I watched Anton Kreil's 2 hour lecture on how the banking and securities industry worked, and he basically said investing is 10% Technical analysis and 90% Fundamental.
As an ex Goldman Sachs trader, he also said that no big hedge funds use TA, and they all trade in a specific way (30+ positions in a portfolio, multiple portfolios, no more than 5% of your cash in any one position, % limits on risk, etc)
So, what do you guys think of TA? Is it effective? What TA tips do you have? What TA works for you? Link to Kreil's lecture:youtube.com/watch?v=L7G0OfJUON8&t= *note* He IS trying to sell his own course, so make of that what you will.
itt: people who don't make,money with TA. The people who make money with TA don't waste their time talking about it because they are too busy making money.
Isaiah Clark
you just said nothing of substance
Hudson Gomez
>yes goy, don't use freely available TA, pay $2995 for my online video course that will teach you how to REALLY trade based on fundamentals lol
There are quants out there who make money using TA, they just do it in a more rigorous way than your average Jow Forumstard who draws lines on a chart.
John Gomez
TA is bullshit. memelines use arbitrary reference points, elliot waves use arbitrary time resolution, etc. It's just the old human error of seeing patterns in the noise, no better than reading the stars. If the price moves and it's not because of news, it's because of market sentiment and people's opinions shuffling about. It's all speculation. TA assumes that price is a quantitative phenomenon driven by latent variables when price is really a chaotic swirl of human decision making.
Joseph Jackson
Except that's wrong. You can define head and shoulders mathematically, just like many TA indicators are well-defined.
Dylan Scott
How does TA work with Crypto when half the people who are buying and selling are just throwing money at shit they don't understand. So many idiots are jumping on crypto without even checking charts and buying because they've been told to buy a certain coin.
Austin Thompson
HE IS A FUCKING IMBECILE
THAT IS WHAT.
NO ONE CAN TIME THE MARKET AND INDEX FUNDS PREFORM BETTER THEN HEDGE FUNDS ALL DAY EVERYDAY
TA is only popular because brokers that actually make decent returns need to hide their insider trading behind something. If you don't realize that big hedge fund managers and major day traders do so well because their frat buddy golfs with the CFO, you don't understand the industry.
This is well-known by everyone on the floor. I hate to break it to you bud. If you know anyone above grunt on the floor ask them. They dont even deny it.
Anthony Howard
Do you really believe the stock market is different? Remember Enron or the dotcom burst?
Ethan Sanders
always arbitrary scaling, and the predicted results are either not quantitative (predicts direction but never the magnitude or duration) or aren't statistically reliable. and no matter how many indicators people come up with, there will never be fundamental theorems that indicators can be derived from. TA posts only show analysis on the recent history and extrapolations. What they need is demonstrations that the same analysis worked in a significant majority of previous scenarios.
Asher Rodriguez
>there will never be fundamental theorems that indicators can be derived from. You don't need "fundamental theorems" if you have an edge.
>What they need is demonstrations that the same analysis worked in a significant majority of previous scenarios. Do you not understand what a quant does?
Christopher Rodriguez
it's effective against people that follow TA when trading. against smarter people that use TA to trap other traders and profit on them it's obviously not.
Christian Adams
I am a quant dipshit. the same indicator barely works 55% of the time, and that's cherry picking. if it doesn't work it's always "oh actually it was a different indicator." without fundamental theorems it's not a science, it's just jerking off with numbers.
Landon Cook
>I am a quant dipshit kek let me guess, 300k starting at ren? Yeah right bud.
Benjamin Bennett
TA total bullshit
Christopher Flores
95%+ of TA traders lose money compared to the market return and only a fraction of the traders that beat the market make good money in the long run. That being said, FA is a waste of time for most regular people too for similar reasons. If you don’t have a background in finance/economics or as a professional trader then index funds/ a highly diversified passive portfolio is the way to go. Trading/investing is probably the most competitive activity in the world, but ironically you can beat most traders/investors by doing nothing at all (i.e. passive investing/holding). I work in finance fwiw.
Oliver Martinez
Several things, OP.
Stop listening to other peoples' opinions, stop looking for reassurance, stop looking for "guidance" from people who don't know what they're talking about (those who have little experience in technical analysis, which I thoroughly believe encompasses most detractors of technical analysis).
One of the most effective tools in technical analysis are Moving Averages. This is because they are used by market participants the world over.
It varies market to market, but the 10, 20, 50, and 200 period SMA's are some of the most watched/used indicators of market momentum. They are also used for entry/exit. They are most effective when used in trending markets, with high volume backing the movements.
Look at the 200 period SMA on all timeframes, look at how price moves above and below it. Use it to guide what you do. It's not perfect (nothing is) which is why you must incorporate risk management into any approach you choose, but it's a simple approach to trading. There is immense power in simplicity, when combined with a disciplined approach.
In certain (like the indices) ranging markets, on the lower timeframes, the VWAP is quite helpful as well. Again, this is because it is used by institutional algorithms.
Start off simple, and learn the characteristics of the market you trade. All markets have their own "personalities", due to their differing liquidity, and the types of algos/people who trade them. Fashion an approach to suit the market.
Sebastian Murphy
>10% Technical analysis and 90% Fundamental. He's right, at least if you're investing in stocks. Now, for cryptocurrencies this is a bit different since it's not yet clear which are the fundamentals in cryptos that determine their prices. I have some ideas about this but that's another story.
Don't pay attention to TA cucks in this board. They have no idea of how to evaluate fundamentals of a company. TA is much easier to learn than fundamental analysis, which is why you see so many of those people around here. Charts are good for representing the price history of a market, not for making predictions. If you really want to make predictions based on price, then use statistics (machine learning models, Bayesian probabilistic models, etc).
If you're not convinced with what I wrote, just start keeping track of top chartists on TradingView. Test the accuracy of their predictions.
TA is good for very short term trades, the reason Anton doesn't believe in TA is because Quants take all the short term opportunities therefore TA is redundant .
Noah Sanchez
I also watched like 15 m of this on YT the other day for some reason it popped up in my recommends, but it was imo a really shitty talk. The typical "I know better and factor X stops you" stuff. He never said what you SHOULD do, just the easy way of blaming everyone else
Nolan Gray
so... a framework to abstract this people psychology might come in handy :O like measuring momentum and trends strength :O
TA is not a strategy. Meme line cross over is not a scalable strategy that will work for billion dollar fund. This bullshit exists and is sold by retail brokers so they can take your fucking money, $4.95 at a time. >work in trading
Camden Bailey
Also TA is overfitting. /thread
Jordan Williams
>he thinks he can compete with HFT funds by drawing a couple of random lines Lol
Brayden Russell
thats exactly what anton said, which has made me question TA and the motives of brokers to teach TA.
Isaiah Adams
>itt: plebs who are too lazy to pick up a book and learn technical analysis
Samuel Harris
Actually a good post but people will still ignore it.
Anton speaks out against day trading because he believes that over trading means profits just get eaten away by commission. His grand idea is to trade less, using longer timeframes. In his course, he covers moving averages btw. He doesn't discount technical analysis. It's important, it's just not the only important thing in the approach he teaches.
Carter Hughes
does he say to buy every time the moving averages cross like brokers teach you?
Jace Wright
So your disdain for the strategy comes from it's association with retail brokers teaching it, which I understand.
But let me explain why it's so popular, and therefore, taught to many newcomers. The point of that strategy is to point you in the direction of the market's momentum (i.e. where price is, relative to the longer period SMA), and give you a way to enter into the trend that the momentum is generating (swing high/low of the shorter period moving average). It's a very helpful way to trade trends, when you're just starting off.
But of course, it can't work in all market conditions, and this is what many traders don't understand I feel. It's one of the many mistakes we all make. I doubt there are any strategies which apply to all market conditions.
Moving averages are very helpful filters to your trading. The crossover strategy is certainly not the only way to use them.
Trend following strategies are often some of the first things taught to newcomer traders because trends exist, and they're very precious things because they can make you a lot of money.
Retail Brokers don't want their clients to blow up their accounts and stop paying them commissions. Although, some brokers do bet against clients, and so make money from their clients' losses. But I believe this is just due to most traders inevitably failing when they first start out (some failing too significantly to recover, becoming part of the 90% who fail).
Jonathan Stewart
do you know of any good resources for TA I can use? Very happy to do some more reading. my knowledge is abysmal atm. I didnt make this post to shit on TA, just to say im sceptical of it, especially given brokers have an incentive to make people trade as often, and in as high volume, as possible
TA is good for entry. The hedge funds use TA, and fundamentals to enter. TA is also good for exit. At the end of the day fundementals provide investor confidence, and TA provides speculative confidence, but fundementals always lead.
Ayden Bennett
>fundementals always lead This.
Carson Phillips
Study the history of trading, they likely aren't good enough to take a purely technical approach on a short time with the amount of money they have
Bentley Perez
The lines aren't arbitrary, they're taken from the highest highs and lowest lows in a trading range.
Zachary Howard
Good man.
Dominic Williams
Humans are flawed, the new way to make money is through artificially intelligent bots doing speculation and arbitrage by deep-learning sentitment analysis on social networks, and heuristically looking through the space-state of stochastic differential equations fitted through EM algorithms over the different exchange APIs.
