Hear me out before you all call me a dumb bear, I bought between 3-5k and LINK at 20-45 cents so I've made good cash off this rally along with VIDT in March and LIT at ico (sold + rebought 6 cents). I've been a 100% bull since May and longed 5.5k up to 8.3k. with another from 8k to 12k. But, looking back at the charts, I think this is a manipulated run/suckers rally and I sold everything. Hear me out:
We touched the 61.8% within slight degree at 13.8k when looking at the top 20k to 3k bottom. The whole movement up can be looked at like a Bearish Zigzag before we have an impulse wave back down to a new low, if you even look at the volume when we dropped from 13.8k down it was 26 billion in two days. That max volume we got from the 20k drop was 6 billion (on bitmex so volume is larger). Some large players are getting ready and sharpening their knives for a dump of epic proportions. A theory I have is that banks, institutions etc know a lot of younger people are hedging with bitcoin to save against the next recession coming in like the next year. So if they know that's where all these young people etc are putting their savings, why not short it to the ground and take all their money? I'm mainly in fiat, I'm not worried if we moon as i'll just buy back in at the premium and just go like x2 or something on leverage to make up for any loses I'll miss if we do pump again. I'm not saying sell instantly, I'm just saying procedure the next 1-3 months with caution, Asuka prophecy could still be true and we go to 16k but something in my gut is saying that isn't the case. What do you guys think? Anyone else have some evidence to back this up? Or anyone want to refute it? Please share ur thoughts fellas
lmao, i dont care if im right or wrong, i really hope im right here and i can watch it collapse and buy cheap corn again as revenge for getting rekt in 2018, really wanna hear some ideas though
Anthony Campbell
Do you think 3k wasnt the bottom then?
Parker Williams
I thought it was since about 2 weeks ago and decided to think outside the box, I think there's a possibility we could have a C wave down to a new low, although I'm not sure it's highly likely since the amount of focus that's going on btc so at a fundamental analysis it very well could have been the bottom and maybe we only drop to 6-8k or so. But at the same time, given a recession coming up, we could have a massive drop just to suck everyone's savings out of it who didnt buy in at 3k and also those late buyers panic selling BTC seeing it drop and with a recession coming, those people will sell to survive in fear of losing more. If you even look at the chart of GOLD in 07, it had a massive drop during the 07-08 recession before continuing its massive rally after. I think something similar will be in play with BTC, during a recession or close to it a massive drop will occur for a year (maybe only 3-6 months since BTC has a fast time scale), followed by instant buy ups and then the true bull run.
Elijah Wood
Think of this as a suckers rally to milk people before the recession to shakeout them out before we continue higher
John Ortiz
>maybe we only drop to 6-8k Realistic scenario actually
Isaiah Howard
do we really think big players/banks are going to let the average person bypass banks and hedge against inflation this easy?
Adrian James
too realistic;won't happen
Christian Barnes
Yeah with fundamental analysis and everything BTC has going for it, I think 6-8k is more likely however I wont rule out the possibility of it going lower, even if it's only slightly possible. If there was a move though, it'll be so quick that it'll have an almost instant bounce like the end of the previous BTC bear market (it bottomed and within 14 days already went back x2).
Leo Reyes
One thing that concerns me is the halving hype as the past 2 halvings boosted the price because they occured in a bull market when the supply is locked up by whales. When the halvening happens in a bear market when there is an oversaturated supply from selling, it will just flush out the weak miners. For bitcoin to be strong, it needs strong miners that can withstand losses like any other business. Not amateurs mining out of their basement who can't pay the electricity costs amount.
Angel Cook
theyre going to kill the liquidity in bitcoin if we enter a global recession. this is where "they" will load the fuck up on weak hands. its all a scheme right now for everyone to feel euphoric again so they start buying again at 10k+ only to just bomb it to the fucking ground. and if people are too overexposed to crypto (as they are, - most people are 80% networth in crypto), they'll also have no cash reserves so the recession will fuck them harder.
Henry Powell
Yes, I'd also go for this one because a lower low would shake so many people out that there wouldn't be enough liquidity anymore to drop the bags later on
Also the BTC retrace from the last two bears is very similar percentage wise and the lowest point was reached exactly 365 after the ath which was most likely planned
1 year bear, 2 years different accumulation levels, 1 year bull, rinse and repeat
Anthony Turner
dude that's exactly what im thinking. Think of the amount of people aged 18-30 who hold mainly crypto. Once it nukes, that's their cash reserves all gone down the drain, even if it recovers say in 1-2 years they'll sell at a loss during the recession in order to have something to survive. And then Boom we moon again.
Bentley Nguyen
That's a valid point, it could be the greatest shakeout in crypto, again this is theoretical and this is the bull run rn but we'll see
Austin Powell
i was a bear until dark tether happened
btc will unironically never be below $10k again
Grayson Butler
Yeah I'm just suggesting some type of extreme wildcard scenario that is of low probability, 6-8k is most realistic and I think we'll see it if we enter a recession within the next 6-18 months maybe EOY.
Mason Myers
this sounds sensible. I'm seeing more and more people that go into debt to buy bitcoins at current prices. There are way too many brainlets in now, especially in btc.
Leo Gutierrez
>think of the amount of people 18-30 who hold mainly crypto
Jesus brainlet. You're unbelievably socially retarded. There might be 10k people in the US that hold their entire life savings in crypto, like you. You're spending too much time on the internet you fucking retard. No one buys this shit.
Easton King
Yes, I doubt that we will see BTC dominance like that ever again (ETHlet, biased)
Thomas Hall
I'm not sure if a recession will have an impact. So far crypto and "real world" indices show no correlations
Camden Anderson
I hear people in my gym, fucking barbers, Nigerian taxi men discussing bitcoin where I am.
Luke Myers
I get what you mean but when a recession hits and people lose jobs/paycuts and dont have as much saved or need to take out money from savings it will have some sort of impact, that's my opinion though that no correlation could be true when it hits.
Joseph Bennett
it will probably just go up. btc is a hedge against how fucked everything gets when you have a centralized authority. its value is correlated to how corrupt central authorities become. this is its intrinsic value. why let a greedy cabal of kikes control your money when you don't have to? the alternative isn't here yet until crypto scales but anyone that doesn't see it coming is retarded at this point.
Ryder Myers
oh god please let them push btc to under 2.5k..... the faucets paid so much better with all those coins compared to now! and I wanna buy alot more for the price..... come on btc tank to sub 2.5k and all the alts tank to almost nothing. I want more pennies on the dollar coins
Jack Rivera
Your idea is emotionally loaded. You're trading against the trend in some fantasy that all this is to fuck with millenials. But those banks, they've been in since 2013/2014/2015.There's no reason for them to go selling to fuck with one generation when their own empire could easily go belly up soon.
Brandon Ortiz
I 100% agree, I'm fully with BTC as a way to say fuck centralized authority but to think that this authority doesn't want to shakeout as many people out of it I think is unlikely. And I think a shakeout during a recession to fuck over people's cash reserves and ruin their trust in BTC as a hedge against inflation is a possibility.
Daniel Price
I think you're spot on in this.
The last couple years have seen the major global banks claim to get on board, make big hires in their "blockchain departments" (kek) and otherwise signal their involvement. Then all news sort of dies out.
My assumption is that they've been accumulating hard for a coup.
Imagine all these banks as a coalition, agreeing between one another to lock up supply until after the recession hits.
All the young individual investors like us will moon the price because we're all long. We'd see a slow yet inexorable increase in price as the market follows our legitimately bullish sentiment organically with an intensely restricted supply. The coalition keeps BTC volume high by washtrading between one another, and we eat it up. "muh prophesy!"
Then when the markets crash and the banks need to return us all to debt slavery, the washtrading stops overnight while the supply increases tenfold. Half of us lose our jobs, the other half's parents lose their jobs and can't afford NEET tendies. The reserves we thought would pay rent in hard times are worth a fraction of what we accumulated for.
Yikes. Could be a crypto apocalypse if organized right.
Strong hands, user.
Justin Lee
>Muh centralized authority Those authorities will soon be the major hubs on lightning. Get rekt. This is a bull market and we're going to 100k. Y'all didn't want to buy at 3k. To scared. Now you're all saying you hope it goes back so you can buy. Get fucked never happening. You had your chance, that chance isn't coming back.
Dominic Jackson
I'm jk with that post dw hahahah, I'm in fiat ready to jump in again if proven wrong and will just futures contract with a low lev long to make up for anything lost sitting on the side, I'm not going to short this at all I'm not an idiot just waiting it out. So you think the same people responsible for the 08 crisis wont fuck up an entire generation again? I think you underestimate their greed.
Jackson Collins
Too many want this, that's why it won't happen. Many missed their chance to buy low and the only ones who get a shake out are greedy bears.
Chase Morgan
I'm not a bear, I just like the look of Bobo, I can still see the direction for 16k in October abouts. However, I think its always best to consider both sides of the coin. And again I bought at 3-5k if you read my post. Again, don't be overly bullish as the sentiment can blind you, just consider both scenarios and act accordingly and manage your risk.
Nolan Williams
Where I am(Canada), I'm literally the only person I know who even talks about bitcoin let alone actually owns any
Austin Torres
>I think you underestimate their greed No I'm not. There's simply more upside than downside.
Mason Williams
Everyone is sniping for low prices now, nobody will wait for a 6k. It's like the time after the crash where people were hoping it will get back up until the hopes where shattered again and again to the point of fear of buying not low enough or it going to zero. Now it's in reverse.
Josiah Price
fair point and i'd agree, but again i'd just have the bearish scenario kept aside in the event of it happening and just be prepared
Juan Mitchell
We are 100% still in a bear market. Anyone buying now is a complete fool. We WILL be creating new lows, it has to happen and anyone who doesn't realize it is the dumb money.
Aaron Davis
unironically this. we still havent made a higher high... we are in a bear market until we crack 20k.
Dylan Walker
I like the thinking and pretty much agree with the OP. I think we at least see 7500- 8500 again, and I think if 6k breaks this is going to a newer low under $3k as crazy as that seems. There is no retail in this run up. Look at the google trends. Btc is going up because of whales pushing it up and the money ALREADY in the space dumping their alts for btc. There is not much NEW money coming into the space. When a recession comes, people will have to sell gold, silver, crypto, anything. It will all get hit hard. Those sitting with some cash reserves are when you will be able to scoop all assets up cheap. For me anything over 12k I lean bullish btc, and anything under that makes me think btc is bearish. Yes people say they will buy when it goes back to 6k, but once 6k is here, they will get scared to buy and say what if I can wait for 4k. It happens all the time, The people at 20k when it was falling said oh I cant wait for 10k, well 10k came and went, then at 10k people said ill buy at 6k.... When the market is falling people get scared to buy, so the best thing to do is scale in, as it is almost impossible to pick the bottom. But as much as I dislike fiat, it will pay to sit in some cash in a recession because all assets will at least briefly fall.
Adam Walker
Who cares about retail? They're supposed to buy the top. not the bottom.
Mason Thomas
Well it shows new money in not coming into the space. Are you thinking this is institutions buying? I dont think so. I think its more likely whales are just manipulating the markets higher and wash trading. Sorry but a run from 3k to 14k is just not healthy with no spurred interest even googling the term bitcoin.
