User... you can solve this, right?

user... you can solve this, right?

strawpoll.com/b59618ab

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It's not like you can solve this either, but whatever, 50%.

my thought process

1/3
I really enjoy like, CONTENT in a post, as well as originality.

And I know what you're going to fucking say:
>Oh b b but user, since there are 3 options it's 1 in 3.
But to that I say kill yourself. No amount of sophistry will disprove the fact that the chance is 50%

If you flip a coin twice its a 50% chance it will be heads both times

This is like...one of the most hotly debated topics in statistics, and to this day people still can't decide on an answer.

1/3rd has exactly 1/3rd of the votes

>If i'm retarded then everything is sophistry

This is correct. You do it by multiplication, so 1 heads is a 50% chance, 2 heads is 25 because it's 1/4th, and 3 heads is 1/8th.

No, because there are four possible outcomes:
TT
TH
HT
HH
>C,C
>C, NC
>NC, C
>NC,NC
>1/4 25%

33%

Possible states

C = Critical Hit
N = Normal Hit

CN
CC
NC
NN

NN is not a valid outcome however, because at least one hit is a crit. That means there's 1 out of 3 ways for you to have dual crits.

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fug nvm im retarded it is 1/3 33% since the position of C, NC, and NC, C are irrelevant.

Yes but the odds of not critting the first hit is still 50 percent. So it'd be:

NN - 50%
CN - 25%
cc - 25%

The guaranteed crit needs to be further elaborated.
You could interpret it in several ways, which change the correct answer
Examples
>It's just a warranty, the first hit has a normal 50/50 chance of critting. Only when it has failed does the guarantee kick in and turn the second hit into a crit
>One of the hits is randomly chosen to be a 100% crit. Effectively meaning there is only one single 50/50 roll

it's 75% since one hit is guaranteed crit and 50% crit chance for the 2nd hit

>it's actually 1/3 if you consider part of the information given irrelevant XDDDDDDDD

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isnt that just 50%?????

meant to write 1/2, my bad

>Because I make ambiguously worded statements everybody is stupid.

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>Yes but the odds of not critting the first hit is still 50 percent. So it'd be:
it's 50% for the second (or first) hit but one is guaranteed critical so 75% for 2 hits

>
what a dumbshit jackass nigger bitch

fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuug it is actually 50%
im a fucking brainlet aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah

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There are only 4 ways for your two attacks to happen.
You get a crit, you get another crit.
You get a crit, you don't get a crit.
You don't get a crit, you do get a crit.
You don't get a crit, you don't get a crit.
So you have a 1/4 chance of getting dual crits, but the last one cannot happen, because you must have at least one crit, so you are only left with 3 possible outcomes.
You can try this yourself with a coin. Just flip it twice, and if you get heads at least once, write it down somewhere. Don't write down any dual tails. You'll get 1/3 of the answers being HH, with 2/3 of the answers being either TH or HT.

>
You don't get a crit, you don't get a crit.
except this outcome is impossible since one hit is guaranteed crit dumbass nigger

>but the last one cannot happen, because you must have at least one crit, so you are only left with 3 possible outcomes.

no

NN is discarded since it doesn't have a crit.

NC and CN have one crit, which is 2/3 of the possibilities.

CC is the target, which is 1/3 of the possibilities that meet the criteria

Well that is your choice user. I don't think it's beneficial for you though.

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i assume ur post to be retarded so it is beneficial to me to skip

The coins analogy doesnt work because you could flip TT. However the question above is flipping TT would be literally impossible, so you wouldn't be able to ignore have of the tail flips.

crit (50%) - 50% of crit, 50% of nocrit

nocrit (50%) - must crit

so as I said,

NC - 50%
CC - 25%
CN - 25%
NN - 0%

50%. One is already a crit. So the probability of the both being crits are the same as a regular chance of a normal hit being a crit. So that's a 50% chance. To he others that's say otherwise, I can see where you are coming from. However, you need to remember that there are only 2 definite answer in this scenario.

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>The coins analogy doesnt work because you could flip TT
Like I said though, do not write down any trials that resulted in TT, and you will get the 1/3 HH, 2/3 HT/TH

>However the question above is flipping TT would be literally impossible, so you wouldn't be able to ignore have of the tail flips.
You don't need TT to be literally impossible to do this test in real life though, you just need to discard all TT results, as they are not relevant in this situation.

You are placing importance on order where there is none. The OP said at least one hit is a crit, not that the first hit is a crit. It does not matter what order your crits are in, just that you have one.

brainlets how could the outcome be the same as a no crit guaranteed one?
it's 75%
take a statistics class

if you dont write down any of the flips that result in TT then you are IGNORING 50% of the initial T flips

>Take a coin
>Flip it
>Write the result down
>Flip it again
>Write the result down
>If the result was TT cross it out
Or just remember what the previous flip was, and never write down TT results.
Order does not matter in this situation. How do you know OP wasn't talking about a 2x hit where each it is simultaneous?
You're assuming order over time when there's no reason to be doing so.

it's 50%. you either double crit or you crit once.

crit crit
crit nocrit
nocrit crit
nocrit no crit

^^^ 4 combinations of the two hits...

with no other info we have a 1/4 (or 25%) chance of cirt crit

however we're given that at least one hit is crti... we therefore know that noncrit nocrit is not possible

so we have a higher chance, given that information, that both hits are crits

namely 1/3 (or 33.3333... %)

Order does matter because when you attack an enemy you hit it sequentially.

wrong.. it's 75% since one hit is crit always, 50% is for the SECOND hit to be crit
(with a 50% chance to crit)

brainlet nigger..
so the chance to double crit in your mind with one guaranteed crit is lower than single crit ?

One is a crit and the other has a 50% chance of being a crit.... Durrr i wonder what the chances are durrrrr

here's a better way to run this experiment,

>take a coin, flip it
>write results down
>If you get TT, reflip the second coin until you get an H, write it down

if you do it this way you'll get 25%

autistic nigger brainlet baka

At least one of the hits is a critical hit, user. Given this, one is guaranteed to happen. Therefore, its a 50/50 chance. Please read the question again.

Thanks for giving me a (you). That made me feel special, user.

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Actually I was wrong. If you assume order matters, then it is 1/3.
If you assume order does not matter, HT and TH are exactly the same state, so the answer would be 1/2.
Both hits are 50%, even if the first was not a crit. But in this fictional situation such a thing would not happen. Or perhaps such results are discarded.
If OP has not said there's a 50% chance of crit, then you would be right.

Here are the only possible outcomes and their probabilities.

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Each hit has a 50% chance of crit. Just because NoCrit NoCrit is invalid does not change the the outcome of each individual hit.

The PROBABILITY of each hit, not outcome.

Thank you user for spelling it out for us

50\$ overall crit chance is the minimum what the fuck are u talking about homie

>Assuming a 50% crit chance
Where did you get minimum from that? It explicitly says there is a 50% chance of crit.
Just because some results are invalid does not mean they are impossible.

This is correct, everyone else here is retarded, and it pains me that people saying the answer is 50% or 75% are calling other people retarded

The only way to have two crits is if the first is a crit (50%) and then the second hit is a crit again (50%) again, so 25%

The guaranteed crit clause only comes into play if the first hit is not a crit, which makes the condition irrelevant to what we are solving for, because it will never come into play in the outcome where you have two crits

Brainlets die or learn basic probability

It specifically asks for the probability of both being crits. We already know one is crit, so we need to know the probability of the other being a crit. Oh look it tells us, 50%. So the answer is 50%

It does mean they are impossible. What makes you think they are not if the OP specifically says one of the two must be a crit. There is a 100% chance that a Crit will happen after a NoCrit

That assumes order doesn't matter.
You can also assume order does matter. OP didn't specify that after all.

>It does mean they are impossible.
It'd actually impossible for TT to be impossible in this situation, because OP specifically said there's a 50% chance of a crit.
That means if you get a non-crit your first time, it MUST be possible for you to get another non-crit, because each hit is an individual trial that has a 50% chance of being a crit.
Your situation ONLY works if the crit chance could change from 50% to 100%, which it can't.
Therefore NoCrit, NoCrit is possible, but invalid.

Ez
Bayes' Theorem bitch. Get fukt.

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You're assuming order matters

No it doesn't, you are just overcomplicating it

Shit ye be right. 33% and 25% are the only possible answers. 50% is just wrong, unless I'm retarded.

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it's 50% because at least 1 hit is guaranteed critical, the follow up is either critical or not critical.

It seems like 1/3 and 1/2 are the two possibilities.
Without order, You can have two states
HH
HT/TH
Same results
Different results

I'm not over complicating it. I'm making the least amount of assumptions. For your 25% result to work, you must assume there's order, then assume that the second trial can change from a 50% chance of crit.
I am assuming order, since you must either assume order or no order. OP specified a 50% chance of crit, so assuming it can change is deviating from the OP's post, "overcomplicating it".

brainlet.

as originally as I can possibly say that.

>Just because some results are invalid does not mean they are impossible.

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Jesus Christ can't you fucks read

you ether get

>>A guaranteed crit and another a crit in any order
>>a guaranteed crit and a normal in any order

it doesn't say which hit is guaranteed!

am i a big brainlet guys

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>The only way to have two crits is if the first is a crit (50%) and then the second hit is a crit again (50%) again, so 25%
imagine being this retarded when the OP spells it out for u

See You can try this yourself with a coin. Or random.org limited to 0 and 1.

>That means if you get a non-crit your first time, it MUST be possible for you to get another non-crit, because each hit is an individual trial that has a 50% chance of being a crit.
you are literally autistic non functional animal

Maths requires you to be autistic and accurate, especially when it comes to probability.
OP specified a 50% chance of crit. You can't just go "well the second one must be 100%", 100% is not 50%.

no, fuck off non functional subhuman

yes but youre a funny big brainlet. thank you for the laugh

Its easily 50%
You hit an enemy two times
The first time is a crit-so 100% of the time this is a crit
The crit chance is 50%
The next hits possibility is 50%
Since one was already a crit then the other has a 50% chance of also being one

that's not math, it's being a retard autist sub-human unable to tie his own shoelaces
one hit is guaranteed crit

>it's 75%
no it definitely isn't

and yes the chance of a double crit is lower than the chance of a single crit given there is at least one

there are two possible answers depending on the phrasing or assumptions 1/4 or 1/3... 0.75 is certainly wrong

50% is not 100% user. I also tie my shoelaces the mathematical way

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>1/4 or 1/3
no.. the correct answers are 50 to 75% depending on the scope brainlet fuck autist booger eater
u are retarded and belong to the worms

This is the only correct answer. Feel free to prove me wrong.

How can there be a 100% crit of the chance of a crit is 50%?

because it's two different crit chances???
go lick the wall some more

based man. I read the question wrong but you're right

If youre answer isnt 50% you are most likely a virgin

There is no 100% crit, there are only 50% crits, as OP said.

33.33%, repeating of course.

You're a double nigger if you fail at this

How do you know the hits happened one after the other? Maybe they were simultaneous.

there is 100% crit on second strikes if first or second wasn't crit..
Jesus Christ..

>there is 100% crit on second strikes if first or second wasn't crit..
No, there is a 50% crit.

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Sci says 1/4

No, because if you read the post, it says
>at least one of them is a crit

Yes. That doesn't change the fact you only have 50% chance crits to work with. Just because you consider NoCrit NoCrit invalid does not mean it was physically impossible.
Imagine writing a program, you only write it to give out 50% crits. It isn't going to magically give you a 100% crit just because your first hit was a crit. It can only do 50% crits.

You can assume that either the first or the second hit was a crit without any problems. Then you only have to worry about one hit. So, the problem is, you hit once, and there is a 50% chance it crits. whats the probability that you landed a crit?

50% retards

at least one of the hits is a crit is a rule, so only 3 outcomes possible. 1/3

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Isn't NC and CN effectively the same though? why include both options

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Yeah, I was assuming order. If you assume order doesn't matter it's 1/2

Changing to 50%. NC-NC isn't an option and 50% crit chance doesn't apply to the guaranteed crit
so its either the first hit or the second hit that has the 50%, which doesn't matter. Now it's a 50/50 chance we get a crit or no crit

op was a faggot and didnt specify, so all we can do is guess

guessing 50%. at least one is guaranteed 100%, other is 50/50.

I can tell you it's a shit game. 50 fucking percent? There's nothing special about getting a crit.

The first hit ha nothing to do with the second hit. A 50% chance will always be 50%. The second hit does not know or care that the first hit was critical, they are separate occurrences and both have a 50% chance