World's next country?

New Caledonia recently voted no to become independent, and the world country tally still stands at 193, if we only count UN nations. Which begs the question, where do you think will become the world's next independent country? Catalonia? Scotland? Palestine? Somaliland?

I personally would place my bets on Bougainville in Papua New Guinea. They are scheduled to have an independence referendum in June 2019, and the result is expected to be overwhelmingly in favor of independence. Bougainville is known for fuck all, except human rights violations, and rape. In 2013, a UN survey found that 62% of all men had raped a woman, with 41% having raped a non-partner, 14% having commited gang rape and 8% having raped another man. They will probably prosper like South Sudan.

Thoughts? Meme answers are allowed, but please discuss this exciting topic seriously too.

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Bougainville seems most likely. I don't really see anything new popping up in Europe or the Americas anytime soon. I don't really know about how things are going in the lesser known Asian and African countries

Québec

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why would you want to keep being part of France?

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Same reason French Guinea is

can i get a link to that page pls?

also, why doesn't bougainville join up with the solomon islands?

ooga boogas?

Being a part of France probably ensures they have some kind of floor in terms of standard of living. Independence would remove that and they'd be on their own.

>New Caledonia receives about 1.3 billion euros ($1.5 billion) in French state subsidies every year, and many had feared the economy would suffer if ties were severed.

FREE MONEY

The natives primarily voted for independence, while the descendants of the colonials voted to stay with France. And there are more colonials than natives.

lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/new-caledonia-independence-referendum-reminder-realities
This is where I found the image, if that's what you want. I haven't read it, I just liked the picture.

most people that live in new caledonia aren't natives (kanak)

in the map itself the districts that voted no are the ones that have the least kanaks

What do you think would happen if Scotland declared independence?

Doesn't your constitution legally allow you to secede? Must be convenient.

thanks :3

I can't see Quebec, Scotland, or Catalonia happening any time soon, nor do I see meme American movements like California/Alaska/Texas happening either. It would take some massive clusterfuck the likes we have never seen before to cause modern western states to fracture; the average person simply doesn't want the amount of instability and discomfort the fight for independence requires unless staying is even worse.

you didn't hear it from me, but here in Maryland there is a big secessionist movement in the works. we'll be leaving the union for good soon

>What do you think would happen if Scotland declared independence?
Probably A LOT of rioting, before the army is sent in and makes a mess of it.

You're welcome Mexibro

>Right next to D.C.
I don't think so, Tim

Are they even allowed though? After Trump won there was a lot of talks of California leaving the union, but as far as I understood it then, there is no legal way for a state to just leave.

And why would Maryland want to become independent? Cali and Texas I can get, but what's in it for Maryland?

desu I wish the US would balkanize so bad

>Bougainville
Hot as fuck and humid as hell. What an awful place to live.

have you been there

You cannot leave the Union legally. However, most of the Fathers thought the USA was a temporary construct and the states would inevitably go their own way once the Union was no longer necessary for preserving muh freedoms. The Civil War ended up changing that and the Fed took a lot of measures over the years to try and artificially force the "America is just one nation meme"; in the process, a lot of different identities were squashed - this leads to the whole "cultureless USA" thing Europeans love to talk about.
Anyway, the only way I could ever see states seceding are if 1) they control a lot of territory 2) the US is in a state far worse than one we are in now, we haven't even hit 60s level instability yet and 3) the populace of those regions would have to actually need a reason to leave beyond "muh bad orange man" and "muh evil carpet bagging yankees." Texas is the least likely; I doubt Mexico would support it. Russia might support an Alaskan or Californian breakway, so they seem to be the most likely. Anything east of that is going to be a part of the Union forever.

Didn't some tiny minority in Central Asia create a small mountain nation a year ago and nobody cared to stop them?

Because we won the demographic battle, the proprtion of French exceded the proportion of Kanaks in 2000.
I wish our women had more children.

Have you been? Were you raped?

Cool, thanks for the insight. I didn't know about the pre-civil war stuff.
>in the process, a lot of different identities were squashed
Can you give some examples?

I've literally never heard about this. Where in Central Asia was this supposed to have happened?

From what I've seen, Spain is very disunited. Every region considers itself a different country. Every edgy person in Spain will say they're Asturian, or Basque, or Catalan before Spanish.

The American Creole people are a good example. While people descended from them are still plentiful, they were pretty culturally separate from the rest of Americans. After the civil war, they were heavily pushed into greater assimilation. Now the whole identity is mostly dead.

New Caledonia's GDP is $2.6B. They receive $1.5B a year from France

To cede would be suicide.

>I've literally never heard about this
Man, I might be manufacturing memory here. I just remember that it was a very small nation that started with a Y. And they had a really cheesy website that looked like it was from 20 years ago.

I tried googling it and found nothing. I have a pretty good grasp of the world's secessionist movements, of course something's bound to slip under my radar, but I think I would have found out if a literal country was created. Can't think of any group in Central Asia starting with a Y that would want to secede either. Let me know if you find that website again.

They could survive, the island is richer than the All Eastern Europe and South America.
The 1.5B are probably throwing money down the drain to pay the useless State workers and the bureaucracy.

I do too because I'm a Shadowrun fan and I want to move to Oregon and LARP as an elf desu

In know it's stupid to only base the wealth of a region in term of GDP per capita, but in term of GDP per capita, New Caledonia is richer than New Zealand and the fourth richest region in Oceania after Australia, Hawaii and French Polynesia.

>omg guys
>we have a colony that isn't a hellhole
What a surprise.

Yeah kinda, they still hold some 1/4th of all the world's nickel, the profits from which now largely go to mainland France. With proper management, they could become one of the wealthier nations in Oceania.

South Vietnam will rise again!

I imagine some forgotten African country will break apart and nobody will care because it's not close enough to Europe

They have more their place in France than the Antilles and Guyane. Reunion is based too, but a bit poor for French criteria (still rich compared to Eastern Europeans who insult them).

Like Biafra.

>the profits from which now largely go to mainland France.
Also this

Yeah whatever happened with South Sudan? Youngest country as far as I remember, hope they are doing well.

War and literal genocide ever since independence. Not a success story unfortunately.

What are the chances of Georgia giving up on Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

I'd say small. You don't just give away what you believe is your rightful clay, and it would probably set precedent for the rest of the Caucasus, which is a clusterfuck of secessionist movements. Would be cool though, to have not three but tens of small Caucasian countries. Artsakh, Naxcivan, Adjaria, Abkhazia, the list goes on, and that's not including the stuff in Russia like Chechnya and Dagestan etc

Well, this thread died fast

You think the French state workers and bureaucrats in new Caledonia voted to stay because independence would cease their free money?