I've been reading the For Dummies guide on Technical Analysis and I've done a lot of research on different indicators, their purpose, and looking for confluence, but I'm wondering how Jow Forums utilizes technical analysis and if there's any general tips that I should be aware of. Personally, I struggle a lot with timing my entries and exits based on my indicators. Feel free to share your favorite/most reliable indicators by the way. I've had a lot of success papertrading with bollinger bands recently but I haven't really tried with my real accounts.
Technical Analysis advice?
Austin Perry
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Joshua King
The candles I care about are doji, long legged doji, gravestone doji, dragonfly doji, hammer, inverted hammer, shooting star and hanging man. Engulfings on long timeframes only. But soldiers, haramis... those things never took me anywhere. My order of importance: Horizontal support and resistance, moving averages with DPO (on trading view, "[RS] Multiple moving averages System V3" is similar), Keltner channels, RSI, candles, inclined lines.
If you feel comfortable paper trading, manage your risk properly and give things a go, I think it's much more important than identifying trades, I like how this went over it. youtube.com
Zachary Hughes
Good stuff, I'll save this for sure
Landon Baker
I agree with most of that stuff. What I'd like to add is that risk management is the most important part in trading. For example, choose your position (you can use leverage if needed) such that you would only loose at most 1% of your account if it hits your stop loss (which you should always have). Most successful trader use 1% or even less. If you use more, then you'll likely get rekt sooner or later.
I would also rank high success probability pattern after horizontal support and resistance. Some examples are (regular and inverse) head and shoulders, (regular and inverse) cup and handle, wedges, triangles, channels, ... You should only trade the breakouts of those pattern (well, except when you're scalping after you know your shit very well).
Don't waste your time on that elliot wave shit. It doesn't work. Probably every trader that knows what he's doing will agree to that statement.
Colton Torres
if i tried to use more than 2 indicators it was just confusing. just choose an indicator and learn it.
Zachary Butler
Oh reminded me of something I also wanted to add. Don't waste your time on indicators. ema and rsi is usually enough. They can help a bit, but don't really rely on them. Maybe one more indicator would be okay, depending on your preferences.
Jason Gonzalez
You don't always need a stop, can be successful without. I personally don't, I have a price in my mind about where I would sell at loss but if it just taps that price I won't get stopped out. The only time I use stops is when I'm holding over night
Luis Jenkins
Julian Thompson
Is there a good crypto-focused TA guide out there? I've seen a few on Amazon but I don't know what they're worth. I know Philakone had a guide somewhere but I don't know if he's reliable or a larper.
Nathan Diaz
ta is a meme. you could as well apply astrology to the markets trying to predict the future (and like 50 years ago someone already was working on it, using even lunar tides and shit)
of course there's gonna be blinded people with faith, like this retard or this one that probably have had some successful trades applying ta. that[s what we call "survivor bias"
the best you can say when you open a position is you are buying a lottery ticket. the only thing you can predict is how much money you are going to lose, that is, of course, if you use stop orders, otherwise you will lose everything
>inb4 assmads reeee'ing about how jesus loves them
Nicholas Long
I see you too like to live dangerously.
Currently, I'm used to analyzing with bollinger bands, 10,20,50,100 SMAs, MACD and RSI. I'm sure it seems like a lot but I like seeing confluence between each indicator.
Jose Young
indicators are usefull but actual candle structure and patterns are way more useful....
also - risk to reward ratio - thats what you are looking for, eaven if you go really big with position size and leverage in a trade where you know you can leave a very tight stop loss because the area has been proven as big support/resistance you are fine...
still the most important thing is controlling yourself and dont overtrade....you may make a ton of money on one trade and than you start feeling invincible and start going cowboy and boom you lost everything...
i started at the end of march with 0.25btc on bitmex...turned it to 0.6...than the mega-squeeze of april happened and i lost all of my earnings....i startd to calm the fuck down and am limiting myself to max 3 trades per week and i have been going steadily up...still sometimes i fall into the trap of overtrading....
Start really small....like 100$ and see how you are doing....people raccomend demo accounts but if you have nothing to lose youll just go cowboy style and than you you start winning you are going to put in real money and lose a lot of it because of the god complex.....
David Moore
I don't see how recognizing and responding to patterns in the markets is a meme. Do you treat the stock market like a casino?
Blake Howard
you need stops if the exchange goes offline....when mex went offline like 10 days or so ago people lost tons of money....there was one guy on reddit that lost 42btc because he didnt have a stop loss and was just thinking if thing turn the wrong direction i will market-close the position - he got fucked really bad.....and hes not getting his money back....so be sure to always have s top loss kids
Joseph Stewart
Idk my position are 2% of my portfolio so even if they went to zero it's not that bad
Leo Thompson
i'm telling you can only predict how much you are going to lose. risk management is the name of the game.
look at this retard >that shit doesn't work, but my shit sure does!
and for your
>I don't see how recognizing and responding to patterns in the markets is a meme
every signal works everytime unless it doesn't. you see, price can go up but if it doesn't, it will go down
reading with more attention these, just look at this fag "over trading". if shit works, it works all the time not just when markets trend.
Dylan Phillips
Fair enough, I guess that also depends on your trading style. I often exit a position as soon as my idea is invalidated and before it hits my stop loss. I just made the experience that you can get rekt hard by a bart or something similar if you don't have a backup stop loss.
Crypto is no different than any other market. Or if it is different, then it's maybe a bit less efficient, which should help with TA. The classic books like Schabacker are a good read.
EMH kek. No serious academic is convinced that it is really true. There are always inefficiencies and there are many statistical studies that show that support, resistance and several pattern have a high probability of playing out. This has nothing to do with survivor bias. I guess you are trying to reassure yourself that if you can't make it work, then nobody can.
Keep it if it works. I'd use ema instead of sma and change the 10 to 200, but I'm not sure if that makes a lot of difference to be honest. I personally don't use MACD.
There are statistical studies that support most of my statements. I've never seen anyone apply elliot waves apart from a raging bull market (like we had in the last few years).
Nobody claims that these pattern or setups work every time. They have a high probability of working, but you should know when to exit if it doesn't go as planned.
I guess meant that he traded setups that were not ideal, that is what is usually referred to as over trading.
Isaac King
>many statistical studies
post one
Blake Sullivan
I'll even give you two. Lo et al 00 is the classical paper that showed that certain TA pattern (like h&s) work. Garzarelli et al 14 shows that support and resistance is actually a thing.
Austin Thomas
give me a link i can read, you nig. what would you consider "successful" pattern? how many times have you used a setup for entry to consider it reliable? 100 times? 1000? 10000? in statistics any person would literally lose their voice laughing at your face.
if you want to read about patterns, bulkowski have dedicated basically his whole life, and has tried to keep somewhat results on "common" patterns. look him up. i'm not endorsing him at all, but at least he's trying to prove this shit.
but hey, at least he's making money selling books.
Liam Martin
This shows how much you know about statistics. You can't even use fucking google scholar. I don't think that you have ever read any serious statistics literature if you can't even find those papers. How much of a brainlet are you? They tested big enough datasets. You're haven't even read those papers and you claim that they are fundamentally flawed. I'm aware of Bulkowski, but I wasn't able to find more about his testing methodology. If I list two resources, then this doesn't mean that there isn't more out there. Futher, I don't actually want to convince you that this works, I just try go give OP and other interested people good advice.
Ayden Sanchez
appreciated, btw
Anthony Powell
>I struggle a lot with timing my entries and exits
So... everything? You struggle with everything? Deciding when to put in money and when to take it out is literally the entire game.
What you meant to say is "I am bad at investing".
But please, go ahead. I'm not going to delude myself that you would ever listen to advice.
Charles James
well i'm already listening to other people who've deluded themselves that I'd pay attention. I'm relatively new to "investing" as you put it, though I'm more interested in active trading.
Asher Wright
> risk management is the name of the game.
I do not disagree. I do expect a trader using literally astrology to perform better over time than the most skilled chartist in the world assuming the astrologist considers risk management more than the chartist. I assume markets are people reacting to incentives. I call technical analysis to the study of historical data mainly on price and volume on a particular market or asset. With this study and others I make decisions and decisions have consequences. I would argue that all analysis on markets works much better reflexively. I have no problem calling myself a gambler but I don't think you understand what I do or why, when I open or close positions I have no intention of beating the market.
Actually even better, make your own. Distrust every study you haven't performed yourself, if a blind retard can do this I'm sure you can as well. And if you decide you don't want to study anymore, then everyone can be happy.
Logan Evans
steroids are for little manlets with even smaller weiners
Brody Parker
how'd you know i mainly browse Jow Forums
Tyler Cook
if you can predict the future, where were you on 9/11?
im not calling anyone a gambler, just trying to help some kid.
>Actually even better, make your own. Distrust every study you haven't performed yourself, if a blind retard can do this I'm sure you can as well. And if you decide you don't want to study anymore, then everyone can be happy.
sure, bud. my next paper was going to be a complete irrefutable hypothesis on how god doesn't exist, but that will have to wait i guess.