approximately!
the forecast may need some time-compression tho -- events might unfold a bit faster... maybe... hopefully.
Also, for you fags so desperate for a bullrun that you can't handle this reality, and for people who get triggered when you see a chart and your brain melts and you feel compelled to whine meme-ingly about TA (even tho this isn't even really TA, this is just recognizing patterns and being logical) -- try disproving this, you fags. Protip: you can't.
Post a proof of short with all your life savings or fuck off.
Best AT ever.
Not everyone fucking longs or shorts you retarded monkey.
then what would you say you do here
Yes this is all true.
Why? Do you hate money?
>Not everyone fucking longs or shorts
Do you know what the words "long" and "short" even mean?
You asking for a recommendation on what to do? do what you want, if you wanna stay in tether/fiat and just wait for the bottom then do that or if you wanna short then do that. It's up to you. I'm all in tether since May 17th, planning to buy back in when it's between 5000 and 3000.
absolute bullshit. mining costs $3k per bitcoin, even for people with the cheapest of power. mining is currently unprofitable at $0.14 per kilowatt hour. hashing volume is picking up, not going down. there's being bearish, and then there's just being unreal.
No one in china is payin 0.14 per kwh.
and this isn't even a bad thing. I can definitely tolerate btc hovering around 3-4k for some time while i accumulate as much BTC as possible alt trading before next bull run
it is irrelevant what is production cost
BTC will keep dropping and miners will be forced to disconnect their rigs
drawing conclusions from one sample... stay poor OP
Tend to agree with this forecast
I was going to call bullshit. And then I see someone with intelligence make an honest prediction. This is exactly what will happen.
miners in china no longer get preferential pricing, which is why all those who can are setting up shop in specific areas of other countries where electricity is cheaper. being in areas that aren't as open as china's special economic zones, they are now subject to various taxes that hurt their bottom line, and push the price that they'll sell for up even further from the cost of mining that they would have normally sold at. that being said, you think bitmain is gonna want to keep the price of bitcoin below the profitability levels of most of the world? they run a business selling miners and understand that more network hashrate = higher mining cost = a perfectly justified higher price (which is the genius of satoshi's proof-of-work system in that once widescale mining has begun, it incentivizes its own growth to the point of being unstoppable), so they want to appeal to as wide of an audience as possible. and, after all, why wouldn't they? they're in this to make a profit, not to help bill gates or warren buffet or any of the other elite boomers that haven't caught on to the incredible unstoppability of what they're up against buy cheap bags.
bottom line: buy. TA doesn't apply to bitcoin in the same manner that it does to stocks, because it's not stocks. bitcoin will ultimately prove to be the greatest incentive to generate wealth of all time, and part of this is having a minimal value. selling below mining price is giving away money, and we may never see this low of a difficulty ever again.
people skills
>Not everyone longs or shorts
T-this is bait right? You know that at any given moment everyone trading is either long or short right?
>log scale
opinion immediately discarded
This graph has a good point and is almost correct.
Thats cool and all but what about Etherium?
Log is the objectively correct way to chart prices, brainlet
So this mean we are going into a bear market for at least a years?
yes
satoshi logged in to bitcoin to change the consensus from a halvening to a doubling
the unlamboing of all btc holders shall commence now. if you just hodl, every four years your car will halve in value, pic related
sell before you owe
Do you realize the vast majority of people who own crypto don't even engage in trading? You understand that right? Most people just buy and hold, and later sell (either to take profit and cash out, or to be able to buy more later when price is lower), or never sell and just keep holding.
This is what happened after the last bubble, and this is historically what happens after every bubble. I think there's legitimately a high chance we go into a bear market for a couple years.
Long/short and trading aren't mutually inclusive. If you hodl BTC, you are LONG. If you hodl tether, you are SHORT btc.
BITCH I ain’t got TIME fa that shit just buy some fuquen bitcoin make da price go up
Holy shit no.
You're so retarded user Jesus christ
justify the exponential increase of power needed in the future then.
are you two fucking retarded?
>unlimited growth will always happen
fuck off you retard boomer
1x short on bitmex is the same as holding tether.
1x long is the same as holding btc.
The big money manipulating this isn’t stupid, they are holding an assload of btc.Last thing they want is their millions to be worthless.This is the bottom , already it’s unprofitable for miners.
general rundown: see pic related. i'm way too tired to get deep into it, but think about it like this: you're a miner who, like all other miners, wants to mine more bitcoin, cheaper and faster than anyone else—only, you're a nuclear physicist/general physicist/something along those lines, and you see an opportunity to put failsafe nuclear power reactors in the hands of every township—or eventually, even every home—all over the western world.
to think that we won't get to this point, or to leapfrog it, is nuts. bitcoin (cash, but still bitcoin core for some time) is the catalyst for an endless race to the top, because you can't trust that nobody is going to make an innovation to usurp your position in the corporatocracy. this is the beginning of the fall of the globalist corporatocracy, and if you don't have at least SOME STAKE in it at ALL TIMES, you risk missing the boat.
you need this too! ask yourself why it isn't possible to have unlimited growth if unlimited work is being done. the free market is the greatest thing ever to exist.
>what is difficulty adjustment
>If you hodl tether, you are SHORT btc.
mm no
>1x short on bitmex is the same as holding tether.
definitely not
stopped reading your pic at "bitcoin is always worth the power spent to mine it"
just because i spend a year trying to write a program or making a chair doesn't mean its worth the time I put into it.
the free market will determine if bitcoin is worth the electricity put into it. if in the long run it is proven that its not, then people will stop mining. period. the energy input into BTC is arbitrary. it helps give price support because miners are less likely to sell below cost, but that doesnt make it inherently valuable.
it literally is though. you end up holding the same dollars worth of bitcoin as if you had held tether, or dollars
i dont know if u are just tryna play dumb or not
holy fuck you dont know what youre talking about NIGGER
big if true
buying/holding tether does not short btc. shorting btc is the equivalent of selling btc you don't have on a loan.
i fucking hate summer children
you cannot get liquidated if you are 1x short. are u larping? i dont understand
im just gonna let the others take over for me on this one. you really are a doozy.
Mmmmm yes you smug prick. Let me guess you faggots think shorting = short selling = leverage trading?
In trading terminology, holding any asset in the hopes of buying another asset at a lower price is being 'short' on the second asset. The etymology 100 years ago may have come from the idea of borrowing then selling (hence being short) but if you're in tether, you are ABSOLUTELY short BTC/some crypto because especially with tether, your only reason for being in tether is to buy BTC/some crypto for cheaper later. The only way to not be short BTC/ETH etc., is to have cashed out completely.
So if I have 5 btc now, I am long BTC, I profit when it goes up, if I tether that 5 btc, with the intention of buying those bitcoins back at any point in the future, or buying any crypto, I am 'short' btc/whatever that crypto is.
Fucking smug newfags who have only been investing for six months I swear.
thebalance.com
what do you mean? i'm aware of what difficulty adjustment is, and from what i can reason, it seems to only work in favor of bitcoin's price. it always works out in such a way that the person contributing the most hashing power in a pool gets the most bitcoin, regardless of what the difficulty is—so, you always are incentivized to contribute the most hashing power, no matter how high the difficulty. this creates competition.
but it does make it inherently/intrinsically valuable; it is, for all intents and purposes, its own economy. go out and try to mine one bitcoin for less than $7k right now, and you'll find that unless you happen to live in an area of the world where the electricity is cheap, you won't be able to do it. you may buy it below that cost at the current moment, but given the motives that miners (many of who control a great deal of bitcoin) have to keep the price up—especially bitmain, as they're relocating their mining operations to different countries and still have to rely on hardware sales, and thus an attractive mining market—the price likely won't stay down for long, especially given the triple bottom formation in this particular case. aside from that, some speculators are likely aware of the fact that mining is, as a result not only of hardware and electricity costs, but also because of federal taxes, unprofitable soon enough, they will see this as the bottom and buy this dip.
your software example cannot correlate, because—among many, many other things—the value of human time varies. most people's time is simply not of great economic value, whereas costs of electricity and hardware of any given capability are quantifiable. electricity especially is a highly useful asset, because it can be used to power anything that needs power; one cannot simply get around this simple, but very strict barrier when it comes to bitcoin mining; electricity must be expended, and very capable processors must always be fabicated.
DA happens and mining becomes profitable at lower price points. It's that simple. This shit about price being propped up because of muh profitability is ridiculous. It will be profitable to mine at any price point after DA occurs. Bitcoin will be profitable to mine at $500.
forgot to specify that, of course, even if a "valuable individual" were to hammer away at a pile of sand or carve meaningless markings into a slate of metal for hours on end, what they're producing is clearly worthless—assuming that there's nobody crazy enough to pay them to do such things. the same goes for people who use outdated or flawed techniques as a means of producing or doing something; if someone can do objectively better in important areas in an equal amount of time (as decided in the end by the free market and all at the expense or to the benefit of the entrepreneur, of course—you get what i'm saying!) than they have created a favorable, more valuable method.
but, do you trust that the price would fall that low before someone takes advantage of the easing of the difficulty, or do you buy now out of the expectation that the miners who are mining now will continue to mine? after all, their continued efforts build faith in the bitcoin network's value, which is good face to any 4 quadrillion year-old boomers out there who grow faint at the sight of the volatility that cryptos have become notorious for. bitmain has pledged to continue mining below profitability, and of course, if it ever came to it again, people's greed could be relied on to cause another rise from the depths of a price abyss.
in the end, the whales who are left holding will, if they haven't already, come to the realization that bitcoin costs a certain amount to mine, and giving away below that price ultimately does not work in their favor. a greedy individual with a lot of money could simply buy the coins that they have sold, and put them up well above mining price, using the cost to mine as the barrier that it was intended to be. besides—imagine having claim to the title of the world's first undisputed trillionaire—and, you didn't even have to kill anybody, or collude with any governments! nobody hates you, and you spread wealth wherever you go! it turns out that all you had to do was hold onto magical internet money!
you are writing essays to cope with the fact that the price is dropping and DA ensures that it will be profitable no matter how low it goes
no, there is no magic point where it can't drop below, miners will simply flip the switch for a while and flip it back on once DA happens
done.
You've got the right idea user. Faster would be nice, but wouldn't count on it, honestly I think this time around may be slower, as each bear cycle thus far has.
what does DA stand for for the brainlets here
dumbledore's army
Dastardly Anguses. Irishmen whose sole mission in life is to prop up failed endeavors.
derivative advantage
>He doesn't mine with free Geothermal energy produced from the raw volcanic ground in Iceland.
Not gonna make it.
lost
This. When there are less miners overall mining costs per bitcoin will get lower.
This is literally how it's gonna go down. I think real estate will start going down within the next 3 years as well, but it will continue the uptrend for at least another year.