I just realized that once the last asics are released in 2022 due to the moore law a second halving will happen.
I mean i did the math and most of the costs of mining is in replacing the asic with a newer one , not the electricity.
And all of the sudden all miners won't need to replace their asics with newer ones due to phyisical limits.
This will literally cause a second halvening in 2022 since asics upgrades where the biggest part of the cost forcing them to sell in the game theory. Also why would they sell their newly excess income for fiat with higher inflation?
Bitcoin will literally experiences halvenings in 2020 , 2022 and 2024 , satoshi game theory will return to how it was in 2010 , not only this makes sense it also explains why coins like monero that are against asics are so valuable.
The miners are only forced to sell a little part of their income due to electricity , how btc was in it's early days with 500x gains. Now btc will return to that game theory after the last asics are created in two years.
this is ridiculous miners are mostly going off profitability and the difficulty adjustment the halving might be pushed a couple weeks forward but not 2 years that's just ridiculous
Nicholas Torres
The game theory forces miners to sell to pay electricity + upgrade asics
If they don't upgrade asics their asics eventually end up producing negative returns because best asics from other miners end up gaining more bitcoins until the old asics can't even pay their electric costs.
Satoshi game theory or monero game theory originally was based on only having the cost of electricity in the mining of coins so you see monero being stable at 70 usd or early bitcoin having 500x gains.
Once asics started an arms race you see miners selling not only for electricity but to upgrade so the supply they throwed into the market was bigger than originally intended.
But i just realized that once the moore law prevents the creation of newer asics miners will no longer be forced to sell an insane ammount of cryptos , probably 70% , since those asics will last until 2040 for all we know.
This mean that bitcoin will return to it's original game theory around 2021 or 2022 and we will se a return of the 500x of the early days.
At least that's what i think , maybe someone can refute this.
Do the math most of the mining cost is not electricity it's in the hardware upgrades and after the moore law is hit and the last asics arrive the miners will no longer be forced to sell at least 70% of the supply they throw into the market.
This will be a strongest supply shock than a halvening since halvenings only reduce their supply by 50%.
Why would miners sell their new coins if their only cost now is paying electricity ,and the hardware costs are no longer existing. The normal reason would be to gain income but bitcoin will have lower inflation than fiat so it's going to be stronger money than "real money".
It's a fucking second halvening in 2022.
Jackson Stewart
so btc is going to explode?
Jayden Thomas
a halvening means block rewards get slashed in half, it's part of the protocol. The only way to move the halvening 2 years earlier is if every 4 week difficulty period becomes 2 weeks, means hashrate will have to 2x, every 2 weeks. This is not going to happen.
I think you're having difficulty with using the right terminology for your theory, whatever it is.
Zachary Peterson
Since the miners won't sell btc for new upgrades, that means they will stop selling. That means the price will booooooom to the moon
