I just realized that once the last asics are released in 2022 due to the moore law a second halving will happen.
I mean i did the math and most of the costs of mining is in replacing the asic with a newer one , not the electricity.
And all of the sudden all miners won't need to replace their asics with newer ones due to phyisical limits.
This will literally cause a second halvening in 2022 since asics upgrades where the biggest part of the cost forcing them to sell in the game theory. Also why would they sell their newly excess income for fiat with higher inflation?
Bitcoin will literally experiences halvenings in 2020 , 2022 and 2024 , satoshi game theory will return to how it was in 2010 , not only this makes sense it also explains why coins like monero that are against asics are so valuable.
The miners are only forced to sell a little part of their income due to electricity , how btc was in it's early days with 500x gains. Now btc will return to that game theory after the last asics are created in two years.
this is ridiculous miners are mostly going off profitability and the difficulty adjustment the halving might be pushed a couple weeks forward but not 2 years that's just ridiculous
Nicholas Torres
The game theory forces miners to sell to pay electricity + upgrade asics
If they don't upgrade asics their asics eventually end up producing negative returns because best asics from other miners end up gaining more bitcoins until the old asics can't even pay their electric costs.
Satoshi game theory or monero game theory originally was based on only having the cost of electricity in the mining of coins so you see monero being stable at 70 usd or early bitcoin having 500x gains.
Once asics started an arms race you see miners selling not only for electricity but to upgrade so the supply they throwed into the market was bigger than originally intended.
But i just realized that once the moore law prevents the creation of newer asics miners will no longer be forced to sell an insane ammount of cryptos , probably 70% , since those asics will last until 2040 for all we know.
This mean that bitcoin will return to it's original game theory around 2021 or 2022 and we will se a return of the 500x of the early days.
At least that's what i think , maybe someone can refute this.
Do the math most of the mining cost is not electricity it's in the hardware upgrades and after the moore law is hit and the last asics arrive the miners will no longer be forced to sell at least 70% of the supply they throw into the market.
This will be a strongest supply shock than a halvening since halvenings only reduce their supply by 50%.
Why would miners sell their new coins if their only cost now is paying electricity ,and the hardware costs are no longer existing. The normal reason would be to gain income but bitcoin will have lower inflation than fiat so it's going to be stronger money than "real money".
It's a fucking second halvening in 2022.
Jackson Stewart
so btc is going to explode?
Jayden Thomas
a halvening means block rewards get slashed in half, it's part of the protocol. The only way to move the halvening 2 years earlier is if every 4 week difficulty period becomes 2 weeks, means hashrate will have to 2x, every 2 weeks. This is not going to happen.
I think you're having difficulty with using the right terminology for your theory, whatever it is.
Zachary Peterson
Since the miners won't sell btc for new upgrades, that means they will stop selling. That means the price will booooooom to the moon
Joshua Scott
>4 week difficulty period becomes 2 weeks, means hashrate will have to 2x, every 2 weeks. messed up the time tables a little
2 week difficulty period becomes 1 week, means hashrate will have to 2x, every 1 week.
with the jump in hashing from CPU to GPU to ASIC it still took 3 years and 11 months to reach the 1st halving ASIC started in 2012 with 128nm chips and reaching 55nm in 2013
the 2nd distribution period took 3 years and 8 months this went until 2016 and saw an ASIC of 28nm and some early 16nm
the 3rd distribution period is scheduled for 3 years and 10 months the current miner is 7nm bitmain s17
if anything I would bet never see a halving period less than 44 months again
Thomas Ortiz
>will no longer be forced to sell an insane ammount of cryptos if they're so profitable why wouldn't they sell to produce more asic?
Kayden Anderson
I dig the theory I'll think more about this
I think moore's law will make miners cheaper and more available then electricity will be more competitive and it will become a case of not all miners make money but people selling the picks and shovels do
Samuel Johnson
this, 2 years isn't possible there isn't enough cheap electricity to provide that much of an increase
I don't know but i just realized this will cause a second halvening effect mid 2022 and then you have the 2024 halvening.
You are correct in the difficulty , i am not saying that i am saying that bitcoin game theory will change
Early days it was like monero:
Miners earn btc and sell to pay electricity
Then it changed to the current one
Miners earn btc and sell to pay electricity and specially TO BUY NEW HARDWARE otherwise their asics give negative return.
After mid 2022 with the moore law creating the last asics we will revert to the old game theory
miners earn btc and sell to pay electricity.
It's going to cause a reduction in supply because miners won't be forced to sell like 70% of their income if this asics will last till 2040.
Basically the game theory will change to the point a supply shock will happen because miners won't have incentive to sell their new excess coins for fiat with higher inflation.
>You are correct in the difficulty , i am not saying that i am saying that bitcoin game theory will change Nigger I was correcting you on the terms halvening = block rewards get slashed in the protocol every ~4 years you can't just move that to 2
don't call your gay theory a halvening call it the asic turbo pump or something I can't read this reddit spacing bullshit learn to convey an opinion
That was not my point the halvening will be in 2024.
My point is that the game theory will reverse back to the 2009 game theory since miners won't ever again have to sell to upgrade hardware since there won't be any better hardware.
And miners sell 75% of their coins to pay hardware and 25% for electricity. This supply shock will be bigger than a halvening due to 3nm asics being released.
It will return to the old game theory of 1 miner 1 vote because residential electric cost will win to centralized miner farms.
Read your article they think they can do that by making bigger chips , in the case of bitcoin is irrelevant because it's the same as buying more asics , the reason miners sold to buy new asics was becasue the game theory forced them otherwise they would be no longer competititve.
Blake Lewis
Well you are right sorry it's just this will have the same effect if not higher a halvening reduced supply by 50% , this will reduce it by at least 75% , since miners won't have to sell to upgrade asics anymore.
It's going to be an even bigger supply shock.
Tyler Gonzalez
Dear god go shill somewhere else.
Jeremiah Martinez
TSMC is the main manufacture of Bitmain chips. As long as TSMC can follow the Moore's law Bitmain can follow as well.
Samuel Jones
Btc 3m by 2024
Daniel King
Youre the one worried about btc future, not i.
James Reed
But they are not saying they will follow moore law , they are saying they can gain upgrades with bigger chips , that's not relevant to bitcoin since the asic arms race was abotu smaller chips giving a bigger gain of btc for the same electricity.
That article does not mean the moore law is going to be broken only that advantages gained by smaller chips will disappear but there can be better chips with higher sizes which is irrelevant for btc since that means higher electricity and cost of those chips.
Elijah Stewart
I read that post which is why am thinking on this , it fucking makes sense , i mean may explain why monero is so worthy , their miners are not forced to sell to upgrade asics after all so it gives it a higher price , but in the case of bitcoin or ltc they do that.
I am just trying to get other people opinion on this , do someone has miners costs? I want to see how much of their cost goes to upgrade asics.
No user let me explain, what OP is alluding to is that there is a 'soft halvening' and a 'hard halvening'. The hard halvening is the literal halvening in the protocol that happens every 4 years (depending on block count), the soft halvening is just moores law which is that every 18 months we get 2x transistor count. Halvening in the sense that if transistor count doubles then, ostensibly, the asics efficiency 'halves' in relation to newer asics.
Cameron Johnson
Also a chart of bitcoin asics released would be good if someone has that. I want to know if the release of new asics is starting to take longer than before.
Brody Foster
I understand. I too would be concerned. Best of luck to you.
James Cox
If we find a spreadsheet with miners cost this theory could be explained , all we need to see is how much of their income goes to upgrade asics to get an idea of how many btc the miners dump into the market every year to upgrade asics.
if we get that we will know the supply shock that will cause reaching the moore law.
The worst of Weimar Republic was 1921-1923 and TPTB love recurrencies ;)
Aiden Hernandez
no, most of the monetary supply is holders of bitcoins, which are sitting on wallets... so? even if only 10 people were mining btc, supply would still be the same. I imagine most miners have been selling since >1k, because this shit is still probably a bubble and miners cant risk it
Easton Brooks
how is it collapsing when it doubled over the last 5 months?
Robert Sanders
my point is the 3-4 million btc left to mine in 100 years make little difference, if the other 15 million btc are panic dumped in a market crash
Jaxon Parker
The main problem with this argument is that while moore law for sheer computational power is truly dead moore law considering efficiency is still pushing strong. TFLOP / Time is not exponential anymore BUT TFLOP / Watt / Time is STILL exponential.
GFLOPS / Watt as of 2018 is still on exponential trend. Ofcourse even this may reach a roadblock on 2022 as per hypotesis of OP. Only Nvidia/intel eggheads really know.
this is a great theory I'll try to get more information on it
Hudson Cruz
Why would they dump for a fiat with higher inflation?For all we know bitcoin will be growing in price every week after having lower inflation than fiat. Just like housing did since 2008.
Good arguments yea we may see a few more advantages in efficiency , but even a slowing down will reduce the ammount of coins dumped by miners.
Nolan Clark
Based retard
Ian Flores
It makes fucking sense , it will literally reverse btc game theory again to cpu mining days , i will try to search more info specially about the mining cost , but it will be hard to find data about the big mining farms cost.
