Programming automation

Is this gonna be a real thing?
What other tech career is safe from it?

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The only jobs that are safe from automation right now are low skill, low wage, menial jobs like being a janitor. They'll get replaced when janitorial robots with a generalized AI happen though.
People who ear a lot and do things like write TPS reports and program something a software engineer designed will be the first to go when automation happens.
Remember when "computers" used to refer to people who were highly skilled at math? Their education didn't save them, so why would it save anyone as automation goes on?

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>Remember when "computers" used to refer to people who were highly skilled at math?
Are you saying that performing basic arithmetic is somehow highly skilled labor? The people who were computers took a set of instructions made by the people who were highly skilled and did the easy part. They were made obsolete once we had decent calculators.

It already begun in the 70's.
Compilers are basically ASM automation.

>Are you saying that performing basic arithmetic is somehow highly skilled labor?
At a high speed and accuracy? When the most they MAY have had is adding machines? Yes, that's highly skilled. It also helps the more they do it the better they get at arithmetic. You act like arithmetic is some pre-school branch of mathematics that has no interesting properties to explore.

>The people who were computers took a set of instructions made by the people who were highly skilled and did the easy part.
So the exact same relationship programmers have to software engineers. Or anything under middle management for that matter.

>They were made obsolete once we had decent calculators.
Yes, that's called automation. There is AI that can write news articles as well as or better than humans. There are likely AI right now that can write 90% of the office emails/papers that humans are working on right now. White collar jobs will be the first to go as they're the most expensive and are largely already in the realm of automation.
Good luck making a robot that can climb a ladder and fix some arbitrary issue with an HVAC unit.

MS Flow and its Powerapp suite is going to put entire floors of devs out of jobs.
I can't wait, they're all cunts.

> Is this gonna be a real thing?

None of us are psychic but a lot of people are pouring a lot of work into progressing automated programming synthesis on several fronts. The problem is being approached from the top by improved automated theorem proving technology that can handle more complex program synthesis tasks, and from the bottom by more advanced compiler technology and more succinct, expressive and high-level programming languages which are easier for the automated theorem provers to reason about. Barring a world war I expect that these two front will eventually join at a common point where the theorem provers are just about clever enough to deal with the programming languages that are just about high-level enough. At that point the whole software engineering industry will simply dissolve as programmers are replaced by what is equivalent to today's MS Excel power users - i.e. people who are very good at coming up with declarative descriptions of problem domains.

A computer's job was to essentially fill out mathematical tables according to some function. For example, some mathematician would derive some equation for the trajectory of a rocket given wind conditions, angle, velocity, etc and the computer's job was to plug in all the variables and record the output. Most all computers were only high school graduates. It was low skill labor and there is a reason they were completely replaced by a big dumb box that couldn't do anything but basic arithmetic. Except the box could do it faster and without as many errors.

Artificial intelligence as it stands is just statistics. We use observations from data to draw conclusions about future data. The advancements in AI seen in recent years was mostly due to the availability of massive data sets thanks to the internet.

High school educated in a time where a significant amount of people didn't even make it to high school. Just because the maths they were doing is stuff we teach children doesn't mean they were brainlets who barely understood what they're doing.

>It was low skill labor and there is a reason they were completely replaced by a big dumb box that couldn't do anything but basic arithmetic.
That's completely false. Computers as a profession existed even into the 1950s (and likely even the 1960s). The people who were using those "big dumb boxes that couldn't do anything but basic arithmetic" were the computers themselves. It's not as if an engineer was going to do thousands of calculations himself just because he had an adding machine.

>Except the box could do it faster and without as many errors.
A single adding machine would not compete with hundreds of people. You would have needed an electronic computer for that, back in a time where they were still experimental vacuum tube research/military technology like the ENIAC.

>Artificial intelligence as it stands is just statistics. We use observations from data to draw conclusions about future data. The advancements in AI seen in recent years was mostly due to the availability of massive data sets thanks to the internet.
There have been plenty of huge strides such as deep learning and reinforcement training which have greatly improved the speed, efficiency, and accuracy of AI without requiring a proportional increase in the data sets used to train them.
You are right though, AI is just a math trick. However there are people working on "synthetic intelligence", which ideally would naturally give rise to intelligence in the same way it does for organisms with a brain. Who knows how far that is off.

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That's a very shitty tracing off of that one scene in Kareshi Kanojo No Jijou.