Realistic 2020 Map as of Nov 2018

Why is everyone here writing off Michigan? Isn’t it getting redder?

>texas 248
>arizona 259
i'm okay with this. he'll either have to win PA or some combination of WI + 1 more.

Each state gets a vote not each representative
So Trump would win it

Why not MI PA? Rust belt is getting redder

>nytimes.com/elections/results/texas-senate

Beto spent 70 mil to Cruz's 29 mil and didn't even win. Texas is still ten years out.

>Rust belt is getting redder
Not since the 2016 election it isn't.

>Could even be 269/269, which would go to the house (Dem controlled for President/Rep controlled for VP)
ugh, now I remember the only real point of the dems getting the house.
I agree with your analysis of Texas, but I'm wary, I guess it does depend largely on how shit of a dem they run in 2020. If they somehow were to run beto as a play for texas, I dunno how it would play out.
Wisconsin, I dunno, my cousin lives there, voted straight R, and basically all of his candidates lost. I figured Scott Walker would have had it in the bag, but him losing worries me, not to mention the senate race wasn't even remotely competitive.
Arizona, highly disagree. I could be wrong, but watch for the special election to replace (((McCain))), if the dems manage to turn that seat blue too, just write off arizona as another nevada/new mexico.
Trump completely BTFO clinton, Hard, in Ohio...but this year's senate election wasn't particularly competitive/incumbent dem won by almost 7 points. Though the rep gov won by over 4pts, so I think the state is still Pretty republican, a lil more that florida I would think.

I disagree, Democrats are fleeing the states as the urban areas collapse. They’re becoming more rural.

Wisconsin doesn't have an """urban""" city with demographics like Philly or Detroit that can cancel out the rest of the state.

I forgot about that, I stand corrected. I could imagine the screaming on CNN, kek

>Texas
>Arizona
>Blue
Are you a fucking retard? No way that will happen. I know McSally lost, but that doesn't mean AZ will go blue (same way MA isn't going red). And Texas? Beta lost by 200k votes and he had EVERYTHING behind him (media, money, celebs, etc)
>WI, MI, PA
Trump only needs to win 1 and he will do that. He'll probably win 2.
>NH
It was very close in 2016 but I can see it going to Trump in 2020.

Cruz is borderline retarded and only won because of yellowdog republicans. The gap would have been significantly higher if Beto took on Cornyn

Both philly and and Detroit’s populations are dwindling too. Eventually the entire rust belt will be deep red IMO

Game plan How do we defeat CHICAGO

>I know McSally lost, but that doesn't mean AZ will go blue
People are forgetting that the Rep gov won AZ in the same statewide race by over 300k votes (which is more comparable to the national election). The senate race was just weird.

>Not since the 2016 election it isn't.
Learn some history you dumb faggot. Obama got obliterated in the 2010 midterms then went on to do better in 2012 that he did in 2008.

>Texas

Sage

/thread

Chicago is still doing fine population wise. Don’t know why people continue to live there, but I imagine Illinois will be blue for a long time to come

It was one of the worst blow outs since the 1920's. Trump actually expanded the senate lead and only lost about half the house seats that Obama did.

I just wanna be red senpai

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Exactly.
And that's not even counting the key governor races in FL and OH (which Obama went all in on).

We’re in a political shift right now. It’s happened before where the major parties change. We’re moving towards a multi party system where closer minded parties will have to form alliances on specific issues. The major forces right now are the Progressive Democratic Socialists, the Populist Fiscally liberal Republicans, the Establishment Republicans and Democrats.

I doubt the democrats will have an easy time holding on to all of their districts since the party is disintegrating. With Trump, at least the republicans will have something to unite them though I also doubt that will last and that within 20 years both parties won’t be the same.

I thought the same thing 10 years ago but it didn't happen. We'll see

Bullshit. You don't even know who the opponent will be. That changes everything.

This, x1000. Who the Dems nominate and the state of the economy, will be the two deciding factors for the direction of the election.

I think the two-party system will continue but with more polarization. There's nobody who actually wants to vote for an establishment Republican or Democrat.

Nice fanfic.

I like how we made these predictions and he fucking won. We'll see what happens when we get there.

I disagree, there’s lots of boomers and professionals who said they were gonna vote for Feinstein because Kevin De Leon with all his la raza bs was too radical. The establishment will definitely lose power though as the more radical generation grows up.

>. There's nobody who actually wants to vote for an establishment Republican or Democrat.
No one was more establishment than Hillary but libtards loved her.

largely agree with this. arizona is more plausible than texas but i doubt either flips, unless something catastrophic happens

>It was very close in 2016 but I can see it going to Trump in 2020.
all of New England is growing to hate trump because of his social media presence and 24/7 news cycle
im a state politician and every single person over the age of 50 says something like:
>the economy is doing great I guess..not that im seeing any of it but I can't stand trump the person. he's just so vulgar and always insults people
they don't think it's funny and they don't understand banter. there's nothing to do in New England so they all watch MSNBC. the economy is meaningless to them because states are filled with heroin addicts and homeless people

>Michigan
>Ever blue again
No. Detroit has lost enough population to make rural michigan the dominant voice in that state.
>Wisconsin
Became a swing state
>Maine
Has split districts

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The demographic shift is the only source of this insanity. The only reason such fringe issues that the Democrats push can exist is because of a solid unconditional block of "minorities".

>all of New England is growing to hate trump because of his social media presence and 24/7 news cycle
They hated him in 2016 and still NH was very close (there was even rumors of Dem voters shenanigans)

Pa is gonna stay red for Trump

Drumpf will be the last ZOGbot in the White House, the Democrats will usher a new colored America.

so go ahead and explain to me why Abbot is governor then or how that spic Cruz can do absolutely no fucking campaigning whatsoever and still win his goddamn senate seat

>Beto was a formidable candidate and liked by many Texans

He's also probably going to run for President.

The Dems are sto her than ever, the establishment and progressives are under a truce to defeat Trump.

>denial the post

MAGA

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>what events will unfold in each state to flip them
All Blue politics are national.
More than half of Democrats believe Russia hacked voting machines and Trump literally stole the election.
When Mueller admits there is no evidence of collusion and two years of Blue House investigations fail to materialize impeachment, they will realize they have been had by current leadership. Internecine strife between Progressives and Bluedogs will tear the party apart with an inconclusive primary and a shitshow nominating convention where Hillary Clinton is picked after several rounds of voting. Blues won't show up to the polls and the ones who do will be blackpilled by two years of prosperity, in spite of "Orange man will kill economy" talk, and a party that lied to their faces.

Again, all Blue politics are national. Individual state issues will have no effect on the 2020 presidential election. But the effects above will be more pronounced in swing states.

When are you going to understand that Trump is the new Reagan? He would be enormously popular if he had run after 4 years of Hillary.

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Cruz isn't popular. Look at Texas governor.

Again, see the senate results from the election literally 1 week ago, these are statewide races in almost every swing state from 2016:
nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html
You CAN'T say "PA = RED, now stfu" when the dem senator there just beat the rep by over half a million votes. Likewise, MI/WI, dems beat reps by over a quarter million votes. Minnesota, 2 dem senators beat the reps by ~300k and ~600k respectively.
While none of this is set in stone, you need to look at the reality.
>Learn some history you dumb faggot. Obama got obliterated in the 2010 midterms then went on to do better in 2012 that he did in 2008.
Maybe you should take your own advice and study some history yourself.
Obama almost lost 2012, he got 5mil fewer votes than 2008 and lost 2 states + district in nebraska. If you look at the vote counts across the rust belt that Trump won, the votes steadily decreased. This is why michael moore specifically said had romney won PA/MI/WI, he could have won the election. Instead, the cuck was caught ranting about the 47% shit and it sunk his campaign a month and a half before the election.

Votes and states are not static, especially when you factor in these states being flooded with illegals, no voter id, voter rights restored for felons (even if the felons aren't convicted murderer republicans, but convicted voter fraud committing democrats) and new illegal democrat tactics (truckloads of votes showing up with enough votes to flip the races) and new commie shit like "ranked choice voting":
>rep was in the lead
>let's take votes from the other candidate and give them to the dem
>oh look, the dem won after all cause you're essentially allowed to vote twice.
usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/11/16/ranked-choice-voting-maine-protest-candidates-election-2018-column/2023574002/

>Progressive Democratic Socialists
Read their platform. They're literally Venezuela-style socialists who want to do a Cultural Revolution Redux on the public school system. They got Ocasio-Cortez by virtue of her pretending she was a Progressive, but they're never going to get more than a handful of seats without a decades long tumorous takeover of the Blues. Their membership is around 50,000 people right now. That's not significant. The Constitution Party (literally who?) boasts twice that.

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Obama was also a charismatic leader that accomplished plenty in those 2 years
Trump is a moron with the vocabulary of a 8 year old

Are you going to be keep up that level of anger for another two years? DESU, you guys used to get way madder. You didn't even throw in a fucking before that moron.

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>Trump supporting Governor of Arizona wins, while senator candidate that separated herself from Trump loses.
>I'm supposed to believe Arizona is going blue because of this.
>florida, an extremely close race, is red, while a hated republican managed a clean win in Texas against the Mexican JFK, but it's going to be blue because reasons.

Why would you call this disaster realistic?

Lmao typical NPC talk

G.O.P. needs a strong campaign in Wisconsin in 2020

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D.C. is blue of course

>When are you going to understand that Trump is the new Reagan?
>(((Reagan)))
That's actually a pretty serious insult to Trump. Reagan literally allowed for an extra Hundred MILLION people, largely mexicans/south south/central americans to get blanket amnesty/exponentially breed democrats voters.
As a result, The absolute BEST Trump could ever possibly do is pic related, and that would be if he passed voter ID in EVERY state and flipped at least 8 states by 15 points.
Steve Bannon was batshit insane when he said Trump could clear a 400+ electoral vote reelection victory in 2020. It's just not possible.

Bottom line, the world has changed since 1984, Trump will never get a Reagan reelection blowout (49 state victory, with the 50th losing by 3,000 votes), thanks in large part to what (((Reagan))) did to flood the country with non-whites from corrupt latin american countries who don't give a shit about freedom/liberties/etc.

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>(((Reagan)))
>That's actually a pretty serious insult to Trump. Reagan literally allowed for an extra Hundred MILLION people,
Isn't amazing how an user can go from
>ORANGE MAN BAD
>THE FUTURE IS BLUE
>ABSOLUTE DEMOGRAPHIC MAJORITY
to
>Nice try, kiddo. (((Drumpf))) is just another zionist shill.
>He'll never deport the illegals
>Vote Blue or you'll die for ZOG
after just a few posts?

It's almost as if they never believed what they were saying at all.

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desu Reagan was a cuck when it came to spics tho, he even admitted it was a big mistake to trust Dems would secure the border after amnesty

>some stupid bullshit
you'll need to actually cite my words from each post to prove your point with actual evidence, not cite 1 post where I'm (justifiably) shitting on reagan for wrecking the nation then just making up the rest of your bullshit rant out of thin air.