Sensible midterm discussion thread

>While Democrats look to gain control of the house (+20-45)
Yaaaa boii

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Rate my prediction. Florida is a pure tossup at this point but I gave it to the dems because I already gave republicans a +3

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The Senate will be like you say. The House is a toss up. We just don't know how turnout, enthusiasm, and local politics will play out. The Republicans have a lot of incumbents who win over 80% of elections historically so don't count them out.

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I think it could happen. Nevada has pretty lax voting laws, but if they're too busy trying to rig Texas they'll forget about that.

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if the gop can prevent the dems from getting anything more than a single digit majority I say thats pretty good for them.

That doesn't look like a blue wave to me.

>what happened?

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>sensible discussion
2016 polarized the political climate so much that polls are no longer a valid way to gauge the electorate. It's a fucking crapshoot at this point.

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Here's mine.

Unga Bunga me cherry pick one site unga bunga nate silver 30% unga bunga me never take statistics class

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nvm, wrong one
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html
check this out, last poll he is up 7.

Polling has been pretty correct for special elections though, and the national polling for 2016 was nearly spot on.

You're a fucking moron who learned nothing in 2016. Typical CNN liberal

Nice

This is not bad and probably true, except Missouri is going red. Everything else is fine and probably right, considering no surprises here until election day or something else.

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I think it's far more likely that nevada goes blue and florida goes red tbqh

>no suprises until election day
You mean like pictures of a hoard of Honduran immigrants being separated from their kids at the border?

Sinema's been ahead in Arizona in like every poll unless something changed recently. Okay otherwise.

>MT and MO staying blue
what?

They're trapped on the Mexican-Gutalamalan border for the time being. If they are able to break through, avoid the federales, and make it to the border all the way through Mexico to be detained and have their kids taken away from them in 18 days than sure.

>Sensible midterm discussion thread
>Democrats look to gain control of the house (+20-45)
Pick one

maybe 2 weeks ago, 54-55 in the senate and a narrow +3 seat majority in the house for the GOP

>pictures of kids being separated from parents

it's been done. don't care.

>WV blue
are you fucking retarded

Uh, no, sorry sweetie.
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_sinema-6328.html

Yes they are.

i-is Indiana going blue?
also i dont trust nevada to go red.

I will enjoy very much the suffering of all my anti-Trump colleagues on the next morning. I will be bathing in liquid salt when Rs keep the house, maybe this will be the one time I will reveal my true power level to then

They already broke through. Surprise surprise.

There's audio of her calling stay at home moms parasites, encouraging the Taliban, and saying Arizonia is a "methlab of democracy".

She's done.

Purple wave bruh

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Heller is consistently up in polling, he was supposedly a dead man walking in the spring.

da polls say the Republican is up in Nevada (NY times, Emmerson, and CBS, all three latest polls saying that, getting higher from a 2 point lead to a 7 point lead). That state is in the bag. Indiana is in the margin of error with a small dem lead. That's just the polls, though.

Donnelly is the incumbent and is pretty popular.

I have multiple friends in Montana, Tester is extremely popular there, the thing is incumbents in smaller states tend to have a bigger advantage because they literally can interface with everyone. He also hasnt trailed in any polls in 2018

Shes down lately, the attacks on her record as an anti-war protester are killing her

Go back to your Trump thread if you don't like hearing differing opinions.

prolly should just do it user. fuck it just vote red so we can salt mine

You're readin that wrong.

The OVERWHELMING majority of Americans aren't into that shit at ALL.

>Go back to your Trump thread if you don't like hearing differing opinions.

Go back Jow Forumspolitics if you want to keep swallowing bullshit propaganda

>Believing polls in 2018.

What a dumb nigger.

>sensible
>20-45 house seats

Uh... what?

No, the federales pushed them back. They "broke" the fence on a bridge, the federales kept them there with riot police so that the new temporary fence (which was already delievered) could be set up. Which it was. A few women and children were taken to a detention center to receive food and water. One "migrant" died.

A phone call was made

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I'm in the California 10th. Probably haven't been keeping up.

39 of California's 53 districts are democrat so any hope of Cox is gone.

This had better be true. If this state goes blue again I could see us ending up like California. Too many spics here.

>Clark county (Las vegas) being a toss up
>The northern Republican counties leaning Democrat

What fuckery is this?

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>tfw grey is tossup and not fascist

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Yeah, Cox is a dream. Too bad.

Oldfag here, just a reminder: we had Deukmejian and Wilson -- both Republicans -- as governors through the 80s and 90s. This state also saw Reagan, Nixon and others come out of it.

It's now a shithole feverswamp of leftists and illegals, and they've cooked the elections and districting to basically ensure it stays that way.

Vote Republican, even if you don't agree with them. Still better than any Democrat.

repubs gain senate seats, dems win slim house majority

What do we think of the florida senate race?

This is one race I havent been able to figure out, pure toss up for me. Was scott a popular governer?

I live in Vegas and every single one of my neighbors has a confederate flag sticker on their car. There definately is still a sizable number of conservatives here.

rick scott never loses. joe manchin never loses

Elaborate please

Just an incumbency effect. Rick Scott is pretty popular in FL, and I can't recall an election he has lost.

Anyone who posts a "lean-red" Texas should kill themselves

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Same but to say this is a toss up while the northern counties are almost pure white to lean Democratic is moronic. You don't even have to live here to know that. Where the fuck is OP's brain?

youtu.be/Gy9kZ-eISIU new video by GOP spread the word, vote early and get everyone to vote RED.

You go first you nigger.

What the fuck are you talking about?

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Yeah, but what saves you guy is your native Nevadans (the whites) are far more rightwing than the commiefornications.

Neither have I. My aunt lives in Florida and she says it swings back and forth between the incumbent and Scott. Scott was an OK government, by the way, not unliked, but not popular.

Do you think Sandoval can beat your Democrat senator when they're up for re-election?

Would we even want Sandoval to run?

Im a non ameristanian. Someone explain to me what the house is and the senate is and what do they each do?

NY 22nd District going blue, Brindisi will crush Tenney.

I'm in Montana Tester isn't so much popular as he is non-controversial. He's managed to keep out of the headlines. He was elected on the promise of being born in Montana. Rosendale was born in Maryland, but he could still win. Trump did have 3 rallies with thousands of people attending each for Rosendale and Gianforte.

Yeah. I'm looking to leave this state and go join my family in Arkansas. We've been here since 1845 but I feel I must leave the sinking ship.

Damn shame about Prop 187.

Roughly analogous to the House of Commons and House of Lords, except that we don't appoint people to our House of Lords anymore

The House of Representatives is the House of Commons with less power and the Senate is the House of Lords with more power.

We lost it all. It's all going blue. There will be investigation after investigation. Kavanaugh was only the appetizer.

House is like your House of Commons, elected by the people, Senate is like your House of Lords except the 17th Amendment makes our Senators elected by the people. Needs a repeal, Senators were meant to be appointed by the state legislative branch. The House and Senate can both draft a bill, the House is supposed to be the heart of the people, so drafting bills is its main focus, spending bills always start here. The Senate is where the intelligence briefings, and appointments for Supreme Court, and appointments in general take place.

The House of Lords is based and Tony Blair cucking it fucked the UK. He was pissed off that the Lords didn't like his agenda and were too Tory so he curbed their power.

Fuck Tony Blair.

As far as I can tell, Sandoval is not very popular, so no.

Should I tell him?

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I thought he was since he won re-election and is a Spic, guess not.

>Sandoval
Polls I can find are old as shit. He's neck and neck with the other guy with a shitload of undecideds.

>Damn shame about Prop 187.

Exactly. California should serve as a model (and warning) to everyone else. For those not in the know: In the 90s CA voters put Proposition 187 in a law to more easily detain, deport illegals, cut their access to social, health and education, and forced record sharing with INS/CBP.

The judges struck it down.

Proposition 8 was passed in 2008 -- eliminating same sex marriage rights-- after YEARS of trying to ram same-sex marriage rights through in the state and failing. That's 2008 folks -- only a few years ago.

The judges struck it down, too.

This is how the left operates. Give them no quarter. They will utterly fucking ruin your state, and this country, too if we let them.

Super Majority of 60 seems sensible
Need to pick up NJ or MI

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my district is very heavily blue, candidate running unopposed. I won't vote, the less voter engagement he gets the better.

Sandoval is term-limited. I forget the name of the current candidate.

OOPs! Forgot FL! Only need one pickup

New Jersey is actually more likely than Michigan. Menendez is a crook and the Democratic party is trying to pretend he doesn't exist. Hugin is polling well above where he should be, but it's not guaranteed. The Michigan candidate is a black Republican somehow put a Swastika in his last commercial so he was already behind in the polls. Michigan would take a miracle.

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nj/new_jersey_senate_hugin_vs_menendez-6506.html
archive.fo/D9zWL
cnbc.com/2018/08/22/bob-menendez-lead-over-republican-bob-hugin-shrinks-in-nj-senate-race.html
web.archive.org/web/20180822190936/https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/22/bob-menendez-lead-over-republican-bob-hugin-shrinks-in-nj-senate-race.html
nytimes.com/2018/08/05/nyregion/senator-menendez-election-nj.html
web.archive.org/web/20180820195823/https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/05/nyregion/senator-menendez-election-nj.html
thehill.com/homenews/senate/403022-poll-nj-dem-senator-only-leading-by-6-after-corruption-scandal
archive.fo/7LxE4
patch.com/new-jersey/livingston/these-7-democrats-endorsed-gop-s-bob-hugin-us-senate
web.archive.org/web/20181012062402/https://patch.com/new-jersey/livingston/these-7-democrats-endorsed-gop-s-bob-hugin-us-senate

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Huh, interesting stuff. Ill loom into it a bit more.

>MT, OH, WI, PA and WV
>All red
Honestly I hope you're right but the PA GOP is so fucking incompetent it's pathetic. Renacci also seems to be struggling in Ohio too. Nobody seems to be polling in Montana and I fear Manchin's vote for Kavanaugh will carry him over the finish line. Wisconsin would also be surprise since the candidate is a literal who, but some Michigan user says he works for the State GOP and James is doing surprisingly well and is optimistic so who knows?

Early mail ballot returns are looking really healthy for Republicans in states i looked at. North Carolina, Arizona and Florida relative to prior years. I have not checked today's totals though

It will be an exact repeat of Obama's presidency. This country has no hope of fixing itself now with its current system.

2008 (2016) becomes a "historic victory" for Democrats (Republicans) to regain all 3 branches of government.

2010 (2018) massive anger at Obama (Trump) cause a new Republican revolution (Blue Wave) to retake the House of Reps. New legislation stalls as hyper-partisanship takes root.

2012 (2020) Obama (Trump) remains president by slim margins because of terrible opposite candidate and incumbency advantage.

2014 (2022) increased enthusiasm in Republican (Democrat) party causes Obama (Trump) to lose both House and Senate.

2016 (2024) full on anger engulfs both parties, Obama's (Trump's) party loses the white house in the last to switch to the opposition. The USA continues down a path of hyper-polarization and increasing chances of civil war. The cycle repeats again.

History repeats itself.

>This is how the left operates. Give them no quarter. They will utterly fucking ruin your state, and this country, too if we let them.

This.

>Early mail ballot returns
I was looking for info on this. Where can we get numbers?

Tennessee is also at levels above 2014 (but less than 2016) for the GOP.

Womack is safe

No Senate race

Hutchinson is the safest governor in the country

He'll be impeached if the Dems win. Make no mistake.

>+20-45
the average house seats gained over he last 6 decades is like 17. so at best the dems do 20. no way they get to 45 or anywhere close user. i would bet they about stay on the course, and flip 15-20

Mostly just Twitter posts and infographics that don't cite their sources.