United Nations projections indicate that over the next 50 years, the populations of virtually all countries of Europe as well as Japan will face population decline and population ageing. The new challenges of declining and ageing populations will require comprehensive reassessments of many established policies and programmes, including those relating to international migration.
Focusing on these two striking and critical population trends, the report considers replacement migration for eight low-fertility countries (France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, United Kingdom and United States) and two regions (Europe and the European Union). Replacement migration refers to the international migration that a country would need to offset population decline and population ageing resulting from low fertility and mortality rates.
(a) Past trends While the total fertility rate increased steadily from 2.16 to 2.49 children per woman between 1950- 1955 and 1960-1965, Germany experienced a continuous decline afterwards, to 1.30 children per woman in 1990-1995. As in other countries in Western Europe, life expectancy increased during the entire period between 1950 and 1995. It reached 76 years for both sexes during the interval of 1990-1995, up from 67.5 years for 1950-1955. One of the results of increased life expectancy and low fertility rates is the process of population ageing. The proportion of the population aged 65 years or older increased from 9.7 per cent in 1950 to 15.5 per cent in 1995. The potential support ratio declined from 6.9 persons aged 15- 64 years for one person aged 65 years or over in 1950 to 4.4 persons in 1995.
Reminder that those who support this shit die as well.
Gavin Harris
(b) Scenario I Scenario I, the medium variant of the United Nations 1998 Revision, assumes a net total of 11.4 million migrants between 1995 and 2050. For the years 1995-2005 it estimates 240,000 migrants per year and for the period between 2005 and 2050 a net migration of 200,000 persons per annum. For the overall population of Germany the medium variant projects an increase from 81.7 million in 1995 to 82.4 million in 2005. Thereafter, the population would continuously decline to 73.3 million in 2050 (the results of the 1998 United Nations projections are shown in the annex tables). The population aged 15-64 years would increase slightly from 55.8 million in 1995 to 56.0 million in 2000; between 2000 and 2050 it would decrease continuously to 42.7 million. The share of the elderly (65 years and above) would increase from 12.6 million in 1995 (15.5 per cent) to 20.8 million in 2050 (28.4 per cent). Consequently, the potential support ratio would be halved, decreasing from 4.4 in 1995 to 2.1 in 2050.
(c) Scenario II Scenario II is based on the fertility and mortality assumptions of the medium variant of the 1998 Revision of the United Nations, but without any migration to Germany after 1995. Compared to scenario I, the total population would decrease much faster, from 81.7 million in 1995 to 58.8 million in 2050, a 28 per cent decrease for the total population. The population aged 15-64 years would decrease even faster: from 55.8 million to 32.7 million, a 41 per cent loss. In the absence of any migration, the population aged 65 or older would increase to 18.7 million by the year 2050. As a result, the potential support ratio in scenario II would decrease from 4.4 in 1995 to 1.8 in 2050.
(d) Scenario III Scenario III assumes a constant total population between 1995 and 2050 (81.7 million). Keeping the population at such a level would require substantially higher immigration to Germany than anticipated by the United Nations 1998 Revision. Between 1995-2050, a total of 17.8 million net migrants would be needed, an average of 324,000 per year. Such a migration flow would result in a population 15-64 of 48.4 million, and the group of 65 years or older would increase to 21.4 million in 2050. The potential support ratio would decline from 4.4 to 2.3 in 2050. In 2050, out of a population of 82 million people, 23 million (28 per cent) would be post-1995 migrants or their descendants.
(e) Scenario IV Scenario IV keeps the size of the population aged 15-64 years constant at the 1995 level of 55.8 million until the year 2050. This would require a total of 25.2 million migrants between 1995 and 2050, an average of 458,000 per year. The total population of Germany would increase to 92 million in 2050, of which 33 million (36 per cent) would be post-1995 migrants and their descendants. The potential support ratio would be 2.4 in 2050.
(f) Scenario V Scenario V does not allow the potential support ratio to decrease below the value of 3.0. In order to achieve this, no immigrants would be needed until 2015, and 40.5 million immigrants would be needed between 2015 and 2035, an average of 2.0 million per year during that period. By 2050, out of a total population of 113.2 million, 54.4 million, or 48 percent, would be post-1995 immigrants or their descendants.
Prop it up with "replacement" migration >import millions of foreigners of offset retires What happens when all those foreigners reach retirement age? >import more foreigners >+ foreigners will breed more So we will end up with an over populated, poluted, cramped shit hole like China? And have lost all our traditional values and culture >YES. But thats a source of your strength WHO will pay for these migrants? >YOU via (((socialism))) Hmmm.... Sound like a flawed stop gap to prop up Capitalism that needs continuous growth and consumption, at the expense of everything we hold dear. >Dont be racist Goy What about open borders for ISRAEL? >REEEEEEEEEE
(g) Scenario VI Scenario VI keeps the potential support ratio constant at its 1995 level of 4.4 until 2050. The total of immigrants needed between 1995 and 2050 to keep this ratio constant would be 188.5 million, which is an average of 3.4 million migrants per year. In 2050 the total population would be 299 million, of which 80 per cent would be post-1995 migrants and their descendants.
No, the solution is to let the populations decline. You fucking greedy control freak.
Angel James
The end game of your plan is to turn the whole world into a brown blob, with no standards and a massive drop in the ceiling of intelligence. And for what?
Adrian James
Implying society will continue to function at all once the population of foreigners become to big of a weight to bear upon the productive natives. Most likely outcome is civil wars and ethnic conflicts that are normally seen in the middle east and africa. tldr a fool only believes this will work as stated, but I suspect that the true people pushing for this know this will end in failure and massive bloodshed.
Justin Ward
So you can have more debtors to be slaves? Just say what you want, stop trying to hide it.
Wyatt Gomez
No. Japan is doing the exact opposite and will survive better than the EU.
It's like you're willfully trying to spite nature because a bunch of people told you that you should. I don't understand your motives.
Logan Davis
>South Korea, Japan These are 2 of the most racist countries on the fucking planet, they'll never accept darkies unless they're forced to by the (((blue helmets))) Same applies to us here, I'd rather not have a pension than live among 70 IQ third-world nogs
Jacob Davis
The only solution is to let the system collapse.
Ryder Lewis
One of the flaw of the U.N. reasoning, is to think that immigration will have no impact on the dynamic of the original population. Probably immigration will reduce even more the fertility rate of the original population, because life become more expensive and jobs more scarce.
This is why Germany and France have such a hard on for the EU they NEED people from the east of Europe now that it is clear those from outside Europe destabilise the system further.
Benjamin Lopez
It's actually >no pension vs >no pension and tons of nig nogs living around taking welfare
Hunter Adams
Robots and automation will solve labor shortages.
Let nature/forests reclaim cities. Reduced resource use and pollution. Earth sighs a breath of relief.
Citizens get to enjoy the space and wilderness.
Connor Lee
>Excuse for white genocide >Europeans are literally going to genocide themselves >mfw the U.S. has to crash the world banks, causing European bankruptcy... allowing them to turn the Muslims on the Jews Thank us later - The U.S.
