Pacific Forces General are aimed at creating an open dialogue to discuss the implementation of force and the dynamic power relations that exist between regional states and powers. This edition of the series will be centered around the United States Navy, particularly 7th Fleet, and the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force. Specifically I would like the thread to revolve around the current state of relations that exist around the JMSDF-7th Fleet regarding combating a near peer adversaries.
2018 has an eventful year for the JMSDF and the USN, and there has been a series of firsts (at least firsts to me) and a more general sense of attention being placed on them and their increasingly more prominent role in the Indo-Pacific. Here are some maritime exercises/notable events that have occurred over the year and what makes them important.
Iron Fist 2018- >news.usni.org/2018/01/15/iron-fist-2018-ramps-training-japan-readies-1st-amphibious-unit Iron Fist 2018 was the first time the Japan has conducted amphibious landing exercises since World War ll. With the force only at 350 soldiers, and slated to eventually grow into a 3,000 man Brigade, the Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade is essentially going to become the Japanese equivalent of a Marine Expeditionary Unit, designed to take back islands that were invaded and captured from the Chinese, it will function extremely similar to how US ARGs operate in near peer scenarios. During RIMPAC 18’ they participated with the USMC and the Aussies in an amphibious landing, and earlier last month did another amphibious landing with the 3rd MEU from the Wasp ARG in the Philippines. It should be noted that the JMSDF does not have enough amphib ships to embark all 3,000 soldiers, and it is believed that a sizeable portion of the amphibious brigade will be operating on already disputed islands/other archipelagos in conjunction with the US Army/USMC with longer range AShMs to act as A2AD networks.
Japan has done (as far as I know) a record amount of naval exercises in the South China Sea. With multiple Izumos and Hyugas conducting ASW operations with CSG 5. Of all of them, the most notable was Keen Sword 19’ that finished earlier this month. Keen Sword had 1 / 5 of all JSDF personnel and ⅓ of it’s destroyer fleet participate in the exercise. As well as 2 Soryu SSKs and a 688I SSN. The CCP has always been very opposed to the JMSDF conducting higher end exercises in the SCS, so the fact that there has been at least 3 separate exercises there with 3 seperate DDHs helps demonstrates that the US is serious about increasing its presence in the region, and Japan's willingness to play a more prominent role. It should also be noted that this is the first time (again that I’m aware of) that the JMSDF and 7th Fleet has openly stated that Japanese SSKs and a USN SSN has done an high end ASW exercise in conjunction with each other. I think it’s safe to assume that all 3 Subs worked as opfor at one point, they worked as a Russian/PLAN style wolf pack. Making me wonder that in future flashpoints we might see JMSDF SSKs operate with a USN SSN in a wolf pack type of formation.
One of the more interesting doctrine changes that has happened this year was the introduction of the new Dynamic Force Employment Model. The DFE is meant to have capital ships like Nimitz Class CVNs and LHA/Ds become more strategically unpredictable so that would be adversaries would not capable of easily tracking the movement of USTFs. This is aimed at decreasing time in maintenance and generally not putting as much stress on ships since they are not going to be deployed for as long as they have been for the past two decades. The USN has also put an increased emphasis on having multiple CSGs work with each other, or multiple CVN CSGs in general, for training and exercises. With the George H.W. Bush and the USS Abraham Lincoln conducting flight training with F-35Cs, to the John C. Stennis conducting dual CSG training with the USS Carl Vinson in some manner before it sailed to 7th Fleet and did high end exercises with the Reagan CSG and cross decked VFAs from each CAW to the other. It appears to see that the USN has been putting increased emphasis on CSGs being capable of operating with each other in more complex environments. Hopefully 2019 will be the first year where the USN does the CSG v CSG Fleet Problem, if it hasn’t happened already.
This is a lite thread, so it’s for more casual dialogue and questions, as well as being more broad range, so feel free to ask questions or bring up /PFG/ related topics as you wish. Doesn’t necessarily have to be JMSDF/7th Fleet related, would just appreciate it.
with the Philippines going all wildcard, how's their navy? Any meaningful contribution to the balance if (big if) they let China base there?
Hudson Turner
Oh almost forgot, the 2019 Index Review of US Military Strength by the Heritage Foundation was published last month, I'm only about an hour and a half into it but it's a good read.
Eh, they aren't really all that wildcard, just the military trying to damage control Duterte until he's out of office, the Philippine military has no actual desire to cut ties with the US and to that extent the West. Their Navy is really really meh tier, but they're slowly starting to modernize. Getting some pretty capable South Korean Frigates down the line and they wanna start working on a SSK program, but I forget with who.
Possibly within the end of next week. A Burke and a fleet replenishment oiler sailed through yesterday, marking the 3rd time this year, two in the past month, which is unprecedented for the past 5 years at least. Even then it's up in the air, the USN got gud at shaking up deployment cycles pretty quickly.
The trouble with watching the Chinese economy is that every time something becomes looked at as a measure of economic performance, it becomes prone to manipulation and so untrustworthy. Certainly looking at things that can't be hidden like the debt refinancing costs for big Chinese property developers you can see that things are at least as tough as they were for China in 2014, but now they don't have the same foreign currency cash reserves and debt head-room they had then.
Regardless, the ratio of combined debt to GDP in China is growing at breakneck speed (they're going to overtake the USA in indebtedness while a middle-income country), while returns on all that investment is getting worse and worse. Postponing deleveraging is going to hit them hard.
What actions other than naval exercises can be done to slow Chinese expansion in the SCS? Also were a naval confrontation with China to happen what location would it most likely start?
Leo Sullivan
Bump, I missed these threads.
Nathan Martin
>What actions other than naval exercises can be done to slow Chinese expansion in the SCS? Unironically deploy US Marines onto a Spratly Island. Especially the second it becomes apparent that China is building upon another reef. >Also were a naval confrontation with China to happen what location would it most likely start? Taiwan. You're gonna start seeing then US treat Taiwan much, much more differently in the coming years. Theres been a general call to start directly incorporating Taiwan into US strategy in the Pacific for obvious reasons, and great power competition with China hasnt even begun yet, so its only natural for us to start reinforcing our relations with the ROC, which will send China into a rage. Keep in mind doing two FONOPs through the Taiwan Strait in less than a month is unprecedented for the 21st century. I missed you Having dedicated CVs isnt in Japans best self interest. Japan already has a CSG home ported in its country that's number 1 priority is to safeguard its host country. Hell theres increasing talks of foward deploying another CSG to 7th Fleet, possibly to Guam.
You really think Taiwan is going to be so prominent to US strategy with thier recent political leniency to China? Seems China amd ROC relations are warming lately.
Ian Williams
Because after the Cold War there was not really a regional threat that justified replacing their upgraded F-4 with more modern aircraft. Honestly, Japan had some of the youngest F-4 airframes and with its upgraded radar and avionics it made a lot of sense as a cost effective interceptor for both hostile aircraft and shipping, all they've needed is a fast missile truck. Remember Japan has been spending ~1% of GDP or less on its armed forces for the entire post WW2 period, and have had a purely defensive posture.
Asher Jackson
>Unironically deploy US Marines onto a Spratly Island. Especially the second it becomes apparent that China is building upon another reef. Is that a realistic option? >Taiwan What will the US do to ensure the have Taiwanese support?
Owen Rogers
Or do you mean Taiwan as a potential enemy?
Ryan Lewis
besides japan originally wanted to replace f-4s with f-22, but the export was banned. so they are being replaced with f-35s now.
Ryan Bennett
Did they officially switch? I know they wanted to make a domestic f23 like fighter
Anthony Hill
domestic fighter in limbo likely dropped acquiring f35s was always in the books
Benjamin Davis
Oh look another retard.
Hudson Reed
Japan is planning: in the short term withdraw the F-4 and procure 42 F-35As assembled at Nagoya, medium term modernise around half of their F-15 fleet and procure another F-35 batch with a possibility of some being F-35B, and in the long term (beyond 2030) the F-2s (and possibly remaining F-15) are to be replaced by a new fighter with preferably a majority Japanese development.
>t. salty tier 88 city property investor
Jace Evans
>You really think Taiwan is going to be so prominent to US strategy with thier recent political leniency to China? Taiwan has to be. >Seems China amd ROC relations are warming lately. They arent >Is that a realistic option? It's becoming more realistic, wont happen before at least 2020 but apparently Stratfor reported Taiwan is contemplating leasing Taiping to the US as a military base. >What will the US do to ensure the have Taiwanese support By sailing three Burkes and a fleet replenishment ship down the Taiwan strait twice in the span of a month and having two CSGs meet up just north of the island before conducting high end exerises in the Philippine Sea would be a good start. Giving up 72 F-16 Block 70s and 2 Brigades worth of M1A2s would also be a good idea
Seems like this is the proposed 2040C upgrade, upgrading F-15J/DJ to carry 16 Aim-120s and the JASSM among other things. I can see this becoming a joint venture between the two nations in the future.
Levi Richardson
While I would love to see non-militarised US facilities built on Taiping to draw attention to China's own militarised construction (and to support FONOPS) realistically there would need to be a far greater and more permanent breakdown in Taipei/Beijing relations for this to happen.
On a related note, are you aware of any statements the PRC has made on the Kinmen Islands? They are so very conspicuous by how rarely they are mentioned by any party, but with a major breakdown in relations they are an obvious escalation.
Josiah Thompson
>t. GED-less retard. Go read some real literature on Chinese econ statistics instead of parroting what you read on Jow Forums, moron.
Zachary Allen
>While I would love to see non-militarised US facilities built on Taiping to draw attention to China's own militarised construction (and to support FONOPS) realistically there would need to be a far greater and more permanent breakdown in Taipei/Beijing relations for this to happen. Yeah thats why I said not until 2020 at the earliest, quite a few more things need to be coming apart before that's a realistic avenue >On a related note, are you aware of any statements the PRC has made on the Kinmen Islands? They are so very conspicuous by how rarely they are mentioned by any party, but with a major breakdown in relations they are an obvious escalation. Havent heard anything on em
Also apparently on Monday the USS Chancerlorville conducted a FONOP past the Parcel Islands. This marks the 10th or so FONOP this year. The Chancelor Ville is attached to the Reagan CSG and was one of the ships that docked in Hong Kong last week.
whats the deal with chinks and winnie the pooh anyways
Austin Davis
>It does seem that things are being escalated, At an unprecedented pace, to be frank >i expect a Taiwan visit soon. As do I. Again, Stratfor reported that after a Taiwan Strait sail, some DDGs are expected to make a port call in Taiwan, and with G20 at our doorstep, it's a very real possibility, but who knows.
Would you know what port they would make a port call at?
Noah Kelly
You do realize their different ships, right?
Caleb Bailey
well duh, and since the Izumo is about as long as an LHD, the F-35B should do fine without a ramp.
Benjamin Adams
For what reason are you against a ramp, given it has performance benefits?
Carson Morales
i'm not against a ramp, just sayin it would do fine without one. that model isn't from the jap MoD by the way, its from a tamiya kit for some manga. tamiya.com/english/products/25413/index.htm
Hudson Torres
If they're getting ramps then they probably expect to use non-VTOL aircraft.
Alexander Jackson
they're replacing their E-2C's with D's, last i heard would make sense.
Bentley Wilson
obviously just build a Nimitz sized carrier. fixes the ramp problem.
Parker Gray
What would the US do to the Chinese meme islands in case things go south?
Dominic Cruz
Nothing, except cratering the runways at Paracel Islands.
The islands are not targets of any significant value. Now if the US wanted to send a loud message but restrain the actual use of force, then these islands can be...removed.
Jeremiah Hill
>deploy Marines to an island which is the contest of several nations claims What could go wrong >they aren't The KMT just won a huge wave of seats. It's very likely the pro-China KMT will win the next presidential elections.
>Before the election the DPP controlled 13 of Taiwan’s 22 counties and cities. Now the tables have been turned. The KMT will run 15 and the DPP just six.
So basically if I want to be the first US ace since 'Nam I should go Navy not AF?
William Campbell
>pro-China KMT They ain't pro Beijing, that's for sure.
Lucas Bell
>deploy Marines to an island which is the contest of several nations claims All of those nations save the PRC vehemently oppose Chinas assertion in the SCS and all call for an increased American precense in the SCS. The US could get away with it in 10 years or so, especially if Taiwan condones it. >The KMT just won a huge wave of seats. It's very likely the pro-China KMT will win the next presidential elections. They won because of the DPP failed to fix the economy, it's not because the populous wants to become apart of the mainland again. On top of an increase in military sales and collaboration that is really, really pissing off the mainland. If you wanna be one of the first fighter squadrons to see action, then yes
You're full of shit. >All of those nations save the PRC vehemently oppose Chinas assertion in the SCS and all call for an increased American precense in the SCS. WRONG. >The US could get away with it in 10 years or so, especially if Taiwan condones it. WRONG. >They won because of the DPP failed to fix the economy, it's not because the populous wants to become apart of the mainland again. You're a fucking moron. >On top of an increase in military sales and collaboration that is really, really pissing off the mainland. PRC doesn't actually give a shit. Because unlike the mouth breathing retard that you are, ACTUAL tacticians are aware of 2 things 1) Taiwan's proximity to China (this now applies to all 1st island chain locations) and the exposed nature of Taipei puts Taiwan the political entity in a very exposed position. Now I know in your fucking anime fantasy you can just dump some fucking patriots around the island and maybe get some Idol to sing some peace song, but this is real fucking life. The cost of defending Taiwan against a concerted PLA push is too high and the difficulty too great. 2) Because of this, arms sales to Taiwan are, first and foremost, commercial enterprises for the US MIC. Remember, Taiwan does NOT receive FMA.
If you are going to fucking trip and make some gay ass general, you should at least do us the favor of sporting a triple digit IQ and read some real fucking literature.
Spend sometime doing some ORIGINAL research. Collate some fucking datapoints. Then maybe people with triple digit IQs will take you at least half seriously.
You fucking faggot.
Thomas Gomez
>You're a fucking moron. No, the fact that you contend this point shows you are just a ignorant faggot.
The fact that you are mad means the truth hit a little too close to home.
Tyler Garcia
yep, you're a fucking moron too. >The fact that you are mad means the truth hit a little too close to home. 1) it's not "truth" 2) I have a very low tolerance for stupidity you should consider taking a vow of fucking silence. Nobody wants to listen to your shit.
Gavin Brown
>posted no actual arguments to his talking points, instead favoring name calling and non-arguments you sure showed him.
Jose Scott
>2) I have a very low tolerance for stupidity never look in a mirror, then./
Elijah James
+.50
Eli Perry
Yeah, you are dumb animal. Upset and only capable of going "UR WRONG".
Last response from me, enjoy the last word your brainlet ass so clearly needs.
Everyone ITT, don't respond to this joke.
Charles Gutierrez
>The cost of defending Taiwan against a concerted PLA push is too high and the difficulty too great. taiwan is worse than north korea for armored movement, you can basically only move infantry through it guess what taiwan has a lot of guess what china needs to get across the strait
Owen Bell
Why should I waste 30 minutes of my time composing a well structured brief on the geopolitical situation at hand when he (and every other fucking moron here, you included) is 1) a fucking moron 2) will just post some cherry picked bullshit of statistical insignificance so he can stroke his tiny dick? I don't fucking come here to engage in honest and open exchanges of ideas because you fucks are morons. I come here to laugh at how fucking dumb and how fucking poor you faggots here. By merely pointing out the egregious fallacies that get thrown around here as facts, I'm already doing you fags a great service.
Kevin Taylor
>EVRY1 IS DUM BUT ME IS SMART! Yeah OK kid, whatever. Scurry along now.
Lincoln Cooper
well if you have no argument, then you only make yourself look bad by providing unsubstantiated claims. i dont know if hes wrong or right (and to be honest, i do not care) but from an outsiders prospective youre the one with the burden of proof. and for a person who came here to laugh, you sure do sound mad.
And rich. Don't forget that, you retarded peasant.
Justin Johnson
>claims the want to not post large amounts of info >instead posts large amounts of shit >claims to be intellectually superior >instead posts stupidity >claims opposition has a small dick >claims opposition is poor
Libtard confirmed.
Aaron Carter
>will just post some cherry picked bullshit of statistical insignificance so he can stroke his tiny dick thats far more then you, or any other chicom ITT has posted.
Cameron Cruz
and mad, dont forget mad.
Thomas Fisher
And cringy.
Jack Turner
>well if you have no argument "argument" without data is just piss. You pathetic fucks make a little general and drink in all this fucking koolaid and you can't even perform the most basic independent analysis and due diligence. My problem isn't with the trash that is presented here. It's with the way it's presented. No data, no structured analysis, just unsubstantiated opinions.
Lucas Martinez
what's wrong with unsubstantiated opinions if they're interesting?
Parker Gray
Hey fellas I'll reply to him when I get the chance to, stop feeding him. Ant trolls like that let me handle unless you guys can pick him apart himself :3
>Libtard My 2018 PAC donations to the right most likely exceeds your fucking gross annual income, you poor fuck.
What's it like living in abject poverty with a room temp IQ? Is it liberating to live like human refuse where all decisions are made for you?
Benjamin Sullivan
>just unsubstantiated opinions. The only one with the unsubstantiated opinions, and that's you kiddo.
Jaxon Sanchez
I'm sure it does libtard.
Caleb Rogers
>No data, no structured analysis, just unsubstantiated opinions. and from what you have posted, you seem to have none of that either. all you have done is namecall. at least the other guys posts were professional and thought out. in fact, most of the posts in this thread were thought out and professional until you started namecalling. please, prove him wrong. or you can back yourself into a corner more, and keep namecalling and dodging the subject.
because at an intellectual cesspool like this, where retards are too dumb, and more importantly, too LAZY to think for themselves, opinions become facts.
Jow Forums is a prime example on why people shouldn't be allowed to vote. They want the illusion of power that comes with their votes, but they're too stupid and too lazy to be responsible with it.
You know the classical conservative philosophy that Man will always choose Truth when presented with it? Well, just like the assumption of information parity in classical economics, it's wrong. Reason is not the prime driver for Man.
Oliver James
But user, you don't even live in the US :^]
Jeremiah Hill
>because at an intellectual cesspool like this, where retards are too dumb, and more importantly, too LAZY to think for themselves, opinions become facts. its funny that you say this, yet provide no sources or structured arguments of your own.
Oliver Thompson
>at least the other guys posts were professional and thought out. >professional >thought out you wouldn't know the meaning of these terms if they hit you in the face and cracked your fucking nose. Professional does not mean courteous, and thought out doesn't equate to verbosity.
Thanks for the laugh, retard.
Aaron Adams
How does one be responsible with an illusion of power, Mr intellectual? If it is an illusion, as you contend, there would be no issue with responsibility or irresponsibility so the concept is moot.
Luke Kelly
once again, you fail to grasp the point of the post, and have dodged the subject yet again. his posts were structured, thought out and addressed each point in detail. you have done none of this, yet still act like you have. all you have done is, well, nothing. youve sat around calling everyone names yet you have failed to explain how the people you are accusing are wrong. all you have done is make yourself look like an uninformed child. once again, i do not care whether hes wrong or right, as i did not enter this thread to discuss whos favorite band of social rejects could beat up whos, but by looking at them, his posts seem far more credible than yours, since he takes the time to address the points directly rather than call people names.
Owen Carter
>but by looking at them, his posts seem far more credible than yours, since he takes the time to address the points directly rather than call people names. >since he takes the time to address the points directly Allow me to reiterate: thought out doesn't equate to verbosity. Remember the laugh I had? That smirk is slowly turning into a fucking frown.
Juan Johnson
>That smirk is slowly turning into a fucking frown. Babby gunna sperg out again?
