Reminder the 2/10 is about a month off inverting and will be inverted in 2019.
Reminder the 2/10 is about a month off inverting and will be inverted in 2019
Andrew Gonzalez
Colton Reyes
It's all on schedule isn't it Bruce? You think anyone here'll notice? So what's your plan?
Isaiah Gray
What does that mean?
Nathan Bell
I'm renting, like 90% of my cash is in high interest savings, 10% in shares. My cash is for buying a home and I won't be risking it in shares now. So long as I beat inflation I'm content.
I expect US fed to increase rates through 2018/2019 and then begin to drop them in 2020. The increased rates in 2019 will depress Aus real estate prices, but I expect they'll fall even further once a recession is declared in 2020, despite rates falling in response.
Plan is to buy a home and an investment property without any mortgage on either.
Means recession
Nicholas Miller
I's showing what may become an inverted yield curve comparing the 2-year and 10-year treasury bonds:
thebalance.com
It's generally seen as a signal of an incoming recession - however that's all it signals, not its nature.
Andrew Evans
Too many signals combining to ignore the writing on the wall imo.
If I'm wrong, then somehow we'll see about 5 signals be wrong. I don't see that happening.
Samuel Rodriguez
And in your mind are property prices going to keep going up after you've bought in - what if this time they slowly stagnate for a couple of decades?
Jace Thompson
what's going on with hungary and colombia?
shouldn't hungary be doing good while colombia does bad?
Nolan Gray
I don't expect real estate to stay flat for decades. I expect a recovery once credit becomes cheaper and easier again like post-GFC, probably beginning in 2021/2022. Always a bust at the end of that recovery though, but that's just the nature of boom bust unfettered speculation.
All a man can do is try to discover the 'bottom' (however so defined by him) of the real price of what he wants, and buy then. For me, and millions of us under 40, that means being ready to pounce on the next bust. I was too young to have enjoyed the post-GFC bargain bin, all the buyers then have ridden retarded growth for ten years. It's time for them to bust and me to boom.
Bentley Lee
All that shows is that Colombia is good for you if you've variously invested in it at the moment, Hungary isn't. As to whether Hungary is doing better than Colombia I'm not sure how you'd compare that - they're in totally different situations - Hungary is tightening its belt and has a trade surplus, so I suppose that should be a helpful policy for future Hungarians.
Brandon Edwards
Say however this time what happens, given some strong man regimes and shifts in geopolitics plus the increase in US interest rates, is emerging market contagion starts to turn into a sovereign debt implosion where people start to lose confidence in the bond markets - how does that affect:
1. Availability of lending for mortgages.
2. Pressure by authorities to have their shortfall made up via steadily increasing property prices to meet their pension and social care obligations?
Evan Lopez
>It's time for them to bust and me to boom.
See that's my issue - you can't play the same move twice and profit. There's no profit in doing what all the other people see also.
James Adams
cash in RAMS?
Luis Cox
I'm saving my ass off, I bought an apartment in Melbourne around 6 years ago that hasn't made a cent while everyone I know who bought houses have picked up cash. I'm an idiot but, I'm hoping mod 2019 I'll be able to pick up a decent house.. bad idea?
Michael Bennett
>So what's your plan?
Last time I was in a thread like this I got called a shill for asking this question, true story.
Lucas Clark
We are watching the dollar turn into a weapon. The US is fucking with Europe right now, among other things, to get them pissed enough to leave NATO. The lira is fucking funny, because the major bond holders are yuros and their pension system.
Josiah Harris
>So what's your plan?
Why plan? Everything's fine goyim.
Levi Gutierrez
I'm not sure if it's intentional however it'd certainly leave you in the best position for a while.
>The lira is fucking funny, because the major bond holders are yuros and their pension system.
Hmm - and Turkey's a lot less inclined to play ball if starts to be an issue than any EU member state, not with Erdogan in charge.
Lincoln Howard
The other people won't have access to credit until after I've bought. Everyone can see that it'll be bargains but most people will be refused credit for a while as normal. Then credit lending resumes and asset bubbles inflate, and I'm owning real estate while it inflates.
Yeah RAMS is nice. Need more than 1 bank though cause gov only guarantees upto 250k.
A sovereign debt crisis would be awesome for me... Not so good for all the people in EM but I don't care for them and they don't care for me.
I wrote a big of a long reply but I changed my mind after thinking. Wage growth is effectively nil at the moment in the West and I don't see that improving. That'll have a natural consequence on the ability for real estate prices to increase, as normally they're paired, so you might be onto something with long term flat prices. Rents won't jump with wages flat either, so you won't get good yield from real estate.
What do you think about that? I'd never considered a long term flat wage growth connection to long term real estate prices consequence, and now that I do, I am slightly concerned. Obviously you can always rely on most people to take out huge mortgages above their income to get a home, but that has a limit, I don't think anywhere gets above 20 years median wage for property, and most sit around 4 years median wage for prices on average.
Maybe I'll forego the investment property. I do want to buy a home though, not purely as an investment financially, but kind of socially, somewhere to raise a family and call my own and be as minimally under the thumb to other people (land lords, roommates) as possible.
Jaxon Morgan
Pic related is not good for the ability for simps to take on huge loans and inflate my land ownings in Australia.
Jaxson Martin
>listen to boomer advice and buy gold
>get justed and be down 10%
Should have bought crypto
Jose Smith
gold is a hedge my man. it doesn't do shit until their massive negative sentiment.
curiously enough so is crypto which is like penny-gold. cheap as fuck so no barrier for entry unlike gold, and appears to now be where people decide to put their cash when they're scared.
Angel Sanders
I think what you've had for years is the switching out of "ground rent" surplus which originally went to public coffers instead of being siphoned off to private institutions. A lot of people seem to forget this: You buy a house inflated on credit bids, speculation chases it higher, fine, so you sell it later, what then? You're not planning on sleeping in a tent so I assume you'll have to pay inflated prices elsewhere.
It's simply a huge speculative bubble far beyond the actual utility of housing - all bubbles have a similar pattern to them, a slow rise time, some insane peaks and then some dead cat bounces after as people figure this isn't yet finished. The only people who benefit are the banks who have a longer / deeper siphon of people's lifetime incomes.
It so happens this speculative bubble started at the turn of the 1980s - so most people haven't really any sort of experience to compare it with anything - this is all they've known which is why it's so easy for people to herd themselves into losses.
As to how wages factor into it I don't know - you're probably looking at some sort of restructuring of the financial system with all the political upheaval that it goes along with, usually you'd expect that to shift opinion towards stronger public pressure and use of labour as a means to strong-arm capital, however you're probably not going to see that too soon.
You should hold onto it I think you're next in the firing line.
Hunter Perez
Real estate in Sydney in 2018 is like Cryptocurrency in 2017. Hundreds of thousands of people became millionaires without doing anything but buying an asset.
The median price in 1990 in Sydney is something like $195,000 ($377,000 adj. infl.), but $1,150,000 28 years later. So for an entire generation of boomers who bought homes to live in, they accidentally became millionaires on paper. They've mostly come to terms that it's still expensive, so they'll be downsizing into apartments or moving regional, or never selling and giving it to their children.
But the main takeaway is you have an entire city that is as obsessed with real estate, watching retards become millionaires by doing nothing, as you had the internet being crazy about crypto in 2017. However we also saw how quickly people were willing to turn away from crypto in 2018, and I expect that'll also be mirrored in Sydney real estate after a bubble burst.
Ethan Nguyen
Yeah but crypto was mercifully fast - real estate bubbles can last decades - that's what's so sad, it's an inter-generational swindle essentially.