Ok, let’s look at the current Brexit situation calmly, shall we?
Is there a chance the deal will be approved next week in the third vote? Answer: yes, but still a rather small chance. If it’s approved, nothing really happens, we end up in a transition and everything is fine.
What happens if next week the deal gets rejected a third time? Answer: well, the UK will ask for a short extension... but will 100% get rejected by the EU states as a short extension is bs. So what about a long extension then? 9 months or 21 months are on offer. The EU will require a new UK approach for any of these options, which the UK will not be able to offer.
Which brings us to the work week of March 25 to March 29. The Commons will vote on whether to extend Brexit for a long time... or even have May pull the A50 notice “for further reflection”.
My guess is there is a not insignficant chance that this will all result in a breakdown of efforts with a no deal Brexit on Friday March 29... and a scrambling emergency meeting over the weekend between the EU and the UK to put “emergency arrangements” together to keep the NI border generally open and trade flowing, coupled with provisional approval on both sides for these measures the next week.
The other options are, the 9 month extension, the 21 month extension and the A50 withdrawal with an indication to invoke A50 again. All this coupled with Germany’s suggestion to use the time to hammer out the FTA, so that the Commons can approve it in 2020 alongside the withdrawal agreement, making the backstop irrelevant.
Last, less likely option, is the short extension to May/June 2019... which just pushes the can down the road for a 4th vote in the existing deal, maybe with further “assurances” from the EU.
No matter which option you look at, every single one ends up not being a real issue. Every last one is just “some drama” but without real big consequences.
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