Midterm Elections

>48% of the vote
>I win
No sweetie.

>she won the popular vote by 3 million
>including the 4.4 million votes cast by illegals and corpses

but why? trump has a high approval rating...

1. They will take the house by a significant margin. It will basically be a reversal of the 2010 Tea Party wave. Republicans will hold the Senate and probably pick up 1 or 2 seats.

2. With their new majority, Democrats will wait until the Meuller investigation conveniently wraps up shortly after, basically saying what amounts to a grey area of interpretation as to whether Trump was involved in Russia meddling. This will of course be mostly bullshit but dems will jump on it anyway.

3. Dems will begin impeachment proceedings (Pelosi will argue against this but will eventually give in to public pressure from her base so she can keep her job as majority leader) and after months of shutting down the government Trump will become the first republican president ever impeached.

4. The Senate will, of course, aquit Trump and it will have all been for nothing, but the media and dems will use this as an excuse to say Trump was a tainted and unpopular president that cheated to get elected and was saved by the conspiring GOP. This will be how history books remember the process, just as they have tainted Nixon's legacy.

5. None of this stops Trump from replacing another justice before 2020.

It's too early to predict the 2020 race.

Not an argument

>vast majority is ignorant or stupid
Repubitard doesn't know about the IQ bell curve.

So she didn't win the popular vote?

Whoa! For real? I can't wait to see the objective evidence for this conspiracy theory nonsense.

>all the state polls were wrong
die in a fire you jew nigger

The silent majority is those without landline phones.

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The nice thing was that the Dems under Obama were so completely arrogant they accrued to the President a bunch of powers for executive orders that allows them to bypass Congress on almost anything of note.

The flip side to this is that if the Executive changes parties your successor can undo everything you did by fiat. Which is exactly what happened.

So worst case likely scenario with a dem House of Representatives and a republican senate is that Trump will issue more executive orders and the Senate will torpedo every "Fuck Drumph!" bill the House sends their way.

As a cherry on top if the Dems try to take Trump to Court over his executive orders who do they have to face, 5 conservative justices thst just witnessed the Democratic party try to undermine their institution and two of which have personal vendettas.

Would have won if this was a mob rule democracy, stupid degenerate

good point, this should concern us
nate copper's forecasts have an independently verified 98% accuracy rating

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>thinking polls are at all accurate... in 2018

If you actually read the details of the polls its very VERY obvious its screwed to lean democratic

One of the polls had 72% of the people polled being woman. 56% were college educated and 27% minority. All of which lean democrat
That poll had the senators in that state at a dead heat

Its going to be red tide not a blue wave

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judicialwatch.org/press-room/press-releases/judicial-watch-sues-california-los-angeles-dirty-voter-registration-rolls/
Your next implied argument is:
>that doesn't count!

can someone please explain this though. how can trump with most of the country but then do poorly in the house? besides california

> won popular vote

So she didn't win then? Ok.

This. I swear to god you will be smited by skydaddy himself if you don't go and vote.

>suing someone makes them guilty, despite having no objective evidence
>kavanaugh is innocent until proven guilty, despite having objective evidence he sexually assaulted someone
Why the double standard, Republitard?

Fuck off, democracy hating jewish shill.

so...do they have no chance to take the senate?

If anybody predicts the dems taking the house in your hearing, see if they are into betting at all. Easy money.

If you look at all the races, many of them in the high-tax states like NJ, CA, NY are revolting against republicans because of the SALT deduction...

So my thinking is, we can still hold on to power in the HOUSE, by focusing on the midland races where republicans are falling behind in states like IA, MN, IL, PA, And the more red coastal states like TX, FL and NC

Republicans will probably lose seats, but we can fight for enough to not hand over power of the chamber.

>If this happens, what can we expect?
Huge sigh of relief from Donald Trump. And his supporters will start pretending he would have built a wall if not for those dems

>objective evidence
Like with Russian interference?
And Israeli interference?
And whore interference?
And feelings interference
And more whore interference?

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Daily reminder that Brother Mate is one He'll of a good com man.

yeah dont be retarded

>hillary talking about threats to democracy
What an act.

Maybe you guys should introduce voter ID laws just to be safe.

Remember, the media is the guy in Vegas who thinks he's on a hot streak on his 7 day vacation but keeps losing his shirt, and withdraws more cash from his savings to buy another one.

>17 intelligence agencies lied about Russia
You need to add another layer to your tin foil hat.

As for the rest of that, it's not an argument. "Muh jews n evil women"

Fuck off, shill.

Which doesn't fucking matter for a reason, numbnuts.

Trump's win was a fluke. I am not impressed with it desu. He lost the popular vote by 3 million, and won PA/MI/WI by less than 1 point each. He won because Democrats didn't turn out, not because of GOP turnout.

That will never happen again.

>implementing a racist, sexist blockade to the voting process
Sorry, jewish shill, but you won't stop our democracy.

I don't know why that wasn't made a clear priority right from the outset, especially with a chance to catapult off of the circus of the Jill Stein recounts and the opportunity to effectively have a parallel investigation in to part of the Mueller probe by way of establishing what and how much actual "hacking" and by whom.

Post link. The pic is from a very good website.
Trump had like 20-30% from polls. Getting something with such probability isn't something extraordinary. Just dont expect it to happen again.

>17 intelligence agencies too scared to go against the Clinton body trail

We're a republic you daft cunt.

More gop votes would come out in California or NY if it mattered.

being such an NPC that you think popular vote matters

BLUE WAVE!

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(((polling)))

they are all wrong quads confirm red wave

>i'm just gonna double down on my conspiracy theory, despite being objectively wrong
Go away, shill.

The "blue wave" is bullshit, but. The Democrats, their donors and the "derp state" are going mental and they will do anything from bribing, to bussing illegals, digging up dead people to take over the House. As we're speaking I'm pretty sure alot of funny money and preparations are taking place to rig the vote. 2016 elections (Sanders vs. Clinton) and (Trump vs. Clinton) saw cases of "drift" which is the international standard of determining if elections are fraudulent. Meaning given a county or a jar of marbles, the more you count shouldn't cause drift that favors one candidate and we saw instances of this in 2016.

Unlike you faggot I'm not afraid to show my flag. We have voter IDs and there are plenty of minority voters.
>a racist, sexist blockade
You assume women and minorities can't get ID who's the racist sexist piece of shit now?

60 gorillion for the record

You people don't understand how fucking statistics work.

Clinton legitimately MIGHT have had a 98% chance of winning. The only way to know if that projection was inaccurate would be to hold the election 100 times. Saying the odds were wrong just because something unlikely happened is not how fucking odds work.

Look who is the WH...and it YOU that needs to go with your cheering of the biggest political prostitute to run for office.

I'm just going to counterproject because im too stupid to come up with a retort, let alone evidence of anything.

WHY ARE WE ON CLINTON?

...LOOK HOW OUR ENEMY IS TRYING TO DISTRACT US FROM KEEPING THE HOUSE

There is no way to accurately predict the House. They aren't polling all the districts and they're mostly relying on the Generic Ballot (most of it on old pre Kavanaugh circus data) rather than individual races. The Generic Ballot is basically the nationwide popular vote of Democrats vs Republicans. It's going to sway Democrat due to the cities. If the Republicans can keep it under 7% they have a chance at holding the House.

I wonder how infuriating it must be for people who voted for some of the few decent dem candidates that their votes get tossed in the "Hillary" basket, when she represents everything they despise.

>17 intelligence agencies
Please list these intelligence agencies for me. I'd love to know how the Coast Guard or the State Department or the Air Force counts as a fucking intelligence agency.

I'd also like to know why I should trust anything that comes from James Clapper's intelligence community. While you're at it, I'd love to hear why Clapper isn't in jail for lying to Congress.

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>election riged
She lost a election rigged in her favor. Would not be surpriesed if they stole millions of votes from trump and gave it to her

pic related.

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Then why do these "journalist" act as though their projections matter?

Yes but it makes it pretty likely the initial percentages were wrong. Are you into baysian economics at all?

So we won’t go out and vote

Hahaha at the end of the day, it's just a number. Has no power over reality.
You don't know what you're up against.

Timeline theme:
youtube.com/watch?v=VT6LFOIofRE

She won California by 4.3 million votes. Without all the spics and acid-droppers in California, Hillary would have lost the population election as well.

MSM didn't take into account that the mid-terms are highly predictive of voter turn out for the presidential election. I wonder what they've left out to push the truthiness of the blue wave

Because most of the time the results DO line up with the odds.

If I roll a die and you predict it will land on 3, I am correct in saying that there's a 5/6 chance it will NOT land on 3. 5/6 times my projection WILL be correct so it's important to keep in mind; the 1/6 times where it's not correct does not make the projection worthless.

>over 3 million in commiefornia where 5 million illegals are allowed to vote

whew! ya got me there

These are the same bullshit kind of numbers the "news" was pushing off, when they were claiming Dims were leading by "double digits" for Senate races.

Republicans in high tax states are being revolted against due to SALT deductions...midland races, and red coastal where Republicans have become sleepy/complacent need to be focused on.

Most Senate seats for election this year are in red leaning states.

>If this happens, what can we expect?
pic related

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He won by a landslide. He was clearly still not given enough credit.

You're not very good at fitting in. Hillary won a vote count for a game nobody was playing, score! THANK GOD we're not a direct democracy. That shit only works with small homogeneous populations.

Except the 98 percent line was bullshit. Betting agencies weren't using it.

I'm scared, bros.

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That answer would be acceptable, except Trump won Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, all states that where the polling indicated he wouldn't win. I guess you could call this chance, but its a horrible explanation. The more accurate explanation seems to be that niggers and spics refused to come out and vote for her in the same numbers they voted for Obama. I wouldn't rule out sampling error either, particularly when the people funding the polls were openly biased against one of the candidates.

The odds for a victory overall were 25%, on average. The odds that he would win in the fashion he did were almost nil. I haven't seen anyone who predicted he would win rust belt.

you're retarded, we know that they didn't run their polling properly. there were independents who got no media coverage who calculated Trump's win as much as 6 months before the election

>so...do they have no chance to take the senate?
both parties have a chance to take both

>17 intelligence agencies lied about Russia
agreed

You mean the same analysts that predicted Trump had 1% chance to win?

Most people don't understand statistics.

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Is this a Nate Dirt forecast?

Looking forward to the Republican win!

And that 1% happened. Trump wont by super slim margins in a few states that gave him the win.

>media predicts massive blowout in favor of Dems
>Dems lose
That's literally an argument. Your bait is weak, 1.5/10

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Republicans said ignore the polls in 2012 and they turned out right. "Skewed polls" was this whole buzzword then. Polls are more right than wrong.

In a statistics class now. It sucks. What’s your standard dev?

Yes

It's weird that people don't look for easily available information on the internet and instead cite some random number pulled out of their asses.

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Pretty much all analysts, including Fox News and the Wall Street Journal, project the Republicans will regain control of the house.
When this happens, what can we expect?

The 98% was from the Huffington Post, a site the left loves to pretend is credible. It's also important to note that the 28% is Trump's chance of winning. The odds that he would win Pennsylvania, NC, Wisconsin, Florida, and Michigan was almost zero. Nobody predicted he would win 285 votes, much less 308.

Just as many people are pissed that "rapist" kavanaugh got confirmed by those darned republicans even after all the "evidence" and "bat temperament" and "partisanship" etc... The party lines haven't moved, the trenches just got deeper. Nothing's changed.

No way that happens.

>Please take these numbers from my ass
Pennsylvania 23%
NC 44.5%
Winsconsin 16.5%
Florida 44.9%
Mishigan 21.1%

Also combined percentages would not be multiplied in this case because it isn't random and is instead systematic polling error.

>systematic polling error.
At least we can agree on that. Your friends appear to believe it was random chance that the polls were wrong.

>would not be multiplied in this case because it isn't random and is instead systematic polling error.

Can you explain how you could possibly differentiate between the two in this case?