US shale’s glory days are numbered

Wood Mac is a respectable shop and I wouldn’t completely dismiss them out of hand. The key word is ‘some’ wells and they may be hedging themselves with their clients just in case.

retard alert posted wrong graph

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>retard alert posted wrong graph
here is the correct graph

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there is more shale oil in North America than Sweet Crude in the world, I believe. Don't remember.

Due to some geological survey, they discovered there is a fuck ton of oil in the Americas but it's mixed with sand or some shit.

Price of oil was to low at the time ot make it economically feasible to extract it. So OPEC and the rest of the oil producing nations decided to help out and jack up the price of oil.

Middle East makes more money, their oil lasts longer, shale oil gets extracted ... American oil makes profit.

>. American oil makes profit.
see this

double plus retard alert (my end) this is the graph I was looking for, the decline rates are terrible. On a positive not for Burgers Bolsonoro will be elected Venezuela will be taken over by them, Brics will be fucked and essentially Venezuelan oil becomes ours to delay PO, and collapse of petrol dollar for a few more decades.

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Reveal your true geo, memeflagfag.

You're an idiot. I'm a bot. Enjoy your echo chamber.

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it is all about EROI energy returned on energy invested. You are correct there is a shit ton of energy in the states but it will also require a shit ton of energy to get that energy out. A lot of the plays are out in BFE where there is little infrastructure.
The day you need to use a barrel of oil to get a barrel of oil the whole process becomes pointless, and actually happens much sooner then a 1:1 correlation.

this is all bullshit to drive up the price of oil. there is a ocean of oil in texas. shale isnt even used really now. mainland oil production has gone through the roof and at sea gulf production fallen

They are stealing the oil. Huge convoys of tankers operate everyday transporting product to Mexico. Just like Iraq, Syria and Libya it's how they are paying for the IS invasion of the US.

care to back this statement up with any numbers? Charts of production increases?
>>ocean of oil in texas
The world is consuming 100 million barrels a day, USA around 20 million. Say you have a huge reserve on paper say 10 billion barrels, that is only enough to satisfy global demand for 100 days, US demand for 500 days.
Show the numbers.

Hey OP, can you start posting with a name so I can filter you?
Thanks in advance.

use this !!

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^^^ GREAT POST.

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Doesn't understand the difference between natural gas, shale oil and the light sweet crude Texas is famous for...

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oh no, that sucks.

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sure I do. There is a huge difference between shale oil and light sweet crude, The difference us the cost both in terms of money and or energy required to get said energy.
It is shale oil that is being touted as the savior to make American "energy independent".
The very fact that we are fracking shows we are in the late stages of the oil story and not far away from peak oil.

What point where you trying to make?

Dear mong,

Then why are you posting graphs for natural gas?

You do not understand the oil industry, how it's refined or why kerogen and tarsand is preferable to the heavy sulfur rich shit the mideast and South America produces.

That was always the case. Counterpoint was that it's actually okay, because you can scale production up/down by drilling less/more new wells in line with the demand cycle.
We shall see what happens.

>tarsand is preferable to the heavy sulfur rich shit the mideast and South America produces.
Interesting.
You're saying that sulfur fucks things up so much it's better to work with tarsand despite nominally much lower EROI?
t. amateur, do not shoot!

Then why are you posting graphs for natural gas?
>>Fuck third time posting the wrong graph, no coffee am semi retarded, having said all that the drop of of frack oil well production is terrible, pic related this time. You would know that if you knew shit about the industry.
>>You do not understand the oil industry,
I cared a lot about peak oil a few years ago, have not really looked at it since then, I probably know more about it then 99 percent of population.

If there was a abundant amount of crude oil we would not be fracking or going to the tar sands. The heavy sulfate shit you are talking about is more proof of this.
The Beverly hillbilly days of discovering oil when hunting are over, sticking a pipe in the ground and sucking out thousands of barrels a day for decades are over. We are at the last chapter of the oil stories. The oil autist will debate over the details while the plebs think we have an unlimited amount of the shit. There will be a oil shock one day then it will literally be teotwawki.

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Russian wishful thinking.

Nah, it's okay. Transport is slowly but surely moving to electric. Remaining oil can be used for chemistry where EROI matters much less.
Main problem is the left's braindead opposition to nuclear. You cannot run a modern society on renewables, as EROI is too low.
It's as if (((they))) wanted to force civilization into energy-limited "renewables only" path to ensure we stay in slavery.

I sure look forward to mother Russia running out of oil and collapsing with a thunderous roar. Wikipedia says we have like 22 years' supply left.
And it's not because I hate her, I actually love mother Russia. But the way we are now content with being a one-product-economy is disgusting to me.

Good.. Good! This opens up more potential for Canadian crude out of Alberta. Excellent.

>>It's as if (((they))) wanted to force civilization into energy-limited "renewables only"

Considering the direct link to energy consumption and economic output this makes no logical sense to me.
IMO (((THEY))) if they had there way there would be free and limitless energy so the plebs could be busy bees out there making the shekels that they can tax.
I am a capitalist own a few stocks, once the world wakes up to the fact that there is not enough energy to continue to expand the economy forever the markets will crash.

The system (((they))) control requires infinite growth on a finite planet, fraction reserve banking and compound interest force the system to either grow forever or crumble, no middle ground.
There was a report by the commissioned by the Bush administration called the "Hersh Report"

The tl:dr is that if you do not plan for peak oil 20 years before it happens you are fucked.

>Learned about peak oil only a few years ago and has paid no attention since
>Outdated graphs
Stop posting

> Sure I do
> While not understanding that light crude cannot be used for many of the things oil is depended upon (aka plastics)
Fun fact: the huge refineries between TX and LA are tooled for HEAVY crude refinement, NOT light crude. That Texas Shale is being shipped up to the Northeast and West coast before it's ever used. Fucking faggots ITT with no real understanding of the oil industry.

> t. Son of Oilmen

btw the Hirsch report was commissioned in 2005 I believe, approx 12 years ago, america since then has done fuck all to prepare for peak oil.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report

??? Do you not know how economics works?
Shale exploration dropped because Arabs reduced oil prices to fuck the U.S. and Venezuelan oil industries. Once it became economically infeasible to produce oil, the production levels dropped. Now that oil prices are rising again, price per barrel is rising and will start being profitable for American companies to produce en masse. There's a fuckton of oil in NA.
>Durr price of barrel of oil to produce barrel of oil

Read thisOur refineries, at least the majority of high production refineries, operate on Heavy crude. The pool coming from Saudi Arabia, and Texas Shale, is light crude (aka it's chemical makeup has less molecules and thus can't be used create plastics). It's why Canadian Oil Sands is still preferable and selling despite it's higher cost to extract.

> If there was a abundant amount of crude oil we would not be fracking or going to the tar sands.
Just stop. You don't know what you're talking about. You read some shit on Wikipedia and anti-oil lobbying websites and now believe you have all the information.
Get this through your think skull, you brainless mouthbreather. NOT ALL CRUDE IS CONSIDERED THE SAME. SOME CRUDE CANNOT BE USED FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN GASOLINE. THAT CRUDE WHICH HAS LIMITED USES COME FROM PLACES LIKE SAUDI ARABIA.

STOP.
BEING.
A.
FAGGOT.

show your graphs that show an upward trend in shale oil production? I know the tech is improving and cost are going down but it is a drop in the bucket for the huge appetite for global oil demand.
>>The details will be debated by the autist.
In simple terms it is not hard to understand that we are going to be fucked when the life blood of industrial civilization goes into terminal decline and very few have prepared for it.

the stupid it hurts so much... tell us again how canadian heavy oil is worth anything?
business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oilands-bitumen-prices-are-actually-in-negative-territory-analyst-calculates
>The price of WCS fell to about US$19 per barrel on Thursday, about US$52 per barrel below the benchmark U.S. West Texas Intermediate price.

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>> The details will be debated...
Because you can't fucking debate for shit, numb nuts. You come in here, make grandiose statements, provide no real substantive information that had context, and then attempt to extrapolate future consequences from your flawed research. You need to understand your own stupidity and I'm always happy to oblige educating idiots like yourself.

Coming from a loser that has no idea what constitutes Heavy vs Light crude and the uses of each. Keep up that circus you call a thought, user. One day it might get you somewhere.

Straw-man argument.

>>You read some shit on Wikipedia and anti-oil lobbying websites
Wrongm the people that have informed me are all in the oil industry Marion King Hubbard (first to accurately predict Americas peaking of oil in 1950s was laughed at at the time), Matt Simmons, Robert Hirsch, Albert Bartlett, Collen Campbell, Arthur Berman, forgetting some names it has been a while.

OH IMAGINE THAT WE ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH OUR OIL SUPPLIES!!!
HOW COULD THIS HAPPEN?!?!?!
/run agressiveinternationalaction.exe

>hurr durr i'm to stupid to read the article linked to me, so i'll just flail around like a retard some more

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Yeah, and I'm heavily involved in the oil industry as well. And yet you don't want to listen to anything I have to say even though it's educating you on how oil is used. But keep reading books, I'm sure thinking will eventually lead to doing... Right. Just like all those academics that like to think all the time.

Also, there was no strawman. You believe after reading some thoughts that have no discernable evidence to prove their validity makes your argument sound. All the while, you don't argue any of the actual facts surrounding the industry you're trying to label "unnecessary and on it's deathbed." Fuck, if I didn't know any better, I'd say I was arguing with my brother that keeps saying we're going to run out of oil in 20 years because some (((research))) says so.

Do you not understand what the use of TEXAS SHALE is? Do you?
The answer is no. It's only for gasoline. No other uses due to being a light crude. You look at price and think "that means it's more useful!" Yet, you lack the ability to look into what you're talking about further than "what makes more money?"

>s-shale is going to run out, goyim
>y-y-you have to stay involved in the middle east
>p-please, goyim
>p-please
To be fair, OP could be Chinese. Because without the US staying involved in the Middle East and securing global trade routes Japan is about to shove a big fat dick right up their ass.

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The only statements I have made are US shell oil rigs have a terrible decline rates and will be a short lived fix before an oil crises hit america, or the world.

Americans are being sold a lie, the lie that we will become energy independent. There are a lot of details I lack the knowledge to debate I will admit, the oil industry is complicated.

The facts are simple, Crude oil production is near peaking globally if it has not already.
There are of course hundreds of different grades of crude oil and not all are equal. Having said that crude oil is the "purist" and easiest to refine (low eroi) compared to everything else. At the end of the day it is the total amount of over all energy produced that is required to keep industrial civilization running that matters.
It is all about net available energy to society, and we are very close to a irreversible decline.
I would love to be educated if I am incorrect, this stresses me out and I would rather it not.

>we just passed the 100 million barrel mark, we are getting close imo, then it is major shtf.

Or we finally do some major off shore drilling. Maybe do some deepwater drilling but not let those incompetent BP dipshits in on it.

>care to back this statement up with any numbers? Charts of production increases?

fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPG211111CN

Wait.
You are telling me that the civilization runs on heavy crude and light crude is only good for cars, which are moving to electric anyway?
So long term US is safe thanks to Alberta (worst case it will be annexed), but
Saudi Arabia is completely fucked.
Holy shit.

why didnt we just move to nuclear
is nuclear at least being researched and improved

Don't listen to him, light crude can be used for more than just gasoline. The reason it typically isn't is because gasoline is one of the most valuable and IS the most in demand refined product.

Most heavy oil is cracked and refined into gasoline, too. The world only needs so much asphalt. NGLs are used for chemical feedstocks, not light sweet crude.

Fpbp

Nuclear regulations are ridiculous and natgas electrical generators are very easy to stand up. Its the reason our coal plants are shutting down and CO2 emissions are dropping.

first i would like to point out that the 19 dollar barrel of oil, is the heavy oil your talking about... i mean you can type so one would assume you can also read, but i think i'm expecting to much

also are we being raided by shareblue, wtf is going on? its not summer

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Half the posts here are astro-turfing and have been since 2016.

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The decline rates for tight oil are similar to conventional, it's just misleading since the pressure profile at the start is significantly different than normal decline curves. Once it enters steady-state flow it's a standard hyperbolic decline. Plus the pore volume of shale is typically higher than conventionals so cumulative production can be higher even if the rate is lower. I wouldn't buy in that we are "missing" or "exceeding" expectations since most estimates for a well are in the ballpark of +/- 20%. A simple workover can sometimes increase yields by 10-20% or higher and company finances can play a big hand in whether or not a well gets proper treatment during its life.

Then you realize your talking about a country that has been heavily taxing their own oil industry to the point where they can no longer compete well on the international market. But, who am I to judge. I'm just a Canadian with an American citizens expecting Americans to understand anything about Canada (which is impossible because Americans could never comprehend the typical attitude of a Canadian.. Which admittedly, is a good thing).

It doesn't really matter. American automakers are producing the most fuel efficient vehicles in the world. Right now you can buy a Ford F-150 EcoBoost V6 and have all of the power and performance of a gas guzzling V8.

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>Americans are being sold a lie, the lie that we will become energy independent.
Nope.
>EIA projects that the United States will become a net energy exporter in 2022 in the newly released Annual Energy Outlook 2018 (AEO2018) Reference case, primarily driven by changes in petroleum and natural gas markets. The transition from net energy importer to net energy exporter occurs even earlier in some sensitivity cases that modify assumptions about oil prices or resource extraction. Sensitivity cases with less energy production project that the United States will remain a net energy importer through 2050.

eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=34912

Also this: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPG211111CN

The US isn't peaking

oh youre a fucking leaf no wonder all your posts are so disjointed

This is correct. Additionally it's basically impossible to know what the "correct" decline rate of a shale oil well should be, since they've been around less than a decade. Conventional oil wells have over a century of data to be compared to and can thus be priced better. Shale simply doesn't have that historical data.

>>we're going to run out of oil in 20 years
Anyone who makes this statement knows little about the oil industry. We will never run out of oil, there will always be oil in the ground that is to "expensive" negative eroi to extract.

The people that I listed where all White Anglo's expect for maybe Art Berman. My father was in the same graduating class a Matt Simmons (a mormon). The people I listed are retired geologist that have spent there whole careers in the oil industry and started to "speaking up" to alert the world to the troubles of peak oil.

The whole meme that JEWS want to limit the goyims use of energy is fucking retarded, burnt hydrocarbons are the back bone of global economic growth, any reduction of burnt hydrocarbons equals less gdp which equals less shekels for them, OY VEY!

Are you telling me (((They)) care more about the environment then shekels?

We have not yet unleashed shale, obungo had the industry's hands purposefully tied, and its already showing its age? Bwahaha shills gonna shill, 2 weeks, save ur money up

Bingo. Ask a res engineer what they forecast the next 3 years of a 1 yr old well is and they'll tell you it's going to be inaccurate. Ask a private wealth analyst and all of a sudden they're forecasting 20 years out with a "5% uncertainty"

> Posts disjointed
> All of them arguing the same point
No wonder your country let me in to do the real thinking and engineering.

>could never comprehend the typical attitude of a Canadian
That you have always been passive aggressive faggots?

don't be retarded please, americans and canadians are both fat, ugly, and fucking stupid.
there i said it, now fuck your sister in the ass.

For now as long as they slow americans down its good enough, and speed up the goyim in india and china, but eventually they will turn on those goy, its jyst our turn right now

i dont get your point
why does it matter that theres different oil types?
are you suggesting shale production is peaking then decreasing because we just dont want to pull it out or something?

That's only part of it. Another part is the usual "smile and chuckle" isn't a friendly thing. They're actually mocking you. It's one of the main reasons I refuse to ever move back. They are a bunch of limp-wristed faggots, I agree. Luckily, I primarily grew up in Texas and had the Canadian beaten out of me.

No, the point is to illustrate that the differences in crude dictate the overall usefulness of extracting the product. If we have no use for gasoline, lighter crude become much less useful as their chemical makeup creates real issues when trying to refine it into more complex chemical compounds. I don't much care for the "peak oil" buzzword that floats around. When we tap all the wells, we'll have tapped all the wells. By that point, we'd already be putting heavier efforts into nuclear.

it was obvious shale was going to run out fast but i didnt expect it to be this fast

holy shit
so the us is stuck with saudi arabia no matter what

speaking of which they never seem to update their reserves hmmm

Peak oil is a meme
The US just discovered we're sitting on more oil and natural gas than we thought for 30 years
Fear mongering is always bullshit
Sauds and Israelis are all demon worshipping scum that deserve to hang

Thanks for those graphs user, the devil is in the details. I am skeptical of those numbers, there is good reason for ever one involved to give rosy projections so they can continue to receive cheap credit and financing, and higher stock valuations.
Fackers have went after the "low hanging fruit" plays first and I wonder how much of these projections are being based on the numbers of best plays in the shale fields?

i was reading a scientific explanation of why shale would eventually become economically unviable and wasnt infinite

and the only country preparing for a post oil future is china

hmmmmm

I don't think the only response or reaction to a disbelief in the longer term future of shale reserves is automatically an extended stay and active re-intervention in the Middle East. There are serious alternatives available, possible on industrial scales; notably nuclear power, next generation bio-fuels like dimethyl ether, and a radical commitment to building codes and social organization that reduces energy expenditure in the first place.

> The only country preparing for a post oil future is China
Because they can't compete today, they make educated guesses as to what the future will be in hopes they can one day sit at the big boys table. Rest assured, the US is always calculating future outcomes. China will not overcome Western might. The West, itself, is the only thing that can unseat the West.

nah you're the meme
peak oil is real and your opinions are fake news

50 years of "peak oil" predictions being utterly wrong and you're still not going to give it up, huh? IYI spotted.

>> I don't much care for the "peak oil" buzzword
>>When we tap all the wells, we'll have tapped all the wells

user I think underestimate or have a lack of understanding of the significance of peak oil. It will not matter when we suck the last barrel of oil out of the ground. What matters is when the total amount of net energy available to civilization starts a irreversible decline.
A drop in overall net energy will led to less economic out put, civilization will be unable to pay the interest on debt, banking and the stock marckets will tank, mad max world will ensue.

One thing I see stopping this trend is to destabilize the countries with the greatest oil reserves so that the can not grow there own economies, essentially limiting over global demand. Look at who america has went after. Iraq,Libya, trying for Iran, and perhaps Venezuela.

>I am skeptical of those numbers
Just read the report user.
eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/AEO2018.pdf

The second graph is done by the St. Louis Fed Reserve which is just tracking crude oil production by month. Nothing to guess here.

oh more PEAK OIL BULLSHIT?!

They've been talking about peak oil since the 70s and so far there seems to be MORE oil than before. oil is a natural renewable resource that is created in the earths mantel.

Oil is forever

>tfw I did a troll paper on peak oil and now I feel compelled to shill for it

why is there so much oil on this planet reeeeee

You argue as if when oil no longer can be used, humans will pack the ingenuity to find new avenues to continue moving forward. That's why I'm not concerned over "peak oil". Nuclear is a clear contender to replace oil and coal.

Lack*

Marion King Hubbard predicted in 1950 (70 years ago) that America would hit a peak production of CRUDE oil around 1970, to a group of Shell oil geologist. He was laughed at at the time. He was proven correct, Americas crude did peak in 1970 and has been in irreversible decline since.

Most oil producing nations are past peak already and are now importing oil.

Go and look at a map of oil discoveries, fuck it I will do it for you, they peaked decades ago. I think we all could agree that you need to discover oil it before you can drill and use it.

Attached: Global-oil-discoveries-production.jpg (500x244, 34K)

I wish
I would love nothing more than for this shithole to collapse

>What matters is when the total amount of net energy available to civilization starts a irreversible decline.

That wont happen. Once one starts to go we'll just use another as the energy supply that is running out will become too expensive.

Here's what the EIA thinks it will be by 2050

Attached: energy.png (1366x768, 201K)

peak shale?

Rip in piece lng
Oil is back baby