Two more tidbits for chainlink investors

(cont'd) but it will be small, early and driven by baby money. The real upside of Chainlink is the endgame: Chainlink is what the truly big sharks are going to use to eat mere whales.
If you have a network that requires Link and that saves even 10% of business costs, you CANT EVEN STAY IN BUSINESS unless you're in. Corporate profit margins are thin, that's why cost savings are so sought after. The real explosion, my guess, will be in 2020 after early adopter business start seeing real cost savings using the network THEY BUILT. If you were a business and you had a thing that gave you a huge competitive advantage over your peers, how much would you charge them to get in?
Price is always supply and demand, and when that happens there will be a small amount of supply and a HUGE amount of totally inelastic demand.
Like I said, i do know more about the project than is posted here. I can't post any of it and I'm not going to timestamp anything. You shouldn't take this post as anything other than a reasonable viewpoint. That said, here are realistic price predictions (with 90% CI's based on my own data) so that you can make an informed decision on whether you want to try to get crypto rich fast or just ride the link train to slow riches:

EOY2018 1.5 (0.5-8)
EOY2019 3.5 (1-45)
EOY2020 15 (5-700)
EOY2024 1500 (75-45000)

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This is not what I'm referring to, I'm referring to statements Sergey has made when talking about this specific problem, especially as it relates to customer needs/SGX

>Those estimates

user, just stfu and hold LINK & wait for mainnet like the rest of /biz.

>I'm referring to statements Sergey has made when talking about this specific problem,
Stop talking out of your ass

A final thought for anyone who cares to hear:
In very high net worth investing, there is basically one formula that gets used over and over to generate the really big fortunes (9 figures and above):
Take young entrepreneur team (young in investing is anyone under 45) with good idea and have established players vet the regulatory/business side. Then partner the two and have the old guys keep the young guys out of the reeds while the young guys provide the insane amount of work needed to get things done.
The people who always end up rich are the old guys and its for one reason: the have patience and discipline. The number one thing that will determine how much money you make investing is your ability to find out about good projects early AND to sit there holding them while they progress. Use that how you will.

stop hyping up mainnet like it's gonna make more than a 5 -10 percent move before falling

Did you not see what happened to REQ?
NOTHING

Yall tripping

>bitcoin will eventually die
Stopped right there. You’re an idiot if you think the most secure blockchain in the world will just die because it’s not as sexy and exciting as all the bullshit people have been flinging lately

Chainlink whitepaper pgs 34-38

Cope

It will die because technology based assets always approach their real world value savings over time in an asymptotic fashion.
There was a time where transferring $1mm in 40 minutes for $2 on a blockchain was impressive, now it is not.
The above applies rigidly to technology assets, somewhat to business assets and somewhat inversely to collectible assets.

this has to be the worst LINK thread so far this year. if youre going to larp, at least say something interesting or, at worst, true.

>REQ let's you buy crypto with fiat on their platform
>Much revolutionary

Nobody gives a fuck. This project is not a scam but it's not a game changer like LINK.

All of what I have said is true.
If you doubt me, "screencap this" and recheck it in 1-2 years.

Why does sergay own 65% of the supply? How do you justify that?

Someone prove him wrong about not being able to compete in node environment

Hey bro, what are the numbers in parenthesis?

>what every person tells them self holding a bag
that coin is shit but MY coin will do this
fuck off
5-10% as i said, cap this right now you faggot

So he can sell it for 75% off to large buyers / corporations making our measly 1k ,5k ,10k absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of Link

Remember that this is a corporate project.
Sergey doesn't have that SWIFT, AXA etc. have that supply.
I would guess (I do not have information on this) that when the network starts saving those groups money, they will sell to their competition at a price just low enough that it doesn't put them out of business.
Better to cut the legs off your rival and keep him than to kill him and spawn a younger, healthier competition.
50 California St aint cheap "brah"...

I will be happy to provide you with the most logical counterargument to that statement if you would like (even though it will be mostly wrong).

The thought ChainLink failing makes me feel bad.

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Those are 90% confidence intervals for the estimates, based on valuation estimates of other tech companies for which I have historic data.

You should not fear chainlink failing
That is unlikely
You should fear yourself failing by impatience
Becoming a "trader"
And spending the rest of your life as a joke to people like me
As all traders are

Also, if those truly are your crypto holdings you have made some good decisions. Sit on your hands for the next 3 years and then retire rich.

Can’t wait for that $45,000 Link

If this really is a project as corporately conceived as you say, there's literally no way it's not going to multibillions market cap once that gets out to the public and there's nothing they can do about it. It was already at $1.4 dollar with zero hype and literally only biz knowing about it.

If chainlink is what you say it is your 2018 estimate is way too conservative.

Give us some joocy deets that aren’t public, or at least a hint you roody poo

Lower and upper limits given the confidence intervals (CI's) (Most likely 95% chance that the link token value will fall between those values).

though the ranges on the rest of them are reasonable, if silly considering what marketcap they would represent and what things like Tron have at the present. If people are upset hearing it could be $8 eoy 2018, they are children.

I actually agree with what you're saying it makes a lot of sense. Cheers to you and here's to 3 years down the road.

You may be right, for that reason the 90% CI is right skewed pretty far.
That said, everyone (and I mean everyone) falls into the trap of overestimating short term volatility and underestimating long term impacts.
There's a reason that's maybe the most frequently used rule of thumb in tech investing.

It is a total cop out but I would if I could.
The potential downside for me to give away anything directly here is very large, even though it would feel good to get the ego boost.
The best I can do is basically this:
All the stuff I know that isn't here is essentially confirmatory. It would change very little to none in how I would invest in the project, it just makes more confident in my investment.

Please do. I plan on running a node so this is discouraging.

If they dont know which Oracle provided their data . How could we be outcompeted

ICO makes any sense if this were an actual corporate project.

Also it wouldn't make any sense neither that the Chainlink team itself has encouraged the community to run nodes. I was interested at first, but you are full of bullshit

Rory has already said that biz has helped find projects which may end up using CL.

This means that it isn't just a corporate project and how I know you are Larping.

I was going to say "good try though" but it really wasn't.

suck a dick bag holder
While you sit there reading Jow Forums biz threads all day holding with NO price action

I'm swing trading all 5 of my coins, and adding to their stack

You just suck at trading , admit it. You sell at the wrong time. It starts pumping a little, you panic and fomo in
It immediately starts selling off a little , then you sell for a loss

The way you felt that you needed to stress the most basic aspects of trading shows me you're a brainlet, on drugs, or pajeet

>If you have multiple parties looking to get paid for supplying the same information and you want to prevent "copying" you use post and call. What that means is that every party writes down their answer and then at a later time they are all revealed at once, that way nobody can "copy."

This is to prevent a malicious node operator from just having one node retrieve the data and the rest copying, so it seems decentralized but in reality it's just hundreds of nodes mirroring the one that actually has a real result. This has literally nothing to do with preventing node operators from making money off of API data.

The most logical counterargument is simple:
This is an open source project that easily meshes with an open source blockchain (eth). So literally any data feed, even one you could rent or generate yourself would have potential value and be monetizable. So some data (bond rates, stock prices etc.) will be proprietary but most can be used for whatever a company wants.

This is incorrect because the value of data in this instance is its frequency of use and how critical it is that the data is accurate. The most profitable data streams (which would execute high value contracts and be highly reliable) will indeed be cash cows, but they will be tightly guarded by their originators. One silver lining: everyone isn't making billion dollar deals. Providing niche second hand data will always have value, but it won't get you a megayacht.

If you were a corporate entity and had built a hugely profitable network that you basically owned, would you want more people to use it and make you richer?

nice fud

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This is an excellent example of the phenotype of a trader.
I always hear about how much money they're making. They're very vocal about it. But somehow they never end up rich.
It's the funniest thing.

He's saying that instead of doing that shit, spend time on developing an original Idea, and you will be a 9 figure boy.

But your omg I HIT MILLION brain can't comprehend.

Thanks for the based viewpoints OP.

what would you like to say about the probability of facebook using chainlink?

Wow such a loser, trying to flex in a thai ladyboy appreciation site. Lmao

Good stuff

You got one of those right, i won't tell you which

Social media and anything "cool" is way out of what I know.
I would guess that if Facebook tried to integrate blockchain, I would view it as a desperate attempt to co-opt something "hot" to help with increasing bad press.
I would generally view that as a negative long term prognosticator. But again, I am the opposite of cool and don't claim to have the slightest idea about valuing social media companies.

Op, I'm not saying you're a larper. But one of the largest investors and holders of the link token expects a $20 dollar per token long term. What makes you think you would know the price better than them?, when they have insider info and are the 4th largest holder of the link token.

If you can't name the company I'm talking about (which is public info) i have no doubt you're a larper.

Out of interest, what is your background user. What did you study as a degree and what type of function do you have, just a broad description.

And thanks again.

fair enough. do you expect link/usd on any exchanges before mainnet launches?

To be fair, that is based on >70% market penetration for the use of smart contracts in feasible use cases in B2B and assuming ChainLink is the oracle provider for 70% of those smartcontracts.
But dreamin aint bad...and sometimes you're right.

>Op, I'm not saying you're a larper.
he is a larper. for some reason CL threads attract them like flies are attracted to shit.

I'm not sure I even understand what I'm LARPing as. I'm an investor who has conducted research. Some of that research contains information that isn't on Biz, other than that I'm not claiming anything. If that other, larger, better informed investor thinks $20 is a more realistic price target, then they're probably more likely to be correct than me.

You do know Smartcontracts will reimburse node operators in links for providing external data right ?

who are you OP?

Who knows if he's a larper. I'm just open for some interesting discussion.

I've been called by my friends the "most average rich guy there is"
In general rich guys follow this path:
Education in something hard (generally business or hard science), early career in that thing, make money, learn to invest, make more money, semi-retire and focus almost entirely on investing (because the money from time spent in that dwarfs any other non-self-directed use of time).

That describes me perfectly.

OP what are your holdings?

I have no idea and no information on this outside of what is posted here. Some other anons may know more though?

Do you mean the ChainLink network will do this?

See a couple posts down.

What's his basis for $20?

can you go in a little more detail? i find myself very similar to the position that you may have been in before, early career in biz, stashing away savings year after year and made a nice profit from crypto and want to leverage that in more safer investments, but have a nice holding in link too for the long term and would like to make investing my main source of income (key here not trading) but fundamental investing.

so OP are you saying that stakeholding non-corporate catered coins would be better than LINK? ie OMG or VEN

I have three tiers:
- Index funds
- Stocks in the field I understand best/have connections
- Crypto: Eth, Link and tiny investments in a few fun longshots

I take profits from each rung and move them to the next rung up. Every so often I sell some index funds when I want/need money.

Other times, rich guys study something bullshitty like philosophy, get millions in funding from suckers at the height of a bubble, and eat for free at McDonalds for the rest of their life.

To each rich man his own

they don't understand what larping is. if you're not outside at a park with a sword and cardboard shield you're not live action role playing. you're not even role playing, you're just some user speculating and giving advice; that's not a role nor is it role playing.

See two posts down.
Also:
Generally I've heard that once your holdings become 2-3x your annual salary it's more important for you to spend time optimizing your investments and minimizing your tax burden than it is to work on improving your skill set to get more job money.
I've also heard that after 25x annual expenses or a 4% sustainable withdraw rate you can consider semi-retiring.
Both have been true for me.

Thank you for replying OP.

>Like I said, i do know more about the project than is posted here. I can't post any of it and I'm not going to timestamp anything.

Why can't you post any of the info that you supposedly know and biz don't? To me that would imply that you're an insider and posting that info would put in danger your career, that could be seen as larping.

this is a good investment strategy. when did you realize the key to investing and wealth long term is to understand the power of compounding returns? was it something that struck you working in the corporate world hours upon hours that time would be better spent researching for yourself instead of renting your time out?

thanks I really appreciate it. this makes a lot of sense.

Let's say you and I were friends and we both researched investment ideas together. One day we found a really good one and put in a lot of time making sure it was really good. We promised to keep our findings between the two of us so we could both benefit.

Then one day I saw that you had taken my work and posted it to a public anonymous image board. How would I feel?

Sergei said if you pay for data you will be reimbursed in link, by Smartcontracts, and that they have links for this. That's not counting the link you get as rewards.

I generally do the same thing for most things in life:
1. decide if that thing is important or not
2. if its important, read as much as i can about it
3. try it out, if the book stuff works, great, if not keep asking around/learning/trying until i get it

I basically did that with investing because I thought it was important.

Hi, it's a company not an individual. However $20 per token does not mean that's the maximum price it can get.
Companies like that have goals that have to be reached, even if they have to let go after their investment reaches 40x instead of the potential 10,000x.

Companies are not speculators and have goals.

I believe link has the potential to reach op's prices within his CL's. However i don't know if he's larping or not.

No problem happy to.

one more question. kind of directly related to this one...is there something that we need to maybe pay more attention to in terms of corporate developments as time goes on for chainlink? we saw a lot of ties with Tom Gonser/Salesforce/Mulesoft last month at SXSW and know Sergey is well connected in the VC space, but this is mostly speculation right now and don't know for sure. We also haven't heard any newer development with regards to the SWIFT smart oracles. I'm trying to figure out if there is somewhere to look more indepth to get confirmation that this speculation is true.

That does not sound correct as I understand it.
I believe oracle-derived data is paid for by the requesting party as part of the smartcontract. That payment (ar at least a large part) is paid in link and goes to the node supplying the data.

>Why can't you post any of the info that you supposedly know and biz don't?
for the last time: BECAUSE HE'S A FUCKING LARPer!!!!!

asking a LARPer for anything concrete is utteryly futile. what's so hard to understand???

So you are either Jason Parser or Chad O'Fork.

how do you protect yourself from market crashes? own any precious metals?

So... You're Assblaster's investment buddy? Did you really feel hurt when he started sharing your findings with us?

I think all of this has already been posted on biz but: the swift implementation will likely be one of the last with full use maybe in 2020 due to the slowness of banks/the financial world.
I think that use case will be huge, but it won't be online before a large number of private enterprises are using/developing the network for their own ends.

OP do you think you could post the price calculation with a 95% confidence interval?
I do not know where you got the data but it would be interesting to know how much increasing 5% the CI's would close the price boundaries.

This makes a lot of sense. I re-read Assblaster's first thread the other day, and it struck me that even though he was most definitely not larping (retards will disagree) and gave many of us our first indication of the scope and corporate nature of this project, he, as a product of Jow Forums, fell victim to the habit of overestimating price movements, by a lot.

This should give a sense of relief to all of us who plan on continually stacking LINK until the market dynamics that OP described kick into effect.

Smart anons will walk away filthy rich from this if we're patient.

I honestly don't even know if AB was who he said he was. He did say a number of things that would be consistent with him being who he said he is.

but it begs the question, why accumulate and wait 6 years when other people are going on moon missions and achieving their goals in one year from riding microcap pumps?

>oracle-derived data is paid for by the requesting party

Yes, but it is paid to the node operator in LINK, not to the API provider. And besides, banks will be required to provide free API data streams which the nodes will connect to and monetize.

In what way will the API providers be able to take the data monetization for themselves when they're obliged to give said data away for free?

Without getting too deep, I try to spread my investments across potential future scenarios weighted on their probability. Most arguments for precious metals involve some degree of societal recession or collapse. For those scenarios I view simpler investments as more optimal (eg rifles, ammunition, non perishable food, toiletries etc.). For that reason I hold very little (less than 1%) of my portfolio in precious metals.