Some career advice for millennials and zoomers

I'd strongly advise people to get work as private security guards, paramedics/EMTs or correctional officers.

Right now as I see things. With companies investing billions in technology. Countless jobs, especially in fast-food retail and some clerical can and will be automated away. We will see more jobs eliminated then created. There will be a large permanently unemployable obsolete workforce. They will grow bitter, angry and restless. They will lash out sooner or later. As this will fuel more violence and crime on the streets. Demand for private security and emergency services will skyrocket as well as pay and job stability. Safety and insurance reasons will demand it.

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Hey this is exactly what I am doing right now

I think you're on to something.

>we will see jobs automated
Oh look, another clueless person who thinks hiring team of STEM engineers and bunch of mechanics to design, implement, and then upkeep complex machinery is cheaper than hiring highschool dropouts / phylosophy graduates and telling them what to do.

Its true that many jobs are getting automated. But corps dont do it because its cheaper, but because literally nobody is willing to work in assembly factories. People will rather be hobos and do dumpster diving for living than working in pic related.

People will ALWAYS be cheaper than robots. Its extremly easy to hire bunch of retards and make them work complex jobs for few dollars. Robots? Thats your last resort, not first.

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Yeah man I am a production manager where the vast majority of roles can be taught to a chimp. Why do I like equipment? Because it eventually pays for itself and it scales production. Why do I hate equipment? It is V expensive and the more of it you have the more technical your staff and services need to be and the more reliant you are on service, maintenance and so on. Why do I like staff? Initially they are very cheap, especially because training them is easy and they are easy to replace. Why do I dislike them? They are eventually expensive and introduce tons of drama and management. Why do so many jobs suck? Because the only way you can be trusted to do it safely is for everything to be process managed and simplified and performance managed to the point where you are treated like a brainless robot. Why does everybody feel expendable? Because that is the way you create a sustainable business which survives staff changes.

You're wrong and assume AI won't improve over time. Coding, Surgeons, fuck practically everything will be replaced and not just cause it's cheaper which it will be, but because it's better.

>AI will magically appear out of nowhere and perform tasks which are so fucking complex people have to spend a decade in school just to be barely able to not kill patient in middle of surgery
You are correct that technology can make a lot of jobs easier, especially enhanced "virtual" reality, but there still will be noob checking / correcting the software decisions.

Just admit it dude, you have never written a single line of code. Hint: its not as magical as TV and media makes it appear to be.

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The AI threat is overblown. Job loss is almost entirely due to outsourcing. EMT pays nothing, security pays nothing. I think you are on the right track thinking ahead but need to reevaluate your predictions

Lol you're just trying to avoid this so hard. Are you a programmer? You don't get that technology improves rapidly over time? Surgeons fuck up way too much for there to be no possible way of improvement. There's nothing AI won't eventually be able to do.

>avoid
user, its my job to write software for companies which makes lives of their employees and managers easier. You know what this one company does? They make plastic parts. Car engines, plastic toys, smartphones, their whole bussiness is making plastic shit which then they forward to other companies who actually use it to build actual products.

You cant even imagine the complexity and number of people with various skills behind ordering, making space in warehouse, transport, regular upkeep these machines need, keeping old formats up to 10 years (so when something old breaks we can make spare part for reparing) and testing just to make a funny looking black cap in your car engine. I usually have to interview like 10 different people before i can even begin planning concept how to improve / test / "automatise" X process being done without it harming and slowing down other 99 proccesses running at the same assembly hall / server.

Its extremly complex and you say there will come miraculous AI which will replace me or chirurg. You are laughtable. All what changed during last 20 years of software is that only now we have powerful enough machines to run algorithms which bored math guys invented in 80ties and 90ties.

And no, even if i completed all this mega software project tommorow (current scope is that we have planned work for the next 5 years for 10 men big team), not a single worker would lose their job. They would just be less stressed and their bosses would have actual idea what is happening in their big ass warehouse and why exactly they have week delay on newest X parts for audi.

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You'll absolutely be in your 40's without a job soon. There is nothing you do that is that complex that machine learning can't figure out eventually. I know it sucks but it's true. There are people much smarter than you working on this shit.

I do think they middle class will be gutted by outsourcing and various software/hardware/service solutions in tech, but I don't think it will be "AI". Data science is going to make some marketing merchandising, maybe even HR jobs obsolete I'm sure... But it's office jobs at stake and potentially some of those people shift to data science crap

I think the super secure careers for men remain the same: electrician, plumber, cop, public teacher, government bureaucrat. White collar middle class work is looking more and more like a suckers game where raising a family becomes impossible due to layoffs, long hours, outsourcing, etc

You remind me one of my professors from uni. His specialisation was artificial intelligence and later he did second doctorand in cybernetics. He claimed the same stuff when he was 40. Now he is 60, wrote several books and laughts at the notion while teaching his students about it.

You simply talk about stuff you have no idea about. Technology makes the productivity go higher, it doesnt make people jobless. We arent star treck levels yet. Our robots suck ass when you consider how fragile, cumbersome and expensive they are.

>wanting to risk my life to normies
No thanks

It's not robots, it's machine learning. It's simply learning to code more efficiently and faster than humans can currently. It's not impossible and it will happen.

>dude ur just like, huehue, ur wrong okay?
>machine learning bro, catch the wave of the future
>can I crash on your couch for a few weeks man?

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No you incel you cannot

that was a quote, scooter

My reply still stands

but I was quoting you, user, are you telling yourself you can't crash on your own couch? Harsh.

What the fuck are you talking about

What do you think about life coaches?

This is a really good suggestion op. I would say though that learning the skills necessary to build and work on automated systems with the goal of developing an automated home system that provides it's own electricity is kind of important. Work is going to become scarce in the future period and automated home security systems will take the jobs that you're promoting as well. You'll either have to already own the systems of production or be able to produce everything for yourself.

This is all only mildly overblown though. There's still a large number of advancements to be made and were actually rather close to adding computer hardware to our brains to increase our computational abilities.

My roommate works security and makes like $20/h. For a job that he got without any college degree, that's nothing to scoff at. Yeah it's not 6 figures but we're in a really good spot right now since I make almost the same and we pool our resources together.

talking about machine learning my illiterate nigga

While I agree with you for the most part this is underestimating a little bit.
> grandmaster in chess play and study their whole life
> eventually a brute force computer can beat all of them
> ai learns by itself for one day
> can beat the best brute force that's been improved for 23 years
AI is pretty fucking capable but it is true that design and real world control is difficult enough that it'll take a minute for ai to take our jobs in mass.

all those poor chess players in the breadline just because of IBM...

No you're not you fucking pussy lol

>no one is talking about machine learning yet ITT
you start?

When will you stop crying

>machine learns how to do one specific but widely performed task, like flipping burgers
>every company that can afford this technology replaces most or all of their burger flippers with this new machine
>everyone across the country that was replaced now has to find a new job
I think it's definitely possible

I almost bet though that if magnus went back and played against deep blue like he did this recent tournament that he would win.

when you stop smoking pot and hanging out at the skate park, what are you, almost 35?

Lol you're so fucking mad

I think it functions almost like this but definitely not exactly
newwork = robots - oldworkers/constant
In essence for that specific product or production process there will be less work for humans but not as much as the haters say.

im not mad user im disappointed

Chess is a game with finite amount of space, pieces and about 20 rules. Its piss easy to write AI for chess. Its something students in software engineering learns to do in 2nd semester.

Now go and make full robots only warehouse. Average employee in amazon leaves the job under three months because lets admit it, working is warehouse is extremly repetitive soulcrushing lonely job nobody wants to do. Thats why they are trying to automatisate it. Because literally nobody wants to work that job. Good luck, you gonna need it. You wouldnt believe the amount of shit which can go wrong in a fucking warehouse which badly paid worker solves in 5 minutes and your very expensive equipment will either tear in half because because motors dont have feelings or it will just block line and stops all exports for few hours before some dude arrives to fix it. Not to mention such warehouses costs like 100 normal ones.

As i said it, we automatisate out of neccesity, not to replace workers.

>They will grow bitter, angry and restless.
Or they will invest the basic income to better themselves and try stuff they were too afraid to try. Most will probably just waste away consuming.

Besides, why the fuck would anyone in their right mind risk their life to protect the bourgies.

Just because it's "hard" doesn't mean it's not going to happen. Most of the consumer tech today would be a fantasy just 30 years ago. Warehouse jobs beyond some guy checking that shit just runs don't really have a future.

Besides a lot problems come due the human element. Take driving. AI driving would be trivial if we banned human drivers who make all the mistakes.

>we automatisate out of neccesity, not to replace workers.
That's correct and at some point it's going to be cheaper and you have your "necessity".

OP is a teenager with no real life experience, why would anyone listen to him?

you need to study up more, there, copernicus, read a book or two yknow?

>believing in the Gutenberg press
Dropping the luddite LARP already?

>Luddite
never heard of Ludd or his teachings

If we give people UBI, we would be in Babylon almost immediately

Civilised countries already have a sort of UBI only with the requirement to pretend looking for jobs, which just wastes money and adds pointless pressure on people.

Youbare wrong. As someone else who has studied computer science. You have no idea what you are talking about with machine learning. This user is right .anyone in tech worth thejr salt has no fear of ai or joblessness for the blue collar

>never fear bois
>jobs is on the way
>a-AI is a good thing

>jobs are good
Imagine being this cucked.

>says the neet with no technology education from his parents' basement

>anyone in tech worth thejr salt has no fear of ai or joblessness for the blue collar
>what are new Amazon stores
>what are automatic check outs
>what is ordering over display

I was generally agreeing with you but you think of it as too benign. Also, writing an ai for chess and writing an ai for chess that can consistently outperform the latest version of stockfish are two completely different things.

I'm not blue collar retard I make 100k a year in finance this shit will fuck you eventually. Good luck

Prisons, emt, etc. Robots/machines with AI will take most of that over too, they'll be much better at handling a gun and such than a human could ever be.

Too many variations in some of these jobs.

Being able to aim perfectly is the least relevant requirement.

We're actually kinda behind the rest of the first world in terms of automation.
America's been slacking for like the last 60 fucking years. You look at this generation of people who are "training" workers and they're mostly retards that want to have their cake and eat it too.

The cost of a team of 10 software engineers, a project manager, and a team lead, is about $2-4M after taxes and benefits

The cost of a bunch of 100 kids working at $30000/yr is about equivalent

This means if that 12 person team can help you fire 100 people per year, yes, at a mathematically provable level, the team is far cheaper.

The thing about automation though is if you do it right, you'll fire WAY more people than that: if you're a company like McDonalds, you don't have 100 staff, you have upwards of 150,000. People will not always be cheaper than robots.

How did you get your job? What qualifications do you need for it?

Some jobs can be realistically replaced. But its nowhere the scope all the memers say it will be. Do you know pic related?
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switchboard_operator
Hundreds of people were doing so boring and monotonous task we let women do it :-D
Like the cashiers or warehouse plebs. Or maybe your average doctor who prescribes antibiotics for flu. Generic doctors these days are already lowkey replaced by google which is more accurate.

Dont be so dramatic. The change will be so slow the people will simply shift to new professions over time without any panic or economy crashes.

I went to public state school, did all assigments without cheating (many people often just submit copy of someones else work, that obviously doesnt teach them anything) and never skipped a single class. Then i just randomly applied to badly paid jobs. My title is mere bachelor (was too lazy for actual engineer) and the course was called software engineer.

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This

Lol I love how your automatic assumption is
"People will lose their jobs, and they won't have the skills for new ones, so they'll obviously riot"

instead of
"They'll go back to school to make themselves more employable"
or
the same science that eliminates old jobs, may very well create new ones

like jeez man, don't hit the conspiracy theories too hard

As an engineer working in automation systems, you have more reason for concern than you think. The timetable to make and deploy these things in low hanging fruit software spaces is something like 3-18 months. Most people who've specialized can't change career path and land on their feet in that time. Pretty much if we can do your job with software, (Biggest symptom we can probably automate your work: Your work sometimes use a computer, and you mostly do repetitive or similar tasks, eg, Cashiers, generic doctors, switchboardists, fast food workers, warehouse staff, factory workers), so unless you'd work for peasant-tier cash, ultimately we probably will automate it.

My friends who work on the image processing and robotics side of this discussion, say it's something like 2-6 years for more involved projects that involve ML, image recognition, and prototyping.

The white whale of automation though, aiming at ~9% of US jobs, self-driving truck delivery fleets, which people act like is going slowly, literally just kicked off 2 months ago. FABU is actively making deliveries with them in China, and it's likely that once they show an accident rate provably equal or less than standard vehicles (western processes are much slower because we demand companies to prove this first so they don't get sued into oblivion), then companies will quickly start using them to fire their most lucrative drivers and just route cross-country between truck depot parking lots, paying peanuts to temp workers to drive last mile within cities or states.

This will effectively end the trucking industry and could quadruple current unemployment, which is at 3%. I don't see how you can quadruple unemployment in 3-10 years and not call those memers right.

>unemployement will go from 3% to 6% in 10 years
>this means end of world, economy burning in bright fire and people will die from hunger and poverty
This is your brain on memes. Even during "big recession" and many many stock markets crashes nothing really happened. Stop trying to overblow the problems. People will simply adapt. At the worst case scenario some people will be forced to move back to their parents and live like people lived century ago: multiple generations under one roof because lets admit it: living alone is recent modern lixury, not neccessity.

3 to 12% is the guess here, not 6, user.

The great depression’s worst was 25% and averaged 14%. The housing crash’s worst peaked at 10%.

Permanent unemployment (those jobs are structurally after automation just gone) that’s “worse than the housing crash and only a little better than most of the depression” will be, without massive and effective societal preparation, be destabilizing in ways that most people will not successfully adapt to.

We’re not talking “you move back in with your parents”, we’re talking “the economy tanks, your parents life savings are worthless, they lose their home, you lose your job, and you’re unironically living in the “grapes of wrath” working as migratory farm laborers and your mom as a prostitute, because the alternative’s starving.

This unironically happened in this country 100 years ago, and it can happen again.

>done right.

Here's your problem, as a guy working in an environment high-risk for automation (warehouse work).

I've literally watched my employing company waste millions on machinery that doesn't work.
I have then gone on to watch my company go on to outsource for more machinery, from the vary companies that provided the faulty equipment before.

This engineering company... is currently 3-4 years past its last deadline to get something working. We've already ordered 3 more.

It's hurt our performance, and worst of all a bunch of us doing the job warned our bosses that we could reasonably predict this venture of theirs failing.

It was shrugged off as expendables worrying about being expendable.

The bigger cost to businesses, social climbing middle management without a clue. The guys who can spend so long looking at a spreadsheet but lack the awareness to know cheaper can cost more if you're being played.

Here's the real kicker; they had to get new equipment, for insurance purposes. I'm not even complaining about that, I know why certain decisions were made. But it wasn't done right, and choosing to go with the same guys who let us down before is just poor form.
7
Well, dude who made these decisions fired off the good managers that we looked up to and deliberately brought in bullies that managed to piss not just us off, but outsourced companies that actually helped us too, that no longer help us.

I dunno, I help them dig their own grave now. Every idea is a good idea, until I have to put my name on it.

EMTs and paramedics already make squat unless they're working for big, municipal departments. Private security guards make squat. Corrections officers make slightly more than squat, but you're a fool if you think those jobs can't be automated away as private prisons hiring nonunion workers become more the norm.

You're essentially arguing that people ought to take low-skilled jobs that any moron can do because theres going to be a great demand for surplus labor.

I think the problem is that a lot of young people, especially people living in successful suburban areas, don't realize that they're already living in a post-crash employment world.

The industrial sector was gutted by free trade. Steel is a shadow of what it used to be. Coal is dying. The new energy industry in the US is already highly automated. The unions are gone. Privatization and low-bid contracting has gutted municipal jobs. Thing is, nobody under the age of 40 or so remembers what it used to be.

My grandfather inherited basically nothing, drove a bread truck for 25 years, retired with a full pension at 55, and then travelled throughout Europe and Asia until he and my grandmother were in their late 60s. My grandmother never worked and never inherited much either.

My father never went to college. He worked for the city digging ditches for 15 years then worked in the office for another 15. He made close to $65k a year before OT, eight weeks vacation, good health insurance, and left with an 80% pension. The city never refilled his position.

Now OP is talking about how people need to become night watchmen because the McDonalds jobs are going to dry up. 100 years ago when shit got bad people started striking and throwing bombs at cops who tried to break up the strikes. Today they argue about who's lives matter or wear red hats to trigger the libs.

Incompetent managers arent something new. Any worthwhile organisation will make triple sure who they put to management positions, ideally its the workers themselves who know the processes happening inside because they were part of them.

Every other variant is just slow or fast death of company. Bleed them user, but dont forget to look for different job.

Mate, I'm golden.

Never absent, show up early, hit well over my performance and get on well with my department managers (the good bosses directly above me, not middle-management asshats who like to throw their weight around).

Not for them, but for the inevitable tribunal when one of their bullies targets me. Came close before, but someone who knew shit stepped in a demoted the bully. Handled it real well unfortunately.

They always offer payouts and NDAs to their victims. I won't accept a bribe, it's more important to me that there is a public record of how they treat employees there.

I have enough saved to go for it in a lengthy tribunal, and if I win, even if I don't get as much money, it'll hurt them because it makes it soo easy for the next guy to prove this is a pattern of behavior with the company.
It'll make lawyers and solicitors think they can get more out when it comes to payouts, it will affect any cost/benefit analysis that involves potential lawysuits and payouts (this company has plenty).

Only way to really win, is for more people to turn down their money and NDAs.

>They'll go back to school to make themselves more employable
People have done this, user, it doesn't always work like that. They're not gonna want to spend even more money or spend more time in a field that may just be rendered obsolete anyways by automation.
>the same science that eliminates old jobs, may very well create new ones
You don't know that for sure. This isn't the 1900s, where for instance automobiles replaced horse buggies and provided a better paycheck for the workers. This is the 21st century. Robots may be stupid and expensive now, but soon enough, automation will be a legit threat. We're far past the age of industrialization.
In other words, we're fucked.

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>a lot of companies are putting billions of dollars into tech
>you should go into physical labor

The point of tech isn't usually to replace humans, its to make their jobs more efficient. Its why factories are like 80% machinery now with a few humans here and there helping drive things a long.
Like robots replacing surgeons, its not that they're literally doing the entirety of a surgeon's job, but they make a single surgeon so much more efficient and better at their job that a hospital staff doesn't need to hire as many surgeons to get the same work done.

Here's the thing: you'll never see the one that works.

You'll feel things are fine for a long time, but you'll get brought into the office one day at 4:30PM, and they'll tell you they're doing layoffs. It's not your fault, but you're to clean out your desk and be out by 5. Don't worry, they'll say, you'll get your 2 weeks pay and 6 weeks severance, plus a good reference (After you sign an NDA, of course). You'll wonder what the hell happened, all their prototypes were garbage before, how could they have laid you off?

What happened was you saw the 3-4 years of versions that failed. In another warehouse, where my friend was doing testing, they finally got things to work on the new system. It's both producing more than your factory by an order of magnitude, because robots are usually faster, and without requiring a team of expensive employees who want healthcare and a pay-raise every year.

They laid you off because, with their now-working prototype, they want to close down your plant, use the new system, and even with cost of closeage, the stats say it'll pay itself back within 6 months, after which you're permanently obsolete at that plant.

Suddenly, your years of experience working in the warehouse mean nothing, because they'll also likely have a hiring freeze, since if the stats hold out in the new factory as well, they're going to roll out nationwide. You, and a fuckton of people with the exact same skillset as you are suddenly dumped onto the job market, unceremoniously and with a footnote in the associated press, because it's only 20,000 jobs or whatever.

So feel free not to worry about automation, so long as you don't mind being "promoted to a customer".