ITT
We try to predict the senate midterm outcome
270towin.com
Post your predictions
2018 Midterm
Jason Lee
Other urls found in this thread:
realclearpolitics.com
realclearpolitics.com
realclearpolitics.com
realclearpolitics.com
realclearpolitics.com
270towin.com
en.wikipedia.org
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
twitter.com
Juan Bailey
I'm expecting the rust-belt to get more competitive, but I don't really see it flipping. Most of these toss-ups are going to drift further republican. The average person who goes to the ballot not knowing anything about the election in these states is probably going to be voting. NJ should be more competitive, but Hugin isn't making anything happen.
Brayden Watson
I predict a brown wave
Kayden Campbell
Oh is India having an election too?
Brody Wright
Nevada and West Virginia are leaning dem, they'll likely go blue. ND, IN and MO are kinda hard to predict they are true toss ups.
AZ has a decent chance of going blue, same for TN.
The most reasonable scenario is either 51-49 DEM, or 52-48 REP. I find it unlikely it will be a 50-50 split due to how contentious politics has become.
Cameron Cruz
Change my mind
Chase Thompson
¡Jeb! resurgence
Dominic Watson
Nevada doesn't lean dem. RCP only has Rosen up by 0.6%. I expect Heller to pull through because he's the incumbent. My argument for West Virginia going red is that there aren't many hard-liner democrats in that state to come out and vote in retaliation against Trump. But there are a ton of Trump supporters there that are voting because he told them to. It's an interesting state because most voters there are actually registered democrat because it used to be a democratic state, so you can't just expect them to vote R based on the letter next to their name. But the race is essentially Trump vs Manchin, and I expect Trump to win. AZ does have a decent chance of going blue. But now that the primaries are over, I think McSally will get more support, since it is a republican state. TN isn't going blue. They have an open primary, meaning that people can vote for whoever they'd like. Blackburn got twice as many votes as the democrat. That means that TN already went to the polls, received a ballot with both Blackburn and Bredesen, and chose Blackburn.
Ethan Martinez
Michigan-Blue: realclearpolitics.com
West Virginia-Blue:
realclearpolitics.com
Tennessee-Blue:
realclearpolitics.com
Indiana-Blue:
realclearpolitics.com
The toss ups in MO, FL and AZ will determine majority.
Jaxson Cox
LMAO
Noah Garcia
On a side note, I hope that Canadian Ted Cruz we voted out of office. We shouldn't have an illegal alien representing us.
Jayden Gonzalez
>realclearpolitics.com
saying how it is
prove me wrong faggot
Blake Price
Reminder that in 2016 the republican senate candidate in Wisconsin outperformed the polls by 6.1% and in Indiana by 9%. Look through these
realclearpolitics.com
Elijah Gonzalez
One major factor is that turnout is vastly different during election and primaries
2016 election and the AL senate race proved that, admittedly things can be rather unpredictable but it is possible for AZ and TN to go DEM
def close races
Ayden Ortiz
It's certainly possible for them to go dem, but if I were betting money I would bet R.
Justin Rogers
Republicans will win. But only by a hair.
Ian Morgan
Also NV is leaning DEM
Bentley Carter
Fuck beto and fuck you.
Grayson Thompson
kek
Kevin Evans
I already said in the post you're replying to that Rosen was ahead in the polls. But 0.6 still isn't lean dem, it's tilt.
Dominic Moore
How do they poll people? Is it just cold cals to boomer land lines?
Zachary Sanchez
>270towin.com
That RCP poll is from July, buddy. 270 has Rosen ahead by 5% in a poll from a week ago.
Get over it.
Joseph Ross
>a democrat biased polling company en.wikipedia.org
Shocking!
Nathaniel Parker
meh, all pollsters have biases
if you want to go that route we can selecting polls that can back whatever the hell we want
is that poll baised? possibly (in your mind certainly) but the pattern overall behind polls is that it is going more to the dem side.
Levi Davis
That's why I was citing the RCP average, because it aggregates polling data. I said from the beginning that the democrat had the advantage in polling.
Zachary James
GOP 57, DNC 40, 3 toss ups
Jayden Ward
special elections are not general elections. Primary turnout in AZ is basically similar to 2016 and 2012, most likely McSally will win by a 5% margin.
TN will not go blue at all.
>m-meh! dey all gots biasesd!
>in your mind maybe (even though PPP openly admits they're a Democratic polling organization and this is widely known)
Assblasted libshit detected
Liam Lopez
Heller is despised in Nevada, but there are a lot of right-wingers there who could be persuaded to vote his way. True toss-up.
McSally will probably scoop up the Ward and Arpaio supporters once she gets Trump's endorsement and win by a 5 or less margin. Republican, most likely.
TX and TN are obviously Republican and only libshits desperate screaming about muh beaner uprising or muh rednecks against Trump will disagree.
In FL Nelson is less popular than both Trump and Rick Scott and Scott is outspending him. Will probably go Scott by a small margin of less than 5 percent.
MO, ND, IN will probably go Republican.
WV, MT, OH are full of "blue dog" rural retards who are happy with their shit-tier liberal senator. One of them might flip, or they might all go blue. Smart money would be on WV though, if any of them go, since Manchin is openly pro-planned parenthood now and gun grabbing now.
NJ and VA are the wildcards. In NJ the Republican is a wealthy moderate massively outspending Menendez, who is hated due to being immensely corrupt and being a human trafficker. The Rep might be hurt by Trump's tax bill though, but this one could surprise us. In VA Trump's approval was down at 38% a year ago when Gillespie lost, but since then his approval has shot upwards to 45%- roughly near where Kaine is. The Republican is poorly funded, but knows how to channel Trump. Race will be closer than it should be, will spook Kaine at how close he comes to being unseated. Possible that Hillary shenanigans might damage Kaine enough to take him down by a hair.
That indiana poll oversamples people from the liberal districts and oversamples women. It is not accurate for that state.
The TN poll taken after the primaries shows blackburn ahead, bredesen was only ahead because of name recognition before blackburn was the nominee.
Stay mad, libshit.
Brayden Roberts
I haven't really seen any argument for VA flipping. It seems safe. Is Corey's issue really just money? If only Jow Forums had the ability to no refunds like reddit does. There seems to be a lot of candidates who thought they would get the grassroots support Trump did, and alienated the establishment republicans in order to get it; but ended up with neither.