How will trump voters rationalize getting obliterated in november
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NINETY SEVEN PERCENT
I remember the numbers in 2016, what were they 98% to 2% in favor of shitlery?
They will screech about it being rigged by da jooz
if they're projected to win, then they're definitely losing.
We're gonna vote our asses off
80% for Hillary
Nate Silver's 3 in 4 is pretty much a 50/50 in reality. The sad thing is, that's still more accurate than most any other pollster.
>tfw Nate Slag was the sanest of them all
Trump should keep hammering the arsonist meme. Can't get complacent with these little savages.
Right, Hillary won as the polls predicted
kek
Betting odds are the only odds you should look at mate.
CONFIRMATION BIAS
>(((((((((((538 FORECASTS)))))))))))))))
>nate silver
1 in 3 doesn’t mean 100%
Did they oversample democrats by 12% again?
I honestly think that dems will only get control of the house at best. That's not even significant, historically that has happened to most presidents.
Where have I seen this before.
Remember to register and vote you faggots!
This is a war, we need to fight
This
REGISTER TO VOTE RIGHT NOW
www.google.com/search?q=register+to+vote
THEN VOTE IN THE FUCKING ELECTION ON NOV. 6TH
DELETE THIS. NOT HELPING.
have you stopped beating your wife?
Only alaska and Rhode island have deadlines that have passed, some are today like Florida. If you are online shitposting, take 10 mins to register.
Do it, if not pic related
use this site, not google.
voat.co
i ain't your mate, cunt
i wonder how many years of his life he lost from stress over the course of the 2016 election lol
We’re so assured of a victory we don’t even need to show up. I scheduled Election Day off and I’m just gonna play Switch and laugh at all the drumpfkins getting btfo
Not living in a based state like NH where you can register the day of. Iit only helps the out of state Dems to cheat, but it's noble nonetheless.
>polls
>made up statistics again to make sheeple follow the "masses"
Ha.
>voat.co
SPREAD this on social media!!!!
That was his final projection. Don't let him off the hook for withholding that information until the very end. He routinely had Hillary's chances of winning at 85 to 90% until the final week when convenient data came in.
Reminder that all pollsters exist to influence you to believe in their cause.
Does he actually conduct his own polls? I thought he used other poll data but was actually honest in his analysis, at least as much as he could be.
>actually honest
lol, no.
he's a paid shill.
He takes poles that exist in the press and he manipulates their results. There was a poll in particular that I remember out of Arizona that had something like a 12% Democrat oversample and his solution to that was the further manipulate the data to represent a 20% Democratic oversample.
He's a neoliberal through and through.
He omitted today's 538 story where they showed House control being a much narrower contest (now only a 50% chance of Dems gaining control) and majority odds of the GOP expanding its Senate control.
Even if they win, all they'll be able to do is obstruct the budget. That's literally it. So it'll be like the Obama years with the continuations and debt ceiling squabbles but the template will be the first Trump budget.
Barring a recession, there is no way Dems gain control of either the Senate or the White House in 2018/2020. Looking at the yield curve, though, I'd actually expect them to retake Congress in 2020 or 2022, and possibly the White House in 2024, depending on how deep and persistent the next recession is.
>when your pet monkey didn't get the new script
yeah go look at his "expert breakdown" and he adds all sorts of random numbers to get the result he wants.
t. I love nate silver only when he gives me good news
All the Trumptards deflecting to Hillary's poll numbers in this thread...fucking sad.
These will be the most butthurt gags in November.
Looking forward to that salt.
Wonder if these poor souls will return to nothingness in 2020 when Trump fails to be reelected.
Good times ahead for the Dems.
@188638653
lol stay mad
no you for you
>when trump fails to be reelected
you mean after everyone has experienced their lower taxes?
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
>Good times ahead for the Dems.
This is like being a Browns fan after they went 1 and 15 and suggesting that it can only get better from here right before going 0 and 16.
>@
you have to go back
Dewey wins tier, kys
It's a natural phenomenon. The Republican party gained 63 seats in the house in 2010. President Obama himself called it a "shellacking." Unless that record is broken, I'm not worried.
inb4 Obamaleaf damage control saying this isn't true etc etc
The House is a foregone conclusion. Even with the gerrymandering, the GOP is going to lose seats. But they have a chance to pick up seats in the Senate to balance this out.
Isn't the senate more important? Two dem justices 80 and 85 could croak any day.
Signal boost. I don't care who you vote for. But vote.
Or you could participate in our democracy...
Following the rules that both sides agree to is not cheating...
Except for the part where Trump has shown willingness to meet with the other side. Remember when he couldn't get McConnell and Ryan to step into line, so he met with Schumer and Pelosi? Because that happened...
funny, no poll says that democrats prevail at all, but sure whatever retard
I think you are missing the point. With Obama, Silver had apparently cracked the code. Then 2016 happened, and all bets were off.
No, Nate Copper takes polls and runs them through a predictive model. It’s similar to what he did in baseball which is where he got his start IIRC.
The thing is over the years he’s moved away from strictly mathematical analysis and more towards punditry. I honestly don’t think he could have gotten 72% otherwise - he’s doing the same stuff as everyone else more or less. But still, remember that this analysis is punditry.
How will 1 post by this ID?
Yes. House is way less important.
The same way we rationalized losing in 2016.
They had the odds at 1/3 for Trump winning.
Lol no he's not. (((Nate Silver))) literally doesn't know shit, because you can't poll people who don't trust you.
>how will trump voters rationalize getting obliterated in november
The media WAS 100% correct about Hillary winning in a landslide.
Never trust MSM polls. They are made by jews for sheep who give in to peer pressure.
Presidents tend to do better with their agendas when Congress is mixed. Remember when Clinton was going to pass national healthcare and had both chambers? How about when W was going to privitize Social Security and had both chambers? Neither happened...
The out of power party almost always does well im midterms. It would be great to hold onto the house but I dont expect it.
We could get in back in 2020. Trump has coat tails.
So realistically they'll take the house but lose out big on the senate.
If only there was some way we could get voter turnout for the right up. After Kavanaugh getting in, despite all the rage, it will all simmer by the time election day gets here.
Stay mad.
he only lowered it for the very last poll because he knew if he was dead wrong he'd lose all credibility so he went in between obvious victory and there isa shot she loses
You cannot forecast results with any degree of reliability in a highly chaotic system.
Oy vey Metz! Every. single. time.
I figured he had some bias, but less so than the others because I'm pretty sure most of the media's "poll numbers" are just pulled out of their ass while Nate has to at least start with real math and then twist it
How do you guys feel about the president?
Please vote here
strawpoll.me
>still thinking people answer polls honestly
my mom was an avid bernie supporter, and will be voting republican for the first time in CT because she knows that ford is a lying cunt. she'd told me but would never tell other people in our family because they are all rabid libs. my brother is voting bc his lib wife makes him, and is voting red bc he is tired of hiring about how shitty white men are. wont tell his wife or anyone because doesnt need to hear her bitch about it.
>thinking anyone will talk about their political beliefs when one side will do nothing but demoralize you if you disagree with them
The problem is that any dem victory will be portrayed as a "blue wave." The naturally occurring phenomenon of the party out-of-power picking up seats is going to be called a massive repudiation of the Pres. I don't think it is.
Don't get overconfident though. Yes, the 2016 predictions were a major fuckup on the part of statisticians, but I'm pretty sure they've been correcting their models and methods ever since. It's unlikely they will make such a huge mistake again.
Identity politics is a major problem on the left.
It won't balance it out. A vote needs to pass BOTH chambers. A larger Senate majority doesn't mean shit without a House majority.
About as poorly when Hillary won her 98% projection
Pollsters had a crisis in 2000 and 2016 because both times they thought the Dem would win, imagine that. But for some reason people actually believe in these things. Anyone with a math background should know they’re hunks if shit and a waste of time, but normies don’t know math.
Honestly, Nate Copper’s approach is better, but there’s not enough data to build a credible model.
You fucking morons are the worst.
>It doesn't even matter who you vote for, just vote!
>Go out and cast your vote for a liberal traitor that hates America and is doing everything in their power to destroy your country!
>Because voting man just do it!
Nike faggot go fuck yourself. If you don't know what's going on or what you're doing,
>DON'T FUCKING VOTE
because you're likely to wind up a fucking tool for the left as they continue to destroy this country.
Modern polls are just another form of cryptomarxist demoralization propaganda.
The Left just keeps throwing scissors, they haven't cottoned onto their tactic's failure yet.
That made me literally lol
They conducted that poll at Starbucks on Antifa night
What is hurting House republicans are those in blue coastal states and their change in SALT deduction, and an usually high number of republicans not seeking re-election.
We need to focus on districts in red coastal states where republicans should be ahead, in states like FL, TX, NC and Midland states like districts in IL, IA, MN etc
oh this shit again... just like last time right? 99% Hillary, right?
Hahaha no need hoss...Those pro dem polls are FAKE NEWS.. and Rasmussen has found that Trump has a 51% approval rating and that an astounding 30% if blacks live him too.. the very real and not take walkaway movement is running wild... The democratic party is just socialists now. Mille.ials ate leaving it in droves & the youngest generation is more right wing then ever. It's over and will never recover. We finally won the "culture wars".We can sit this one out and take it easy.
November 6th we pop some buds and have a tractor poll
Lmao
Ya but we want a wall and stop immigration won't happen with democrats
You know what to do.
Senate 85% R
predictit.org
House 67% D
predictit.org
Sen Ted Cruz R TX 79% chance of reelection.
predictit.org
Sen Jon Tester D MT 65% chance of reelection.
predictit.org
Sen Heidi Heitkamp D ND 19% chance of reelection.
predictit.org
Sen Bill Nelson D FL 52% chance of reelection.
predictit.org
Sen Clair McCaskill D MO 40% chance of reelection.
predictit.org
Sen Joe Donnelly D IN 52% chance of reelection.
predictit.org
Sen Bob Menendez D NJ 79% chance of reelection.
predictit.org
How do Dems justify a blue wave when they are 2 out of 10 in special elections ?
screencapped
98 percent chance OP is a pig fucker.
They are still underestimating the Trump effect, if you ask me.
Do minorities even vote in midterms?
Democrats never vote in midterm elections, most of their constituents are niggers spics and poorly motivated women with no agency, only the ravenous cat lady's vote in the mid terms. This will be no different.
>not 99%
They're going to lose big time.
Trump voters tell polsters "go fuck yourself" and they write it down as "Undecided".
It's gonna bite them in the ass again.
Also democrat voters are the ones stupid enough to waste time on that.
Did 2016 teach you nothing
>princeton
Shit like this is why I don't trust university polls
>HISTORICALLY
>HISTORICALLY
>HISTORICALLY
Why do you NPCs parrot this shit without understanding what it means? You just enjoy hitting the Post button?