US Midterm polls

>polls
The polls that matter, elections, have shown Democrats over performing in a big way. There's definitely a "blue wave" but how big that wave may turn out being in November is up for debate.

Attached: ramsey.jpg (550x385, 26K)

The Senate is more important than the House.

Virtually impossible for the Demoncrats to gain control of the Senate and a poor chance they will control the House.

Attached: 1517628507839.jpg (640x640, 93K)

its fake news polls like it always has.

they're more than fucked thats for sure.

The word is the NRSC has begun to sour on Montana and West Virginia and they're most excited about the Florida race, not because they think Scott has a chance, but because it drains resources from other states. And McConnell just put a four million dollar ad buy in TN because he's worried that Blackburn isn't as strong as she should be. The MO GOP is imploding allowing McCaskill to be performing surprisingly strong. The biggest problems for the Democrats are IN and ND.

There is absolutely gonna be a blue wave, but it's gonna be one guy.

>They might loose control of the house though.
what does this mean? Laws can't be passed or something? (i know nothing about how US politics works)

Here's my senate prediction. Fight me.

Attached: senatemap.png (1050x670, 108K)

>democrats
>voting in midterms
Even if they are 10% ahead, come voting time that's gonna drop down to less than 5%
if it were showing 20% then i might believe #bluewave
Its gonna be a wash probably like in terms of legislation, they're "equal"
Senate has more responsibilities and thus more power

Losing control of the House would mean that Trump would be unlikely to get anything he wanted passed. But more importantly, a Democratic majority in either chamber of Congress would give the Democrats investigative authority and subpoena power.

Attached: 2dd.jpg (300x300, 15K)

The news cycle that's going to dictate the mood and motivation of the American electorate hasn't even begun yet. It's July. Election is in Novemeber. It might as well be July 1970. Trump is HODLing patiently and waiting to play his hand. The killshot is coming. Timing must be perfect. Enough time for public to digest, not enough time for Dems to mount counter-offensive or consolidate their scattered ranks. 3rd week of September or so.

Florida hasn't had a blue senate for like 10,000 years.

According to the polls Hillary will win the presidency in November

Huh? Nelson, the Dem, is the incumbent and Bob Graham was a senator until 2005.

thanks m8s

He's going up against governor rick scott
Not sure why everyone in my state kept voting for him for governor, But he hasnt ruined florida so i dont see why he wouldnt get the support.

>or are the dems actually doing better?
If by 'better' you mean that they've clarified that they are, in fact, open borders and anti-constitution, then sure they're doing better. Whether that theme will resonate with Americans or not... We'll just have to see. I hope not, but we'll see.

the senate was intended to be appointed NOT elected
so it has way more power

Republicans are likely to lose the House, but thats not important, the Senate is what matters so Trump can get another Supreme Court Justice or two by the end of his first term

>According to the polls Hillary will win the presidency in November

Attached: Hillary Clinton for President in 2020.jpg (737x1024, 186K)

D +8

lol no

Are these the same polling organizations that said that Hillary was absolutely going to win in 2016?

Attached: Polls show Hillary Clinton has a 92 percent chance of winning.jpg (563x768, 81K)

>(((((((((((((((POLLS)))))))))))))))))))

You didn't learned a single thing from 2016.

Attached: nate silver is fake news.jpg (2760x1775, 1.94M)

>You didn't learned a single thing from 2016.
Increasingly nervous man in a coma since November 2016...

Attached: Man increasingly nervous....jpg (684x553, 61K)

There’s probably a bunch of people who are democrat supporters around their friends but would vote republican because they really like the tax cuts

why does it seem like its so fucking easy for the GOP to maintain control of congress?? its like its not even in doubt

This sort of generic ballot poll is stupid on its face. You need to get a poll of each district and see who's coming out ahead. The entire US doesn't vote for a congress and apportion seats based on a popular vote. Shitlibs, Jews, niggers, and spics tend to be in big cities, so their vote is concentrated into less districts.

yes
as we get close to election day you'll see all these polls miraculously tighten up as the pollsters stop pushing and start reporting something closer to reality
really the deliberately incorrect polling by so many by so much amounts to voter suppression desu, we saw the same thing in 2016

democrats need like 24 seats to gain the house. no way they get that much unless rural and suburban retards don't vote

this poll is totally irrelevant. Look at the polls of the individual races. This is literally cucks in san fran, districts without elections, etc. running up the score for dems. It's a national poll, that's not how the vote works.

contrary to popular belief the GOP is a big tent, and has been swinging more populist since the late 80s/early 90s
meanwhile the Democrats have abandoned their rural and working-class base in favor of big tech, big bank coastal money with an emphasis on social issues over economic policies

Attached: map.png (713x935, 353K)

but it didn't work. MAGA

>Seven polls over the course of almost a month
Among other reasons, this is why polling is complete garbage until about September. Never trust July polls. Ever.

>This sort of generic ballot poll is stupid on its face.
Agree entirely, but if it makes the Dems think they have won already like November 2016 then I'm not saying anything.

Calling Trump supporters racists and "Basically Hitler" worked then in silencing the silent plurality, so let the dumb fucks keep on doing it.

#MAGA

Attached: Socialism never took root in america because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat (850x400, 67K)

The thing about Scott is that he was elected in '10 and '14, huge Republican years by only around 1% each time. This year a Democratic wave is expected. Regardless of how weak Nelson may appear, the same dynamic that put Scott in the Governor's mansion is likely to be the same force that keeps him out of the senate.

I hope people are this smart. My wife and I earn $700 extra a month now

>Montana going blue

Attached: bant.jpg (2544x4000, 906K)

We'll see. In general there are two conditions for a proper "wave" election.

1. One side must be energized to the point of increased voter turnout.

2. The other side is depressed to the point of decreased turnout.

The far-left is most definitely energized. But I get the impression that the Center-Left is becoming demoralized in the process. And the right is actually very energized because the Left is so crazy and radical at the moment that it's creating a strong desire to show up at the polls in order to stop them.

And turnout matters. Sufficiently lopsided turnout will give results that are completely at odds with the polls. And currently, it looks like turnout might be somewhat even, resulting in a rather indecisive midterm that isn't really a blue or red wave.

The GOP didn't get the candidate they wanted and the word is that the GOP in Washington soured on the race months ago.

The Media/Polls are wrong again. You see, these people only have so many tricks that they can pull. Making up/scewing numbers is one of them -- and it's the only reliable tricks they can use to create a conformist bias among potential voters. To the average joe, these numbers say, "Don't even bother, kid! The whole country disagrees with you and your candidates now. Everyone has seen how bad DOnald acts in public, and what a disgrace he is. Now don't even think about getting out to vote, faggot!"

But average joes are waking up, and there's little that the MSM can do about it. We called their fucking bluff in 2016, found out they're full of shit, and we'll keep calling their bluff until these pussies are gone and forsaken from mainstream politics ever again.

>but it didn't work. MAGA
It did, just not the way (((they))) wanted it to

#MAGA

Attached: Der Trumpenfuhrer.jpg (397x265, 46K)

what can I do if I live in a place like NY or CA which will go blue at the state level no matter how I vote? I'll obviously still go out and vote for republican candidates, but it feels very pointless

Indeed. While the Dems are super energized, the GOP is more energized than the Dems would like. However, around the country in all of these special elections we're seeing swing voters go for the Dems in big numbers. And FL isn't exactly a super conservative-red state. It's relatively up the middle.

the real BTFOing will be the next Census. in the next Census illegal immigrants will no longer count towards House seats so the Democrats will be BTFO and lose like 6 seats that will be picked up by Texas, Montana, etc.

A lot of these special elections were held last year. And most of the ones that went the Democrats way featured moderate "Blue Dogs" like Doug Jones and Conor Lamb. Since then, the Left has completely lost the plot and the Primaries saw a lot of radicals and socialists win their nominations while the GOP had more, let's say "orthodox" candidates.

If the Democrats wanted to continue with the success they had in the special elections, they should have continued using the playbook used in those elections instead of doing the exact opposite of what worked.

Sure GOP didn't, but conservatives did. Tester's poll numbers have fallen, and Montana decisively voted in favor of Trump.

Good luck the Democrat party is splintering and a third probably socialist party may soon appear which will mainly hurt the democrats
youtube.com/watch?v=Ps7xmW-9LXQ&feature=share

Attached: 27EB7A26-BA2A-4D66-AA6A-C7DD14A99288.jpg (1525x2033, 433K)

I've seen no evidence that the media or polls have corrected their biases so I'm disinclined to believe anything they report on the matter.

Tester certainly has reason to still be cautious, but the word is that the GOP has lowered their expectations.

Other than Cortez beating Crowley, which far left radicals have defeated incumbents. The truth is the Democratic party is pretty damn united. Politicos and journalists have been waiting for the Democratic Civil War of 2018 for almost a year and half and it hasn't happened. That narrative was ordained. And it hasn't happened. Of course the articles and headlines were already written with blank spaces prepared for the applicable proper nouns, and those "journalists" are beginning to dust them off since that New York primary. But the reality doesn't match that preordained narrative.

>while the GOP had more, let's say "orthodox" candidates.

Attached: fadafafcaf.png (1256x450, 62K)

Something to note. Special elections typically trend toward the party that loses the Presidency. Case in point: Scott Brown. That's just one anecdote, but it closely mirrors what happened with the Alabama election.

other than giant tax cuts for the rich, have republicans even done anything?

ffs leaf

And, out of all the candidates that won their primaries, which one has been made the face of the entire party going in to the midterms? Who is being talked about and having their face blasted on millions of screens across the nation? That's going to have an effect.

Meanwhile These guys have basically disappeared into the ether, never to be seen again. And almost all of them are "sacrificial lambs" in safe blue districts that only won the nomination because the state GOP and any serious would be politicians aren't going to waste time and money on lost causes.

Attached: senate poll wv.png (862x89, 14K)

where do they grow u retards

Attached: maga brain.png (645x968, 100K)

But again, that's just the narrative being pushed by an isolated and out-of-touch Beltway-Manhattan journalistic elite. While the Democratic party is certainly moving to the left, it's not moving that far left.

pretty good

here's the real one tho

cap this

fug

Attached: 2018 senate race july update.png (1050x670, 108K)

.

Attached: senate poll TN.png (864x113, 18K)

Kike

Exactly. Manchin is remarkably popular and resilient, which is what got him there in a special '10 election and in '12 when he won a full term of his own outperforming Obama in WV by almost 40%. He did it once. And it's looking more likely that he'll pull it out again. Morrisey hasn't performed the way he was expected to thus far.

Narratives of that nature move votes. Especially in midterms, where most people are voting for partisan "brands" instead of specific candidates. Most people don't even know who their House Representative is. Senators and Governors are often a lot more "personal" in the way their races go. But the House will be determined almost entirely by "brand."

u work for the RNC?

you're more well spoken than most of these right wing retards

The polling in FL is likely to go a bit back and forth but the underlying dynamics of the electorate will likely put Nelson over the top. And in TN, while the electorate may not be sufficiently "woken up" yet, with partisanship likely to become sharper the closer we get to election day, Bredesen is the best Dem candidate possible in a state like TN.

that TN poll is amazing

>This year a Democratic wave is expected

Attached: Doubt.jpg (467x263, 24K)

I don't work for the RNC, but I know a guy who works for the NRSC and he feeds some gossip my way every so often.

After Alabama, Democrats should have a massive African-American vote registration in MS. There are 2 Senate races there this year and the state is 1/3 A-A

Enjoy your truck and acid attacks.

>These guys have basically disappeared into the ether
I'm sure they'll get plenty of free publicity when it gets closer to the election.

>But I get the impression that the Center-Left is becoming demoralized in the process.

Seriously though, is #WalkAway more than a meme?

Attached: The Democrat's Ocasio-Cortez starts to go Mental for Marxism.jpg (1200x864, 185K)

Bro, I'm from MS and I can tell you that the incredibly large A-A population is responsible for at least 70% of Mississippi's bad reputation, even if the leftists don't like to acknowledge their accidentally looking down on their precious black pets. But, yes. And no. Those two races this year are very unlikely to be competitive. The white vote in MS has solidified in the past 20 years as solidly GOP and is unlikely to go for a Democrat unless the GOP candidate was accused of similar behavior as Roy Moore was in AL.

Interesting. What's his general sentiment?

she wants to raise taxes on wall street and have $15/hour min wage

u retards need to get a grip she just triggers u incels because she's a qt

Attached: alexandria1.jpg (801x801, 57K)

The pollsters (US media) are free to fuck with the polls all they want until the election is close at hand.

Fair enough of course it's an outside shot but it would be good for enthusiasm and like u said with GOP in FL, it would pull some GOP resources into what should be considered a safe seat

that being said with all the Koch and dark Russian money now, i don't see how money is even a problem for the GOP

We'll find out election night. If it isn't a meme, then a Red Wave will sweep the nation and reduce the Democrats to a fringe rump for two years. Also, the pollsters are going to have an even worse night than in 2016, because things like #WalkAway are very hard to measure ahead of time.

This

Generally...the 2018 Senate map hasn't turned out to be the "cake" they thought it would be. The GOP should be looking at a pickup of at least 3 seats (likely MO, IN, and ND) if not more, except that Trump has behaved in ways that change the entire nature of the national "conversation." A hypothetical President Rubio or Bush or Kasich wouldn't have led the GOP into such a difficult terrain. He also says that had Hillary won in '16 then the GOP would have had a strong shot at a 60 seat majority. I tend to agree with him.

Again, he's not saying the GOP is likely to lose the Senate...yet. He's saying that it's not looking as promising as it once did and that his people are quietly becoming pessimistic about a lot of races that should be a joy to contest.

If he honestly thinks that Jeb!, or Rubio, or Kasich would be looking at a better map this year, then he should probably get another job and you should probably take everything he says with a grain of salt.

Yeb!, Rubio, or Kasich wouldn't have approval ratings in the 30's and wouldn't sabotage their message every morning at 4am with a new tweet. These are guys who know how to play politics and soon enough it's going to dawn on you that Trump doesn't have a clue. He's not the malevolent force the left claims, nor the crusader claimed here on Jow Forums. He's a blank slate.

>it feels very pointless
Get used to it. The constituencies are essentially rigged (gerrymandered) to have a particular result and only a small number of them usually come into play i.e. when a candidate fucks up or the rare occasions the voter base swings violently away from (((the plan)))

Hillary rigged the vote like fuck, but still didn't win, because she could only rig it in the places she was strong in which were already hers.

Still dumb bitches gonna be dumb bitches I guess.

Attached: Hillary regales the nursing home.jpg (600x397, 156K)

>The GOP should be looking at a pickup of at least 3 seats (likely MO, IN, and ND)

Not net though, because it looks like they'll lose NV, AZ and possibly TN.

ND will be very tough for Heidi. Almost a gimme for the GOP. MO and IN could be very close. Still lots time till Novembah and I have no doubt the Dems will once again be unprepared for what kind of tricks the GOP/Russians are going to pull.

Running behind in polls I would think would encourage people to campaign harder, and give dems a sense of complacency.

Definitely happened with Trump.

>He's not the malevolent force the left claims

he's worse. He's a corrupt billionaire globalist conman plutocrat who is indebted to the Russians.

he's no stable genius tho i'll give u that

Attached: stable genius handshake.jpg (620x349, 35K)

Good Lord, you're hopeless. It's not just how fired up the Left is, it's also how fired up the Right is. Trump has done wonders for Conservative Morale. And I think you'll find that he has far more appeal with the Center than you seem to realize. And yes, the more radical Left is pushing the Center-Left away. And most people don't give a damn about Trump's Tweets.

that other guy is probably the first time I can tolerate a conservative/right winger/Republican on this board because he's not a complete retard/blatant shill

We'll see in November. There is a dynamic shaping up this election cycle and it shouldn't be the way it is.

and the dotard just tweeted

twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1021234525626609666