Time for a litmus test

2/3 chance I picked box 1
1/3 chance I picked box 2

Ergo tehrefore 2/3 chance I have a gold ball, 1/3 chance I got a silver ball #PROVE MEWRONG!!!

50%, unless you put it back in which case 75%

3 grey balls
3 gold balls
It doesn't matter which box it is.

>American education

>it doesn't matter which box it is
americans never fail to amuse me with their stupidity
You couldn't have picked the third box

ah same box. didn't read it.

>American reading comprehension

In that case, the probability would be 2/5

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you're thinking you can't put the ball back though

The problem doesn't say that you put the ball back, so stop making stuff up.

it doesn't say that you can keep it either. It just says you take it.

2/3rds but it's not very intuitive at first

Yes. It says you take it. It doesn't say you put it back. Take it. Period.

>b-but you could put it b-back
You could also bring a box full of golden balls with you, but that's not the OP's problem, is it?

2/3
this is a rehash of the monty hall problem

2/3

I can take a penny out of my wallet, but I can still put it back. The scenario doesn't imply I keep it

why it is 2/3 instead of 1/2?

.bump. want to know it now.

>.bump. want to know it now.
.bump. want to know it now.

they're pretending to be retarded in a desperate attempt to be funny(they aren't), the correct answer is 1/2

ok, thanks you. i like you a lot.

have a great day user.

44%

>tfw thought the answer was 1/3
>look at the thread
Damn, I'm so stupid.

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>2/3 chance at grabbing a box with a gold ball in it
>3/4 chance of grabbing the gold ball

49.5% chance of grabbing a gold ball.

prove me wrong.

I didn't read it propper. gold ball implies you are in one of two boxes containing a gold ball, so 50%

People only saying it's 2/3 because two of the three boxes have a gold ball in it. It's the same answer as 1/2 because you're picking the box at random and since there is 6 balls total and half are grey and half are gold. These problems are meant to cause argument like that one math problem that gives you two different answers

2/3. This is piss easy, you learn this shit in primary school.

it's not .5 because you already know that you picked a gold ball
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox

>If a gold coin was withdrawn in the first step

The odds of picking a gold ball is 1/2.
The odds of picking a second gold ball is 1/3 (equal to picking box one)
The odds of picking a gold ball given that the first one was gold is (1/3)/(1/2)=2/3 (conditional probability theorem)

A more intuitive way: you picked a gold ball so you can ignore the third box. You now have 3 balls left in box 1 and two, with two being gold balls. The odds of picking a gold ball is therefore 2/3.

because there's 2 balls meaning there's 2 possibilities for choosing that ball
let each ball represent a letter A-F
any combinations of the two would be {A,B},{B,A},{C,D},{D,C},{E,F},{F,E} since we're only pulling from the same box, and order matters
this means there's 3 ways to choose 1 golden ball and 2 ways to choose 2 golden balls, making the probability 2/3
there's like 5 other ways i can write this but all of them follow this same logic

Nah senpai it's 50/50.. think about it

Read the thread; it isn't.

Actually now that i read your answer I kinda see why it could be 2/3

If we name the balls

g1, g2, g3, s1, s2, s3

Then you would have 2 sequences out of 3 that would fulfill the condition

g1 > g2
g2 > g1
g3 > s1 (undesirable outcome)

Therefore yeah it's 2/3

That might actually be right, it's such a mind fuck honestly cuz you wouldnt think order would matter in such a case and it's literally a matter of which box you're in, box 1 or box 2.. idk man im going back to bed

2/3

t.white man

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order matters when dealing with conditional probability

shut up mutt, more than half of your countrymen thought its 50%

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It's a bit more clearer when you draw the probability tree.

why are you talking to me

I'm on mutt patrol tonight. Putting mutts in their place

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Are you cute? Post eye

Truth is, game was rigged from the start.

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well it's a 50/50 its the left or middle box so a 50/---- oh fuck

because it's twice as likely you picked the box on the left since it has twice the gold balls

(1/3)/(1/2) = 2/3 =66%
1/2 is 1/3 + 0.5*1/3 = 2/6+1/6 = 3/6 = 1/2 and thus chance to pull a first gold ball
Then 1/3 is the chance to get the box with two gold balls and you just divide it because it's known you got a first gold ball.. Didn't people learn it in hs? I learned it 4 years ago and I still remember it

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