Lets look at the bitcoin market cap at $300Billion. Did you think people had actually invested 300 billion into bitcoin? No! That figure implies that every single bitcoin was worth about 18000 dollars? But thats not the case. Because if every single bitcoin were to be sold, the price would plummet, as it did.
The first bitcoins to be sold, went for that price, and they were worth more than the next lot to be sold. Every time a bitcoin is sold, the next one sells for less. Because the market cap and the price of $20,000 was in fact a figment of your imagination. And it still is. The current market cap is accounting for well over 4,000,000 bitcoins which are believed to be lost. That amounts to about 25% of the entire market cap! At least 25% of bitcoins market cap is imaginary, because of this. And then when you take into account the fact that so many other bitcoins, haven't been traded, or have only exchanged hands once, you can imagine a whole lot more of that market cap is also imaginary.
Think of it like the screen protector in pic related. Most of the plastic isnt touching the screen. Best analogy for the bitcoin bubble is those bubbles in the screen. Bitcoin isnt dead, but the bubbles have to be ironed out. The bitcoin bull run created a bubble as terrible as the guy who put that screen protector on. Awful. Crypto will be back when the bubbles have been squeezed out.
I have no idea what the true value of bitcoin is, and i dont think theres a real way to calculate it without some seriously dodgy mathematics
Anthony Price
"Chart shows the net amount of money invested every year since 2009. The cumulative amount has totaled around $6bn since 2009, well below the current market cap of $300bn." For Ethereum, the number is just as stark: with a market cap of $45 billion, net inflows have been under $2 billion in the past two years. This is shown in the chart"
LUL only $6 billion dollars of real money invested.
A swiss company made a calculation based of of BTC's network value, with the current amount of users. 1 BTC isn't worth more than $2,700. Which may I say myself is still pretty fucking good.
Juan Thomas
how can they know this when OTC trades exist etc etc
Gavin Wright
they don't, the vast majority of buys is done OTC because thats how miners offload their coins
Caleb Brooks
This is absolutely correct, and you have all probably seen the effects yourself. The bartposting is a funny meme, but it's also a signal that even the BTC/USD pair became so thin that even moderately sized orders change the price by $500.
This is the price I have believed to be true for a long time. But we can only speculate. No one has a flawless calculation. Speculation is about who can make the best educated guess. Also The barts are a symptom of a dead market imo. Not to say it wont come back to life. But for now its dead
Landon Watson
Why are bitcoin believers so obsessed with the logarithmic time scale? I've seen this graph time and time again but only in crypto -- never in the stock market or anywhere else for that matter.
What makes it creditable?
Eli Jones
Humans experience the world in log. A sound that appears 10 times as loud has 100 times the energy.
William Hughes
It's to keep the illusion of eternal growth going. Obviously linear "REAL" market prices dispel this so they come up with something that changes the x and y axis in order to fit their preconceived notions into it. Delusional is the term you are looking for.
Robert Nelson
your perception of time increases log-arithmetically as you age too. Thats why your 20s go so fast.
I used to be like you. I did a lot of thinking and realised logarithmic charts were actually very credible when used correctly.
The reason you dont like them, is because you're not thinking about what I'm actually showing you.
Bentley Walker
The real value of any asset is meant to change constantly. Demand and supply are not static, therefore value cannot be static either.
If people selling oranges did so in a supply-demand exposed market such as stock exchanges, you'd see that constant volatility in oranges value, too.
Samuel Wilson
Wrong. You don't know the difference between price and value.
Carter Howard
Market tension between supply and demand is what determines the consensus between value and price.
If a consensus is reached, then there's no difference between price and value. Consensus are being reached constantly.
Nathaniel Murphy
>your perception of time increases log-arithmetically as you age too Wait what the fuck?....seriously?
Hunter Campbell
>your perception of time increases log-arithmetically as you age too. Thats why your 20s go so fast Seems fucking slow enough when I'm at work
Kayden Perry
>That figure implies that every single bitcoin was worth about 18000 dollars? But thats not the case. Because if every single bitcoin were to be sold, the price would plummet, as it did. I hate when people say this like they've discovered some deep dark secret of crypto. It's exactly the same with stocks. Do you think if everyone market sold pic related the price would stay at $1020 per share?
Yep Sucks ass, right? Well.. the time flies when youre having fun etc rule still stands for day to day basises unfortunately
Asher Rivera
Yeah. I looked it up and you're right. It's probably one of the saddest things I've ever heard actually.
Julian Richardson
so you just realized marketcap =/= money invested, you must feel like a genius
Nothing has the marketcap=money invested. Not stocks, not commodities, hell; not even money itself.If you look from that standpoint everything is a bubble.
Only thing matters is supply and demand. If demand drops, and pressure turns from buy to sell, everything loses value and vice versa
Gotta say these tron investors at least learn'd what marketcap is, hopefully they'll learn more about finance and economics in the upcoming 6 months to a year.
