Intelligence and Political Ideology

1. Your answer to this question
2. Your political ideology

What is the relationship between the two? Are conservatives really less intelligent on average, as leftists clearly believe?

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en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
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2/3

2/3 of the gold balls are in box 1
1/3 of the gold balls are in box 2

You have a 2/3 chance of picking a gold ball on first pick in box 1, meaning you have a 2/3 chance of re-picking a gold ball.

If anyone says 1/2 you are a faggot.

This again?

going for at least 2 threads and 5 hours strong

1 selection since you are only picking from one singular box. Chance of picking the single box with GG = 1/3 chance. Pulling a Gold does not effect the outcome, the fate was sealed upon selection of the box. There is only 1 box out of 3 with GG in it, therefore answer is 1/3

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1/3

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Essentially people that pick 2/3 are people that approach this question thinking it's about in depth statistics and telling some kike professors anecdotes about this makes them validated.

And when talking about it in a "answer this question correctly with all the textbook talking points or you fail my statistics class" perspective, they're right.

If you pick 1/2 you approached this like high tier Jow Forums riddle bait shitpost and found that this is really a way to expose all the shareblue by posters. In any given thread (I will use this).

Why? Because following the simple straightforward instructions that are like a riddle will lead you to 50% chance of the second one being gold since you are told the first one is already gold, you know what the contents are, and have to pick from the same box and the question is asked at the end with no indication that you need to calculate for other opportunities at drawing balls.

Hurr Durr it's clearly 2/3
CowboyAstronautSexualTyrannosaurus Harvard Grad here.

Even though we only have 2 choices to pick from its clearly 2/3. I swear i don't know what penis tastes like.
just ran a simulation.

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1/3 and liberal

Hey bigger didn't we go through this thread already?

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This is the fourth thread that I've seen. Is OP going to re-run it until the cons win?

2/3
liberal

That doesn't make any sense...

Out of the 2 boxes with at least one good ball in them, only 1 has two gold balls in it.

1/2 = 50%.

It’s literally basic probability. Have you not taken a basic statistics course, what’s your conclusion?

50% right?

There's six balls and literally no external factors influencing your pick.

Out of the 2 boxes with at least one *gold* ball in them, only 1 has two gold balls in it.

1/2
Libertarian

1.
==I GOT 2 GOLD BALLS RIGHT HERE BETWEEN MY LEGS EYYY==
2.
right winger

2/3 is wrong because pulling a gold doesn't change anything; the moment you select a box you either pick GG,GS or SS. The fact that you pulled a G doesn't change your initial selection, and the probability of the initial selection is 1/3.

This is the most concise and logical answer. 1/2 is simply wrong, and 2/3 is autistic.

I wrote a dumb program to test it
It's a 2/3 chance of winning and getting another gold ball

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So your unironic answer is 1/3?

This guy gets full marks for showing his working out. Good chink.

based

It’s a 50/50 chance, the third box doesn’t count because there is no gold in it, so it’s the first or the second, 2 gold or one silver.
Political ideology - National socialism/Fascism

“Next ball”
You already have one ball. The question asks what the probability of the “next ball” from the only possible remaining balls left is.

And that means if you took a ball from box A then there is 1 gold ball left in there.
And if you took a gold ball from box B then you took the *only* gold ball from that box which leaves 1 silver ball.
1 silver or 1 gold ball 50/50

People really are too fucking stupid to think for themselves apparently.

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That is pretty impressive, what the fuck are you doing on Jow Forums you utter loser?

50%.

Having already picked one gold ball, you know that it is:
A: The box with 2 gold balls
or
B: The box with 1 gold ball

A guarantees another gold
B guarantees a silver

50%, faggots

t. PhD student

>a ball from box A
which ball from box a? the first gold ball or the second? they're not the same ball

2/3
conservative
For the records, I wouldn't be surprised if conservatives WERE less successful about answering questions like these, because this is about education, logic, statistics etc.. more than it is about being smart/wise.

Yes, libtards probably have more education than conservative on average, in large part because
-They're younger, so they are in school/got out of school recently, so their education is recent
-School teachers/campus are all left leaning

So yes, leftist people are probably better at answering statistical riddles.
While conservative people are better at solving actual real life social riddles using common sense.
Example of statistics the left doesn't understand, if 99% of terrorist attacks are committed by muslims, it doesn't matter that "They have a muslim friend who is really nice", that's a pattern that means muslims are more likely to be terrorists.
If black people make up 15% of a population yet commit half the murders, and these numbers also hold up if you count other factors (like wealth), there's something wrong with them.

They don't even understand the wage gap and still fight for it, despite thousands of people having debunked it, and they cheer when Obama says that women are paid 23% less and stupid shit like that "Finally someone says the real thing!" like they're actually paid 23% less for the same jobs.
There's a 99.999% disparity of salary between the people named "Bill Gates" and the people with my name. Doesn't mean there's discrimination, just means we don't work the same job with the same effort/success.

As a conservative and a coder (and a nerd who used to statewide math/trivia competitions as a kid) I have no problem with trivially easy riddles like this one, or with understanding social issues, "real life statistics".
The left only seems to be good at the former. Their logic goes down the drain when faced with facts that would show something they don't like.

Dumb indeed

Ideology ... idk, just please something without (and resistant to) jewish influence - natsoc / libertarian seems nice.

being bored and not sleeping

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>doesn't change your initial suggestion
No nigger, that's the trick, puling a gold first rules out the box with two silver.

Thus THE TWO POSSIBLE options are

I picked the box with 2 gold and I already have one in my hand.
Or I picked the one with silver and gold, with the gold already in my hand.

So two possible options. Box GS or Box GG. If already have one gold in my hand then that means the two boxes left are G or S. Meaning 50% chance of another gold.

Yes. The win condition is picking GG. With one single selection, the chance of picking GG is 1/3. The fact that you pulled a G does not change the initial probability of landing GG. Your probability of selecting the win condition GG was set in stone at initial selection.

...

I will pick SS

Also ( ) I know that most of the "50%" people in this thread are trolling, but in case you ever meet someone who actually believes it's 50% and want to prove him wrong:

Ask them the same scenario, but there's 1000 balls by box.
A: 1000 gold balls
B: 1 gold ball, 999 silver balls.
C: 1000 silver balls.

You pick one ball and it's gold. What are the odds another from the same box would be gold?
This time they'll get it.
If they aren't and believe it's still 50%, then bet them (even give them 2 to 1 odds!) at $100 a pop that their next ball is gold, and they bet on silver.
Either they'll understand, or you'll make a lot of money.

This also work for the monty python riddle fwiw, instead of 3 boxes make it a thousand boxes.

No, you are already granted the fact that you picked a box with at least one G.

Thus, you picked one out of two possible boxes. GG or GS. 50% chance it is one of them.

The initial pick is given ,it is not to be accounted into the calculation

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Ffs it's obviously 50%. If you picked a gold, that automatically rules out the box with 2 silver balls, therefore your next pick is gonna be either a gold or a silver ball. And that's 50%. What's so complicated about this?

Occams Razor, You are fucking retarded.
The odds are 1/1 of winning/losing not 1/1000 you stupid fuck.

>either a gold or a silver ball
which gold ball? the one on the left or the one on the right?

Only a brainlet who thinks he’s more intelligent than he actually is comes up with a “correct” answer of 2/3. Given the facts, the probability of the next ball being gold is 50% and it’s not even debatable. This is so simple it’s stupid. Sage

1/2. Just says you already have picked a gold which eliminates the SS box. At this point the only possibility is either the GS box or the GG box. It's simply just how it was worded. Easy as fuck

Conservative

People at my work couldn't even write this if they tried, jeeez

My entire degree is to do with statistics. I don't understand how it can be anything but 50%. Because in the story you have already eliminated the third box. So it's a question of whether you picked the ball from the first or second box.

Since you already took one out, it doesn't matter now does it?

Looks like more people are understanding that it's 1/2

1/3 odds at the starting point that you pick the GG.
1/2 odds that you picked the GG when you checked one ball and it's G.
2/3 odds at the starting point that you pic a box containing GG or GS.

This image might be the single greatest shareblue jidf shill identifier ever invented.

idk if you're being sarcastic but I wrote it as simplistically as possible to prove the point

Yes, but by the wording you are guaranteed your first pic is a gold ball. The SS box is out of play.

Why are you calculating the rubbish? The s,s box does not matter. Dumb python fag.

If your work place has programmers and they can't write out something like that they should be fired.

>Why are you calculating the rubbish? The s,s box does not matter. Dumb python fag.
yeah hurr durr I should totally have shorthanded it to the point where it was unintelligible for non-programmers

no, the point was to prove that it's 2/3 to people with code

>doesn't matter
so how many ways could you be holding a gold ball? the first gold ball in box 1, the second gold ball in box 1, or the only gold ball in box 2

given that you selected a gold ball after choosing a box, it's more likely that you picked it from box 1.

1/2
I guess I'm a trad, but I despise ideologies as a whole

Niggas really be out here writing code over this bullshit thinking it will change anything

You don't initially know which box is which, but pulling a gold out does limit the contents of a single box to either gold or silver, so 50% it is then. It just feels like it should have more too it than that.

1/2. Fucked up Monty Hall problem. The first ball is gold, therefore A and B are the only two that can be randomly selected.

Applied math degree, this is the most proper and concise answer

You are right, other faggots are doing it wrong.

Pic related, code!

You're wrong m8. To your 2nd question.

You've picked A or B already. If you've picked A, you are guaranteed to pick another gold ball. If B, you're guaranteed to pick another silver.

If you do the bet, after one pick you would know for sure after the first pick. Like, if you pick one silver you'll know you had B, if you pick one more gold you know it is A.

Retard.

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1. 33% as there is only 1 box with a 2nd gold ball out of the 3.

2. Constitutional Conservative

Originally wrote a lot more but had to retype shorter answer.

Knowing that the ball you pulled is a Gold gives you a bit more information, you know that whichever box you picked is one of the two that contain at least one golden ball. Since you've elected to ignore this bit of additional information, why not ignore everything else about the problem posed, too? In that case, the other ball is other Gold or it isn't. 50%, boyo.
Also, look up the verbs effect/affect in the dictionary.

nigger just tell us what the metrics are on effort making up this five lights gaslighting game versus posters that aren't you going for that 1/2 probability

you have all that shit, why don't you show us your powerpoint deck?

Depends on where you start, but thats all correct. Also far right authoritarian Jew

I'm not falling for this shit again.
There's two valid answers to this problem.
Pick yours.

>box='gg'
explain why you pulled both balls from the box?

You already know you picked GG or SG. The GG counts as "two" for the one ball, but it DOES NOT MATTER in this case. Hence it is 50%.

You already know that you picked GG or GS from the way the question is phrased, so the 2/3 to pick GG or GS becomes irrelevant.

Idiot you left out box "gs"

>My entire degree is to do with statistics. I don't understand how it can be anything but 50%.
this is pretty low-quality bait when this stuff is taught in high school level stats

>You already know that you picked GG or GS from the way the question is phrased
no you don't, you can't see in the box

>your next pick is gonna be either this or that, therefore odds are 50%
Have you considered that the fact that there's 2 outcomes doesn't mean they're equally probable?
The box you picked will be A 2/3 of the time, because there's 2 gold balls in there.

It's not rocket science.
There's 6 balls in the boxes, and all have equal % to be picked.
G1
G2
G3
S1
S2
S3
The question reads "If you pick a gold ball".
Thus only G1, G2 and G3 come into play.
If you picked G1 or G2, your next pick will be a gold ball (G2 and G1 respectively)
If you picked G3, then your next pick will be a silver ball (S1). 2/3 of the time (G1 and G2) your next pick will be gold.

Anyway I'm done arguing, for the sake of the people on this board/people in general I hope you guys are all shitposting and not genuinely retarded.

lol retard

1/2 if we're calculating the probability for the next step
(you have 1 of two boxes, either the one where the next one is gold or the one where the next one is silver)
1/3 if we're calculating the total probability
(you have to pick the 'correct' box of three)
East Moravian-West Slovak separatism, people's military government

2/5, nigger bodigger

1/3
Socialism

Again, you acknowledge the fact that we've pulled a Gold to rule out [s, s], but you fail to recognize that with that knowledge, it is no longer equiprobable that you've picked [g, g] or [s, g]. [g, g] is now twice as likely to have been the box we picked.
Let me rephrase the solution, in the event that you draw a golden ball, it's twice as likely that the other ball is golden as well.

1/3 total, 2/3 for next step

Question is unclear as to where the starting position for the answer is to be placed. That's why everyone is coming up with different answers. It's deliberately worded shittily.

I think that guy's just trolling for funsies

It is a simplification of the problem.

You already know you picked one with gold. Hence, you know it is GG or GS. So, if you picked the GG - the next pick will obv be G. If GS it will be S.

You know there are 3 boxes, 2 of which have at least one G. Knowing that you picked one G, you know it is either GG or SG, You don't need to see in the box because of this.

You fail at reading code. If the pick isn't SS, and isn't GG, then SG/GS (order does not matter) is the only remaining option with the way it is set up.
If you write
else if(box === 'sg')
instead of just else
it yields the same result

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
>Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
Vos Savant's response was that the contestant should switch to the other door (vos Savant 1990a). Under the standard assumptions, contestants who switch have a 2/3 chance of winning the car, while contestants who stick to their initial choice have only a 1/3 chance.
>Many readers of vos Savant's column refused to believe switching is beneficial despite her explanation. After the problem appeared in Parade, approximately 10,000 readers, including nearly 1,000 with PhDs, wrote to the magazine, most of them claiming vos Savant was wrong (Tierney 1991). Even when given explanations, simulations, and formal mathematical proofs, many people still do not accept that switching is the best strategy (vos Savant 1991a). Paul Erdős, one of the most prolific mathematicians in history, remained unconvinced until he was shown a computer simulation demonstrating the predicted result (Vazsonyi 1999).

What are the chances that you chose the box with two gold balls when you already know the silver box is eliminated? 1/2

In that case I should have made fun of him for using Javascript.

We have a gold ball in our hand. Did it come from box 3? Fucking brainlet.

It's one of 2 things
Either it's the box with 1 silver ball left
Or it's the box with 1 gold ball left
A 1 in 2 chance
Where do I pick up my nigger noble prize?