand what the fuck the federal reserve is. And he will be voted out
Nothing is going to collapse. The fundamentals are actually pretty sound. I know you watched The Big Short and are now a huge expert, but step off the ledge. Periods of slow growth are a function of the global economic order and always have been.
Here’s your ((You)) dumbfuck. Holy fuck at how low iq you faggots are. Just fucking kill yourselves
>Just because trump supports Israel doesn’t mean
Its not just his support of israel its the fact that he has done nothing but lie through his teeth about every one of his promises.
Here is a big ass list for you:
youtu.be
>doesn’t mean he supports the Marxist Jews who control the west and the petrodollar system.
You really don't know do you.
>marxist jews
LOL biggest joke ive ever heard. Globalist jews and zionist jews you dumb shit. Both are terrible.
All jews including YOU are back stabbing scum.
i dont think the people who moved to the cabin is worried about the government, they worried of the starving many. Generally it will take a while for normies to get to them. I guess you can call them preppers.
this is not only about the kikes. there are other players around (chinese, big corps, democrats and other people of the establishment) who will bring down trump.
None of your wingnut conspiracies hold any water. I can tell by your prose you're another mentally ill LINK hodler that's teetering on the edge of roping.
>he watches jew shows
Total bullshit, Japan is going to start the shitstorm and then Mexico will buy a wall... to keep burgers out.
This guy gets it. Everything about this cycle hinges on that being the common wisdom.
Plus, index buyers and their "rock-solid 8% YOY returns" fucking murdered the bond market by dropping the demand for it. Look at boomer portfolio allocations on average - they're like 70% equities and 30% bonds. Retarded given how old they are. Fuckers will be living on sawdust and cat food in "retirement" because of this shit.
With the bond market murdered and the Fed's ZIRP environment, money looking for actual returns had to turn to silly speculative investments - aka venture capital. Bonds weren't paying shit, so maybe investing in 100 shitty startups and landing a "unicorn" would make for a real return on capital. Seriously, people looking to make money had to bet the farm on probabilistic investments because there was no stable lending market to get easy returns from, outside of Treasuries. That led to the funding of Ubers and Lyfts and other never-profitable enterprises, who - in a beautiful, karmic act of index-buyer-fucking - will soon become part of those index portfolios.
And no one has noticed this erosion of the financial markets' foundation. Consider that at least half of that venture capital money invested in dumb startups got spent on products made by Big Tech - suddenly it's easy to explain their meteoric share price growth in the last decade. When you're trying to build the "Uber for Toilets," you start paying for Amazon Web Services, Facebook Ads, Google Ads, Apple MacBooks, Microsoft Office, etc. Index buyers benefited from the insanity, because Big Tech's growth compensated fully for the mediocre growth everywhere else in the economy, as the buyback race was in full swing in real industries.
Watch what happens when the last of the boomers retire in 2022. They'll start selling their equities, and the financially crippled millennial generation will not have the money to buy them. Huge sell pressure across all industries. Chaos.
You don’t need to convince me he hasn’t made good on his promises you fucking stupid piece of festering human shit. He lies because he’s a delusional shameless self promoting narcissist. You retards think he’s playing some 4d chess with a hidden agenda? LMAO the absolute state of you mouth breathers
Globalist jews are atheist marxists who cope with their subhumanity through marxism and seeking to establish a socialist utopia. They in general are at best slightly supporting of Israel and at worst actively countering its agenda. You have literally no clue why you’re talking about because for you it’s all autistic online knowledge from fellow incel mouthbreathers egging each other on to cope with your inceldom—you have never actively interacted with the sorts of Jews you’re discussing. The truth is that what’s actually going on is much more complex than your cope has you believe
Lmao. Yeah keep coping polcuck. I’m not a Jew, I hate jews, and I actually have extensive experience interacting them with irl, something an incel like you who is looking for someone to blame for his faps to Jew porn in his moms basement has no fuckingclue about
Little ID, big truth
The governments will be starving and they will come.
I agree but jews run it all. The people in those big corps, the democrats and establishment are run by kikes and crypto/shabbos goy.
>who will bring down trump.
they don't need to do anything. Trump is doing it himself because he has given into jews or he was already controlled by them.
not reading
Yea ok this is what we call a cyclical recession. It's probably something you've never been alive for but it's not the end of the world and only usually lasts six or so months.
Young people in their 20's are terrified of the word "recession" because most of us are only old enough to fully remember the 2008 "Great" recession.
So younger people freak the fuck out when they read that a recession is happening/will happen. Don't blame us.
Could you go into more detail about the boomers retiring aspect please?
Yes but isn't the point is that every recession only puts a bandaid over an ever widening wound? It's a crash decades in the making.
w-what happens when it finally crashes?
Because there's just no way that we get another liquidity crisis when the trillions of debt and derivatives can't be unloaded.
Yikes at this incel cope. Absolute cringe
Well it feels like every new recession will become greater and greater until we hit a real crash.
I don't know I'm not informed about this stuff. I come to Jow Forums to learn.
Culturally we're one step away from pedos becoming a recognised group. We need a crash to set things right.