Are you a retard?

Do you browse pol or not?

Chance is 2/3rd. Jow Forums is cool.

2/3.

It's counterintuitive, I wouldn't fault anyone for getting it wrong.

Why counterintuitive?
There are 3 boxes and 50% of balls are gold.

Oops. Forget I asked. I can see what you meant.

It's not counterintuitive. You can figure out the right answer by just not being a retard.

the laws of this universe state that you will always pick a gold as your first, there is no probability at play here
third boxes irrelevant of course
this leaves two boxes, with the second option of gold and silver respectively. so 50% of picking the box with a second gold, and 50% of picking the box with the second silver

But I get why he said that.
People discard the third box. That way it would be counterintuitive.

It's not counterintuitive, you discard the third box because there are no gold balls in there. It's basic logic.

It’s 2/3 and this proves nothing bc I browse pol and only come here to laugh at people losing money hand over fist while the stock market has gone of like 30% the past year.

>Bertrand's box paradox
It's 2/3 since "you can't see into any of the boxes" which means there are 2 gold balls left since you know it's not a silver box, and 1 silver left or 3 options. Since this is 'box agnostic' it doesn't matter whether you have a gold ball from the first or second box - there's still 3 balls left, two which are gold: therefore two out of three.

Jow Forums is post-ironic trash. It's basically outrage porn for the """right"""

Fuck u cuckboi

your hand stays in the one box my dude
you can't change boxes
once your hand goes into one of two boxes there is only one single result per box that could happen
100% gold and 0% gold
50% of gold

>same box
>2 gold balls left
there's 1 ball left in that box
if you grabbed a gold ball, the ball that has a gold and a silver ball does not have a gold ball left in it. It's not one box of 6 balls with 3 openings that determine which balls can be grabbed.

this is like a fakeout for the monty hall problem. It looks like the same situation, but it isn't. Either that or OP presented it incorrectly.

initially you have 1/3rd chance of grabbing the box of 2 gold balls, but once you grab a gold ball its 50/50

>your hand stays in the one box my dude
You don't know which box! BOX AGNOSTIC
>100% gold and 0% gold
>50% of gold
Holy shit you are dumb.
It's a probability, right?

there's 2 gold balls left.
BOX AGNOSTIC.
If you have a gold ball you are either going to grab a gold ball or a silver one... there's two gold balls left. You don't know if you're in the box with the silver ball or one ball

thanks, i was wondering how people could say 2/3, thought they're completely retarded, but you showed a thought process that's not even that dumb. still pretty dumb tho

you know it's one of two boxes
if it's the first one you have a 100% chance of getting the second gold
if the other box, 0% chance
50% chance of picking a second gold

yikes, i regret saying you're not retarded he even explained it to you and you still didn't get it

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>You know it's one of two boxes
Yes... of which there are three balls left since you took out the gold one. You don't know WHICH box you took it out of, you don't know the contents.
You've already taken out a gold one.

Not as dumb as flogging a dead horse.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox
What part of there being three balls left don't you understand and they are evenly weighted in terms of probility.

Put it this way, if there were two boxes, in one box was a Red ball, in the other was a green and a yellow. And you don't know which box your hand is in - what is the probability of getting a red ball?

You idiot will say "50% Because there's a 100% chance of it being a red ball in box one" but there's two boxes and three balls... the BOXES DON'T MATTER.

Seeing biz get this wrong is hysterical.

50%. Given: You took a gold ball. There were only 2 ways to reach this scenario.
A) you got box 1 with another gold ball in it.
B) you got box 2 with the silver ball leftover.
The fact is, one of those is what really happened. One out of two. 1/2. 50%.

No I don't browse pol.

>appeal to authority
old fucks also thought the sun revolved around the earth but that turned out to be wrong

it's 50%
there are two time lines you can go down
only 1 gives a gold ball
end of story

Is this a meme that I somehow missed? All those brainlets insisting on the answer being 50% must be in on the joke, right?

the meme is how you interpret the question
stem autists will always pick 2/3 because "huur 3 balls left and two are gold"
right hemisphere dominant philosophy gods will choose 1/2 because they see reality for what it is

>it's 50%
>there are two time lines you can go down
>only 1 gives a gold ball
>end of story
Wrong framing. Why are you still thinking in the boxes?
If there is a red, green, and a blue ball - what is the possibility of me picking any one of them? 1/3 each.
What if I put the red one in a box, and the green and blue in another box. I don't tell you which box you're reaching in - what is the possibility of getting the red ball? 1/3.
Of course you've stopped reading tipoff at this point
Now, what if instead of blue, one of those balls was red. So there's two red balls in two different boxes, and a green ball.
2/3 possibility of a red ball.
The boxes don't matter if you can't see them.

Seven

the boxes do matter because I already know the possible outcomes of each box
there are two boxes, one has a gold remaining and one has a silver remaining, two remaining options... 50%

Almost had it!
It's 33% (or 1/3) ÷ 50% (or 1/2)

>reality for what it is
Go ahead and do the test a thousand times. Realize you're an idiot.

The answer is really simple. You might think there are initially 3 possible scenarios but there are 6:

* You pick the box with 2 gold balls and take the first.
* You pick the box with 2 gold balls and take the second.
* You pick the box with 2 silver balls and take the first.
* You pick the box with 2 silver balls and take the second.
* You pick the mixed box and take the gold one.
* You pick the mixed box and take the silver one.

We know that we didn't pick the one with 2 silver balls, because we take a gold one.
And we know we didn't pick the mixed one and take the silver ball.

So there are only 3 possible scenarios:

* You pick the box with 2 balls and take the gold one.
* You pick the box with 2 gold balls and take the first.
* You pick the box with 2 gold balls and take the second.

So the answer it's 2/3, not 1/2 because it's less likely that you pick the mixed box and take the gold one, than that you pick the gold box and take a ball.

left hemi brainlet confirmed lmao

all 2/3 autists just failed to read it right

wrong. you will always pick a gold 100% of the time first go, laws of this universe say so.
this leaves you with either picking another gold or the silver. TWO OPTIONS
ONLY TWO
DEUCE

I'd say trips of truth but it doesn't matter if you take the first or the second gold ball. once you pick a gold ball your possibilities collapse to being one remaining gold ball or one remaining silver ball. you don't have a higher chance of having the double gold ball box just because you picked a gold ball out.

If you pick a gold ball is more likely that it came from the box with 2 gold ball than from the box with only 1.

>because it's less likely that you pick the mixed box and take the gold one, than that you pick the gold box and take a ball.

We already 100% have the gold ball. We're asked to calculate the probabilities after we already took out a gold ball not what they would be from the beginning.

I see that you don't give up on boxes.
So here's the question
You drew a gold ball, you got it!
Now you know there are 3 boxes total and the gold balls are for sure in 2 of them.
1 box has 100% probability that your next ball will be gold
One 50% probability
One 0%
You know that the box that you chose from is not the one that has 0% probability cause there are 2 silvers there.

So what's more probable:
that you chose from the box with 2 golds or mixed?
Or in other words:
If you had only 2 boxes to chose from and one contained only 2 gold and one was mixed, what would be your probability of second gold?
Would it be higher or lower than pulling silver?
If you discard the third box, you are left with 2, but then the probability of drawing gold goes up.
The question is deceiving but simple if you think about it like that.

This is where the crux of the discussion is. Once you pick a ball, you remove the previous probabilities. you have already picked a gold ball. assuming it **was** more likely from one box or the other is flawed.

having two boxes limits you to TWO POSSIBILITIES
ONLY TWO POSSIBILITIES
YOU CAN'T SWAP BOXES ONCE YOU'VE DRAWN THE FIRST BALL

seriously dude Its pretty fucking simple

It is not.
Because once you discarded the box with 0% probability you are left with 2 boxes in which drawing gold is more probable than drawing silver.

The absolute retardation of you

Actually only 1 possibility of drawing a gold from 2 boxes containing 2 gold balls(since you already got 1) and 1 silver.

by some divine intervention you will always draw a gold as your first pick
that's not up to chance
what's up to chance is the box you picked in the first place, leaving 100% and 0% chance respectively. 50%

you are picking from one box
that box contains either
>1 gold
or
>1 silver

50/50

the other boxes don't calculate in because you are not given the choice to pick another box.

Again.
When you get your gold and discard your shit box containing 2 silver balls, you are left with 2 boxes containing more gold than silver.
So your probability of drawing hold is then more than 50%

>first draw is gold
>2nd draw is from same box
learn to read people

nope
the question is asked after you draw your first gold
so there is only the possibility of drawing a single gold and single silver
50%

Actually I take it all back. I tried to boil the argument down with scale and figured that I was wrong
Consider a box with 100 gold balls and 1 gold 99 silver balls. If you draw a gold ball, what are your odds of getting a gold ball next?
The odds of getting the gold ball from one were much lower than the other. If you have a gold ball, your odds of being in the gold only box are much higher. you still could be in the silver box, but the odds are very low. With my old argument, it would still be 50/50. but you were never equally likely to have a gold ball in the silver box.
I don't understand the math entirely, but I understand the logic.

Wow some of you can't even do basic math

if one time only, 50%
if repeated like 1000 times, 1/3 or 2/3 probability, I don't fucking know, would have to think for a while, I'm slow but deep like my thot lmao

>same box
>same
S A M E

ONLY ONE BOX YOU CAN DRAW FROM THE S A M E BOX YOU PICKED FIRST

Ok guys enough is enough, retards that chose 1/2 woo will never make it.
People that chose 2/3 will make it.

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>he thinks he can pick from the other box

>"You draw a ball at random. It's a gold ball."
Is different than
>"You are guaranteed to draw the gold ball"

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Not as far as probability is concerned.
If the question was:
You have 2 boxes, one with 2 gold balls and one mixed : 1 silver and 1 gold
Total of 4 balls, 3 of which gold.
Then, if you drew gold, what's more probable: to draw another gold or to draw silver?

from the idiots that shilled you LINK

The only reason I can see for you trying to make those two outcomes not the same is because you don't know if the silver ball in the mixed box is on the right or left side. WE see it on the right side. So to make the visual easy. You draw the left ball one your first draw.

THIS IS KNOWN

You draw the gold ball first. So you can KNOW that you draw the left ball first, Now you draw the second ball. THE RIGHT BALL.

You can only be drawing a ball from the middle or left box THIS IS KNOWN

The RIGHT BALL is 1) Gold 2) Silver

Hmmm guess it's 2/3 after all.

Refer to
Please refute

Ok. Again. What's more probable: that the next ball that you draw is silver or that it's gold?
You have 2 boxes(4 balls total) and drew a gold ball from one of them.
You know you have 2 gold balls and 1 silver left in these 2 boxes.
So (forget about numbers) what's more probable?
That you will draw gold or that you will draw silver, next?

That's not an IQ question. You could've picked a question from an actual IQ test but instead you picked a trick/math question.

not the question. change the question all you want, then you can get any answer you like.

The fuck? That's the official answer, how can you be so retarded?????

The premise is the same with different numbers. It assumes that by natural chance you pull a gold ball which means your odds of being in one box is not the same of being in the other. All I have done is made the point more obvious.

50%
I browse: k, pol, biz, and fit, get toasty.

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It's a logic question, how can people be given the right answer and still say it's 50?
There are a bunch of retards in here.

Oh wait dear fucking lord you are still this dumb. You mean because of CHANCE and you are still adding the chance of the first draw.

The first draw is gold. Just is. No probability to do here. Drop all balls not involved in the first draw. Move on from the first draw. Move on from the silvers in the silver box. Move on from the other box that is no longer in existence.

Fix your brain dude

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Retard confirmed.

Why, exactly?

I think a lot of it is trolling, so there's that.

How can you be so stupid?

Me?
I'm not saying that I'm the smartest person in the universe but what stupid thing did I just say?

Are you guys trolling our genuinely low iq. The question clearly states that in the scenario the first ball drawn is golden, or asks the probability of the second draw alone.

Meaning the double silver box doesn't even come into play. To have drawn gold first, you are in either the middle or left box, and the second draw odd from the same box.

You're underestimating the stupidity of people. And their stubbornness too.

People sometimes understand it when you expand the problem to larger sizes. For example a box with 100 gold balls and 99 silver and 1 gold. It should be pretty obvious that when you have a gold you're much more likely to have taken it from the 100 gold than the silver thus the next is more likely to be another gold than a silver.

The answer is: 1/6
also Jow Forums is aids. Anybody that goes there is retarded

The most effective way I've explained it is that it's the same if you put the 4 balls in the same box.
Them being in different boxes is just an illusion.

Oh that.
I probably do. But I worked as a tutor for statistics at my uni to pay the bills, so I guess I'm used to people not understanding.
People get confused because the logic used to do math does differ from the logic (or rather, the intuition) that we use every day.
Sometimes it needs a little shift I guess.
I tried to understand where that shift was needed and that way I could teach.
I explained the percentages on an example of a cake divided into 100 parts to a 20+ year olds...it works although I got lost a few times.

It's not when it clearly states that you draw from the same box for the second draw. They after either separate, or they not.

not my fault the official answer is wrong
you have one box that you are taking 2 balls from. what's in the other 2 boxes doesn't matter and doesn't factor in.
you are picking 1 ball from a box with 1 ball in it. that ball is either silver or gold. done.

the flaw in the logic comes in with statements like this:
>You know you have 2 gold balls and 1 silver left in these 2 boxes.

that's wrong. the box cannot contain 2 remaining gold balls, and you can't choose another box.

a) you picked from the 2 gold box and now there is 1 gold left to pick
or b) you picked from the gold/silver box and there is 1 silver left to pick

Yeah, you need a shift in your vision to understand the problem.
But that's why most of the people that got the problem wrong will never make it. They don't have the ability nor the intention to change their perspective.

Nice method, this actually makes sense.

Refer to this

Good thinking there.
It's still not working on some though.
That's why I think some of it is trolling.

You have probably never taken an statistics course.

I agree.
I once got myself into a stupid discussion about " smaller and bigger half"
After 45 minutes(I'm patient) I realized that I will never convince the person that I was discussing this with, that halves are always equall.
They kept ripping pages in unequal halls and presenting it to me as a proof that halves can be different.
Dude was not even that stupid, just refused to change his position no matter what.

>not my fault the official answer is wrong
Wtfffffff???? How can you be so stubborn and fucking stupid???

yes exactly it's a logic question
so if your first draw is gold, thay only leaves you with the possibility of a gold or silver
50%

this is literally just a different form of the monty hall problem, the famous problem known for being counter intuitive and stumping lay people and mathematicians alike.