Despite modern lows in the official unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate hasn't budged. It stopped collapsing, but in a tight labor market, you'd expect it to rise sharply. That simply isn't happening. That's very, very weird under traditional macroeconomics. And no, it's not due to "retirees," since the LFPR does not count retirees, prisoners, full-time students, or some other categories.
Something strange about the US economy
Grayson Moore
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Aiden Ward
>It stopped collapsing, but in a tight labor market,
Define tight labor market.
>you'd expect it to rise sharply.
Why? Babies are not born in the millions.
James Kelly
>Despite modern lows in the official unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate hasn't budged.
Obama redefined unemployment to make his numbers look better. Trump has stopped the increase, but the true number hasn't fallen much.
Logan Hughes
NEETs and people who just gave up completely
I really can't fault people for not wanting to bust their ass for shit pay in a (((society))) that will stop at nothing to make them a debt serf
Nolan Peterson
US economy and employment is propped up several ways
>1. massive government contracts
This ponzi scheme keeps the plebs employed. It's essentially a form of welfare
>2. massive military
Self-explanatory
>3. use of major US government fronts such as Google, Amazon, and Facebook
Again, products subsidized with your tax dollars. Hence why AWS servers are free, Amazon Alexas cost so little, Smart TVs are $300 cheaper than non-Smart TVs, Facebook is free, and Google lets you store many GB of data for free
Chase Morris
>Define tight labor market.
3.8% unemployment is considered extremely tight in economics terms. That's basically "full employment." Traditionally, "marginal" workers are expected to start flooding back into the labor market at around 5% unemployment.
>Why? Babies are not born in the millions.
What would that have to do with anything? The labor force participation rate doesn't include kids.
James Martinez
>Labor participants include healthy working adults.
Sure. What about housewives and other people who just stay at home, but who are employable? Did you consider the fact that the graph you've presented may have included those people and they correspond to the ~30% of the people you're suggesting are missing from the labor force?
Ryan Rivera
They've always been part of the calculation here. The question is why the LFPR peaked in 2000 and hasn't gone back up again despite a current 3.8% unemployment rate. That's highly unusual and is not the expected result from traditional macroecon analysis.
Jace Hughes
>Obama redefined unemployment to make his numbers look better. Trump has stopped the increase, but the true number hasn't fallen much.
Exactly. Well said.
Ethan Thompson
>The question is why the LFPR peaked in 2000 and hasn't gone back up again despite a current 3.8% unemployment rate.
So the problem lies in defining the unemployment rate as this user pointed out
Or do you have concerns with his assertion?
Justin Sanchez
so you're saying they're lying about the unemployment rate
are you surprised?
Nolan Perez
basically alot of people are being put on the recycling list where they go to agencies, get a job for a month, get fired, and round she goes.
Luke Taylor
>3.8% unemployment is considered extremely tight in economics terms. That's basically "full employment."
People stop being counted in unemployment statistics if they've been unemployed for more than 6 months.
So, what falling unemployment but unchanged labor participation rate means is that there is a growing population of permanently unemployed NEETs.
Ayden Lopez
It took me an entire year to find a job, and that's with previous full-time work experience
Wyatt Jenkins
And an excuse for businesses to whine for more immigrants.
same
Adam Diaz
This is a big part of it. Employment for the 16-19 age group dropped from ~50% to ~30% over about 15 years. As these people became more of the overall workforce there became a larger population of people who don't work or seek work
Lincoln Edwards
Automation.
Christopher Reyes
Also, IBM allows you to store 10TB (((on them)))
Jose Stewart
Traditional economics hasn’t been very useful lately. Where’s the inflation? No on knows...everyone was sure it was coming.
Caleb Baker
Healthcare costs are inflating sharply, and that's 20% of US GDP.
Adam Brown
We should all be hoping that stat continues to collapse. If not, the boomers are clinging to their jobs and not making way for younger generations to take over. Gonna need a boomer holocaust soon.
David Ramirez
2e have allowed people to make laziness and leeching a lifestyle. The social welfare state is an experiment in dysgenics. Half of the people in the US are carrying the entire burden.
Jace Rogers
They just keep eliminating items that inflate from the CPI and use hedonics and other manipulative tools to keep the official number down. Social Security is tied to the official inflation number. They will never allow it to rise.
Kayden Smith
Cameron Myers
>2e have allowed
*We have allowed
Luke King
yes
just think about it, the us economy depends on the unhealthiness of its citizens
for comparision china healthcare gdp proportion 5.5%
statista.com
Jayden Gomez
The biggest thing to do is look at the real unemployment which is 92 Million. Categorize them out and you begin seeing the real numbers and the cause for this discrepancy. We have a record high birth rate (Not being reported) a large geriatric population, and a high number of kids under 18 who are not participating in the labor force due to fundamental changes in priorities. That is, they are encouraged not to participate through financial incentives through their parents, who provide them with everything they need. Within the section of 22 through 30, this is the 3.8% figure.
Hunter Powell
Come on OP. This should be obvious. The LFPR doesn't include illegal immigrants.
Charles Cruz
HEY user!!!! DID YOU KNOW THE GOVERNMENT IS LYING ABOUT UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION!!?!??!?!?!!
Justin Allen
Lots of NEETs, more every day
Easton Price
People retired on bitcoin have to show up somewhere, I would assume in a significant number of people not participating in the workforce.
Eli Lewis
> AWS servers are free
Get the fuck out of here with that bullshit
David Collins
I don''t know about that, since countries with more extensive social welfare systems like the Scandinavian nations actually have higher labor force participation in the US. I think the lowest LFPR in Europe was actually Macedonia, which is among the poorer nations.
Noah Nguyen
>implying you can trust stats from china
Aiden Roberts
unemployment is only down due to the fact LFPR going up
the new jobs being produced are all shite/PT
Hunter Richardson
o well
this one its not hard to believe, you know
David Smith
All of you guys are practically retarded. Google Labor force participation "DEMOGRAPHICALLY ADJUSTED".... Boomers are retiring and our aging and retiring workforce is driving down the number.
Jonathan Richardson
> Obama’s redefined
Fake news, his administration didn’t redefine U3-U6, you right-wing retards. all the procedures for all the different unemployment rates never changed during his admin.
whether any of those metrics ever tell the true story via dropping out of the work force is a different question, obviously 6-month and 1year labor abandonment is important, but that calculation was the same before bush crashed the economy with no survivors
Tyler Thompson
I recently worked at a place that did that. I started as a temp and got hired on, but most people just got let go after 60 days and they'd bring in someone new the next day. It's technically against the law but nobody enforces it.
John Morales
I'm 30 and only working part-time (bartending)
I want to work in IT, I'm in school for it, but how many employers would want to hire me at my age with my experience? They can just get some indian for $6/hr who can't code or figure out the ass end of a router, but he's got 3 degrees from a mill in india so he must be worth it.
I didn't get a career started when I got out of highschool (Pretty much right when the recession hit), and now I'm fucked. Nobody is willing to train, nobody is willing to hire with little experience. My only chance of getting into any career is literally just nepotism - and I don't know anyone.
This economy is fucked.
Daniel Campbell
Get in-demand certifications: Red Hat, VMWare, Cisco. That will more than make up for your lack of experience and will make you competitive with the Indians.
Benjamin Bell
Retirees are not part of the LFPR.
Nicholas Stewart
Wages are still terrible for most workers. Little incentive to go to work. Even for highly educated workers. Contract attorneys are being paid $30 an hour in major cities. That is lower than the year 2000 and rents have skyrocketed since then.
Zachary Brown
An interesting thread, but I don't think you'll find much good discussion. This place is now full of economically illiterate retards, as you're discovering.
My guess is its a combination of people who scrambled to get on disability after shit hit the fan, women who lost their jobs and then realized that they actually enjoyed being housewives, and men who flew back to the nest and will never work another day in their lives, but will eventually end up removing themselves from the lfpr equation by eating a lead sammich once their parents die and the gravy train derails.
Given all that, the lfpr no longer collapsing and merely steadying itself is probably the best we can hope for.
Landon Miller
Oldfag here. Wasn't just Kang Obama that fudged and massaged the UE numbers, it goes back decades. The headline unemployment number is a farce. Economy is improving under Trump, but the real unemployment # is around 21%.
Luis Perez
awesome. we are back to 90's/early 2000's IT advice. this song and dance has been played out before.
>moar certs. need moar certs. get certs. get certs