Extreme FEAR

The bitcoin fear and greed index is at all time low of 5 out of 100, reading extreme fear.

Personally, I am feeling it as well. My sentiment is lower now than it was even last November when we lost the $6k support.

Two things that are bothering me the most:
1) No new money coming in; the run-up was mostly people un-tethering and selling off alts to buy their BTC back. The run-up failed to create FOMO and there was very little media attention.

2) It seemed inevitable that we would break the recent resistances and get back to ATH. All the popular traders were pointing out the VPVR and how it's "hot air" and "price discovery" above $12k. Hope was soaring. However, unknown forces are apparently intent on keeping the price down, and with every lower high, more and more people are changing their mindset to "next time it rises, I'm selling". Now it looks like a prolonged bear market again and little chance of getting back to ATH any time soon, if ever.

The run to $13k happened too fast, IMO. Instead of slowly building momentum and a long-term uptrend, it looked like another bubble, and nobody wants to buy into another bubble and be left bagholding for yet another year.

The volume lately is pathetic as well. If we're really in a bull market, that last drop should have had massive buy volume.

They say this is the best time to buy; extreme fear and red on the charts. IDK biz, what do you think? Hard to imagine being long on BTC right now. I wouldn't be surprised at all if it tanks even deeper if/when bakkt actually launches either.

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it's normal frens , between a year before a halving btc price does 4x ALWAYS.

We already did that and there are still more than 8 months to the halvening.
So yea everyone rushed to buy a year before the halvening and now we are waiting for it(and 500k btc are still left to be created until the halvening).
So the price is going down when the volume is not buying this new mined coins.

But make no mistake , the fact that the price grew so fast also caused the mining difficulty to increase and thus miners with old asics will have to sell , this will make it harder to reach 16k but once we will pass we will be unstoppeable until 200k by late 2021.

Buy the pump sell the dump. The /biz way

I wish I shared your enthusiasm. The higher the price gets, the more money it takes to buy the supply off the books. For BTC to get that high would take a LOT of money entering. I hope you're right though.

And yeah the halving is coming up but this is a 24/7 market, and waiting 8 more months seems like an eternity after we were just given so much hope that we're in a two year bull run. For many of us who hodled throughout 2018, the idea of hodling and watching our net worth bleed out again already is not appealing. The misery was supposed to be over by now and it looks like it won't be.

But just wait, the day I sell will mark the end of the downtrend. I swear the bogs are spying on me.

>For BTC to get that high would take a LOT of money entering. I hope you're right though.

Not at all btc only needs the gold marketcap to reach 470k usd per coin.

During the last halvening the marketcap grew 75 times , if it happens again we will reach 470k by september 2021 more or less.

However as you say the ammount of money entering should be asbsurd so i don't even expect 470k but it's possible (1M is not tough until 2025).

200k is actually extremly pessimistic tough

First period 2009 to 2012(pre halving)
Available: 10,500,000 BTC (50% mined)
Price increased from : 0.1 to 31 $ (319 times growth)

Second Period 2012 to 2015 (1st halving was 11/2012)
Best Buy was a year before Halving
Available :15,750,000 (75% mined)
Price increased from : 1.85 to 1135 S (575 times Growth)

Third period 2015 to 2018 (2nd Halving was 6/2016)
Best Buy was a year before Halving
Available :18,375,000 (87.5% mined)
Price increased from : 165 to 19k S (115 times Growth)

Considering that the low value after the bubble has been 3200 usd let´s assume we grow instead of 115 times , half of that(a massive reduction in growth) , 57,5 times.

That gives us a price of 182k somewere around 2021.

And this is assuming a massive slowing down in the price increases happening between halvings.

Also bitcoin will have lower inflation than the usd and eur early next year.

Assuming it keeps with the trends and we grow let´s say 100% we are going to 320k.

But we will have lower inflation than both the usd and euro so anything could happening.

Have hope friend , in order to do 115x gains you need to have the courage risk 3x losses , the bogs have punished enough to the point that lossing half your money is probably funny due to the pink wojaks at this point.

Freedom is coming.

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> the day I sell will mark the end of the downtrend

Or the day I decide to buy the bogs will shoot the price down.

how can people be so pessimistic so close to halving in june 2020 and so far from bottom in december 2018? We're still 50% to ATH in USD. The hyperinflationary world like argentina and hong kong keep buying the dips and keeping BTC from taking more than a 30% hit

BTC is doing fucking great bro, 3x on the year. Are you talking about altcoin prices?

Those are just emotions, they don't mean much. Parties who are long term bullish have incentives to crush investor's souls, so they sell.
The facts are, we're about 2.5x since start of year. Pretty damn good.

Fun fact, if you ever bought BTC when it was under its 200 day MA, you're either break even or in profit right now.

>btc only needs the gold marketcap to reach 470k usd per coin.
>Only

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My thought

- Btc going down to 8300$ wich is the 200ma on the daily chart
- Bounce
- Going sideways with slow rise

BTC marketcap grew 75 times the last halvening event.
If it happens again we will have 2 times the gold marketcap , if it happens half of that growth we will reach gold market cap.

We are absurdly close to the gold marketcap considering that btc is only a decade old.
Sure the bigger the numbers the harder it get's but it's only 35x the marketcap of today.

And it was 116x a year ago.............. BTC will surpise everyone and keeps outperforming everything else , and next year it will have a lower inflation rate than fiat currencies.

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>QE4 is coming
>interest rates will reduce by another 100 bps soon
>fidelity are creating high grade custody solutions for family trusts, investment funds and big money
>bakkt (run by ICE, owners of NYSE) futures settled in bitcoin is going live 23/9/19 which will provide lots of liquidity


Stop just looking at price and the echo-chamber of reddit/biz/twitter. You're all being led into a bear trap. Human psychology is easy to manipulate. The future is extremely bright. bitcoin will be 50k one year from now, and 6 figures by end of 2021.

If a recession happens in the US, of course it'll shit the bed like most speculative assets, but it'll recover quickly, think of gold in 2008. Once that recovery happens, and people realise its entirely anti-fragile; having gone through at least 3 85% corrections and a recession, then we will be on our way to 7 figures, 2025-28.

This user did his numbers and research.

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>We just need 75x more money dude
>We are absurdly close to the gold marketcap considering that btc is only a decade old.

Jesus christ, the cope

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What cope?BTC has had 3 bull years and 1 bear year every since it was born.

We will surpass gold marketcap before 2025 that is sure, maybe by late 2021 depending on economical and political conditions.

You bearfags don't even did your research and will be hanging yourself in 2021 and the few ones still alive by 2023 will be buying like smart anons like are doing

The future of bobos is sad i hope that the recession happens during the halvening so btc is proven as safe asset , even if it means i will not cash out until 2025.

The future of the west depends on cryptos forcing governments and central banks to self moderate otherwise we will end up full dystopia.

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to clarify, interest rate cuts in the US will be needed to try and devalue the dollar and prevent an imminent recession.

QE4 refers to the predicted forth round of 'money printing' in the US, which will be required to get banks to keep lending. Cheap money which no one wants to hold because of shit interest rates, will flow into speculative assets, including bitcoin.

I think there will likely be big debt jubliees across many nations - governments central banks defaulting and writing off debt their government owe. This will destroy currencies, but the world debt can't keep inflating forever. Maybe after that fiscal policy will reset and become conservative, or maybe a bitcoin standard will come in, who knows.

hope so :)

What all of you don't realize is that the run from 12k to 25k will be done in mere moments.

>will flow into speculative assets, including bitcoin.

Exactly the cure of a recession will pump bitcoin and so will a recession , due to the deflation of the global economy due to the youth not buying anything due to being financially raped to pay gibs and pensions the only way out will be money printing on a repulsive scale that will pump cryptos.

In both scenarios bitcoin moons , the recession will only delay it till 2025 until a massive bullrun.

Now you are talking ,yes we are at peak clown world now ,even with low interest rates there is deflation because the youth can't buy stuff like cars , or houses and the rulers got scared and are now pushing more qe.

It's insane and there is no way out at this point.

>I think there will likely be big debt jubliees across many nations

It's already happening negative interest rates are happening in europe where pension funds are forced to buy gov bonds , they literally are forced to buy bonds that make them lose money.

>Maybe after that fiscal policy will reset and become conservative, or maybe a bitcoin standard will come in, who knows.

Bitcoin is gold 2.0 contrary to PMs that where cucked and banned for 50 years in the usa a ban on cryptos would only damage their price for a year until a bottom is found and then they would pump again , that's probably the only reason they did not banned them yet it would probe everyone that the rulers can't enforce shit and damage them more.

Regarding the reset , it's hard to know but it will happen we are not even in peak clown world the longer interest rates keep at 0% or negative the more the youth will be assraped as inflation increases in the price of things like housings or cars , i would not be suprised if we see mass suicides of people in their 30s in a few years as most milenials have been priced out of adulthood.
Boomers won't sell as their pensions are about to get fucked , it's the perfect storm.

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What's sure is that after the reset the few pockets of prosperity will be the only ones making cryptoholders to cash out , PMs are literally going to be banned again and even if they don't ban them you can't take them on planes or borders.

The few countries that become crypto friendly will get a lot of investments after the reset , the funniest thing about crypto fudders is that they don't realize that newly mined coins are always going to be sold above of inflation because the electric cost will increase with inflation.

BTC will be inmune to the coming storm and so will all the proof of work based currencies with satoshi game theory.

This is also true , the last bullrun to 14k gave a way out to those that bough in 2017 in the last week went shit went crazy and reached 19k.

Most of those people have sold in the last month and now we are clear for take off.

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I think end game is sort of known, it's just timing it, and whether it'll happen this business cycle, or the next. Either way, 10-20 years from now, the financial world will be a changed place and bitcoin should be riding high.

Re: debt jubilee. Japan own 75% of their own bonds. Next recession that'll close in on 100%, and I expect they will forgive their own debt to themselves.

checked and thanks for hopium

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>Re: debt jubilee. Japan own 75% of their own bonds. Next recession that'll close in on 100%, and I expect they will forgive their own debt to themselves.

It's irrelevant in my pov at the end , the reason they have debt is because they have too many old people and little young people.

Debt is a way of hiding that fact for a time until everyone realizes you can't pay it back.
Forgiving debt will be irrelevant if in the end you still have massive deficits and a collapsing youth.
The fact that the economies are growing at 1% with massive qe shows how fucked up things truly are.

It's not hopium if the fundamentals are true friend , you don't even realize how early you are on the crypto revolution.

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