Can we discuss geopolitics Jow Forums, and more specifically Peter Zeihan and his hypothesis that the US is bound to become an isolationist super power while the rest of the world burns in oil wars? I know he and his talks have been making the rounds on this site, but please see link related for a full lecture (it's definitely worth it):
Pic related is an user's brief summation of Zeihan's thoughts. And link below is a nice primer and intro piece to the geopolitical advantages the US has, and why it has leverage against any potential ally and enemy in the world:
What about it? Isolationism naturally helps the country if it can defend itself. Foreign entanglement keeps us in a welfare state.
Ethan Ward
If I had a chance to pick Zeihan's mind, I would ask him how he thinks tech advancement, specifically in either AI or alternative energy, might change the game. Also, how would global climate change affect his theories? Otherwise his ideas are very compelling I think.
On a related note, do any of you anons now how one can find employment studying and/or analyzing geopolitics?
Personally I agree. I just wanted to start a discussion about it because it fascinates me, and it beats having another shareblue/racebait/meme bullshit thread.
Also, most people assume American dominance and preeminence arises from us projecting force out into the world continually. They cant see the benefits of withdrawing the force protection when no other country has or will have the capability to fill that gap
Cameron Lee
Lots of smrt words, but glaring errors that disqualify the whole thing.
For one, what bizarro world is he in that electricity only comes from gas?
Anyway, its nonsense.
I like the USA USA of it.
Andrew Fisher
It's not just electricity that matters - its transportation and trade. You NEED oil to power machinery that transports goods and services over long distances. If that supply breaks down, global trade breaks down. The US however will be unscathed as we are mostly regional traders either within the union itself or with NAFTA. Plus we will have energy independence so our transportation will not stop.
Jaxson Peterson
To add, you'll break down food shipments to countries that import most of their calories, like China, leading to famine. The US on the other hand has the largest amount of arable land in the world, so we will be fine.
Adrian Moore
Does this mean the Fallout games were prophecy?
>energy wars hit in the late 21st century >A desperate China invades Anchorage for the oil >America annexes Leafland >China pushed back by American night >China let's the nukes fly as a last ditch desperate effort to win.
Inb4 the great divergence arguments.
Chase Diaz
This is very wrong.
Heavy industry usually uses electricity, not gas. It is not hard to ship across europe. It is very hard to ship aross usa. Usa has very few natural resources left. Usa has very bad infrastructure.
Having the highest consumption, and the largest income inequality on earth is really bad in a no trade situation. It is not a benefit.
Usa is in a very precarious position, not one of strength. It is unlikely Americans are such good hard working healthy people that theyll make it on their own.
Mason Kelly
One last thing, I think the biggest reason most people dont see this coming, or rationalize it away, is because we spent the last 70 years under "peaceful" American hegemony (peaceful in that there wasnt any major imperial wars between major powers). A generation has grown up and lived under this assumed peace, so going back to pre American security with an unstable world and potential world wars is different and shocking.
Nolan Thomas
JIDF
Ryder Hernandez
Zeihan has some interesting points. His biggest flaw is he totally ignores the real reason of Bretton Woods which was to create USD hegemony. Creation of NATO was actually just in support of that. I don't know why he doesn't use that point, because it strengthens his case not weakens. The biggest strategic error of EU was in creating a currency that competes with USD. All the NATO 2% vs 1% drama is window dressing, they sealed their fate competing against our biggest product. We need to deplatform them and NATO pullout is the way to do it. For Americans, we are about to experience the roaring economy that US had 1945-65. Ironically the Zoomers are going to be the new Boomers.
Blake Campbell
Way to out yourself like the fool you are.
Gavin Long
ment for
Andrew Ward
>Heavy industry usually uses electricity, not gas. How do power plants work, the subreddit.
Wyatt Turner
USA is in a glorious position. Despite already being global superpower #1, the U.S. is only at perhaps 10% or lesd of its full potential, if it were to fully use all available resources on the North American continent.
Key challenge #1 is financing the required infrastructure and especially renewing the old infrastructure.
Key challenge #2 is containing the Mexican demographic subversion of its Southern and South Western borderstates.
It strikes me as unlikely that the USA will abandon the Middle East. What are they going to do? Leave all that oil to the Arabs, Russians and Chinese? If the USA keeps propping up the Israeli's, Egyptians, Saudi's, etc., they get a piece of the action and a cut of the loot.
Globalism wins because the (((Masters))) make a lot more money hiring over seas slave labor as opposed to working men in the USA. No Billionaire is going to want the gem that is Middle East Resources to be in someone else's hands.
Noah Hill
This theory is based on lots of assumptions lots of which do not hold true
William White
Roi is a fgt
Cooper Bell
Heard of nuclear, solar, tidal, hydro, wind, etc. ?
The heavy machinery in most of the world uses electric motors.
Carter Morris
What? We have plenty of natural resources, ignoring the shale revolution. Also we have easy time shipping things in the states because we have the largest amount of navigable water ways courtesy of the Mississippi system, which massively reduces transportation costs.
Also only about 8% of our GDP comes from global trade, 40% of which comes from NAFTA, which under trump will hopefully be reworked even more in our favor.
Carter Price
Nice trips. But shale is real. The breakeven price is now $55, heading to $35 by 2020.
Brandon Peterson
Key challenge #3 is finding a American social solution for the mass unemployment problem posed by automation of the economy.
Key challenge #4 is swift adoption of crypto-currencies/blockchain technologies to further increase networkef efficiency of the American economy and also incorporating them into political infrastructure to ensure proper voting outcomes.
Key challenge #5 is finding a solution to reverse memetic subversion strategies deployed by enemies of America towards American society (see SJW bullshit etc.).
William Evans
Serious question, is it good for the US that someone really provocative like Trump is leading this change, or would it have been better if someone like Hillary would slowly and measurely decease our involvement? If more isolation was going to be inevitable was Trump really the best person to do it, so quickly? My fear is that these reasonable economic policies of further self reliance will be seen as not as legitimate because it’s Trump leading the charge.
Zachary Morgan
Almost all new power plants built in last 20 years are nat gas. It now provides >50% of electricity production worldwide. Nat Gas will only get cheaper, which means it will only grow.
Ryan Hernandez
Neither largest or most. Not even the mist economically significant. Not divided by capita or utilization divided by length.
Lots, yes.
Alexander Fisher
From a 100 yrs in the future it really won't matter that much if it was now or a decade from now that this realignment occurred. However the good thing about trump is there is total transparency during the process. Better for everyone
Austin Cox
It creeps over 50 because usa uses so much fossil fuel.
Extrapolating that to places with trends in the opposite direction is intellectually dishonest, or stupid.
Andrew Perez
JIDF
Caleb Fisher
If you say so pal, i hate jews myself. Palestine forever, destroy israel. Zionists are a special kind of evil, as is the jidf. Wait... are you jidf?
Only the jidf can read statisticsor discuss americas future? Only jidf can critical think?
Carter Cox
Not the same guy, but all I can say is take some time to watch the lecture, and see what you agree and disagree with.
Owen Phillips
i was gonna go to the bar to watch the second half of the soccer game but now theres a zeihan thread. fffffffffuuuuuuu
Chase Gray
"AI" is a fucking meme user
Evan Taylor
he does think highly of 3D printing technology. He did a newsletter not that long ago where he predicted Tesla and Facebook were going to crash
Brody Sanchez
Exactly. We honestly need people to get more well versed in geopolitics and related fields on this board.
Benjamin Edwards
Facebook I can see, but Tesla?
On a related note, I wonder how Zeihan sees the potential in space commercialization
Nolan Sullivan
He's been totally spot on on the trade war and NATO/EU/US relations. clairvoyant level correct, where you listen to mainstream news talking about how china holds all the cards in a trade war, or how the US needs their allies in Europe and they just don't consider this shit at all.
Jayden Gonzalez
This is what he says on Tesla: KLC: So it will be harder for tech companies to finance that continuous innovation? PZ: Right. That's part one, just keep that in the back of your mind. Tech already has that kind of sectoral challenge. It won’t kill them, but it gives them a little less wiggle room than they are used to having. As of right now, they can get money for whatever they want. That's not going to be true for much longer. Tesla, Facebook, Twitter, Amazon, those are the four I want to chat about. The others fall into those baskets, but those are the big four. Tesla does not make an economically viable car that it can mass market at a good price without subsidies, and they are running out of the ability to get the subsidies. The way the American subsidy system for electric vehicles works is after you've sold as a brand -- Tesla, Dodge, GM -- a certain number of vehicles, then you are cut off, and you no longer get the tax credit. Tesla has made top-ofthe- line magnificent machines that cost in excess of $100,000 and gotten the tax credit for them.
Christopher Young
cont: KLC: Because they don't sell many? PZ: Right. But after a decade, they're hitting the ceiling before the Model 3 gets into full production. While technically the Model 3 is more accessible financially to your normal buyer, the tax credit is not going to be available next year. So the Model 3 is going be a lot more expensive for the end consumer. Also, because they're having a hard time hitting their numbers and they need cash flow, and because people finally looked at the books and realized that you're spending money like you're a tech company but you're making a car, they will not be making the baseline Model 3 because they can't make enough money on it. They're only making models with upgrades that basically double the cost of the car. Also, Tesla is still having problems making the cars, so the whole story of Tesla is unraveling and that's before you get to this huge debt bulge that's coming in courtesy of Solar City. Between the end of the subsidies, people looking under the hood financially and their lack of manufacturing prowess, it looks to me like the entire Tesla empire is going to collapse in the next few months, certainly within the year.
Jayden Long
The Southwest US will secede from the US after the Mexican majority successfully agitate for secession all faciltated by the (((media))). The Northwest US will be colonised by China so as to completely undermine US hegemony in the Pacific Ocean, Vancouver is already 43% Chinese and San Francisco is being used as their base in the US. Australia and New Zealand will be vassals of China after it successfully colonises its major coastal cities via the unregulated student visa program in both countries. Canada will be sold to the highest bidder, however Vancouver will be secured by China as part of its strategy to undermine US hegemony in the Pacific Ocean. The demographic push will then head south into Seattle and Portland linking up with the Chinese colonists pushing north from San Francisco. The complete loss of the West coast by the US will turn it into a banana republic and global US hegemony will be over. This will be the signal for the Sunni muslims to implement their own colonisation program, specifically, Western Europe, where the population has been demoralised by the (((media))) and the massive casualties and destruction of the European wars of the 20th century. Eastern Europe will unite to oppose the Sunni muslim takeover of Europe, leading to nuclear strikes on Istanbul, Riyadh, Islamabad and Cairo by Russian nuclear forces.
Anthony Wood
I have got nothing against the USA. Besides, it's a superpower. But your warmogerring around the world is your worst problem. Applies to other countries, too.
Jacob Nguyen
I will be honest, I only recently became aware of Zeihan recently through one of the few good threads here that pop up. His ideas do make so much sense in context now. Especially with Trump being so brusque with our "allies", like with Germany and NATO. That relationship is transforming, since we hold all the leverage we can demand what we want, we aren't beholden to foreign strategic interests.
Besides his books, where have you been seeing his work or interviews? I'm curious about his thoughts on other topics too
Isaac Price
his twitter is good, and his website has newsletters with current hot takes. Like a month ago he did a newsletter each day for a week about each of the G7 member countries. Really seems like he should be advising the white house somehow
Jace Moore
ok im gonna stop but this is my fav zeigraphic, shows how weak a position China is in with a map. Hemmed in by rivals
