Entering the market in a recession

Jason Edwards
Jason Edwards

Ok, so I just graduated college and have 10k in savings. With the recession looming, what are the best options for investments?

Here are my thoughts:
-When credit-based purchases (car companies, and real estate) P/B drops below half of the previous year high = near bottom of the crash.
- At bottom buy luxury (TIF, KORS), motor (GM, TM, NSANY), and real estate (LGIH, TOLL), and tech.
- I could potentially short the same list as of right now, but I dont know enough.

Thoughts? Recommendations?

Attached: inv-y-curve.png (107 KB, 954x169)

All urls found in this thread:

grist.org/article/how-harvards-investments-exacerbate-global-land-and-water-conflicts/
trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=recession,rolex,wheat bread
books.google.ca/books/about/Resource_Wars.html?id=4swk0glJuswC&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false

Cooper Perry
Cooper Perry

farmland REITs
uncorrelated to stock market
farmland values go up each year even if commodities are in a bear market

Joshua Baker
Joshua Baker

based. michael burry from the movie Big Short loves farmland and water.

Ayden Ross
Ayden Ross

10k isn't enough to make anything lol. 50% gain on 10k is only 5k. i'd put that 10k in money market, short term bonds, and puts on s&p.

Charles Kelly
Charles Kelly

By the stock MRK
they have a vaccine for ebola that they have mass produced and sold stock piles to america, spain, and the congo.
The stock recently had a pull back due to the over all market loss over the last few days and is sitting around 76 a share with a forward PE ration of 13
of course this not taking into account the huge bonuses that could occur from the recent ourbreakn in the congo
which has now spread to neighboring couuntry's and has made it into some all the larger cities in the region all while a civil wars is going whos muslim militants are shooting aid workers left and right under the assertion that they are there to "poisin" the populace as they local vacinators were administrating them to children without cleaning nedles and thusly spread the disease
either way
its going to get a shit load worse
and MRK is poised to benifit
get it in soon
i bought like 2 weeks ago and have already made 10 percent

Michael Green
Michael Green

10k is very little to invest in the stock market.
Even if you get 10% (which is A LOT), you will have made 1 grand. So what? You can't expect to get the same return every year as compound.
I would rather invest in education.
A mix of books, courses, and a small budget to test a real life business idea might provide MUCH more value in the long run.

Adam Thompson
Adam Thompson

This is sound advise OP but only if you dont know what your doing and or are risk aversed
i made 35 Percent in 3 weeks on US steel after the first pull back due to the steel tarrifs

Nicholas Miller
Nicholas Miller

the world is fighting over resources mayne, he's only following what top international security scholar's are saying. After crypto i'm going to spend my time investing in farmland and companies that have anything to do with the process of extracting and purifying water. it's a long game though. we have more than a decade to accumulate lol

Cooper Perry
Cooper Perry

just short the market.....?

Daniel Martin
Daniel Martin

got any short links or articles on this? i'm interested but not sure if to take action. it's a bit too apocalyptic, not sure if realistic.

Brayden Ramirez
Brayden Ramirez

People bearish on the market are stupid as fuck
Just put it in one of the many Dividend paying stocks that have been pushed to discount from rising interest rates.

Bentley Baker
Bentley Baker

also wouldn't you prefer physical farmland over REIT?

Landon Rodriguez
Landon Rodriguez

stock picking
bottom timing
When the bottom actually comes in with support (if a recession happens at all in your timeline) you start buying.
Buy SPY or SPXL if you like risk. Don’t waste time on individual picks. If you must larp as some kind of quasimoto, focus on sector rotation.
$1,000 isn’t a lot of money
Getting any return >0 is sufficient for compound gains. You don’t get them by staying out of the market and reading get rich books.
Though it is half refreshing to see Jow Forums regressing to the “business ideas” meme
Liquidity is a bitch

Evan Campbell
Evan Campbell

Yeah, 5 years max holding time.

Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker

true. the water and farmland idea does appeal to me as a long hedge and as an uncorrelated asset. what should i look into buying?

Brody Reyes
Brody Reyes

here's a good article i just googled up:
grist.org/article/how-harvards-investments-exacerbate-global-land-and-water-conflicts/

Cameron Turner
Cameron Turner

Is google trends ever used in analysis? With pretty much everything being covered in the news it might be representative of macro trends?

trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=recession,rolex,wheat bread

Nathan King
Nathan King

I see college didnt give you a brain

Lucas Perry
Lucas Perry

You will get rekt
The most expensive lesson an investor learns is that contrarianism rarely pays. Being early is being wrong. Go with the primary trends especially when they are macro trends. You are not Burry

Justin Rodriguez
Justin Rodriguez

yeah. personally i would do farmland + reits (it's a lot of work to own farmland). i was just suggesting that to OP since he's playing with 10k

books.google.ca/books/about/Resource_Wars.html?id=4swk0glJuswC&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false

here. this book was written just before the iraq war, and does a good job of amalgamating the actual policies of nations competing for resources (actual quotes from secretaries of defense, presidents, advisers, generals). Very very good resource, although Dr. Klare kind of is an environmentalist. Basically you don't need to agree with his prescription for the problem. His analysis of the whole setting changed my view of the world completely, and I completely understand the neo-cons now. I actually respect them. Hilary in this context isn't so bad either. Bernie is fucked for our national security

Camden Hall
Camden Hall

Liquidity is a bitch
this can be a problem, but if you DYOR and buy some good land, you can always rent it out to a farmer. farmers stay for a long time too

Andrew Cruz
Andrew Cruz

what are you doing to invest in farmlands?

Dominic Thomas
Dominic Thomas

Saw an article about how crypto price to trends was 95% statistical correlation -> thought there might be an extension, but eh probably only in retrospect.

Josiah Brown
Josiah Brown

oh. didn't realize you were a brainlet. yes, every quant fund on earth uses AI techniques for this

Ian Edwards
Ian Edwards

bought ETH early

Xavier Sullivan
Xavier Sullivan

Dump it in a ETF/Fund such as S&P 500 index or a total retirement option. This will give you broad market exposure with the lest amount of risk yet also give you a decent return over time. I think the average return is 7%. Reinvest any payouts, this will only increase your return over time.
Ex: S&P 500 index w/div's reinvested @ 7% return x 15 yrs. After 15 yrs turn off drip. Pocket the fat payout. This assumes you don't invest anymore other than the 10k. 7% is an assumption, it may be more or less depending. But historically 7% is on target. Yes 7% don't seem like a high amount but keep in mind your CD return is only 2%. Most banks shell out even less.

Easton Allen
Easton Allen

no i mean like what etfs are you buying?

Gabriel Sanders
Gabriel Sanders

-Crypto has nothing to do with the real world...
-People are looking up "recession" because of the 3/5 yield curve inversion which doesnt matter
-people do not buy reits, 'agriculture' or commodities in recession, those things have a much worse pay off than holding stocks

The only thing that would protect you is treasry bonds, and money wont move their until the fed lowers rates. its impossible. So, buy stocks

Christopher Jackson
Christopher Jackson

The most expensive lesson an investor learns is that contrarianism rarely pays.
Meta-contrarianism (contrarianism to the contrarians) does, though. That's why I come on Jow Forums, since you fags are all about contrarianism and doing the opposite of what "normies" do, I do the opposite of what you guys are doing and profit huge.

William Evans
William Evans

-people do not buy reits, 'agriculture' or commodities in recession, those things have a much worse pay off than holding stocks
so don't buy farmland ETFs right now?

Henry Parker
Henry Parker

like which one exactly?

If you mean one that tracks commodities I say no. For Reits POSSIBLY if money starts moving back into income investments 2019

Jeremiah Murphy
Jeremiah Murphy

The only way you'll get rich fast in the market is if you get really really lucky with some stock that's bargain basement that skyrockets in 6 months or 5 yrs. The odds of that is slim. Amazon did not churn into the $1600 per share monster it is now over night. The ipo was $3 per share back in the day. It took 20 yrs to get to where it is now. Back then no one knew if it would sink or swim. Point is time is your friend and time is your only option. Tilray was another but it flamed out. If you were lucky and rode it till it hit $200 per then sold at the top you'd pocket some nice dough. But most stocks are not lucky like that. Most flame out.

Isaiah Ortiz
Isaiah Ortiz

All in ChainLink (95%) and Ethereum (5%). Run a ChainLink node once mainnet is out.

Kayden Perry
Kayden Perry

It's not recession yet, it's still late cycle. During the recession accumulate real estate, info tech and industrials while they are on sale, dump them once they appreciate in the early cycle.

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Grayson Mitchell
Grayson Mitchell

When the economy enters a downturn it takes 2 to 3 years for the stock market to bottom. For example after the dot com crash in 2000 the markets didn't bottom until 2003. After the 2007-2008 financial crisis the stock market didn't bottom until 2009.

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