Chicago PMI hits contraction territory in August, drops to 47.5
Consumer sentiment drops to 89.8 in August Michael Burry on current bubble:
Passive investments such as index funds and exchange-traded funds are inflating stock and bond prices in a similar way that collateralized debt obligations did for subprime mortgages more than 10 years ago, Burry told Bloomberg News in an email. When the massive inflows into passive vehicles reverse, “it will be ugly,” he said.
“Like most bubbles, the longer it goes on, the worse the crash will be,” Burry said. “This is very much like the bubble in synthetic asset-backed CDOs before the Great Financial Crisis in that price-setting in that market was not done by fundamental security-level analysis, but by massive capital flows based on Nobel-approved models of risk that proved to be untrue.”
So just trying to understand. US national debt is owned by numerous groups/people including other countries Governments as well as internally by the social security trust fund etc.
The US keeps raising the debt ceiling to borrow more, when they do this is someone just adding extra 0's to a ledger for their liabilities. Effectively increasing the volume of money i.e. increasing money supply?
Then what are the factors that make this unable to carry on?
Also how is the interest rate that the US pay for their debt calculated?
Lucas Morgan
It's all just gay astrology bs, they're timing it for the end of this year because it's their plan to ruin everyone's Christmas
James Smith
>Then what are the factors that make this unable to carry on? There are none, they'll simply crash the market on purpose. The whales often cited as evidence for the upcoming doom are just part of their game. They're in it for booze and sodomy.
Ayden Collins
The factors making this unable to carry on are when the lenders realize there’s no way we will ever be able to pay this back and they’ll stop lending to us. Also if they dump the dollar as the reserve currency the fed will be forced to raise rates in order to keep a cap on the inflation, or its either commit to hyperinflation to destroy the dollar and wipe the debts away or default. The latter will never happen so the currency will most likely be chosen to be sacrificed.
Aaron Rogers
I read somewhere that other governments are willing to buy us debt because it will keep the value of the us dollar up against their own currency, so their exports are relatively cheap to US consumers.
The governments must realise that if they asked for their money the US would have to "print" money like crazy. I guess other governments won't ask for their money for fear that the US might invade them, also some countries try to dump usd as reserve but there's that threat for them too.
I just keep being amazed, every day I wake up and nothings happened. I start doubting everything I've ever learnt, heard, etc.
Kevin Martinez
Best insurance policy in the world is gold and silver. That’s it. If you believe debt doesn’t matter than stay in stocks and the dollar. If you think the day of reckoning will one day come then commit, own silver and gold. That’s all there is to it.
Ryan Smith
Enjoy the next market all time high, retards
Robert Young
thats the reason why US T-Bonds are considered risk-free. they can always print enough money to pay everything back, hyperinflating the currency. if the dollar gets inflated that basically means that everybody who owns dollar that moment will collectively pay the US out of its debt. the dollar then would surely be dumped as reserve currency and the US would most likely crash and burn (and get bought up by chinese investors who could get in disgustingly cheap).
With all this bad fucking news why are we still not seeing cheap assets? I'm mainly referring to housing. I know I'm not the only one with cash and Bitcoin on the sidelines just waiting to scoop up some residential and multi-units. I'm getting pretty impatient as I have my eye on a few. Only see stagnation in pricing... When is this party going to fucking start?
Owen Kelly
people will want to stay in and fuck because dates will be too expensive
Jeremiah Flores
It’s because the fed is still buying stocks and bonds, keeping interest rates low and they’re going negative. They’re pulling out every card in the book to keep this party going but in the end it’s all coming down hard.
Lucas Bell
Women no longer able to pay for their own existence from bullshit made up busywork jobs will become dependant on men for financial support. Stock up on STD test kits while you still have the means of doing so
Dominic Roberts
noone is going to buy your gold and silver, and you're not going to be able to buy anything with it. don't fall for the metal jew. SHTF scenario and guns, ammo, water, food, med supplies are what matter.
Lincoln Perry
It'll come. The full brunt of the trade war won't be felt until Q1, Q2 2020 that's when you'll really start to see shit hit the fan.
Julian Price
does this mean the recession will last for twice as long this time (~6years?)?
Ethan Anderson
I didn’t say buy gold and silver in the original post. And it does matter. The CBs are hoarding it even the non Jew owned Chinese central bank, they have banned gold exports from the homeland.
Michael Cruz
This has nothing to do with Jews or anything gold and silver are money and have been for thousands of years no amount of you not believing it will change that. I bet you’re a fools gold holder.
Alexander Moore
THIS TIME IT'S DIFFIN! REEEEEEEEEEEEEE.
Dylan Stewart
It's not gonna be a recession, it'll be the great depression on steroids. Recession happens when one country goes a bit shit, not even necessarily negative economic growth, just growth not fast enough to support itself. Depression is when you have multiple economies simultaneously fucking themselves into the negatives all at once. Look at every financial crisis, look at the countries with negative interest term deposits in the preceding years. Usually it's a couple, and usually those are the only countries affected. Now look around. You'd be hard pressed to find any major economy in the world who doesn't have negative interest in their term deposits. Everything's holding everything else up, like thousands of pieces of spaghetti in a delicate lattice structure just strong enough to hold up the weight of a car. Everything's fine until one breaks. Then all the others violently, simultaneously explode. Anything with negative interest will explode. Last time it was anywhere near this bad, 200 million men signed up for a guaranteed death just because some food and getting shot was preferable to slowly starving. This is gonna make the great depression look like a fucking joke, and they're not gonna wait around for 10 fucking years to start a war to "solve" it. It'll be the shortest, greatest, economic collapse in human history. And the clock's fucking ticking.
Jacob King
got a job a year ago for exactly this eventuality. I'm hedged with lots of different income streams, lots of government benefits, savings in cash and silverchad. And now a job as well just in case. I'm more hedged than a hedge fund.
Food will be in short supply and very expensive so big juicy asses will be an extremely rare commodity. Very valuable if you can afford to keep it well fed.
Xavier Miller
more like it's their plan to get Trump out of office since he fucked up too many businesses that were depending on him being president with the trade war
Jose Sanchez
you gotta wait for the crash to begin for that to happen, we're still prepping the bear for a little bit more
Christian Butler
And you wonder why you spend your weekends alone
Nolan Jenkins
Been buying up bonds, bitcoin, and bullion. Feels good man.
Only regret is trying to short the market too soon.
Unfortunately the boomer stock market moves at a 100th of the rate crypto does so we're looking at a year before any sort of happening
But that's also fortunate because it's going to coincide with and probably fuel the bullrun/halvening
Noah Baker
It's worse than ever because we refused to take our medicine for so long. The forgotten depression of 1921 fixed itself quicker than the "Great" depression because they didn't allow policy to get in the way. Letting everything go worldwide would be great for eliminating weak dysgenics too. Probably won't happen that way though considering the USA still has more juice left than everyone else. EU and China will fall first and money will flow into the states mitigating their collapse in comparison. Then deals will start being made to revamp the the rest of the global economy before the bottom falls out of every market simultaneously.
Angel King
Bitcoin seems to shit the bed and take all the alt coins with it whenever the stock market stumbles a little. What makes you think everyone will rush to pump crypto when they are panicking and looking for stable assets to park their money in?
Tyler Myers
>Bitcoin dumps when the stock market does What exactly makes you say that?
Henry Green
z-score correlation between
BTC:BTC = 1 BTC:SPX = 0.14
fucking google it before you roll your face on the keyboard
Hudson Rodriguez
So are you going to answer or just shit all over the screen and run away? I would very much like to see the correlation between the stock market and crypto because dumbfuck boomers at work claim this and immediately change the subject when I ask as well.
Hudson Cox
DJI X bitcoin on trading view
Matthew Adams
Yup. The fed will lower rates to try and reverse the curve but it will only work short term if at all.
Dominic Murphy
Genius.
Julian Moore
>before the bottom falls out of every market simultaneously. I assumed this would happen pretty close to the start. If it only happens after a year or two of everything but the US going to shit, after 12 fucking years of everything not having recovered from the GFC and just coating, fuck me, this'll be worse than I ever thought...
Noah Torres
How long do you guess I have to pull out of the stock market before we get a great recession or depression?
Christopher Rivera
Can someone spoonfeed a retard what this pic means.
Logan Collins
>What makes you think everyone will rush to pump crypto when they are panicking and looking for stable assets to park their money in? Where do you think we are?
Nothing happens becuase the time frame is too short. You can die a natural death and shit still goes on as it is
Carter Gomez
Dope
Jordan Diaz
IMF here,
Give up your shitty cash. It's time for cashless systems so you Goys can't hide
Sebastian Fisher
Why rely on rocks as a store of value?
Connor Hall
As a child, did you place more value on your rock or some stupid piece of green paper? Problem solved. Rocks = Rockefeller.
Colton Sullivan
you can't download rock
Jace Thomas
>Passive investments such as index funds and exchange-traded funds are inflating stock and bond prices in a similar way that collateralized debt obligations did for subprime mortgages more than 10 years ago Burry here is talking about how Boomers are, I think just now as of last year, over the hump in terms of the bulk of their generation now being over 65
This means that possibly large swathes of Boomers will begin pulling their money out of retirement accounts like 401ks and IRAs which have for the last few decades been mostly invested in index funds, which in turn have essentially been buying the dip on every dip for the said last few decades
James Bennett
the generation who also made all this debt&fucked up earth
Luke Sanders
Can someone kindly explain this? Why is the max at 2% nowadays? Why is the yield so fucking low nowadays? Where did the profit go?
If I understand this megabubble correctly, the US is loaning money to pay off their other loans. What this bubble consists of is credit and with no creditors you won’t be able to loan (the creditors give credit, loans).
Do I understand this correctly guise?
Jose Ross
With no creditors the US won’t be able to load debt to pay off debt and when people eventually want their debts paid they won’t be able to, leading to economic and social unrest.
Chase James
Recession is a bullshit term.
What's really gonna happen is the US and Western Europe are gonna realize they're second world shitholes no different than Brazil or Turkey and asset prices will readjust. Don't listen to these people saying "depression" or "economic downturn" because that implies a recovery will follow. No the US will just be the Brazil of North America. It already is, however homeowners still think we're old USA so they're asking first world prices for second world real estate. It has not dawned on them yet.
Caleb White
you are a bit retarded aint u?
Ayden Myers
Fundamentally, because of declining return on energy invested.
Landon Reyes
lol why the brazil of north america? I don't get that comparison.
You saying Us/europe are just overinflated and shitholes like brazil or turkey are priced somewhat correctly?
Jonathan Morris
How do you lack so much awareness? You're on a business and investment board in a topic highlighting signs of a recession.
Sebastian Jackson
Because demographics wise we are on par with Brazil lol. Absolutely they're overinflated. It's not worth going 300k into debt to live in a neighborhood full of beans and nigs. If I want to live around a bunch of beaners why not just live in actual Mexico for a tenth of the price?
Go buy real estate when the downturn hits. I am sure Tyrone and Juan will pay a hefty amount when the market recovers. You'll make hella gain.
Bentley Wright
Housing is never going to crash again. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news lad. Real estate literally cannot ‘crash’ again. The influx of immigration and negative rates can keep the party going longer than you can wait. If I were you, I’d get something small and cheap now and pray for appreciation you can handle.
Tyler Ortiz
bump
Logan Wood
We're all going to DIE! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Brody Foster
Thred is 2 years early
Josiah Foster
it's 2 years too late it's gonna explode tomorrow
Ethan Garcia
You permadoom fucking clowns need to ditch your worthless af bonds, boomer rocks, and buttcorn and buy some stocks before you miss out on the next great bull market which is about to start
Ryan Walker
"must realize" is a retarded statement. They know that. They aren't asking for their money since we keep servicing it. They can't ask for their money anyway- that's not how most loans work.
Cooper Jones
I want to hold cash but what about the hyperinflation I want to hold bitcoin but its gonna pop if the stock market pops Bonds? Useless if hyperinflation aaah
