2020 Electoral Prediction Thread

Funny little world you live in, the world of make believe and radical autism.

There may be some backlash at the people trying to take down all the confederate statues. Alot of old virginia are direct descendants of many war dead.

Add Richmond, 7cities areas and it's closer to 3/4. Fucking sucks our BEAUTIFUL Old Dominion has bee swamped with filthy yanks..

Need some specific matchups in here, because in all honesty Trump wouldn't be a hard candidate to beat if the Dems pick a real candidate and not a MUH DIVERSUHTAY MUH HER TURN candidate.

Here is Warrens chances, possibly the Dems stupidest pick.

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It all depends on the results of the midterms (especially if the House flips or not). If the gop get good results and Trump doesn't fuck up in the next 2 years, it's all good. But i'm not very optimistic. Also i'm not a huge fan of the muh russia narrative but recently i noticed a flood of leftist trolls/bots on social media. Not the liberal kind, the commie kind. I don't know where they're coming from but it reminds me of the 2016 meme war. So IF some foreign agency is trying to manipulate things, i bet they will pick the berniebros/goblina ocasio side. The goal is to polarize the political climate.

here's hoping oklahoma turns blue so it's 269/269 and SHTF

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This is the only acceptable answer

Thing is, people like Clinton, Sanders, Biden, and Warren are still to this day the most popular for being the nominee for 2020. They better hope to god someone comes out of left field for them because they are fucked with any of those candidates.

California goes red.
[spoiler]Maybe it could if more than cucks lived here[/spoiler]

>Colorado
>Red
People absolutely hate Trump here. Anywhere along the front range, southern CO, summit county, etc, they absolutely despise Trump. The only place you'll find republicans in Colorado is in Grand Junction/Glenwood Springs or eastern Colorado in the Limon area.
To this day I've still never seen a Trump hat/sticker but have seen plenty of Bernie/Hillshill ones.

Trump must hold onto to every state that he carried solidly. This leaves Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He can lose any 2/3 of those but he must carry at least one, assuming no surprises anywhere else on the map. Honestly lads it doesn't look great for him. The democrats would be absolute morons not to campaign heavily in these three states. I have a lot of extended family up there, and many of them fully buy into the 'blue wave 2018 is our year' malarkey. Remember, his margins of victory in the these states were really tight, even with HRC cockily ignoring them during her campaign. So we're counting on Trump's rust belt campaign promises to have been fully appreciated, because just a little apathy or disillusionment on the issue could cost the whole state.

Elsewhere, states like Florida (puerto ricans), Georgia (niggers), and Texas (spics) could be in danger due to shifting demographics. Democrats have been dreaming of flipping these states for a long time, which may or may not be a pipe dream, but it's certainly a worrying prospect. For example, Texas is a notoriously low voter turnout state, and it's been flooded with pliant minority voters for decades. Republicans cannot win a general election without Texas, simple as. I live in Texas, and while there is large support for Trump and the GOP, I fear that we may be in for a rude awakening one day. Maybe not 2020, but if the tide of foreigners isn't stemmed, it will become inevitable. Based tejanos are maybe half true, but the more recent arrivals or fully hooked up to the DNC plantation.

If Trump doesn't build that fucking wall and build it tall, then conservatives are fighting a losing battle from here on out. The democrats know this for sure and they are licking their chops, as we have seen with the child separation narrative, to accelerate it. Most red states cannot afford to get complacent in 2020, and if they do, it will cost us much more than a single election cycle.

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You're right, and I worry most about whoever Trump's successor is. If it's a neocon like Mike Pence and especially if Trump fails on immigration and laws then all of the fears you talked about will probably come to pass. It would take just one more young guy like Bill Clinton for the dems and they would have the country forever probably.

That's all worst case scenario though. Trump's doing decent on jobs and if 2018 turns out well he will probably do fine on immigration.

1776 confirmed

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Watching liberals celebrate prematurely after winning FL only to later lose would be glorious

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WA goes red
>1,000 people moving every day to Western WA
>more conservatives around than usual
>Weed legalized in CA
>people who cant stand the rain moving back

Serious but retarded question: Do the dems HAVE to have a candidate? Does there HAVE to even be an election?

I would hate to be one of the few pathetic candidates the DNC is going to force to bear their torch. If I were any one of them I would never agree to potentially ruin my career/legacy by losing to Trump and being hated by them for the rest of time. I would just wait until 2024 or beyond.

There's no way they don't all think the same thing.

>Pennsylvania

>Going red again if the democrats put up anybody other than Clinton or Pelosi

Senator Doug Jones(D) - AL

This is what I've been wondering myself. Whoever is picked will need to go through unimaginable hell, and put their family through it as well. Absolutely no stone will go unturned. I honestly wouldn't wish that on anyone, not even a filthy commie liberal.

He will get it all done by 2020, his success will not be ignored, the left offers nothing but "vote for us so we can get rid of Trump"

I live and work in NoVA and see more Trump bumper stickers than anything else. I use that to keep me hopeful.

Michigan is definitely staying red. Manufacturing is booming and everyone is happy around metro Detroit. Well.. anyone with jobs, if you know what I mean.

Oregon is a better shot than Washington
t. West WA fag

Where is this specifically? I'm in Falls Church and I've only seen 3 since 2016.

The niggers in Atlanta won't swing the state

maybe some never Trump Republican can run for the Democrats. How about John McBrain Cancer, he still lives, doesn't he?

The last time Dems went this batshit insane Nixon won every state except CA

Dems are fucked in 2020

You must live in the shit hole known as Denver. I see Trump support all over the Springs. Colorado could swing red if the dems run another shittt candidate.

the unemployed blacks are not going to wait in line for 4 to 6 hours to vote for a white person, GA is absolutely up for grabs if the dems run Obama 2.0

Massachusetts not California. He won CA both times, while he never won MA.

>TX
even my university of texas professors used to shill this. you're fucking insane pedro. go home and take wendy davis with you

Vienna. I see maybe one Hillary sticker, two Obamas, and five or so Trumps on the 495 every other day.

dems are energized as fuck to vote Trump out. Our only hope is that the worst candidate wins the dem nomination and that probably won't happen since no unlikable dem has the starpower hillary had to win the nomination.
In all honesty I give Trump a 1.2% chance of winning.

Pretty sure this is fake. God get was on 7/7

I think it's going to be really close. Don't get over confident and then forget to vote.

Unfortunately, WA is not going red anytime soon unless Seattle slides into the sound and takes many of its residents with it.

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God get was 07/06/18(Fri)19:31:17 No.177777777

tell me who is the candidate energizing all dems and the republicans to vote for xher? You honestly don't believe the Trump hate is enough to make people vote, do you?

Reminder since Nov 8th 2016 republicans have been getting absolutely ass blasted in all of the special elections.
Reminder in 2016 their we're more 18+ millenials than boomers however more boomers voted, the same might not be said in 2020.
Reminder a democrat won in fucking Alabama
Reminder Trumps voters energy peaked in 2016 and you fucking know it
I really hope Trump wins again, but boys... it's going to be tough.

My mistake

see every special election since Nov the 8th

This.

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turnout is not really out off the unusual in neither camp

>everything is going to follow a set of rules that I put in place
Wrong.
>delusion #1
Muh special elections... That were tainted by voter fraud. Forgot about all those "millennials" bragging about having voted once already on live TV?
>delusion #2
Muh millennials... they are all reliable voters because they have to care about social issues since they are millennials... wait, why are they becoming increasingly racist and hardline conservative? THAT ISNT WHAT I HOPED FOR!
>delusion #3
Muh democrat who won a rigged election tainted by media bias
>delusion #4
That voter energy peaked in 2016, but ignore all the polls that show Trump being more popular than Obama or any other President within the past few decades
>delusion #5
That comment is beautiful, "I really hope Trump wins boys"... It's as if you really want us to believe that after you cast a bunch of misinformation and doubt that we'd actually believe you're one of us. You shills are pathetic. What's next, gonna call me Schlomo in an attempt to prove you're one of us by making fun of jews?
When will you faggots realize that you will never blend in unless you support us unironically and without bias 100%, and you will always stick out like a transgender in a YMCA

Trump will win all the states he won in 2016 by a larger margin and also pick up a few more he lost by slim margins. California and new York voters will mobilize like never before further proving the utility of the electoral college as he loses the popular vote by a larger margin but wins the electoral by a larger margin. The screeching intensifies.

the only voter base that matters is Polish-Americans

I don't understand why they hate him so much. He's a good president. The tax cuts, wall and raise act are all great ideas.

this

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Trump has 100% locked in Wisconsin (10) with Foxconn (10K manufacturing jobs alone)

Trump wins New Hampshire (4) where he lost by 2,736 votes (0.3%)

Trump wins ME 2 (1) like he won in 2016

Trump keeps Florida (29) where he won by over 110,000 votes. Dems don't stand a chance in the panhandle.

Trump keeps North Carolina (15) where Trump won by 173,315 votes. (In 2012 Romney won by 97,465; Trump earned +75,850 more votes than Romney)

Just like with Bush, huh?

#MeToo

Yeah pretty much.

>Oregon, the same state that allowed over 1m illegals to take up residency through a loophole that allowed them to forge an identity
The people around here are becoming demoralized. You must not spend much time socializing. I doubt they will have the gall to vote the same way they did in 2020, let alone have a good result. Coupled with voter fraud that is soon to be removed, I doubt they will be happy.
You guys are typical W.WA residents. Just lose hope and keep letting Seattle get their way. I'm telling you, I'm seeing more conservatives here than usual, and another glimmer of hope is being seen in SeaTac, where they have a small muslim enclave near the Tukwila train station, which is being broken up by the city (they found a loophole to fuck them financially as well) and the people are more than likely going to have to move since they can't afford anything here.

Stop being defeatists. This is a prime area for conservatives to take over.

Promote European immigration and almost every state will be red.

proenglish.org/2018/07/03/poll-50-of-americans-prefer-merit-based-immigration-system-and-raise-act-goals/

>50% of likely U.S. voters favor moving to a merit-based system for legal immigration that favors legal immigrants based on their skills, according to a new Rasmussen Reports survey.

>Such a merit-based immigration system would be consistent with the goals of the RAISE Act, as proposed by U.S. Senators David Perdue of Georgia and Tom Cotton of Arkansas. The RAISE Act would create a point system for immigrants based on factors such as English speaking ability, education levels, and jobs skills in order to rank applicants for employment-based green cards.

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Same as last time + Minnesota and New Hampshire

Yeah, that's what you said LAST TIME.

CNN please, that didn't even work last time.

Ok CNN, That's what you said last time.

>P for pozzed

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It's going to be close. The Dems will try their damnedest to bus in illegals/multi voters to flip Arizona, Texas, and Florida but it will only work in Florida. New Mexico will turn red due to increased border security. Michigan will be close but will swing back to blue. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are going to stay red. New Hampshire will flip to red. Virginia is going to remain cucked and blue for years to come sadly.

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I hope to God that Trump can pass this in his first term. Nothing is more important.

>trump doin worse than 2016

The only tim in history this ever happens was 2012 because obama was less popular than when he was elected

Trump will be wildly popular in 2020

I agree that millenials are unreliable but the hive mind of hatred is like nothing I have seen since 2004, and Bush won that won.
I agree that Trumps approval with voters is higher than Obamas was at this time in his presidency.
Trump has a chance, definitely. I'm not telling you to not vote because Trump has no chance, that's retarded.
I will not lie, Trump was the first republican I ever voted for. I'm not one of you, all I wanted was more factories in the US.
Other than that I've heard the voter fraud argument for the past 30 years, it's bullshit.

*bush won in 2004 but boomers we're still a larger group of voters at that time.

imo

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>Texas blue in 2020

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Archive this thread so I can mock all the precious snowflakes who thought their odds were going to be better than last year.

This post reaks of /leftypol/

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archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/178619145/

i got it, user.

so what if I'm a communist, I still voted for le based Trump. But we have no chance in 2020, so don't even vote

testing one two

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Jones got fewer votes than any democratic challenger for that seat going back almost 30 years. The democrats won it because voters were disgusted by Moore.

you don't know that much about politics.

1) Elizabeth Warren would be far from the Dems' worst pick. All of Gillibrand, Harris, Booker, Kloubacher, etc...would have less of a chance than her

2) Trump is the most unpopular pres since Bush, and wouldn't have won if not for Hillafuck being his opponent. The idea that he'll capture over 350 votes (regardless of the candidate) is positively absurd

3) A dem soc like Warren, while she might not be a great Prez or even candidate, would absolutely take back at least half of the rust belt if not all of it

4) making not just one, but ALL of Oregon, Illinois and Colorado go red is the thinking of a mentally handicapped person

tl;dr this map is retarded

blue wave! You will lose drumpftards!

Most of those races are small state-level positions. I think so far they've only picked up the Alabama senate seat because McConnell sabotaged one of the three republicans running and the primary kneejerked for Moore in response in the run-off , and maybe one congressional seat. That's it for the national level, they lost every single other special election for national seats.

anyone who is taking an honest to god shot at predicting the map and doing it with anymore conviction than admittedly "completely throwing stuff at the wall" is a brainlet. The idea that you could predict before we even know the candidates declared, what comes of russia, and the main issues of the 2020 campaign is so beyond the regular stupidity i see on here that it is astounding.

niggers. all of you

well, now it's flat-out obvious

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It is very rare for an incumbent to lose. The advantage of simply being the president, dolling out favors, and arriving in AF1 is tremendous.

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>Oklahoma
>Blue
This state is more red than Texas

If we're being realistic, this is the map today

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This is what will happen

Screencap this

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>surprised if MI and WI went red again.
They MUST stay red, the midwest has to be captured for good for any electoral future the GOP has. If those whites aren't voting red then it's done

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Other than Florida I think this map will be most accurate

It's Denver, Boulder, resort towns, and Pueblo that hates Trump. Unfortunately they're more populous than the rest of the state

Remember Tancredo got 2nd as a 3rd party candidate for a pro-wall agenda

Get ready for the #Bluenami, faggots.

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If Trump can hold congress in the mid-terms, build the way, and do something about Obama-care (that isn't shitty Ryancare stuff) then he'll do OP's image. I definitely expect him to in OH, NC, and FL. Now that he's the incumbent I expect NH to flip. NV and MN would depend on the candidate. CO and VA are getting super blue. It would take a really bad candidate to lose those states. Unless Trump does something unbelievable in the next two years.