Is technology really improving exponentially or is that just a pop-sci meme?

Even if the progress slows, it's still exponential. It's a discreet process where time between technological leaps varies.

Depends on how you look at it.
Technology is definitely being improved but not in the way you'd expect as what has been improving is integration and data gathering over performance and usability.

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If we follow Stuart Mill's theory, we are lossing the freedom that make societies progress

>I don't know who Isaac Asimov is

Its improving exponentially. You just don't see it, but you benefit greatly from it. Human memory is not reliable.

proof?

Technology isn't uniform. Most technologies follow pic related.

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the big bastard himself, our future prime minister

he's the real guy, the best guy

>muh robutts
>muh space colonialism
Not happening cletus.

Maybe 15-20 years ago. But now you can buy a phone from 2013 and pretty much have the same shit. Same goes for laptops and especially desktops. So no, nothing is really improving. It's stagnating because of the limitations of silicon as a material for building micro computers.

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And yet newer processors from both teams are coming out with 8/12/32 cores

This. Unless you're keeping up just to keep up
>muh resolution
>muh ray tracing
>muh thin and light as a wafer
The tech plateau is real. A decade old desktop and a virtually free smartphone from your local ghetto wireless company or wally world is able to do anything everyone else does with a brand new flagship. Grab a $20 battey pack and you will even outlast them at less than 1% of the cost.

forget about technology improving, there are good arguments for progress itself being a myth
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progress

I don't think the average person is going to notice/care as much, but if you're really into this stuff, you'll be able to get excited about, and think of the possibilities. Stuff like RISC-V is just gonna make a normie complain about software compatibility, video games, that their current stuff "just works", etc.

There will be another explosion in growth once quantum computing takes off. Most software will be designed around machine learning & CNN.

Based sips poster

if you're old enough think about how long it took to load a single lil Kim booty pic. ages is what it took. now you can download full videos of BBW's twerking in moments

go actually research quantum computing brainlet. Its not a replacement to the transistor, but rather a supplement to it. there's plenty of facets of linear computing that a quantum computer would be significantly worse at, and vice versa. Expect some sort of quantum card that can be added to the system, similar to the way graphics cards are added now.

>Its not a replacement to the transistor,
I didn't say it was a replacement. I'm saying we'll see significant benefits in areas where using quantum computing excels at obviously, especially when its utilized in the consumer market.

Technological progress in the last ten years:
Phones got a bit thinner
People started strapping screens to their face

how would a quantum card even work? dont you have to keep that shit at 0 kelvin or something my nigga?

Sadly /thread. We're doomed

Material sciences have stagnated. We're waiting for something better than plastic. Carbon fiber has not been adopted en masse.

Battery technology also needs to improve for major changes to common appliances. Graphene supercapacitors look promising, and it's been shown they can be made with hemp waste fibers.

GPU power increased enabling 4k gaming and stable VR on medium tier gaming rigs.

It may seem small, but before you'd need a $4k setup for that stuff.

Today we're seeing similar things with ray tracing and graphics in general. You need a workstation to get pic-related tier graphics in real time. In a few years you won't and it'll be the norm to see stuff like this in-game

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So never. Not to mention everything is based on binary bits so the transition if it ever does stop becoming a meme is going to be brutal. Most developers choose profit over innovation anyway and the others are just too lazy especially when they are just python scripters

Nah all you need are better apis like vulkan to cut the cpu overhead compiling to machine for the gpu. Not to mention graphics cost too much so you won't get any game play hence the shitty state of gaming

>stop becoming a meme
so tired of reading this. it's like everything new is considered a meme and disregarded. that phrase is a meme in itself. shit is still in its infancy. give it time you impatient cuck.

Ahh yes, Assimov. Among his predictions:
>we'll be on Mars in 1994
>cold fusion by 2002
>human clones by 2004
>computer-generated DNA resurrecting extinct animals (dinosaurs were given as an example) by 2010
>space drives by 2020
>neural interfaces by 2000
>(H/T ) robots everywhere doing everything by 2010
Chuck in that he was a pedo, and you've got someone who really shouldn't be considered an authority on anything.

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but what about looting?

>our
>prime minister
the hell is a prime minister, US equivalent of a president?

At least he tried.

>>human clones by 2004
Considering how normos are basically clones nowadays, it only took 14 years longer than predicted.

>all these normies saying no because muh gaymz and personal pcs
Kill yourselves you pathetic cunts

>Chuck in that he was a pedo
there's literally nothing wrong with this

Correct.

>What is materials science
>Implying silicon is the theoretical be-all and end-all material for computing
>Implying something better isn't waiting to be created / discovered right around the corner
Yeah, we sure are going to remain stagnant for the next 100 years, don't bother getting into any new tech from now on, the job is done.

The plateau is real but temporary. Like said, tech plateaus until something new comes along and leads to exponential advancement once more.

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Its really not advancing very fast anymore.

Most of the recent advancements are very slow because major corporations hold all the cards and will buy out anyone that has even an inkling of an original idea

>Progress is a myth
>Literally links to a wikipedia article
>"Good arguments"

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Of all the potential causes for the slowdown, you went with a politically charged
>muh corporations
Really? Fuck off to Reddit where you belong.

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You're the brainlet- it's well known major tech companies (like Facebook, Amazon and Google) maintain a 'killzone' and shut down any startups that threaten them

Wikipedia is almost always right

daily reminder that Moore's law is dead

We could have all of this shit today if we were not preoccupied with cataloguing an infinite number of human genders and declaring mathematics to be racist.

this

here's what the future will really look like

>climate change ruins global stability, creates millions of uncontrolled refugees and causes millions of deaths
>resource scarcity brings living standards down worldwide
>gradual slide of western democracies into authoritarianism/Fascism as a result of these pressures
>multi-polar world emerges, giving despotisms like China power close to or maybe even greater than USA
>possibility of USA/western order collapsing USSR style in general
>gradual destabilisation of the situation leads to more conflicts, and implicitly more risk of great power conflicts
>omnipresent threat of terrorism
>if we're REALLY unlucky, nuclear warheads used again in combat, leading to Threads
Literally what is there to be optimistic about?

I think we have a couple of decades before things get really bad, but over the past few years it's become impossible to pretend we aren't facing crises everywhere.

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I don't know man, all I see is a bunch of contrarian pseuds in denial.

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Scale. There is a limit how tiny things like gates, resistors can be.
So that means tech need to grow bigger. Larger, thicker and more energy hungry.
Phones turn back into bricks, laptops become desktops, desktops become servers.
All become far more pricey, costly, and power requirements go up with them all.
All along with this less sales, less programs, less interest and that's just on the computer side.
As the demand to push hardware goes up the demand for software programmers drops with the demand for software.
It goes back to the few with government jobs doing what government does best, stagnate.
The other tech advance falls into disarray as the need for power prevents further development into robotics and AI.
It ends up like railroads, airports and back room government data collecting dust.
When only government have the AI, only government will use the AI to do taxes and data mining polls.
The network will be more centralized and dependent on upgrades until even those centers of infinite money move on to other more political expedient departments.
It all will be seen as the rust belt is now seen.
Tech needs things that tech cant reach because of the motes placed to protect business interests.

I really miss old Sips.

>ywn be in high school watching Sips and Skin build a factory

Why live

Governments still use floppy disks.
You don't seem to understand what bureaucratic entrenchment does to technology.
Silicon is the paper, the world uses to write its texts.
What happens to all the silicon data?
Will your next material even use the same software much less hardware.
What is the cost to those who invested in silicon to make the change over to this new material?
Do you really think those who profit most from silicon try and keep it as a medium to protect their interests.
Banks, governments, and industry are all invested heavily into silicon.
Any change out if silicon would have impacts globally.
Just look at ultra ultraviolet as an example of how long something can take to reach market.
Cars were being built with iron block engines until aluminum manufacturing was in place.
You just don't add a new material to a product because it's better you add it when it no longer competes with your old business.
Your new materials may be to costly to manufacture or they just might compete with an existing product.
Either way don't hold your breath.

"progress is a myth" is a provocative statement but like any human defined concept it's interesting to think about how we define progress. it's been discussed since recorded history sorry if that's too "cultural marxism" for you

the real problem with "moar coars" is that very few programs actually take advantage of that, most o the time the load is all on 1 core and never gets distributed evenly, thus negating any real advantages to having multiple cores for parallel processing.

Mostly a meme, there are some areas where it is improving signifigantly, just look at what MIT is doing.

For the most part though most "technology" (specifically the consumer type) has remained stagnant because of monopolization.

Is there really anywhere to go now that we have 4K pornography?

We will all die with our penises in our hands.

did you even try to read that wiki?
the concept of eternal return is at least as old as ancient greece it was the dominant way of looking at progress
the idea of progress "marching forward" in a more or less linear way is a relatively recent western concept. It's a fundamental assumption we take it for granted as the way the world works.

>the idea of progress "marching forward" in a more or less linear way is a relatively recent western concept.
what justification is there for this? is there any metaphysical reason why we couldn't accidentally start a nuclear war and destroy humanity?

I've never understood how the belief in 'progress' is justified

t. humanities cretin

it's just a blindly rose tinted view of technology
the last 300 years saw invention/industrialization on a scale that makes it easy to fit a "miracle of exceptional progress" narrative
without a doubt it's the dominant way most westerners see technology/progress today. I don't think it's that controversial to say that the fall of traditional religion and the rise of scientism isn't a coincidence
These are obviously complex sociological ideas but most people would laugh in your face if you tried to argue against science/technology as progress. If you told people 2000 years ago most humans believed progress was cyclical they would just say well they were dumb which says a lot about how important these ideas are in modern society.

Yup, everyone in the know already knows this. It's better to leave the plebs to their ignorance and let them enjoy the last few "good" decades before decline becomes outright collapse.

>he doesn't have a LH cooling loop

Another thing the believers in the god of progress and technology can't seem to fathom is that a technological regression is still wholly within the realm of possibility, and even probable. It has happened many times in the past when a human society overshoots their carrying capacity or depletes a critical resource. Technological regression goes hand in hand with collapse.

>exponentially
I dont even know who the fuck says that
Maybe kurzweil but hes a dumbass

>>human clones by 2004
there are human clones but they're not telling you about it

Oh definitely not. But it is slow enough that you don't actually observe it, you need to compile a spreadsheet over the last few decades to see it.

Speaking of transistors. Vacuum tubes can be made into the same form factor, using the same manufacturing process and materials. Funny feature, at that size electrons have greater mean free flight span in the air than the size of the tube, so you don't even need an actual vacuum - if only to reduce heat output. Which is small because at that scale electrons just fly right out of the anode, no heating required. Needless to say, the tubes switch almost instantly and frequencies in dozens of gigahertz can be achieved easily.

The problem with using those is the same problem as with using graphene: it's a new technology and therefore is a risk, and big companies are extremely risk averse. They will not consider switching from fets to tubes until they hit a brick wall with it.

you tell me

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this, it's an insane belief and one of the main reasons the collapse will be so brutal

how fucking hard was it just to have some self-control. we could've avoided so much of this bullshit.

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>how fucking hard is it to have some self control
No borders. No nations. No deportations.

Holy shit this chart is so stupid. Some of the technologies were over a decade old in 2012 already. Also the non sequitur out the ass, as if current technology is a stepping stone to bs sci-fi technologies. Like spectacles displays, it's not an issue of making a small display, it's an issue of focusing something half an inch in front of your eye. You can make a reflector type spectacles but they're bulky and defeat the purpose of using this form factor over a classics face brick one. Or you can put focusing apparatus between the screen and the eyes, unfocusing outside light in the process, also defeating the purpose (unless it was too make sunglasses vr hmd).

>interplanetary internet
????

How else would you shitpost on Twitter from a Mars colony?

>childless retards who believe they will become immortal anime girls
sometimes we believe what we find to be most beautiful. our hearts are philosophical, underneath it all

Yea, but by 2025? That's extremely optimistic.

>gradual slide of western democracies into authoritarianism/Fascism as a result of these pressures
holy fuck you're lame. so much cnn dude, seriously

ok I'll bite
why do you think I'm wrong?

Real advancement is often invisible and you enter it without noticing.
It's buried under a pile of overhyped crap, celebrities and politics.

this
compare five year periods and they seem very similar to each other
compare 30 or even 20 year periods and everything starts to click

>who believe they will become immortal anime girls
I don't believe, but I hope.

only way to watch him now is either on twitch, or watching hours of unedited footage on the sips live channel, feels bad man

it's such a canned idea is all. one that you see idiots use to make themselves sound smart and one that provides self justification for "knowing history"

if you can't see symptoms of the USA/west in general sliding towards Fascism you're clinically retarded

sorry for hurting your fee fees you thin-skinned Jow Forumsyp

no. you've just demonstrated your childishness. if you want to be stupid then you're free to be stupid

I dunno. Look at a cell phone from 10 years ago and tell me.

Even if there were somehow a more technologically active period of time (golden age of algebra and physics as an example) the knowledge would take decades if not centuries to reach the world.

Now all you have to do is shitpost here to have the world aware of your brilliance.

Have you ever read the Jow Forums sticky?

You might want to before you start throwing those accusations around.

Fuck off subhumans

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>nigger
Sorry, I'm not low IQ pleb. I downloaded hentai jpg on my floppies and printed them on local libraries for later fap

>Reputation economy
Fuck that, that sounds like what china is doing with their social credit system.

We're beginning to reach the limit of our growth without major changes to society. There's no such thing as infinite growth, because there's no such thing as infinite resources. Meanwhile, the world is currently dominated by Capitalism, and Capitalism only works on continuous growth. Obviously, there's a disconnect here. We might be able to push it another century, but eventually we're going to have to face the elephant in the room. The only way Capitalism can actually work is if we can develop warp technology and exploit the vast resource reserves of outer space (like EVE Online).

Here are some issues:
-We're wasting vital resources on stupid shit (Helium, for example, is non-renewable; we sell it for next to nothing so people can fill party balloons and it escapes into space afterward)
-A lot of resources are beginning to become scarce
-A lot of the stuff we make is pointless and goes to waste without ever being used, destroyed by companies to "protect their brand"
-We throw away roughly 30-40% of the food we produce globally due to various stupid reasons
-Our recycling programs are abysmal, no one actually cares, half the companies just ship their shit to China so it can sit in piles and get scavenged by poor people
-We're cutting down the rainforests that help regulate global climate and oxygen production (we're gonna waste SO many years and resources making new rainforests in the future)
-Whole regions are becoming arid due to climate change and uncontrolled ground water use, while we waste it on stupid things like washing cars and attempting to grow grass in the desert; no one bothers building desalination plants and pipelines to irrigate dry regions because it's not profitable
-Huge swathes of population are wasting government resources languishing in prisons, because they were poor or because in relation to marijuana (a plant that makes people hungry and silly and helps cancer patients cope with pain); they make little to no contribution to society

The main reason our progress is stalling is because of energy. In the 1900s, by using just a small amount of energy, we could extract vast amounts of fossil fuels. Oil was sitting right there near the surface, hell, it sprayed out of the fucking ground as soon as we dug into it! We need more? Not a problem. There's plenty of that shit, just dig some more oil wells.

Now, we're in a situation where we need to spend more energy, to obtain less energy than before. Oil needs to be pumped from deep underground or from deep underwater, and we are being forced to use less of it because it's destroying the climate. Solar and Wind power are great, for sure, but compared with fossil fuels, the ratio of the energy we get out of them, compared to what we put into it, is much lower. This has a hidden effect on the economy, and the pressure on the economy is putting pressure on the political system; nobody can solve the problem, parties point fingers at each other, and the populace is getting frustrated.

Tomorrow is a mystery user

good times and their lego talk

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So this...is the power...of Jow Forums
woah

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Fuck, except it was college for me.
They were so bad at that game holy shit. Comfy though