Alright Jow Forums...

It would be ugly, but nowhere near as unstable as Iraq in the longer term. Iraq has extreme ethnic and sectarian divides and should be partitioned (same with Syria). Iran has a much more unified national, ethnic, and religious identity.

They don't possess weapons grade material or functioning warheads. They'd bluff as though they did if they felt like an invasion might be likely though as a deterrent and we'd have to take the possibility seriously.

How many more times do we need this same thread they always play out the same

>guy asks war with Iran question
>Jow Forums muslims show up kicking and screaming about israel
>mods delete it

What are you even trying to say here?

That a ground invasion of Iran as OP stipulates would be a massive snafu.

Iran got btfo p bad by goat farmers in Syria. Russia had to save them. The much-vaunted IRGC/Hezbollah was completely unable to stem the rebellion against assad until russia arrived to bail them out.

I don't even care about that shithole tho and am 100% against war with them unless they attack first. Just saying they're a huge paper tiger on Jow Forums

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>Iran
>btfo by goat farmers
>Russia bailing them out

Iran and Russia don't even like each other much less coordinate militarily afaik.

Yes, I agree. I also don't think the country would become anywhere near as unstable as Iraq.

Uh, Russia has provided significant military assistance to Iran.

In what capacity? Since when? I'm talking after they were decolonized, not when they were occupied by both the British and Russians and wound up with a Russian trained military.

Nevermind, apparently they have started to pivot towards Russia, though I doubt that such an alliance could be stable in the long term.

cope harder vatnik
without the iran foots on the ground actuallly taking and holding ground the russian base in syria would have been overrun by and Assad hanged.
russis can be glad that iran knows that they have to tune it do and russia can just swoop in and take their success as theirs.

Why Jow Forums ruin every Iran war thread?

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>Building a pipeline through the most inhospitable and difficult terrain in the middle east
>As opposed to just building a pipeline across Saudi Arabia to the red sea
Have you never even looked at a fucking map of the area?

Iran won in Syria.

It would be extremely difficult. Iran has a much better military and defense apparatus than Iraq. While many of the youth would probably welcome the fall of the Ayatollahs, that doesnt mean they're itching to be the west. After the invasion you would have hardcore IRGC and old guard military units basically turn into q Persian VC. You would see the resurgence of the communists in Iran who've never really been eliminated, the Kurds would stir up trouble, the Azeri might make a break for it, and you can bet you bottom dollar the extreme Shia would be salivating at the thought of being a martyr for Ali and Hussein. To top it all off there is a HUGE nationalistic streak in Iranians that would come into play.

All that aside, its doable, and IMO would probably work out well long run as long as you dont get the Neocons and Neolibs involved in the aftermath of the invasion, but lets be real, they will. The problem is, Iran (just like Iraq) would turn into an ongoing war dictated by politicians and used as a bargaining chip every election cycle.

>t. Half persian who spent some time I Tehran

This. Every WW2 thread gets ruined too.

>resurgence of the communists
You mean MEK? They're very unpopular now and were completely annihilated during the Iran-Iraq war and exiled themselves overseas where ignoramuses think MEK is legitimate opposition.

They are the ones making it for a start

>half of all threads are Jow Forums bait
I just wanted to shitpost about guns

more like
>entire 4 chan is Jow Forums bait

China and Russian would definitely be opposed to any US action. More because Iran is actually modern unlike the stone age retards in Afghanistan that can't live in a democracy. I could see China possibly sending troops considering that they are itching to become a superpower and that Iran is a big oil supplier to China(The Chinese are oil dependent unlike Russia)

I would see it the other way. There would actually be more convential fighting but it would only last a few months since Iran has a garbage air force. Then terrorists would fight for a 3-5 years before we install a moderate leader. Iran is too first world to resort to extreme terrorism

Syria is still ongoing. But to your credit they are winning

>It would be extremely difficult. Iran has a much better military and defense apparatus than Iraq
Not really. The Iraqi army in 1991 was closer to the US forces than Iran is today.

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Real shit? I knew Iraq would a lot of troops but did they have similar military tech also?

lmao no, Saddam was running T72s and Type 69 tanks. Absolute garbage compared to what the coalition hit him with.

I realize that I wrote that in a confusing way:
What I meant was that the gap between US and Iraq in '91 was far smaller than it is between US and Iran today. Iraq had a competent IADS assembled by French technicians, an air force that was at least somewhat of a challenge to the coalition forces, and a large amount of battle-hardened republican guard troops that were equipped with WarPac, Brazillian, and French gear that was at least mostly modern. Of course, this all collapsed within weeks. The extent of Iran's defense industry today is cloning old US missile and nig-rigging their western sha-era purchases together with chinese parts so they keep somewhat functional.

That's what I thought. No way that 30 American tanks could blow through 300 Iraqi tanks with no causalities

Okay thank you

They own Russian aircraft and more recent missile systems that the Russians trained them on.

This is some serious ESL.

Jow Forums was a mistake

Imagine Afghanistan but with a decent army with relatively modern equipment, a chain of command that’s not retarded

Yeah, they've pivoted from buying from US surplus to buying Russian and domestic stock. That's the position that they actually didn't want to be in.

The relationship will fall apart though because Russia can't tolerate a regional power sitting on its doorstep in central Asia and Iran can't have the threat of the Russian bear hanging over it for long.

Won what? Their ally lost control of huge chunks of their country, including large oil rich regions. And Iran list several high ranking military personnel. They literally stretched themselves to bet lose influence. All they did was prevent further loss for them had they done nothing.

Iran would be a fucking disaster for China and push their neighbors further towards the west.

Why the ever loving FUCK would we do that?
We already overthrew their government once back in 1954, and that led to the US embassy takeover years later.
Ron Paul was right.

And that's fucking nothing compared to Iraq or Syria. Understand the term "relatively".

There isn't any real evidence to support this narrative. Russia and Iran in Syria have ranged from working together to simply not opposing one another. If Russia actually cared about Iran gaining regional influence (which they don't), they wouldn't supply or work with them.

Iran's govt is basically run by the mafia. except that its less efficient and slower to get things done. the only people that are allowed by law over there to do the big public works projects have to be family of either the republican guard, or religious authority. it's why the road in the city he is from havent been repaved or repaired since the shah fell, but his uncle has been paid 23 times for completion of the project over the years.

it's all kickbacks and scams. its why they have roads worthy of africa. I have seen the videos my Iranian neighbor took with his Nikon DSLR. its like coal mining or timber roads.

dont tell the neocons that, they love pointless, stupid and futile gestures.

Colin Powell was sucked into lying to the UN, it ruined his carrer.
He was probably the only decent person in Bush's cabinet, and they ruined him.

They love Israel above all else. The whole reason they want to destroy Iran is because Iran supports Hezbollah.

the whole reason the israelis hate iran is, Iran is full of spergs that will tell israel to go fuck themselves, at the slightest provocation, and when you tell the to shut the fuck up we know they are behind everything bad, they just howl louder about it. i think the whole central southern asia/middle eastern area should be glassed. nothing of value would be lost.

Iran is memri.tv the nation.

That would be Pakistan, Iran is going the Turkey route with Islam

google russian intervention in syria, which happened 4 years after Iran tried to stem the tide (and failed)

I mean they spent so much on the war that there are breadlines in Tehran and people rioting but sure. thanks to russian gibs and lives and sweat they avoided losing and were on the winning side

>being proud of someone else having to bail you out
yikes

Saddam probably had better tech than Iran does outside of anti-ship missiles

iranian performance in syria suggests even their best units are p retarded. They were being massacred and losing CONVENTIONAL battles until the russians arrived

its oddly like pakistan in the cities according to dude. its out in the boonies were its all clans being suspicious of outsiders unless the outsiders are brought in and vetted by one of the important members of the clan.

actually that is pretty paki too.

he also said there are shitloads of zoroastrians who say they are muslim, because they don't want to deal with the dhimmi shit. there are lots of people up in the deep mountains and weird shit with some cult the govt dropped artillery on back in 1998 by pakistan. they supposedly worshipped michael jackson and acted like the jonestown cult. like 800 people died there. they just dug big holes and bulldozed everything in.

Nope, Russia just came when it was convinient, you didnt see Russia spending billions in aid every year to keep Assad and his goverment afloat.

The goal is to control the Yemeni coastline and prevent a replication of the Hormuz problem on the western Arabian peninsula. Not to physically run pipelines through Yemen itself.

>the MEK
No dingus. Dont put words in my mouth. I mean the CPI. They have a legitimate (albeit stupid) following in the university circles of Iran.

>there has been zero improvement in Iranian weapons platforms over the past 27 years
I dont care for Iranians and I can tell you that's stupid to say

Funny how everyone always compares this to Iraq when Iraqian soldiers couldn't give a shit to saddam or the country, their morale was a little more than 0, the entire Iraq is a completely flat desert with a few cities here and there, that's not to say the arab's known fight proweness

Different animals, right? The Iranian military has components for projecting power whereas Arab armies are typically for policing their own populace.

>Iraqian

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Is unironically right

>there are lots of people up in the deep mountains and weird shit with some cult the govt dropped artillery on back in 1998 by pakistan. they supposedly worshipped michael jackson and acted like the jonestown cult. like 800 people died there. they just dug big holes and bulldozed everything in.
Hello new Far Cry setting.

>how difficult would it be for the US to invade Iran and neutralize its nuclear weapons/WMD sites?
In fact, you don't need to invade. Global Strike is going to be ready in a couple of years. After that, you can hit any point of Iran's territory with your hypersonic missiles with 0 chance of interception.

"Anyone who wouldn't sacrifice billions in tax revenue and thousands, if not tens of thousands, of young American men in the name of Israel MUST be a Muslim"

Iran has cleaner hands than Saudi Arabia or Israel. Iran didn't finance the assassination of JFK, nor did they commit war crimes on our navy during peace time, nor was their government involved with 9/11

See it like this :
In WW2, it was done in barely 1 month by the brits and the soviets.

Military simulations show Iran defeating a US invasion in some circumstances. The US military is on its last legs and they don't have the logistics to support a long war in Iran or anywhere else in another continent.

> neutralize its nuclear weapons/WMD sites?
Militarily you could set them back a few years fairly easy but any offensive action would result in retaliation by proxy forces.
Diplomatically one could limit them and increase breakout times to reasonable levels unless you listen to a fucking idiot named Bolton.

>full destruction of Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs?
Missile programs are fairly well dispersed. You could destroy the factories but they are hardened enough that plenty of tooling would survive and rebuilding would be relatively simple. As before any military strike will result in retaliation.
Diplomatic options are fairly limited but getting them to accept MTCR restrictions, even without membership, should be possible. Assuming Bolton doesn't fuck up everything again.

>compare to the invasion of Iraq in terms of logistics and duration?
If you land ground troops you lose. Invasion means war and with its stocks of AShM, 20k naval mines, and fleet of small craft Iran is fully capable of threatening the Straight of Hormuz, the risk to the oil trade is unacceptable as even a couple tankers going down would have massive effects. Furthermore with its large stocks of ATGMs and MANPADS Iranian fighters would extract a far higher toll on American ground forces then the public would accept. Air and missile strikes with perhaps a few special operations teams are the only real option.

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As long as it takes me to become a general so I can go ham and get revenge on them for the Iranian girl that broke my heart :(

So :

>Invade Iran

>Threaten the turks to proclaim recognition of Kurdistan if they don't clean up their act.
>If the turks turn to Russia for help, the kurds get to act from puppet-Iran, going full Viet-Minh on the turks through the border.

>Offer the northern part to Azerbadjan, >Basically doubling the size of their country while washing our hands of the occupation problem.

>Give the turkish lands to Turkmenistan because Sunni and shit.

>See if the Lurs would be interested in having their very own country.
>See if the Baluchs also want some.
>Set an emirate on the coast, with the most powerful arab family at the head.

>Divide to rule and shit

Iran has the right to own nukes if they want.

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>The US military is on its last legs
>They don't have the logistics to support a long war in Iran
>Or anywhere else in another continent.

Good one.

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>You literally can't back this with evidence.
You can if you look at the last 50 years of middle eastern foreign policy.

So long as the US has air superiority any war against conventional shithole armies will be a massacre
You'd probably get something similar to Iraq with the US sending missiles and airstrikes from the Gulf
Marines land in the South and push north

You didn't even attempt to support your argument.with any facts. Look at a map. Read the news. Nothing is getting build in Yemen, and sure as fuck not a pipeline.

This nigga knows.

If we launch a conventional ground invasion, then we become the government of Iran, and that would suck.

Iran has the capability to make our lives really unpleasant if we screw with them, so we really shouldn't, unless it's absolutely essential.

The whole purpose of the IRGC is to police the populace with some supporting Shia-sunni strife abroad

Israel didn’t do any of that either so...

Do you want them to keep supplying China with oil?

Right. They have elements that are for training up and supporting proxy forces.

Go back to Jow Forums dipshit. Israel didn't pull any of that shit. Last I checked the Iranians held 400 Americans hostage in the US embassy

Yes. China's increasing reliance on foreign energy is a good thing for the US.

Not him, and not Jow Forums but Israel did bomb our Navy once. Now with the JFK bullshit I have no fucking clue what kind of meth he's been smoking.

And the US Navy shot down an Iranian civilian airliner full of passengers. Shit happens.

Realistically here's what I see happening as a scenario.

There is a lengthy buildup to war for "nuclear disarmament". Trump makes noises about nuclear this and nuclear that while that faggot Bolton whispers in his ear like he's fucking Grima Wormtongue. Iran sees us coming a mile away and has all of the time in the world to prepare. Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies get a lot nastier about harrying us everywhere they are, which might surprise you. The straight of Hormuz is preemptively mined and the price of oil naturally spikes around the time that we start to move our warships into position. This costs us a significant amount of soft power, but we'd already take a massive hit for going even further back on our treaties with Iran. Already it's a shitshow that's costing more than it should.

In the proceeding months we see Afghanistan turn a lot nastier for the forces that we have there because we never really controlled the Southern portion of the country and the Iranians don't want us resupplying from there. They cut deals with drug lords and local fighters that they wouldn't normally have cut just to make us bleed a few more drops. Pakistan's ISI probably starts getting up to more than they already are in the ensuing Chaos.

We would probably invade through Turkey and Iraq, though suddenly the support of the Shia coalition in Iraq wanes and we'd have to worry about partisans and a sudden uptick in militant groups operating out of Iraq hitting our back lines, so Turkey it is. Initially we'd have to move through the mountains where Kurdish presence is heavy, and you can bet that former ISIS fighters would take a few shots at us if they got the opportunity as we mobilize. It would be a long slog through those mountains, and that's where a lot of the conventional efforts to stop us would probably take place.

cont'd

Naturally we would eviscerate their air force in maybe a week, then hit them with our air power. We'll blow up most of what we already know are nuclear related facilities and a bunch of random buildings, but we won't do significant damage to their nuclear energy development capabilities or hit anything particularly important. There will be a few raids by SOF to grab intel and take out targets, but it'll probably be like the early phases of Afghanistan where JSOC was running around blowing up shit that didn't amount to as much strategically as it probably should have.

Now we come to a fork. If we do the smart thing we have Special Forces and Special Tactics work with the Kurds to take Iranian held Kurdistan with our support.. This throws up diplomatic problems with Turkey because they aren't partial to the Kurds, but we don't want to have to send in heavy conventional boots on the ground. The Kurds seize the part of the country that they care about, and they deal with waves of Iranian troops and various militants coming in from outside of the country, but they do it with US support and Turkish opposition. This is likely to be a very nasty war, but we come out of it a little bit better. The other route is that we send in a large body of ground troops and they become prime targets for the Iranians and their proxies. There is no need to do this if we're just after their nuclear capabilities but once the various liches in the military-industrial complex, the oil lobby, and the chicken hawks get their chance to whisper in Trump's ear then we'll go in with the intention of openly looting the country's oil wealth.

cont'd

If Afghanistan is anything to go by and the Kurds operate to the standards of the Northern alliance then we take the Western portion of the country and the urban centers, but the Iranians go to ground and start hitting us all throughout the region. Turkey will be zero help and will probably fan the flames as much as possible. Iraq probably destabilizes in the ensuing chaos as the Shia portions suddenly get openly militant. Hezbollah hits us in South America and a few other places, probably even in Turkey, and they dig into Lebanon further. We might even see a few bombings in Qatar and other gulf states.

The State Department is in no shape to be overseeing a rebuilding effort, so after we force their government into hiding or exile we lack any meaningful partner force outside of the Western part of the country. Naturally we grab the oil fields because the Trump administration can't resist the impulse, which they set on fire before we get there. Trump makes a big show of how the oil will pay for it, and does so in such an open manner that it invites diplomatic rebuke from the rest of the West further weakening our soft power. We proceed to spend the next few years getting bombed and shot at across multiple fronts, probably pulling out of Afghanistan and effectively ceding it to Iranian and Pakistani control. Iraq winds up in Iranian hands because we don't care to fight them over there.

Realistically they'll eventually take back control of everything but Kurdistan the minute that we pack up and start to pull out because the cost in lives and treasure is racking up, probably deposing whoever we set up as the official government in the region. Turkey undermines our efforts in Kurdistan in any way it can because they don't want Eastern Turkey to become a problem for them. Turkish proxies probably shoot mostly at the Kurds and not at US troops, if we're lucky.

cont'd

In short the whole region gets dicked over and Iran isn't in a much weaker position for having its capital occupied and its "nuclear facilities" blown up, and we spend a whole bunch of lives and money for essentially nothing. Nobody sensible would advocate for this, but as we know plenty of jackasses are advocating for this so it will very possibly happen.

tl;dr: What is initially a mission to take out Iranian nuclear facilities turns into another shit show occupation while Iraq and Afghanistan implode. The cost skyrockets. Iran winds up in a somewhat stronger position by the end of the war.

>A functioning nation who for the longest time is seen as the defender of all Shia Muslim Peoples.
>Easy

It would make Afghanistan look like a church.

Iran has daily food riots these days. Not very functional. Unless a Democrat gets elected that gives them gibs and lifts sanctions like Obama did then Iran will be Venezuela tier in 5 years