Hi im a defense analyst for the pentagon and compiled a list for the highest chance of war between countries in the next few decades:
Venezuela vs USA (or West)
Very high Venezuela might see a US led western intervention if it continues to become a russian-chinese proxy
Pakistan vs India
Extreme likelihood of a limited border war
PRC vs Republic of China
Highly likely of an invasion of taiwan
(Both) Koreas vs Japan
Likely if USA continues to weaken and become isolationist
You should see the movie Pentagon Wars.
>defense analyst for pentagon
>is fucking retarded
yeah, checks out
You're not a defense analyst for shit. Everyone already figured out this shit by themselves just by reading headlines every morning. This isn't some new cryptic information that opens the eyes of millions. None of these wars are even going to happen. Fuck off
>both koreas vs japan
Tel me about this one. Why does it happen
well its obvious eventually they will try to kill each other.
The first two proposed scenarios have been smouldering for the last 100 years and India v Pakistan 2018 the sandy asshole is old news. Number three has America assuming a massive loss of international political capital which won't happen anytime soon, based on all the shit kicking in going on in DC right now. So unless America First claws it's way back to relavence we're probably going to be there for the next 50 years. This is all of couse assuming china won't come down on them with a "peacekeeping" mission and pass out medals like the second coming of wounded knee.
You have a 12 year olds understanding of potential conflicts.
>no Iran vs Saudis
How so? For controlling interest in K-pop?
>Iran vs Saudis
Not happening while Uncle Sam shields Saudi asses.
Isn't this strange that these are no real issues? These are zones of potential conflict from at least 30 years ago. I bet giving FSA those M16A2's never expected them to turn into ISIS. or the fact China was supplying everyone that hates the Secular governments AKM's ammo, and those Rocket and Mortars as Afghanistan is one of the nations that Boarder China.
Honestly if the Pentagon was smart and with the times we would not be in the sandbox that is Afghanistan, for apparent no reason now. Hearts and Minds was a failed tactic thanks to the PMC's and GreenFor. The Taliban were not even a political force, and now they are being invited to the table. I would not be surprised how much a waste of the military budget is used every year overseas because the last time the U.S. won a war, they did it with a deadline to end it.
Saudi is already dealing with Yeman, and the U.S. military is frozen in that region because of political issues.
>Venezuela vs USA (or West)
What if more Rusky troops land on Venezuela? Would the US risk an invasion then?
Iran and Saudi are both non-secular governments within the region, so there is actually no real issue. It is to say they are more like brothers.
If Russia was smart, in this case they are then the news blitz was already a success.
Well yeah, and the moment someone dares to directly attack Saudis, US military will immediately become unfrozen. Iranians are not dumb, they would much rather prefer to slowly chip away Saudi positions in the region with proxy wars.
Honestly there is no reason to.The only reason U.S. is in Saudi is because of the success of Desert Storm. You forget that Saudi Arabia already has the economic GOP to outlast Iran or exhaust it's military capacity. If the conflict in the region escalated all the U.S. has to do is sell more weapons, that is how proxy wars really work. The problem is that the Crown Prince is in power and no longer the King, so the political sphere has changed.
If you still consider Iran a global threat then you are just a boomer like the rest of the politicians in power. Iran after the coup is as weak economically as ever. They are no threat, but the U.S. wants to completely destroy their non-secular and false monarchical government.
All these scenarios are duds. Will never happen b/c (1) Trump is a scaredy cat and dictarors' boot licker (2) nukes and MAD do work.
Possible black swans are all outside of U.S. sphere of control.
Missile exchange btwn Israel and Iran
Russian full scale invasion into Ukraine (finally duh)
China Vietnam skirmishes over islands
>USA continues to weaken
Every day that goes by sees America and her allies (like japan) get further ahead of everyone else.
>exhaust it's military capacity.
Well nah, I am really doubting that one. Yemen campaign has already shown how utterly incompetent and ineffective is saudi military. Saudis might have more money, but it's clear to anyone that their military is a fucking joke. Iranian military might not be as rich as it's Saudi counterpart, but it's definitely far more prepared and organized, both in conventional and proxy warfare. I really don't think that Saudis could withstand Iranians and their influence on their own, not after Yemen shitshow.
You forget that Iran can only match Saudi Arabia if A it actually has industry or B actually had military trade deals to maintain equipment, that is pretty much not serviceable. It does not matter if both militarizes are a joke, Iran participated in the dumbest war against Iraq that was purely attrition based on WW1 open ground tactics. Unless tactics have changed in the past 40 years, which is highly unlikely then the outcome would be predictable.
>(Both) Koreas vs Japan
>Likely if USA continues to weaken and become isolationist
lmaoooo what
Trump has basically ignored his role as a mediator between the two countries. Historically the US has maintain the peace between the two nations is with tri-lateral summits. Obama, W Bush, Clinton, and H Bush did actively worked the maintain the relations between South Korea and Japan.
Currently there is a huge dispute over an international law case in South Korea sees major Japanese companies having their assets seized and ordered to pay fines to the South Koreans over "comfort women" during WWII. This goes against a 1965 treaty which South Korea in general sees as unfair. The tensions are exacerbated by the rising populism of both countries. While the youngest generation doesn't really give a shit the media and the governments are old enough to see the rivalry and now that South Korea has the economic ability to challenge Japan for leading nation in the Pacific what has a smaller matter now has a huge effect on the future of regions security. This is not helped that Abe (Japanese Prime minister) and his party basically see Koreans has 3rd Worlders. The US needs to step in and mediate the newest dispute if it wants to maintain the 3-way alliance instead of two bilateral alliances, or just turn RIMPAC into the new NATO.