Honestly, what are Taiwan's odds at surviving the 21st century as an independent nation?

Honestly, what are Taiwan's odds at surviving the 21st century as an independent nation?

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30% I would say

...

It'll be around as long as the US is still a world power

How so?

Didn't the US recently decide to no longer recognize Taiwan or something?

well zero because it's not even currently recognized as a independent nation.

status quo? probably another 30 years at least.

I never really knew Taiwan was even a disputed territory. How come the entire world seems to be able to trade with them if they don't even recognize them?

In 1971 that was. Nixon.

Taiwan is regarded as a renegade province of China. the UN and most countries recognize one China which includes Taiwan. China does not exert direct control over them so countries are free to trade and travel there. so it's more or less a de facto autonomous region.

>it's not even currently recognized as a independent nation.

t. filthy mainland commie cunt

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even mainland China trades with them (on the justification that it is a rightful part of the People's Republic). Beijing rules out having diplomatic ties with countries that have formal diplomatic relations with Taipei, but generally stays out of trade.

well okay, only 19 countries in the world recognize Taiwan as a sovereign country.

What stops them from unification or exerting more power over Taiwan?

>The United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 was passed in response to the United Nations General Assembly Resolution 1668 that required any change in China's representation in the UN be determined by a two-thirds vote referring to Article 18[1] of the UN Charter. The resolution, passed on 25 October 1971, recognized the People's Republic of China (PRC) as "the only legitimate representative of China to the United Nations" and removed the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek from the United Nations.
What? Why did the UN just give up Taiwan?

several reasons, military intervention would damage the infrastructure, kill civilians and cost diplomatic prestige on the world stage. the wild card is also the USA which may or may not come to their defense, they left that intentionally ambiguous.

PRC seems so far content with letting Taiwan do its own thing as long as they don't declare sovereignty.

What pressured the world into not recognizing Taiwan anyway back in the 70s and before? China was a literal backwater shithole back then.

The coming cold war between the US and China will make the independence of Taiwan a big deal for America

I'm just curious why they wait so long. It could've been done 50 years ago.

They voted. China was in control of the entire mainland and there was no reasonable chance that the ROC would be able to reclaim that land.

Yes but why didn't the ROC be recognized as a thing on it's own, seeing how they were still in control of their own island.

because both the PRC and the ROC wanted the entirety of China. They both laid claim to all of China which includes Taiwan and the Mainland. the ROC didn't want just their Island, they wanted to be recognized as the legitimate government of all of China, including Outer Mongolia, modern day Mongolia.

Ah I see. That's pretty retarded.