How is the slow Wall Street bleed-out treating you?
I have done a few AMAs here before. I trade oil futures in Chicago.
It's my day off; feel free to ask me anything about futures or options or whatever.
My opinion is that bitcoin is going to triple digits, so feel free to stop reading here if you're only into crypto.
Nobody cares what you think.
fuck your mother if you want fuck
Do you use a trading system? If you do what is it? Also do you use signals like Dow theory to identify changes in long term market trends?
Is TA a meme?
No I don't use a trading system in the same way that some people try to create a sort of algorithm for the way they fulfill orders and trades without a program.
That being said there are definitely signals that I look for. To indicate a potential reversal for example, I would look for a period of trending with low comparative volume and then a sudden doubling or so of volume would probably indicate a reversal candle is coming.
Yes people all think about dow theory, but take it with a grain of salt because its a little outdated. For example: stops are often run on purpose to get better fills on big orders; therefore setting typical stop losses at big numbers like $100 a share can make you a target.
Yes and no.
There's nobody out there saying that anything has to be priced fairly so trying to be purely logical about fundamentals won't get you nearly as far as one would hope.
On the other hand, nearly every trend can be interpreted incorrectly if you have no idea what the general fundamental situation is. Oversold in a recession collapse is a term that doesn't exist.
youtube.com
Listen to this British guy explain, he has a bunch of good videos that I would highly recommend- they aren't too long.
Favorite books?
Should I start reducing my vanguard investments? I currently do $100/week into my roth and $200/week into my regular account.
whats your take on US equities? I am seeing some signals that are telling me to get out.
It really doesn't matter what initial book you read for TA- just get one off amazon because everyone knows the same basics about bull flags/bear flags volume etc.
"The logical trader" is very popular.
I'm going to read Demarks book this weekend because one of my colleagues was talking about it.
There are many many systems of trading that people publish and I try to read two a year, not to use them, but to take a few tidbits- like you should do. In the end, if somebody genuinely had the best system they wouldn't publish it, they would retire.
Flash boys is good not for learning how to trade, but learning what a lot of these HFT traders are actually capable of and how they don't generally do a lot of what people say they do.
So are you applying the same method/program for trading oil futures to trade btc futures or btc itself
I believe it will be very volatile in the next year or so. I do not believe the 200 daily moving average will break before retesting highs.
I would max out your roth account first for tax purposes.
Why do you think Bitcoin will go to triple digits?
Oil is a lot more difficult to manage because there are so many reports that come out that act like earnings reports, at least 1.5 a week.
Generally though, bitcoin acts the same as any stock or asset.
For example, large increases in volume towards points of support indicates both the presence of people selling (obviously) but also that of new buyers entering the market. This implies a potential reversal.
When assets are trending its generally on low volume as everyone is buying.
In this way volume can be predictive.
Are you gonna be bullish on Oil during the Middle East crisis?
Do you use any pricing models? I.e black schoels. And do you trade for a major bank/small firm or just your on account?
Read some cool paper on how the first rise to $1000 was from one guy using two programs to pump up the price. He got out at 1k and thats why it crashed that first time.
I exchanges through order spoofing likely created the last rally through a number of ways like order spoofing and creation of tether. I read another paper that had a good argument for the idea that tether was just being printed to prop up markets- one of their arguments being the arbitrary 100-300 million blocks.
The exchange- coinbase i think? Got subpoenaed for proof of funds backing tether and I think they just started printing tether in other currencies as well. What this means is that its likely they will try to print in separate currencies and convert it to show that they have something like 2billion usd and then keep the scam going across a few countries as it takes forever for bureaucracy to catch up. Let me know if this part of my explanation doesn't make sense.
Basically, if you go back to before the artificial pump its around 400usd.
Oh and then theres the fact that the mgtox bitcoin will probably be dispersed to the plaintifs who got their coins stolen years ago.That means there's like 160k of bitcoin that could flood the market in a short period of time in a few months/year whatever.
I meant in general, not about TA. I'm already well aboard the "TA is useless train outside of high volume/HFT" train
I'm bullish on oil in general- people are hoping global demand will continue being strong and if the dollar keeps falling- which i think it will- then the US will continue exporting quite a lot. This is better for WTI than Brent.
Goldman sachs say their average target for this year is 82. My upper target is 90. Sounds completely insane I know, but it still depends on fundamentals going forwards and may end up happening next year if shale has a massive surprise increase in production
What's your opinion in the other coins from the top 10? Not all alts are going down.
C h e c k e d
Also,
>Petroyuan
China is trading oil futures against the yuan. Is the dollar doomed?
Why would shale production increase? My understanding was that operations were strong squeezed for years by low prices. I'm a layperson, though.
Yes they are. Think of bitcoin as the S&P500 and altcoins as individual stocks. In a recession assets do not gain value.
I'm reading Jordan Peterson's book right now, if he doesn't get into something about how I should risk marrying some chick for the good of society I think it will be good- interesting so far.
12 Rules for Life? I'll check it out
>reading self-help books for loners
And you somehow think you're valuable enough to make AMAs?
EOS is holding up like a boss after jumping from 9th to 6th, and SKY is +40% in the last week. Get the fuck outta here.
Hey thanks for bullshiting with us and not being a waste of time. There is a new study on mit about bitcoin pricing and network theory at mittechnoloyreview com. Nice study they put out. MS
He's an "oil" "investment" "expert" here not a socialite
They were, but to OPECs horror many of the ones that survived became hugely more efficient in break even price point and time to set up new wells- at around a week or two now for new ones. There's still a lot of debt wrapped up around shale companies, but production in the past year has already risen faster than it did during the last shale boom.
So yeah oil might hit 90, but my god will it crash again if global demand isn't incredibly strong.
How does pro trading differ from what crypto people do (meme graphs, gambling)?
How do you think the Saudi Aramco IPO will effect oil going forward?
Did your wife stop whoring herself?
Can you post the actual link? That didn't give me anything.
With smaller funds I doubt it differs that much except in terms of experience. There aren't that many potential price action patterns that can happen so with enough chart time it becomes pretty easy and sometimes arbitrary.
Quants and programmers- which I'm not- especially at larger funds make it much more complicated. They have models that include their risk/profit parameters as a way to create market targets which I think is the main difference between them and those who don't make markets.
Think of it like for big firms they trade the graph that is their portfolio value. It's like a first derivative. The second derivative is the spot price of the asset that other people try to use to interpret the first derivative with but aren't really aware that's what they're doing- if that makes sense?
You think 88energy really found a shitload of oil in Alaska or is it a desperate play by a brankrupting company to stem the hemorrhaging?
Like imagine if you got to see the graph of the portfolio value of the biggest player who trades bitcoin. Imagine you saw a pretty obvious pattern that showed that person sold every 10million in profit- that person makes the market do whatever he wanted. That's how that person trades, by looking at the chart of their value.
You only get to see the spot price value though that's an attempt to interpret what that guys chart is doing or will want to do.
Suddenly those random 9326 random tops would make more sense.
That's why markets tend to move in measurable repeated ranges.
Thanks for the info on shale, wondered why North Dakota hadn't Mad Max'd yet and now I know.
Yeah I'd be worried about slackening demand if I were you, we're running out of continents to rapidly industrialize and mature economies are throwing fistfuls of money to get out of fossil fuels even when technologies are just maturing
I have no idea.
I don't think anyone knows for sure. I bet people will buy into it in a warren buffet way- for the secure cash flow and barriers to entry.
Maybe if westerners run the board of directors they will produce much less because they would rather get $150 a barrel on a finite resource rather than $90 but sell more every year to fund government programs etc.
I kind of doubt the arabs would relinquish control though so really... possible nothing would change.
I secretly hope people buy into it and realize all the oil is gone.
Yes, peak oil demand is supposed be be around the next 15 years. Its apparent to nearly everyone now that we will never run out of oil before we run out of uses for oil in favor of other energy sources.
Go figure. Makes me doubt climate change because everyone was so sure about running out of oil growing up.
>Makes me doubt climate change because everyone was so sure about running out of oil growing up.
Hey, I guess this proves that people are stupid outside their specialization. We just got done talking about how people 40-50 years ago started worrying about running out of oil, then spent those decades investing in speculative alternatives to fossil fuels which are only now maturing, and hav discovered new sources of oil like (shale, oil sand, lng, newly discovered fields) in the same time frame... and global warming is fake is because we didn't run out of oil?
Yeah this line in particular made me question the credibility of OP.
But I guess you need a bit of cognitive dissonance about climate change and the effect of fossil fuel consumption if your entire livelihood is based around trading it.
i want to get into trading but dont really know where to start? could you point me in the correct direction? books or basic info
>he thinks coinbase prints tether
phew, I was starting to think he actually knew something
How can you call yourself an oil trader and ignore the only question about china threatening to overtake markets through bypassing of us sanctions and literally bankrupt the dollar? You're a fucking fraud m8
Yeah except nobody wants the yuan and so countries like russia are just using the yuan to buy other currencies.
The US market is such a good place for investment right now that the euro dollar ratio wont become worse than 1.4. I think you don't understand that whole countries have a large % of their investments in our markets and will continue to do so as china slows
Doesn't it? I know its one of the brokers
Here is the link for that MIT bitcoin price study technologyreview.com
I would suggest the new market wizards by jack schwager as a good starting point for understanding the different trading mentalities. It’s a bit older but the fundamentals of trading psychology and an introduction to systems trading are invaluable. A second good book is from the 80s but it is about econometrics and a foundational book that is overlooked - stock market logic by Norman Fosback. The last book is about bubbles written by Yale and nobel prize winner in economics Robert Schiller - irrational exuberance. I prefer audio books but these are three very good books. MS
>Nobody wants the yuan
You absolute brainlet you. The reason nobody wants the yuan is exactly because of its low liquidity. A strong gold-backed oil market literally solves that problem and countries can finally stop buying into spiraling US debt. Wars were waged to nations that tried to defy the petrodollar, but this time China is steering the boat and the BRICS seem to be very much onboard. Every outlet worth its salt is on reporting how this could be the biggest change in financial markets in the history of ever and you're dismissing it out of pure disinformation and low iq. Surely to be expected of a dude that says bitcoin is going back to $100.
Move along everyone, this guy is a boomer brainlet. He's too old and his brain is incapable of iterating scenarios in a reality any different from his own.
This is interesting. Basically says fair bitcoin price is currently 1300-2600.
I wouldn't be that surprised to see a bottom around either of those. However, in my experience trends go on longer than people ever believe they will. The important point in any case is to identify this sort of price potentiality and look for reversal signals around them. It really doesn't matter too much which one it is for trading.
thank you.
Hi. I trade Chicago futures in oil. I think bitcoin is going to six figures. Feel free to stop reading if you are only invested in stocks.
We can talk stocks or bonds if you want to. I think the debt market is going to get interesting soon with fed probably increasing interest rates this year and stocks getting hit with the effects of QE coming to an end again around the globe.
i don't think he's british, he has a dutch or afrikaan tilt to his accent.
tl;dr for the video btw - price action is important (patterns, levels, volatility etc), lagging indicators are not.
Here is the in depth report it’s about 20 pages but it provides much more details about the network theory predicting price if you’re curious arxiv.org
Hello, I trade futures on LNG in NYC. I think Bitcoin is going to eight figures, so please stop reading.
lmao lol fuck oil, what a faggot