Predict the Senate Party Lines After Midterms

I think they will the dems are on really shaky ground they seem to be all over the place and it'll be interesting to see how they try to shill their moderates along side their radical commies

Of course the GOP holds the house. They gerrymandered the fuck out of that shit. The house would be safe even with a 10 point generic ballot margin and we're only at 6 or 7.

Also every don't believe the polls. If you still trust them your an idiot..the polls will always be there to demoralize people from voting republican. Don't trust the shills till the votes are counted

I agree, specifically the handicap is about 8% so I'll let the inaccuracy slide for toothpaste posters with incomplete information. Not to mention Ocasio Cortez is doing a fantastic job of sabotaging their chances even after the DNC begged Bernie Sanders to keep an eye on her.

I think it would look like this if nothing changes. (even though things almost certainly will) There's a lot of room for improvement. We just need to get serious about stopping these crazy leftists.

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please clap

Is it true James Crowley is running as an (((independent))) candidate?

65 (R)
10(I)
25(D)

Reasoning: Elections postponed to January due to major happening that is really bad for the (((Ds)))

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It's Joe Crowley, and yes he is
>abcnews.go.com/Politics/joe-lieberman-urges-yorkers-vote-joe-crowley-ocasio/story?id=56665231
No clue if it will work. I'm hoping it doesn't, the democrats should have to deal with Cortez being a lolcow for two solid years for their stupidity.

R100 / D0 because after the midterms the dems will launch the civil war bitter they lost so many seats and get wiped out by the afternoon, losing every seat

I would cream myself if Republicans win the supermajority, but the chances of picking up enough seats for that is nearly impossible. As long as we retain the majority in the senate, we'll keep being able to pound through SCOTUS nominees.

I'm more worried about the house, though.

He's saying he's not running, but he's likely just biding his time. I doubt Dems would give up one of their top people and his connections in exchange for a political punching bag.

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I've read from several places that the house is Gerrymandered and R's are a high probability to retain majority.

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Joe yeah, my bad.
That's crazy though. Too bad his district is so liberal it still doesn't matter for GOP chances.
I love how Dems are latching on to AOC as "the new face of the Democratic party" and I hope she wins so they can double down. She's waaaay too far to the left and they'll suicide themselves when the public figures it out and it's too late for them to back down.

>Too bad his district is so liberal it still doesn't matter for GOP chances.
Au contraire, my minty fresh friend. This district is a noisy one, one that draws other candidates in more competitive districts to mirror its rhetoric to get donor funding.
Cortez is an asset this election, and if she wins the seat she will remain one through 2020. She promotes strengthening the potentially fatal purity spiral the Democrats find themselves in right now.

Really? The district seems fairly solid 80/20 in Dems favor,maybe 75/25. Even if they split the vote 40/40, the GOP would need to convince a shitload of voters. What would be a scenario in which you see a GOP candidate win?
>>Too bad his district is so liberal it still doesn't matter for GOP chances.
>Cortez is an asset this election, and if she wins the seat she will remain one through 2020. She promotes strengthening the potentially fatal purity spiral the Democrats find themselves in right now.
I completely agree with this.

>what exceptional digits
My point was not that the GOP can win in the district but that it is high-profile enough that it draws other democratic congressional candidates to behave like Cortez does in her race. It drags them down without killing her chances, which is disastrous for the Democrats as a whole.

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Do you have a source? Big if true.

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Archive not working with wapo but here

washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-power-that-gerrymandering-has-brought-to-republicans/2016/06/17/045264ae-2903-11e6-ae4a-3cdd5fe74204_story.html?utm_term=.b85bafa53a14

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Right. In that's case I agree.

She's a Maxine Waters without the potential to claim senility to dodge her most inflammatory statements. I want this woman in the House, as part of a Democratic Minority leading up to 2020.

Gerrymandering helps but the house will almost certainly flip if the dems maintain at least a +7 edge and right now they're +10.

Republicans 98

Democrats 17

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Red Storm user here

here's the best case scenario that actually could happen

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Likely voters gives Rs the edge.

Missouri is absolutely going red btw

58 R
40 D
2 I

If someone happens that flips the tables and turns this into a red storm then there is technically a pathway to 60 Senate seats. This presumes that every competitive election swings R, and some "safe" seats become toss-ups. NJ is one that's already pretty likely to move closer R because they're running a total cuck against the most corrupt Senator there is. What is it about NJ and corrupt politicians anyways?

Source?

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I really appreciate all the work you do, but if MN, VA, MI, ME and NJ go red then PA is probably going red too.

Because the registered voters they are using in their blue wave model are made up of blacks, Hispanics, and adults under 30, all of which have a historical rate of not voting. Quite different from likely voters modeled after ethnicity, age, and historical data.

60 40 republicans way

Is there a more in depth analysis of this somewhere?

oops, forgot to set that red as well

That's just my personal Prediction. The data within is pretty standard historically for both age and ethnicity.

You're doing good work on your Red Storm page. I'm not sure what kind of traffic you get, but it's helped me to assess the candidates in the upcoming election.

>+10
Where did you see +10?

Thank you very much. I should update it even more now though, I haven't edited it in a month.

Stay tuned for the Red Storm Armory - a .zip folder of memes, infographics, copypastas to target all relevant demographics for the midterms, so that anyone can easily shill for the cause

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I would say pushing them through r/the_congress would be s good move also to help spread them across the web. A red storm general be a good idea also.

yeah, I'm gonna start making the /rsg/ threads again, and will do so as often as I can

When does the campaigning start for the Mid-Terms or is it already underway in the respective states? Does DT hold rallies again?

primaries have already happened in quite a few states - Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc

thegreenpapers.com/G18/events.phtml?format=chronological

He held rallies because it was the first wave of primaries. The second wave starts in the middle of August so he’ll be back again.

full list of states where primaries have already happened: Texas, Illinois, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia, Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Alabama, California, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota, Maine, North Dakota, Nevada, South Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Maryland, New York (Federal Level - House and Senate; Gubernatorial primary isn't until September), Oklahoma, Utah

I'll be checking in periodically. What I've been doing to encourage some friends to vote is play on their religious beliefs and the prospect of having Roe V. Wade repealed. Another friend is working in landscaping, and he has a genuine fear that he'll be replaced by people willing to work for cents on the dollar.

Reddit is an effective tool for spreading the message far and wide. I even started seeing a few 'Avoid Russian Collusion with voter ID' memes floating around facebook.

Hey red storm user. I found something that dispels this fiction that Puerto Rican immigrants are going to turn Florida blue. If you look at the state's voter registration by party affiliation, the democrats have LOST members while the republicans have gained. dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-monthly-reports/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/ There are other records for past elections too: dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-monthly-reports/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/by-party-affiliation-archive/ In 2006 when there actually was a democratic wave, both parties had lower registration. In 2010 the republicans gained while the democrats lost. In 2014 both parties gained.

I think this kind of hints at the polls only sampling from left-leaning demographics. I don't know how democrats are doing in the rest of the country, but they certainly aren't picking up steam in Florida. I definitely expect them to under perform the polls.

Good work, user.

The only way that Republicans are victorious is if Jow Forums is patrolling the polling places in November to make sure that only the right people are voting.

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