DEMS WILL TAKE THE HOUSE

They won't. Look at the some of the data, the average person in the US in the street doesn't care about Russian collusion, gays, global warming. They care of immigration, public safety, income issues. The bulk of the voters doesn't even go on the websites where Dems vomit up their crap.

Because its a carrot on a stick for democrat voters.
>no really the dems will take the house and we can impeach drumpf
Neither will happen, of course.

Wrong. It was a blowout.

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Don't focus on analyzing polls. We should be focusing on increasing voter turnout like Jow Forums did rather well during 2016. But, this year, it's leftists who are energized. Not right wingers.

If nothing changes, the Democrats will win the House. Then, Trump is a lame duck on domestic issues & immigration for at least two years.

You aren't helping you shithead. Hillary was only 80K votes away from being the president. Stop living in a fantasy.

National polling or generic ballot polling =/= who wins enough House districts to have a majority. Dems are doing better on a generic ballot, but if you look at what districts are competitive I'm not seeing 25 flips from R to D, which is what has to happen

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Bookies who make the odds get there news from the media who outright lies it happened with brexit and trump it will happen again

>right wingers
Oh, hello. Greetings, fellow conservative.

No. It was a blowout.

I'm aware of that, but some Pennsylvania seats are already guaranteed to flip in 2018.

It's these suburban districts (where all the #NeverTrumpers live) that have potential to flip blue.

obama won ohio by over 100 thousand votes
that was considered incredible as ohio is always closer than 100 thousand votes
how many votes did trump win ohio by? 70,000?

Is that a fucking life alert necklace? I mean I get that it goes with that outfit but jesus christ Hillary get it together

Why do these girls look so disgusting to me? Like, I can just look at them and tell they are disease-ridden fleabags.

You're either a shill or a useful idiot. It doesn't really matter.

Trump won Ohio by over 500K votes. But with the 80K I'm talking about Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

I'm thinking about putting money into the markets on this though because shares of "GOP majority House 2018" on Predict It seem waaaaaaay undervalued. The current rate is like 34 cents for a GOP majority share, 66 cents for Dems. That means basically doubling my bet if I'm right about GOP keeping the House.

*just under

Is there a site that shows recent polls? If you don't go off the polls you have to go off of the precedent that the controlling party looses seats in the midterms

The right is now the party of trump. The party of Little Marco is finished. The right will vote like they did to keep Trump from getting impeached. Because the D's will do it if they get the house.

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>suburban voters
>nevertrumpers
you are an idiot shill.

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All betting Markets had Hillary last election
> thread

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I agree man. They're not attractive. I can't put a finger on exactly why either. The one on the right almost seems to not be 100% white. Big jaw and wide mouth. The one on the left has a traditionally appealing face, but it's like the whole package just ruins it's allure. I'm with you on this one buddy.

mhmm.

I said Democrats will win "If nothing changes". I'm not counting out the Republicans winning.

>A big factor in Trump's victory was how worried people were of a Clinton victory. I don't see that same enthusiasm and fear among the right this year.

Agreed. Trump's core supporters are happy with him because he's largely delivering on what he promised, they're somewhat less happy with the GOP overall because they're still the swamp. I don't see the big constituencies he pulled coming out hard for the midterms, especially since Trump isn't focusing his time and energy trying to get them out. The Democrats, on the other hand, have all the passion at the moment, the shine that being the party in opposition gives for any voter that has a beef (no matter how irrational or unrelated), and a base that has been acting like the sky is falling for the last 18 months.

I don't think its accidental that a guy like Paul Ryan isn't running again. I don't think the wave of safe-district GOP retirements are accidental, either. The GOP knows that the Dems have some structural advantages and that Trump's has pissed off enough people that it might make a difference in the generals if his supporters don't show for him.

I think that explains a lot of the GOP behavior. Right now you either have people fawning over Trump or just trying to fade into the curtains. Thats not a good position for the party in power to be taking going into the midterms, but everyone is still afraid that Trump was a fluke and they don't want to get dragged down with him. Unfortunately, if they flinch and the GOP takes a beating I suspect the survivors will blame it on Trump rather than on themselves and there will be a primary challenge.

>

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018#Election_predictions

>179766073
see above link and tell me how to get to 25 districts flipping to D. because I count 23 max and that includes the Pennsylvania redistricting

>The Republicans
Oh, hi fellow The Republican.

Reminder, it's morons like this guy who were going on and on about how Roy Moore was gonna BTFO the Democrat.

>Can someone explain why betting markets are so confident that the GOP will lose the House?

It happens every midterm

>The party of the incumbent president tends to lose ground during midterm elections: over the past 21 midterm elections, the President's party has lost an average 30 seats in the House, and an average 4 seats in the Senate; moreover, in only two of those has the President's party gained seats in both houses.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election

On what platform are Dems running? Trump hate? More immigrants? Raise taxes?

Normies are comfy right now with the direction the country is headed in. You'd have to be a fool to think people are suddenly going to vote Democrat.

>Roy Moore
You keep exposing yourself, shill.

>stepsiblings

Gaayyyyyyyyy

The House will hold and the Senate will balloon.

I believe the polls should be ignored because they're now claiming they were polling for popular vote rather than electoral college during a Presidential election

They only look at the seats that Hillary won with a Republican congressman, they don't look at the Trump won with Democratic congressman which makes the margins a little less healthy. Very unlikely the Republicans lose congress.

Like it or not, Trump hate is a powerful factor. Remember how powerful "Clinton Hate" was in 2016?

Yeah I'm aware of the historical trend, but it's not some invisible hand on election day, it should be reflected in recent polling.

You're absolutely right about how generic ballot polling on the national, or even State, level is pretty much worthless as a predictor here. I think the Democrat's plan right now is to close the gap as much as is possible and offer some purple district Republicans who are fearing primary challenges in 2020 a Thurmond deal.

I don't think it will work, but i think thats the play they're trying to line up.

>no quotation marks on Trump hate
>puts quotation marks on Clinton Hate
mhmm.

You're a big guy.

>starts shrieking like a faggot

One would hope, but the GOP doesn't seem to have a lot of faith in that prediction. They're behaving like a party under fire despite being in control of all three branches and coming off of an upset victory for the Presidency.

I think the thing we need to keep in mind is that the swamp isn't just Democrats, its a hell of a lot of Republicans, too. A lot of cautious, paranoid, actual baby boomers who are afraid of change and haven't seen the world outside of their well-funded bubbles for decades. I'm not sure I trust them not to fuck it up.

youre full of shit

shillary was -600 favorite to win at every book

>Trump isn't focusing his time and energy trying to get them

I think we will see this change in the coming months. Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.

Roy Moore would have won if McConnell hadn't sabotaged him with the write in campaign. That and retards who are too stupid to recognize the sudden repe victims that come out of nowhere 3 decades after the fact.

How are polls looking?
Republicans will keep Congress if Dems keep pushing further Left and campaign for abolishing ICE

I'm not talking about what odds bookies were taking, I'm talking about online betting markets

Trump hate was at its peak during the election and he still won. Trump says dumb shit but overall hes an effective president.

go back to 2016 and you can see Rahm Emmanuel saying that "2018 isn't going to happen"
somehow the Democrats got it in their minds that they could retake the House based on some crazy plan
they keep referencing the 2006 midterm but forgot about the 2002, and ominously Trump has almost the same party approval level among Republicans as Bush did after 9/11

nbcnews.com/politics/elections/sanders-wing-party-terrifies-moderate-dems-here-s-how-they-n893381

>DNC plans on cucking Bernie and the progressive wing again.
>The game plan is literally "Get nevertrumper republicans to vote for us"
>"Where progressives see a rare opportunity to capitalize on an energized Democratic base, moderates see a better chance to win over Republicans turned off by Trump."

Literally Democrats are going to campaign on "BUT RUSSIA" and "IF YOU'RE REPUBLICAN AND HATE TRUMP, VOTE FOR US" if you think this is a winning message you're delusional. Swing voters are basically a myth at this point, elections are won by energised bases and large turnout, yet Democrats keep trying to go after the mythical "Republican moderate" and while the progressive wing does a good job of doing it, the DNC can't stand them because the DNC want to be the party of McCain and Bush so they're going to kneecap their own grassroots.

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>retards who are too stupid to recognize the sudden repe victims that come out of nowhere 3 decades after the fact.

That's why he lost. Idiot Republicans believed the bullshit the media was spewing, and didn't turn out to vote.

I hope so, but a president can only hit so many districts at once and Trump's magic is that he's so good in person. Thats a lot of rallies and in a lot of cases they're going to have to be rallies to support people who haven't supported him.

The reason so many are stepping down is because GOP exacts term limits on Committee chairmanships.
thehill.com/homenews/house/359044-retirements-shines-spotlight-on-gop-term-limits-for-chairs. Stop with the fainting. We will be fine. Just vote.

I don't think normies are fully Trump given some of his not so great moments.

interesting, good point
I counted the daily kos column because it was further right, thats like the most biased D.
66 of them were at least lean R, and it says republicans need 72 to keep the house. And a bunch of the tossups are incumbent Rs.

will be fun to follow as this heats up but I agree that the betting markets are sort of weird

>Idiot Republicans
Oh hi.

>McConnell hadn't sabotaged him
Sure, but if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. Folks are going to sabotage and settle scores and do stupid shit because they're afraid of the optics. McConnell's whole problem with Moore was that he didn't want someone who was going to run their mouth, dominate a news cycle, and behave independently. Moore was actively sabotaged by the GOP because he looked like he might be another Trump. Think about that.

>that and the retards who are too stupid
They're going to be in every election and in every district. You can bet the Dems are going to ride that horse until it dies.

I expect lowest turnout in decades.
Youth is supposedly going to be low, some article had 28%. Some tried to point out the poll was conducted through mail, even though mail-in voting is only increasing. If they can't be bothered to go through mail and fill out a political poll, why would they get out to find a polling place and vote?

Trump’s magic is at he is a winner. Stop with the dramatic whinging. Just get out and vote and get your people to vote.

I can't wait to see Dems heads explode when they LOSE SEATS in the Senate.

Are you really a Trump supporter and a Republican?

Thats a part of it, sure, but it doesn't explain the retirement of a young, powerful Representative like Ryan. I'm concerned that the GOP, a party who didn't support Trump until they had literally no other option, is starting to have second thoughts. If they lose their nerve they're going to lose seats.

You're right, though, we need to get out the vote. A low turn out midterm is the Democrat's most realistic path to victory and its the one thing they have zero ability to influence.

Because the NSA/CIA have no choice but to fix the midterms for the Dems

If Republicans won all the Senate elections in states Trump won in 2016 they'd have over 60 votes in the Senate. You want to get rid of the 1965 Immigration Act? This is the only realistic way to accomplish that.

Winning 2-3 Senate Seats is hardly a victory given the opportunity we have.

The House will lose 5 seats and the Senate will pick up
>FL
>IND
>MO
>ND
We are sitting pretty.

A Republican, fuck no. A Trump supporter, yes. The swamp is about more than just the letter after their names. The GOP needs a short leash. Just because they're better than the Dems doesn't mean they're good.

Every GOP candidate since Reagan, excepting Trump, has been shit. The only reason the Republican Party is preferable now is because it is becoming nationalistic.

remember when the "generic ballot" was +20 for Dems?

that was fake news.

just like in 2016.

That still wont happen. Too many bought and paid for GOP establishment shills by the big business lobby.

T H I C C

Hilary looking a lot healthier. Hope she runs in 2020.

>HEY GUYS THE DEMS WILL WIN
>GIVE US YOUR SHEKELS AT THESE ODDS
>OH SHIT DEMS LOST
>NO REFUNDS GOY

At least Flake and Corker are retiring.

The NRSC are faggots that are literally wringing their hands thinking Blackburn isn't safe with a double digit margin. They're fucking elitist assholes who I guarantee are never Trumpers and wanted a Kasich-Huntsman ticket.

But what does Nate Silver predict?

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They do this every election for Dems. Then as election gets closer they reign in the results to the truth so as not to look like morons. The whole reason is to demoralize the poll losers to not turn out. Thing is, no one believes their bs anymore.

>guise right-wingers like me
>are about to get rid of 1965
>picking up seats is hardly a victory
>be super concerned
You keep exposing yourself as a concern shill.

Ryan isn’t yiung and powerful. He has been in office for decades.

Dems will probably pick up around 10 seats in the house and R's will win a 1 or 2 in the senate. Dems are going to have a REALLY bad time in states with a Republican governor. Most republican governors have put in strict voter id laws that will ravage Dem "turnout" in suburban areas around big cities. One of Trumps big mistakes was making that a priority in congress in the spring. Because if he does it now the dems will rally around "DAS RACISTS (tm)" and push blacks to vote in mass.

tldr: With the Dems bank vaults near empty they are going to have trouble feeding their ground game machine that turns up dead bodies to vote. Blue wave is just a trickle

Dems are literally running on dumb cunts like Ocasio who want full blown socialism (aka Venezuela).

They are fucking done. No sane individual will vote for that.

That's right. Trump got 300+ electoral votes. When he had a "1% chance" to win. Imagine that.

I don't know, I think the Rs are going to get 5-6 senators
the midterms are usually where Republicans make up lost ground, but since Trump carried the senate in 2016 they're going to gain

I think they suffering from feminism

I do agree that if the GOPe doesn’t stand with Trump, a dozen seats will be lost. But I promise you we will hold e Hoise and pick up at least 4 in the Senate.

She wants to.

He's 48 years old. The guy easily has 25 years left in his political career.

Country club wing of the GOP are traitors to the American people same as the neocons. If Trump wins in 2020 we cam start the purge and make the GOP populist.

We will pick up a minimum of four Senate seats.
>FL
>IND
>MO
>ND

Perot wasnt shit.

Ok I re-examined the whole list and I got to 30 potential flips from R to D. A lot of these districts are actually classified as tilt or lean R, and Dems could only lose 5 of these races, assuming no upsets in the safe seats. The California districts, maybe the Pennsylvania and New York districts? Ok. But all of these? I'm not even sure about Martha McSally's seat in AZ 2 going blue.

Arizona 2
California 10
California 25
California 39
California 45
California 48
California 49
Colorado 6
Florida 26
Florida 27
Georgia 6
Illinois 6
Illinois 12
Iowa 1
Michigan 11
Minnesota 2
Minnesota 3
New Jersey 7
New Jersey 11
New York 19
New York 22
North Carolina 9
Pennsylvania 1
Pennsylvania 5
Pennsylvania 6
Pennsylvania 7
Pennsylvania 17
Texas 23
Virginia 10
Washington 8

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unfortunately for Democrats the only place that nevertrumpers are relevant is Virginia, where the Democrats are expected to hold on to the senate seat anyway
can't squeeze blood from a stone; the nevertrumpers bailed back in 2016 and there aren't many left in the GOP
they have an outsized presence but people like McCain, Ryan, Gowdy, Corker, Flake etc. are all retiring, they'll be gone soon