Economic Collapse General - /ECG/

Have a bump friend
Already ordered another 10oz, am I gonna make it?

??? how can we be headed for collapse like nigga just print more money like

Is a Recession on the Horizon?

The odds suggest the U.S. will enter a recession some time relatively soon.

How soon?

Let’s review the data.

(Going forward, when I refer to the “yield curve” inverting, I’m referring to the 10-year-3-month Treasury spread.)

For the past 7 instances of the yield curve (10-year-3-month spread) inverting, a recession has followed on average 12 months later. On a median basis, the recession has followed 6.5 months later. As a reminder, the yield curve inverted for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis in March 2019.

On average, from the time the yield curve inverted to the next stock market peak (before the recession), the S&P 500 has rallied by 11.9% (not including dividends).

On March 22, 2019, when the yield curve inverted, the S&P 500 closed at 2801. Since then it has rallied by 7.6% to 3,014. Based on the historical data, the S&P 500 is close to peaking (~5% potential upside remaining).

It is important to note that the above is just average data.

For the Great Financial Crisis, the yield curve first inverted on January 17, 2006. The S&P 500 peaked 21 months later in October 2007, up 22%!

In 1965, the yield curve first inverted on November 11, 1965. The S&P 500 peaked 36 months later in November 1968, up 18%!

In 1972 and 2000, the S&P 500 had already peaked by the time the yield curve inverted.

stockspinoffinvesting.com/the-yield-curve-is-still-inverted-is-a-recession-imminent/

>Fed can't lower interest rates much further
They've been raising it.
>pre-Trump 2016 articles
>shitty videos
Fuck off.

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FUCK OFF GLOBALIST LEFTY COMMIES SHILLING THIS SHIT, TRUMP 2020 FAGGS.

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America is better positioned to ride out a recession than most other nations, at this point. If the global economy shits its pants, the US isn't going to bear the brunt of it. It's Europe and China that will be fucked.

t. boomer Peter Zeihan viewer

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Pension fund managers in Europe are discussing taking all their money out of negative yield bonds and putting cash into a bank vault, and just paying the pensioners out of that. This is pure insanity that's going to have massive repercussions world wide.

So I don't disagree with you, but I think the tone of your comment underplays the severity of the issue. It's like saying sitting in the back seat of a vehicle won't be as bad as sitting in the front during a 120mph car crash. Technically true but you're fucked either way.

What is the alternative to the market? Will the people be led into war when we have the internet and can talk because we're all thinking rational human beings? HAHAHAHA just kidding get ready for righteous war

Gold is the solution.

My impression is that it's not so much an inversion as a general flattening in the last few decades, right across the board.
There's not much of an 'inversion' now in absolute terms compared to 10-20 years ago when rates were over 5% to 10% and the inversion was of several percent.
(see yield curve.webm which I can't attach for some reason, pic unrelated)

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>Trump is going to single-handedly save the economy!

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>There's not much of an 'inversion' now
Every single yield curve has inverted... what do you mean?

There's a recent increase in interest for buying gold. Silver is arguably the better bet and doesn't have the normie attention yet.

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I mean all the rates short to long term are lower, so the negative difference is very little (like half a percent). So it's still an inversion, but the driver to go long term or short term is not as strong as a difference of several percent.
Though I guess if you're dealing with billions of dollars every hundredth of a percent matters, so not sure if my thinking is that valid. Just that it's a different world now compared to what it was back in the day.

We won't hit a recession until the EU goes into full on depression.

China and the EU are going to print a shit ton of money for a while, then go tits up broke.

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>China
If things get too bad for China, there's a decent chance they'll call in their international debt and fuck everybody over.

Leaf, you can't even afford groceries, you're already in a depression. What are you talking about?

But seriously, the point is that's soon, very soon. They're already selling negative yield bonds.

How much value will there be in gold if the global economy totally tanks for more than a few years (Great Depression style) and people suddenly can't afford or be bothered with having the latest iPhone?
Or commemorative coins for that matter.
I think it will still be tradeable (baring any law forbidding it) and desirable to have, but I don't think it's going to hold its current value and you're going to have to overcome the psychological barrier of selling it for a third of what you paid for it.
(pic related) geology.com/minerals/gold/uses-of-gold.shtml)

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They can't just "call their debt." It's like any other mortgage or loan, the USA just has to print enough to cover the next payment. It would be like a bank saying they are taking your house even though you have never missed a payment, not really possible.

If they could do something that would bankrupt the USA, they wouldn't, because the USA is the only consumer market that looks like its going to make it through the next 5 years relatively healthy and unscathed.

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Not an argument.

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This.

Really, isn't this upcoming economic crisis mostly about how China cocked up all their grand plans? They dreamed of replacing America as the dominant world power. They dreamed of the yuan replacing the dollar as a reserve currency, and they dreamed of oil prices denominated in yuans. But they didn't move slowly enough, and they built up too much debt, and they pushed too far in some respects and not far enough in others. And now it's all going to go tits up for them, and China is going to go boom.

It's a bit tragic, observed from a distance. There's that old quote from The Wire: "Come at the king, you best not miss." Well, China missed.

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Their frantic GDP growth was fueled almost entirely by manufacturing which other southeastern Asian countries will continue to compete on. They just don't have enough service based industries to keep it up. They're fucked.

>USA just has to print enough to cover the next payment

And that's exactly what everyone wants. It causes a thing called hyperinflation.

I know Canadians start shaking in fear of the USA collapsing because your irrelevant nation will get even more irrelevant, but it's inevitable now.

None of this matters anyways.
Biologicals are already in every Country.
9 Months until they're activated.

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They also sold those goods in to the US and the other places at no or very low tarrifs, so they had it pretty good really.
They're still free trade with NZ but our economy is tiny, so that's not going to help them.

bump

GOLD STANDARD HERE WE COME BABY

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checked
happens by end of year

AND POSITIVE DOW FUTURES. /THREAD

IT'S LESS THAN A TRILLION DOLLAR TREASURY EXPOSURE THE CHICOMS HAVE. IT'S LITERALLY NOTHING PEOPLE ARE MORONS

>boomer thinks recessions can be prevented

MEMEFLAG THINKS HYPERINFLATION IS POSSIBLE BECAUSE BUGMEN SELL 800B IN TREASURIES. IF WE HAVE HYPERINFLATION IT WON'T BE BECAUSE OF BUGMEN.

Is there a way to make money off of the collapse in the long term? Will crypto be worth a shit or is bitcoin just a meme?

Just hold on.

Thread theme

youtube.com/watch?v=Gs069dndIYk

Cryptocurrency was created by the elite to become the one world currency. If they get their way everyone will earn and spend virtual credits through a DNA verified crypto wallet implanted under the skin and everyone's data from any device connected to internet will be live streamed to anyone who pays for it. Google Streamr data coin and read their plans for real time data

So you’re saying the recession is almost 2 years away? Well why the fuck is anyone even worried.

DELUSIONAL

>tfw poor

HURRRRRRR GOLD
HURRRRRRRRRR SILVER
HURRRR GOLD STANDARD

this guy is not holding any gold and is shitting himself

/PTG/ absoluetly shitting itself that meme man will preside over an economic colapse

I’ve got a lot of everything chief. Precious metals only gold standard people are gradeschool tier retards.

Damn, sure thing Jesus.

and large nation states

>protip: half of those links are literally monetizing uncertainty/panic/fear porn
They're no different from the people who sell bunkers and water filters.

Why does Jow Forums always throw its critical mind out the window the moment it suits it? Just like with the OKCupid stats.

what's wrong with the OKCupid stats?

Oh yea did anyone take a look at google trends for recession, we have a huge ass spike like 08. I hear you can use trends to predict when disease outbreaks occurs as people look for cures or buy certain supplies. I guess it can be done with the economy based on searches related to sales.

The data does not reflect entire populations as they have no controls over self-selection bias (read: not all people will sign up, only those who are so inclined will). It's a biased sample and to pretend it's not, you'd have to make numerous completely baseless assumptions about men and women.

fair point, thanks for activating my almond

No problem, most people just call me a jew or a roastie for pointing that out.

HUUURRRRR FIAT CURRENCY
HURRRRRRRRRR PAPER TICKETS WITH PICTURES OF PRESIDENTS ON THEM
HURRRRRRRRRRRRR FEDERAL RESERVE MUST BE LEGIT
HURRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

oh, hi!
friendly reminder that Jow Forums is awful bad forecasting and specially in economic matters.
but sure you'll keep pushing these threads until they get deleted or people gets tired.
it's not happening.

Meh, it will happen eventually, I doubt it'll go down in the next 6 months, those niggers will delay the inevitable, but it will happen in about a decade or two.

of course it will, it must, the economic system we have works that way.
BUT, it won't be soon, that's wy this kind of threads are retarded.
some time ago the Deustche bank was about to implode and bring us back to caves. nothing happened.
prepare yourself for an everyday chart analisys
>IT'S GOING UP
>IT'S GOING DOWN
>IT'S THE HAPPENING
>Its_all_so_tiresome.png