Logic behind 'whales dumping' meme?

for some reason i unironically believe this

>you're wrong, once we go under 6k (which should happen on our next break down, that will only happen after we go past 7,700 and trap all longs) you'll see a huge influx of desperate ppl capitulating
We've already been below 6K. Why would going below 6K again cause people to capitulate when they didn't already capitulate at 12K, 11K, 10K, 9K, 8K, 7K or 6K?

>when they exit, all fishies tho bought at higher price are eated
Only if those fishies panic and sell. If they didn't panic and sell on the way down from 20K to 5.8K, why would they do it now?

So can nobody explain why a whale would wish to push BTC price down to 4K or 3K?
What's in it for them if they did manage to push the price this low? How would they benefit from it?

I didnt read the thread so sorry if this has been said, but they are just taking profits.
>be a whale
>sell 10% of your stack at 7,100 BTC pushing price down to 7,000
>panic sellers push down to 6,800
>buy your stack back and keep the difference as pure profit or buy your stack back + free coins

Whales profit and gain more coins everyday. They arent looking at their bitcoin as 'all their money'. Its just something they play around with to extract cash and stack more.

Buy it when it goes under 6k then lol

>panic sellers push down to 6,800
Why would they panic sell now at 7K when they didn't already panic sell on the way down from 20K to 5.8K?

firewall at 6k. the bears capitulated.

>If you didn't sell on the way down from 20K
almost nobody bought btc at 20k

fishies do NOT have the ability to prop up the price
the only way NOT to get owned by the whales is to panic sell

You would have totally missed the last plunge to 6k if you were away from your computer for a couple days, it's been bouncing around 8-12k otherwise until the last week, so if you bought at ATH you'd only be stomaching a 50%ish loss most days. There's a lot of capitulation to go if resolve is really tested as it goes down below the previous low without immediately bouncing and panic has time to set in. There probably isn't a 100% sell off at any point but every time there's a substantial drop more hands will lose their grip, along with those wanting to get in at a lower price.

Look at the volume charts. Volume was massive around the peak in December-January. There were a lot of buyers.

How does panic selling prevent someone from getting owned by whales?

We must not be looking at the same charts

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>You would have totally missed the last plunge to 6k if you were away from your computer
I highly doubt many people with a significant crypto investment would have been 'away from their computer' and unable to sell during the drop to 5.8K. Anyone who didn't make any effort to check the price or panic sell during that drop clearly isn't particularly concerned about huge drops in value, and isn't going to suddenly panic next time it drops.

Like I said at the beginning, anyone still holding today after a drop from 20K to 5.8K has pretty strong hands, and if the whales think they can make these people panic sell en-masse by dumping the price, then I suspect they're going to be disappointed.

Your question implies that whales were/are the main reason for the next drop. If you consider Tether and Bitfenix Whales then when those exit scams take 5B with them out of the market we will see the true "bottom".

I honestly would love to enter the crypto space but while bitcoin is above 2-3k I simply cant. I seriously believe that Tether and Bitfenix are the only things slowing the "return to normal". The sooner they die, and the sooner Bitcoin hits 2-3k, Eth $150-200, Ripple 0.25 cents and a total bloodlbath on these shitcoins and ICOs the crypto space can get back to normal.

Also these billion dollar market cap valuations, I mean get a grip on reality - fuck, yes im mad.

damn if this is what the nocoiner noobs think then i guess 6k really is the bottom

>I highly doubt many people with a significant crypto investment would have been 'away from their computer'
The capitulation happened incredibly fast. 6k never broke on Bitfinex and only broke on other exchanges for an hour at most. It was under 7k for about 12 hours. It's completely possible to have missed sub-7k prices.

Again, virtually no one bought BTC at 20k.

>create stagnant market
>shill Bitmex to the max (a while ago you couldn't go on Jow Forums without constant Bitmex shilling)
>desperate people who lost a lot of money get on Bitmex to recover losses (as the stagnant market takes too long for notoriously impatient crypto buyers)
>TA superstars on Twitter shill whatever you tell them to for money
>check number of longs/shorts, also buy inside info from Bitmex on large positions etc
Let's say shorts are dominant and all the TA people are calling the end of Bitcoin as instructed
>load up on long positions on Bitmex
>start buying a shitload of BTC very quickly
>Bart begins
>short positions get blown the fuck out and have to market buy BTC, greatly amplifying your pump (the quickness of the pump is to bypass stop losses on Bitmex)
>close longs, profit
>slowly sell BTC, buy back more on the small dips etc (this is Bart's hair)
>once everyone thinks BTC is back, load up on shorts
>dump all the BTC you have, blowing long positions the fuck out
>Bart complete
>buy back cheap coins
Rinse and repeat as long as there are desperate gamblers left on Bitmex.

FYI, exchanges are completely dead on real, organic volume right now. Everyone who wanted to sell has sold, and the hodltards are gonna ride this bitch to 0 at this point.

The name of the game is 100% Bitmex and sniping leveraged positions, that's why the only movement now is Bart

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People want to make sense of a nonsensical market so they attach price to reasons
>muh news fud
>muh Soros
>muh whales
>muh regulation
>muh cartels
>muh tea leaves

what about regulation coming in july? how will that effect traders?

bitcoin was designed to be resileint against governments but they are cooking the frog slowly so that people can't be arsed into subverting the regulations.. could that be bad for traders?

also why aren't you trading now??? you can still make money during the time before the great tethering?

>8818408
you dont think bitfinex and tether will fail?

>If you consider Tether and Bitfenix Whales then when those exit scams take 5B with them out of the market we will see the true "bottom".
What if Tether doesn't "exit scam"? I unironically believe Tether is 100% backed by fiat as they claim to be, or at least close enough to 100% that it doesn't matter. The exchanges make so much money there's no reason for them not to be properly backed. There won't be a Tether exit scam, and in fact we're seeing more 'stable currencies' like Tether enter the market.

>Also these billion dollar market cap valuations, I mean get a grip on reality - fuck, yes im mad.
The billion dollar market cap doesn't mean anything - it's just the coin price X circulating supply. Only a fraction of that market cap is actual dollars invested in the market. The amount of real money invested is still very low compared to all other asset classes.

It recovered fairly quickly, if it had gone down and not shot up back to 7k a few hours later panic would set in more as people come to grips with whats happening, and not everyone that bought crypto sits on biz all day like us. Regardless there is very likely to be a good number of people with "iron hands" at 50% that will capitulate at 80% losses, and I doubt it will ultimately cost the whales much to find out how many there are.

because if sell quick enough (lets say 325 your pic) then will not be holding bags that bought @ 315 that of now worth 295

>it's just coincidence guys i swear
just admit you regret not making money when you had a chance and now you are fooling yourself into thinking there is no point in trying anymore because that is less risky for your ego

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Look at the volume. Lots of people were buying close to the peak, and the vast majority of BTC holders were holding at the peak, even if they bought earlier. So my point still stands, most BTC holders were holding while prices fell from 20K to 5.8K (even if they bought prior to the peak). If they didn't already capitulate after seeing their BTC holdings fall from 20K to 5.8K, then they're unlikely to do so now, in my opinion.

I'm actually not even in the market by any appreciable amount but I'm excited to dump a bunch of fiat in soon

Virtually noone bought at 20k. I don't know what chart you're looking at.

>If they didn't already capitulate after seeing their BTC holdings fall from 20K to 5.8K
Their holdings dropped from 12k to 6k in a week, they didn't have much time to process it.

If they've been doing research and trying to trade, they'd see that a recovery after a quick capitulation is more likely vs. a long sideways/down bear market. Therefore taking money out now is reasonable, especially if they have expenses to pay.

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>Everyone who wanted to sell has sold, and the hodltards are gonna ride this bitch
I agree with this, and also your view that the only thing the whales can really do effectively right now is liquidate longs and shorts. They can continue to Bart the prices for a while to liquidate day traders, but day traders are a small part of the overall BTC market. Most people are holders, and all Barting achieves is a temporary jump up then down then up then down again. They can't influence the overall trend this way, because Barting simply ends up with the price back where it was to begin with.

And if the whales do keep Barting to liquidate traders, then the traders will soon stop taking positions that can be so easily liquidated. They'll just stop shorting or they'll use wider stop-losses until the whales stop playing games.

what's the percentage of crypto held by whales vs. small investors? how heavy are their respective bags? would be interesting to know.

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The point is whales enter their own leveraged positions before Barting. Each Bart they make a killing. And again, the stop losses simply don't work most of the time with how rapid the jumps are. Like on a technical level, they simply aren't triggered for many people before they get liquidated

>If they've been doing research and trying to trade, they'd see that a recovery after a quick capitulation is more likely vs. a long sideways/down bear market. Therefore taking money out now is reasonable, especially if they have expenses to pay.
If they didn't already take money out at 5.8K, why would they do it now? Remember, the vast majority of current BTC holders have been holding BTC for four months since the peak at 20K, all the way down to today's prices, and passing through $5.8K on the way. They've had four months to panic sell, if they were going to do it.

Like I said, if they keep doing it then traders will stop taking positions that can be Barted. If you buy and don't sell then you can't be Barted.

I dont think regulation in one zone will affect bitcoin much, it needs more usage, solutions to transaction speed and transaction fee cost. Short term day traders and currency speculation are not what bitcoin was meant to be. I dont day trade because i believe it is mostly a losers game and i am not smart enough to be ahead of the curve with some magical "algorithm".

I believe we need something like Tether to add liquidity and confidence to the space until bitcoin grows but the fact the last auditors left and new auditors are not lined up scares me. If they have the money then prove it, stalling means they probably dont. They may have it at some time in the future, but dumping 0.6 Billions Tethers out of no where is suspicious as fuck. Also, Panama.

What fraction of the market cap would you say is dollars invested in real terms? And how might one work that out?

You'd be surprised at how poor some hodlers are at trading. I know a few early ones (sub 1k) that were REALLY hurting on this last 6.4k dump. They're getting less and less resilient because they've already seen their net worth at 20k and BTC is showing less strength after every bottom.

Going from a multi-millionaire to 6 figures hurts.

There are ways of accumulating without the price going up user.
You do it slowly giving other players time to place new orders at lower prices to buy from them.
To drive the price up, you do the opposite - immediately swallow all the volume up to some high price, then let others start placing orders way up there, who you can sell to.

Well, you're correct about people quitting margin. Bitmex had its lowest daily volume in nearly 2 months yesterday.

Hypothetically, if you have enough funds to move BTC 1%, you could have 100% ROI on bitmex every time. Hypothetically of course.

It's a cat and mouse game. Obviously the whales will switch up their MO once returns diminish. The difference is that as a retail investor you are woefully underequipped. At best you know some TA, but usually you rely on TA by Twitter superstars who get fed what to say by the whales to manipulate sentiment. They also have inside info from Bitmex, giving them a bird's eye view of where to strike next.

You're playing an FPS, they're playing an RTS.

>What fraction of the market cap would you say is dollars invested in real terms? And how might one work that out?
This is JP Morgan's view...

zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-02/jpmorgan-has-some-bad-news-bitcoin-bears

"Figure 6 shows the net amount of money invested every year since 2009. The cumulative amount has totaled around $6bn since 2009, well below the current market cap of $300bn." For Ethereum, the number is just as stark: with a market cap of $45 billion, net inflows have been under $2 billion in the past two years. This is shown in the chart below:

If JPM is right, the implications are staggering: contrary to expectations that bitcoin's market cap is a rough reflection of its inflows, JPM's calculations reveal that a mere $6 billion in net inflows since 2009 has resulted in a market cap of $330 billion. This goes to what Mike Novogratz said last week when he said that cryptos are unique, because unlike all other asset classes, there is no corresponding increase in supply when prices surge.

This also means that as new capital flows into the crypto space as more retail and institutional investors scramble for "a piece of the pie", the potential market cap gains are unprecedented."

Here is an investopedia article on the ethics of shorting:
>investopedia.com/university/shortselling/shortselling4.asp
So basically everything the article says is unethical the whales could do to drive down a coin or crypto broadly so they can short it. Bear raids, short and distort, other probably more esoteric methods, whatever.

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what are the columns on the side??

i know this is noob level but i started trading a few months ago and im not aware of that feature?

Volume Profile Visible Range. It shows the amount of BTC bought and sold at each price level within the time range of the chart. The blue/purple section represents 70% of the total volume during the chart time period.

it never even hit 20k

It did in Japan and Korea

>The difference is that as a retail investor you are woefully underequipped. At best you know some TA, but usually you rely on TA by Twitter superstars who get fed what to say by the whales to manipulate sentiment.
Agreed, hence it's best to buy and hold for the most part, but obviously take profits if something you hold experiences a huge jump in prices. I hold about 10 cryptos, and if one of them happens to jump in value much more than the others I hold (like LINK has done over the past few days for example) then I'll sell some of it and put the funds into one of my other long term holds. My NEO is pumping today, so tomorrow or the next day I'll take some profits from that and put it into WTC or XLM or one of my other holds that has underperformed over the past few weeks.

Rinse and repeat. As coins 'moon' I reallocate some of the profits to others that haven't mooned for a while. So whale games don't affect me. Taking big leveraged longs or shorts on an exchange is madness and playing into the hands of the Bart machine. For anyone who believes in the future of cypto, the best approach right now is buy, hold, and reallocate some profits when it makes sense to do so. If whales dump more coins and push prices down to 6K again I'll just buy more, because I believe the market cap is ultimately heading into multi trillions.

Don’t chuck a tantrum because the market won’t behave the way you think it should.

So the implication here is only about 5% of the market cap is real money? the implications for token / coin value is staggering.

>Mike Novogratz
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-22/novogratz-shelves-hedge-fund-sees-bitcoin-dropping-to-8-000

Well this Mike guy did call the bubble bursting. Props for the info user, its good to see some Jow Forumsanons out there spreading knowledge rather than spreading FUD or simply shilling shitcoins.

(You should Trip, unironically)

Someone on biz with an actual plan and one they're sticking to?!

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>If whales dump more coins and push prices down to 6K again I'll just buy more, because I believe the market cap is ultimately heading into multi trillions.

Literally my sentiment. I can't wait

Different fish

Some buy at those lower levels and panic at even lower levels

But yes, this has diminishing returns and at some point they need to pump to create new greed

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its about keeping weak hands off for a period of time. they want people to feel like shit for buying bitcoin its easily achieved if done every time people get a bit of hope to destroy it again and again. it only lasts so long tho and eventually you run out of cash to be burning through the books.

they try and dump it further, posting semi-daily how each individual country’s banks aren’t allowing crypto purchases, India ban fud etc. but too much money on the sidelines and those who know what btc is worth / heading to, only investors left now

Have any of you guys read the story that inspired "Moby Dick?" It's truly fascinating. A fucking giant sperm whale rammed a whaling ship before radio were invented and sunk it. The crew then was left in their small auxiliary whaleboats for like over 100 days. They ending up casting lots for who they would eat. Out of 20, only 8 survived. I don't want to spoil it for you but something very interesting happens in the middle of it as well.

You can read the first mate's account:
mysite.du.edu/~ttyler/ploughboy/1821 - Owen Chase - Essex Narrative.htm

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also interesting side note is the first mate lived a long life and his wives kept dying and he went crazy and senile and started hoarding food, probably because of the trauma of having all his wives die and almost starving to death

>they try and dump it further, posting semi-daily how each individual country’s banks aren’t allowing crypto purchases, India ban fud etc. but too much money on the sidelines and those who know what btc is worth / heading to, only investors left now
Yes, I feel we're at the point where trying to push it down much further will be increasingly expensive and unproductive for the whales.

Yeah, I actually missed sub $6k. Was such a short period of time that I didn't realize it had gone that low until I saw people talking about retesting $5.8k in a thread a couple weeks ago, threw me for a loop at first until I looked at a chart and saw that we had in fact already gone that low earlier in the year.

>If you didn't sell on the way down from 20K to 5.8K then there's very little chance that you're going to start panicking at 4K or 3K.
Their goal is to force some people to liquidate their Bitcoin to pay for expenses like taxes. Many of the people selling now don't really have a choice.

>I feel we're at the point where trying to push it down much further will be increasingly expensive and unproductive for the whales.
>Literally my sentiment. I can't wait

This is what the whales play off of. People already have forgotten that we're only 10% from the recent bottom and can easily dump back there. They can easily pump it another $4-500, get some fomo whipped up and make the final push down to correspond with new FUD.

Whales need liquidity.
They can't buy/sell into thin order books and not massively move the price.
So they hunt margin traders.

e.g. if you want to buy, you have a bot that monitors open longs. Then, at anytime that the bot detects the bids in the order book is thinner than the longs that will be liquidated (basically, you will get a "long squeeze" bigger than what you need to dump), THEN you can safely dump AND be assured that the liquidated longs will refill your dumped coins at a lower price (and maybe even increase your holdings).

So as long as this opportunity exists, why wouldn't they take it? They increase their USD value, increase their BTC holdings, at the expense of the margin traders and hodlers.

If you want to blame anyone, blame the greedy margin traders who keep providing these no-brainer opportunities to whales.

the absolute state. All you need to do as a whale is kick off panic with a little bit of sales and let noobs do the rest as they capitulate, sell, and trigger stops on the way down too

youtube.com/watch?v=xSb3Xt7V8i0

Wow spoilers dude

pushing down the price to like 2k-4k levels would be awesome for the whales.
they could incite fomo much more easily when they push it back to 6-8k, meaning probably easy 3x of their money

Nah people will start buying. If btc is below 6 then alts will be nearly fucking free.

It's still worth reading.. tbqh I didn't even fucking spoil it. The real substance is how the first mate described his feelings and shit and I never told you who it was they had to cast lots for which I was not really even in the book, but I can't tell you why lol.

just fuggin read it.. i read it pretty quickly and the first mate was a great writer who spent quite a while refining the story

Ye it's on my list so I'll get around to it. Pumping through Lolita and then Technological Slavery

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This is what happens when you get complacent. I'm betting that OP is even a paid disinfo agent.

Well, I'm on my computer everyday for several hours and I missed the part from 7k to 6k to 7k, because I just wasn't at home for a few hours.
Once we break 6k, it's clear that BTC will fall to 4k or 3k, this is -50% from here. A big reason for hodlers to panic.

>Pumping through Lolita

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No wonder you fags get rekt all the time

because smaller traders join them but always pay worse prices.

Fucking free? Alts are still overvalued by like 1000%. I bought ETH last year for $9. It's still at fucking $400 lol.

this is why the whales are taunting the hodlers, they fear the hodlers, no profit from strong hands

this
they cant strike fear into the hearts of the true believers

If you never panic sell then you never get rekt. It's easy.

so if you didn't "panic sell" at 17k you didn't get rekt ever since?

That's right. If you believe crypto is the future, and that we'll eventually hit a market cap in the multi trillions, then you haven't been rekt by holding.

Ok, fuck off reddit retard.

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so you want more cheap bitcoin?
Means ultimately you want bitcoin
Why the heck should anybody sell you those bitcoin?

Wow, great comeback. You really put me in my place.

>sell at ATH
>buyback 1 month later at 6k
>triple your BTC stack

Guess that doesn't make sense for you. Rather be braindead endless holder.

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In the end the hodler will make a ROI with lower risk. Imagine the whale group risking thousands of Bitcoin to kick off panic to just be eaten by another whale group having to buy back higher to even be able to play their game

nobody made a single fucking dime by holding if he bought anything in the last fucking 5 months

6 months be such long time
You very smart
you must be whale
you must be want moar cheap coin

JUST SELL THEN YOU PRICK

You seem angry user. Try not to become so emotionally involved when debating others on the Internet. At the end of the day, it's just words on a screen.

Yes, if you sold at the peak and re-bought at the bottom you could triple your stack. You're simply stating the obvious. But that doesn't mean holders who are in it for the long term got rekt, because ultimately the last ATH will seem tiny when the new ATH is reached, and it's hard to time the peak. The proportion of people who times it perfectly by selling at the peak and buying back at the bottom would be very low. If you managed to do that user, then congratulations, seriously.

I agree, these whales are going to get eaten buy soros & rockafella. They have way more knowledge and funds. No matter what, we will always have whales though. Nothing you can do about that! Just quit your bittchin. We will be out of this soon enough

Oh boy, this is so sad beyond belief.

I sold long ago with x30 profits from December, while you dimwitted reddit faggots kept holding, getting obliterated with -90% in most alts and -70% in BTC.

Meanwhile I am just anticipating my rebuy, but that concept is too hard to understand for you faggots. I literally did just 2 trades in 6 months: alts -> BTC -> FIAT. Now I lurk for opportunity and signals, not stressed out, especially when having taken profits.

You held. You got rekt. But yeah. NEVER SELL. ALWAYS HOLD UNTIL YOU DROP DEAD. Clearly not taking any profits is the better choice to not be stressed out.

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No rocky or greg needed. With every dump, the amount of weak hands willing to dump lowers, all that rests are stop loss hunts, which become more expensive by the day