Inflation is through the roof, with the Stock Market at its peak before it closed on Wednesday, it seems like a bubble that has been getting larger every month.
Powell tried to raise interest rates and speculators almost took the bait. If the next recession doesn't have interest rates to lower, are we just going to TARP 2.0 again, double the debt, and blame it on the banks (who the government is telling to be risky).
I enjoyed the last thread see picture
Thoughts in relation to Boogaloo?
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We're overdue for a recession, so it'll happen eventually. No reason to believe it'll be any worse than 2008, though.
>no reason... for it to be any worse
Wrong
We have no net or recovery tools
We used them in 2008 and never fixed it
It can very easily become a free fall the moment the confidence collapses, and the bottom is a long, long, long ways down
But hey it’s not all bad, the DOW will hit new highs. Kinda.
Well, if we can start a global war before markets crash, things will be better than the 30's were at least.
Why should I care? I'm broke anyway, my money is all in my guns and ammo. They'd be worth more after the market eats itself.
Well, we can't lower interest rates; can't afford to buy failed stocks and have two extremist parts of the country who have been sitting in hiding for the past year who would love a chance to LARP and kill each other in the streets. Also its an election year, so that just raises tensions 2x in the country.
Also, just like the Great Depression, we are placing tarrifs on every country in the world, and they are retaliating, which is going to rape us.
>tfw no retirement plan
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Does Trump not understand any economic philosophy despite being a businessman?
Keynesianists, Austrians, and Chicagoists all disagree with him.
> Do America's leaders really believe in the forever Bull Market? What Neo-Keynesianist bullshit is this?
Well technically if QE gets ramped up again and interest rates go back to near zero, real interest rates will be negative. When interest rates are negative, debt becomes an asset (assuming inflation is higher than SOFR/LIBOR).
Of course, this will lead to soaring corporate bond issuances (to effectively refinance the $9T currently outstanding in US markets), but who’s to say if individual investors will buy them, or if they’ll be repackaged into some sort of massive corporate CDO (much like mortgages are).
Regardless, with the treasury yield curve inverted, the (((fed))) has already essentially stated that rates are dropping this month, and all signs indicate that they will continue to do so.
Now would prob be a good time to rebalance your 401k tho.
economy + a massive amount of illegals' children that will turn 18 over the next year will guarantee a Dem POTUS in 2020.
enjoy the gun rights will you still can bros.
What gun is this
FAMaS
ohhh yeah we're way overdue, and it's going to be a bad one.
When the DOW tanks, DXY (The Dollar Index, the number determining the value of the dollar) skyrockets, just like it did from 08-09. DXY dropped dramatically leading into 07, whereas DOW was on the rise. There is some sort of inverse relation between the two, albeit not a 1:1 ratio, and I'm not sure why.
Interestingly, both DOW and DXY are rising overall, and it could mean DXY will reach new highs while the DOW (and the other markets) corrects itself (themselves), or, both could plummet in value -but that's unlikely, because the FED would just stop printing money (aka quantitative easing) and artificially inflate the value of the currency (supply/demand), giving the US buying power in trade. The Fed is waaay more interested in seeing the value of the dollar rise above face value than it being worthless. Yes, it's a fiat currency, but most, if not all, are.
As for folks that say is only used because of Oil, they're wrong, it's used to trade for other futures markets (corn, wheat, gold, silver), other currencies, stocks and options because of supply and demand for it.
If the dollar was backed by oil, the two charts (price of oil and value of the dollar) would be identical.
>They're not. Because they're both only valued by supply and demand.
>That's right, the currency is only valued based supply and demand.
In other words, the dollar it's only valuable because China and other major industrial countries want it, and want what it represents, the value of the US. I mean, sure, the US produces a lot of oil (thanks Texas), but nowhere near the quantities of OPEC.
When the dollar was backed by gold, it was backed by the gold that we had in the national treasury. If the dollar was backed by Oil, Obama might not have depleted our reserves during his presidency.
When the recession hits, short the DOW and go long on USD/??? currency pairs.
>dis gon be gud
>US produces a lot of oil (thanks Texas), but nowhere near the quantities of OPEC
The U.S. is literally the largest oil producer in the world and has been in the top 3 for at least 5 years.
On top of that, there's a shit ton of underutilized/untapped fields all over Alaska and North Dakota due to the fact that oil is so cheap at the moment.
The dollar has been hyperinflated for a long time. Its devaluation is just hidden in the billionaires' massive cash hoards. They can't actually spend all that money without devastating the economy.
How will I know when to pull my money from the market?
So much for the trickle down argument
Largest oil refiner, not the largest oil exporter. The US is t even in the top ten of largest oil exports. The US does however export the most gasoline.
The value of the dollar is in relation to other currencies, not in relation to the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average; it’s not called DOW anywhere).
The dollar is also not backed by oil - the dollar is one of three currencies that oil is traded in.
You’re stringing together a few things, none of which are related and it makes your argument dumb. I do t know how to right that in a nicer way, but stay in school and read the WSJ.
Post (1) firearm to prove that you aren't just teenagers here from reddit
>it's dah demowhkats dath awe tahkin muh guwns!!!
Meanwhile in reality;
>trump bans bumpstocks
>trump is talking about banning silencers
>trump is then probably gonna ban shit like "high capacity" magazines
Yep, it's kinda hilarious that Trump has managed to be worse for gun rights than Obama ever was. Of course, if Trump were a democrat, the NRA and republicans in congress would've at least attempted to stop him.
Now go ahead and gripe about something else as if it somehow dismisses what i say
>inflation rises
>unemployment rises
woah thanks keynes very cool
>criticizing free market capitalism through central banking policies
That may be true, and perhaps I misspoke.
Production =/= value
Even if the US only produced 1 barrel of oil, if no one wanted it, it'd be worthless. So, we may be producing a lot of oil, but we also import a lot of oil, so the demand for US oil in other countries may not be high, ergo the low prices.
More demand, higher prices.
What? The value of the dollar is lower now than when it was from 2000-2004 and again in 2015 and 2016.
Value of the dollar is based on supply and demand, nothing more. It's used for trading, that's it. Saying it's in relation to other currencies is only partially true. Yes, it has value in conjunction with other currencies, but only through supply and demand, not intrinsic value.
>the dollar is not backed by oil.
That's... what I said.
>USD is one of three currencies that oil is traded in.
If you use currency to purchase oil, that's a trade. Last I checked, most countries just use their own currencies to buy oil based on exchange rates. If you were implying that USD is one of the three currencies used to trade in in the Futures markets, then again, you're wrong. Because more than 3 countries make up OPEC alone, not counting USA, Canada, Mexico, China, Indonesia, Russia, Australia, Qatar and Malaysia.
>my argument is dumb
Alright, fuck off and ignore me then.
No timestamp. Argument and photo dismissed.
For every crisis there is also oppurtunity.