Before you buy anything, make a brokerage account and read investopedia articles and/or the books in the OP list. If you don't have a broker, you can't buy stocks and if you blindly buy things without understanding how the stock market works or doing any research on the individual stocks you're buying, you will lose money and it will be entirely your fault.
daily reminder that yield curve posters are just following the herd, succumbing to group think, and will not make it. they never heard of yield curve inversions prior to this occurrence. all eyes are on it, including the risk parity guys, and portfolios have already been adjusted.
also, did you know the average interest rate was 6% during previous inversions? the 10yr is at 2 and change, it makes a difference. this is not to say that you should be balls deep, EVER. always have enough cash/bonds on the sidelines to take advantage of whatever situation may arise.
The reason the strategy works best by holding the bonds 3 years after inversion is because the recession usually happens 1 to 2 years after said inversion. The deeper reason it works is thus that you're selling and getting back in one year or so after the recession begins.
There's plenty of reasons for pessimism besides the yield curve, it's simply that it's probably the most clear signal we're going to get for a time frame.
Levi Howard
It depends which agency. FHA is a little bit better but Tennessee Valley Authority is probably the best. They'll give you yields a full percentage point above the ten year treasury, around 3.5 right now.
Austin Wright
i've learned that being pessimistic or optimistic doesn't do much for me, since i'm probably not going to apply that sentiment in a timely way and catch a top/bottom anyways. i hold 20% bonds/cash at all times and reallocate every so often to maintain that ratio.
Jace Ortiz
I can not factually back it up yet but Im afraid timefrme of yield curve wont work this time and main reason for that is Jerome fucking Powell
Blake Phillips
Thanks for the explanation. Will reread when I get home from gym, but this is my understanding: You’ll keep playing the market for 3 years, then cash out and buy 10 year bonds fed bonds. When those bonds mature, 13 years from now, you’ll put the money back into the market. Yes?
the yield curve is pretty much the way to do that in a timely manner. The potential upside of investing in low risk assets right now is very high.
Not even Powell can bring back the american harvest that's been lost. I'm willing to bet that's where the crisis will start. That's how the great depression started too. Watch for rural bank failures.
>plenty of reasons for pessimism War with Russia very bullish!
Isaiah Adams
>just following the herd, succumbing to group think, This is how the market works. The trick is not to outthink the market, but underthink the market. If following the yield curve is idiotic and obvious, chances are that's whats going to happen. The stock market isn't decided by smart people, just rich people.
This kinds of cutthroat profit making is really fucking the markets lately. Whales are trying to gang rape as much as they can out of the bull market while they still can
Ryan Nelson
Invictus jumping from .82 to .94 every friday last two weeks, don't forget to pick up your free 10% dude weed swing trades this weed
A pattern only persists long enough for someone to find it. As soon as you try to jump in you're fucked. Case in point: AAPL the last 3 days.
Parker Kelly
>the yield curve is pretty much the way to do that in a timely manner. time will tell, but if you're wrong then you'll miss out on a potential big run that could be difficult to make up. if i'm wrong then i'll sit and pout with my drawdown, buying along the way. in the end, i know i'm shitty at timing such things so i'd rather not risk it.
good points
David Parker
I genuinely couldn't tell if you were trolling or not.
You buy the bonds AS SOON AS the yield curve inverts. You sell the bonds after three years from the inversion, that is BEFORE they mature.Then from the proceeds of that sale and the interest you've accrued, you put that money back into the stock market which would presumably be at a lower level.
Adrian Nguyen
Perhaps, but then again only a fool bets against the market? I feel like I can get at least one or two free crab trades.
If I'm wrong I still keep pretty much all the money I've put into the market plus interest. If you're wrong you loose some 40 percent of your current holdings and probably get set back 5 years.
Jacob Thompson
nah thats not what Im thinking, heres wat Powell said in 2012 >I have concerns about more purchases. As others have pointed out, the dealer community is now assuming close to a $4 trillion balance sheet and purchases through the first quarter of 2014. I admit that is a much stronger reaction than I anticipated, and I am uncomfortable with it for a couple of reasons. >First, the question, why stop at $4 trillion? The market in most cases will cheer us for doing more. It will never be enough for the market. Our models will always tell us that we are helping the economy, and I will probably always feel that those benefits are overestimated. And we will be able to tell ourselves that market function is not impaired and that inflation expectations are under control. What is to stop us, other than much faster economic growth, which it is probably not in our power to produce?
He understands the fuckups and he's too smart for cards he's been given, this is what worries me, he's not dumb enough to let market crash and start pumping fedbucks afterwards. Look at december, any fundamental changes? Indicators still going bad, trade meme is going forever and were moving sideways. My idea is Powell knows market got used to pricing in FED manipulation and he'll do everything to force market to believe its not the case, holding market too high for yield curve invertion to prove to be irrelevant so market doesnt know what the fuck to do would be one of those things only way this happens is they both nuke Britain or smthn
Dude weed isn't very profitable. I was checking out IIPR options and holy heck are they overpriced. Even if you buy itm calls on a down day you need a 4-5 dollar increase for break even
Nolan Rodriguez
This market is manic. Only a moron would buy into this bubble. We are up 20% in 3 months.... It is literally impossible for the market to have grown that fast in 3 months. You have to be sub 80 IQ to not be all cash at this point. This crash will be historic.
>longing the American Empire You'd need to be stupid to do that in the first place.
Adam Harris
SDS is only about 10% of my portfolio. Even a draw down over two years of 40% is less than the interest i'd be earning and that's not even counting any gains I'd make from trades.
Its the same people/groups of people coordinating their selling so they can rebuy cheaper and leave you holding the bags.
Nolan Ramirez
Not everything on the market is coordinated like that, user. Sometimes it is. Sometimes it's just overall uncertainty.
Jayden Perry
this month is pretty much direction pick either we crack or we go for another months-years of """"economic expansion"""" Here's a vid to keep you calm while you sit on cash, there are reasons to sit a little if youre not DCAing your positions youtube.com/watch?v=t1KAhVyRKHI
Tyler Carter
>Before you buy anything, make a brokerage account and read investopedia articles and/or the books in the OP list.
This place has been overrun by faggots
John Miller
That'd get you spiky charts. These are plateau-y charts. Large sale volume mirrored by the buy volume after panic sells drive price down.
Adrian Lee
lol, how do real men interact with the stock market?
Joshua Price
If you can't make it with intuition alone then you've got no advantage. Book learning will only make you act in a predictable way, easy pickings for algorithms.
Dylan Perez
Do the people who come here illegally open up broker accounts and invest?
What are some good stocks to sell jan 2020 puts on?
Bentley Bennett
That's why teenagers make such good traders
Alexander Foster
Wall Street is all guys like me in their twenties. The younger the trader, the better. It seems like you fundamentally do not understand the difference between trading and investing.
William Smith
Yup, unless it's LEAPS. Long term options on FAANG is money
Justin Morales
Yeah but if the market dips theta decay will rape you while you wait for things to go back up.
Blake Campbell
t. Delusional Robinhood user
Jayden Hall
Lyft
Kayden Morris
NEON and PLUG are making my broke ass some money. What else can a flat-ass broke individual like myself invest in?
>He thinks wall street traders are 65 yr old boomers How can you be so disconnected from reality? Trading is about adaptive ability. To identify patterns and quickly capitalize and seize on those patterns
Hudson Ortiz
with those quads you deserve the best. you deserve RPV
> he didn't fall for the bear crash meme
Luis Gomez
sell not buy
Mason Rodriguez
Anyone follow Microsoft? Thinking its gonna break the 120 resistance. Options are cheap because its past the ATH. Is anything really holding back other than people trying to get out at the top of the parabola?
Samuel Ortiz
Did not read, whoops
But buy puts anyway
Brayden Nelson
most truly successful traders are 35+ with 10+ years of real 9-5 daily experience in markets
some kids do take to trading like fish to water but most people who make money in something like futures or forex are foxes who managed to survive blood stained years of brutal reality
gommie wants centralized planning for the government to take control over everything..... He's a giant faggot who can't even comprehend the way the markets move because of his own personal beliefs. he accepts no other opinion for his own and hopes for bail outs and service interruptions... The worst part is he's not even to hide his intentions of his own beliefs....
If you shorted oil and bought VIX don't be scared and wait 2 hours before changing positions.. If you are a massive faggot you can take it up the ass or stuff your man meat down the throat of another guy, and those into 3-somes with you a guy and another guy, well as long as you identify as a man there will be people who support your endevours too even if they are wrong...
Anyone have any ideas on the China deal and when that will be resolved?
Nathaniel Long
Yeah dude the market will go up forever. It toootalllyyyy makes sense. 25% in 3 months totally organic and sustainable growth. The world economy allwayyyss increases by 25% every 3 months. This is totally normal. Definitely no pullback coming. Not like we have recession signals like inverted yield curve or slowing global growth trends. Not like we have longest bull run in history. naa dude the golden bull will continue forever. hahah right
Ayden Roberts
>25% in 3 months totally organic and sustainable growth. we basically just made back the losses of the sell of the previous 3 months
Tyler Jackson
>demon’s whisper
Das what I call muh farts!
Isaiah Stewart
some people get their wings burned off before they can fly... It's sad, but with daily self improvement and learning, self understanding and re-evaluating... problems can be solved and the fact most people do not evaluate themselves as a single entity that requires constant maintenance is why the vast majority of people fail.. where I have seen failures I have seen the struggles and ways to become better... shit..... I wish I was 35 with 10 years of experience.. some of you will be running around my wheel chair when we party together.
Samuel Allen
It was a correction.
Lincoln Lewis
yeah wait until 4/24 chinese
James Price
Just talked to Liu He. He say: Buy China big time !
Jack Myers
The american market the world market is trash but the rest of the world is too busy having big goverment control their banks and taxing their buisness out the ass so its no wonder they have free healthcare and a economy that hasn’t recovered post finacial crisis
Daniel Richardson
Come now baggie I ask for people's opinions on here all the time. I at least accept and acknowledge uncertainty in every claim I make, unlike some people that just know how to spew nonsense with authority.
Takes your meds before you do something silly (again)
Ethan Flores
How can you tell that a stock is going to continue trending up? I know there is no 100% sure fire way to know, but how can you be pretty sure?
Blake Perry
If you haven't bought the stock it'll keep going up if you buy it, it'll P&D alone or the market will have a downswing and drag you with it
hope it helps !
Jacob Murphy
I want to say, america is being treated like a dumping ground, there is destruction of what the country was founded upon in front of our eyes... I guess Trump is going to skyrocket us, or we leave and find a bottom as the crypto market swells up and bloats up.. not at least accumulating shit coins while trading the stock market, i guess makes you a fool, since we're all looking for a 1 world economy and placing bets everywhere we can find an edge.
Connor Parker
For those of us in our late 20s and early 30s, this might unironically be an uptrend going well into our retirement. Lessons are learned from every crash and 08-09 showed us that the central banks will do almost everything they can to keep the system propped up. Bear friends have been calling for a recession for so fucking long now and it's not happening anytime soon.
what meds? fucking die slow asshole, i hope you live a long stressful live, and all your friends give up on you and dont see you on your dying days.
Juan Collins
I'm sure your doctor can tell you everything you need to know. No need to be rude, friend
Eli Garcia
european banks are failing, it's honestly china and india we have to look for to actually get growth and sustainability, but everything is propped up on debt and at this point if you're not seeing the problem maybe you are the problem.
Levi Campbell
I dunno I'm kinda hoarding my cash right now. Gotta rebuild my savings back up anyway in case shit happens.
Yeah it's fun to watch what I got invested grow and pay off for me but I know the big dip will be happening sooner or later. So I'll wait for the dip, hoard my cash, then buy like crazy. Screw the brokerage outta some fees to; why buy a few shares here and there @ 4.95 a pop when I can just wait and buy a big shit pot load in one full swoop.
Mason Russell
what doctor? fuck off, don't talk to me like that, as i pay for health insurance i haven't seen a doctor in over a decade... just go fuck your self again for good measure.. actually post a btc address i'll give you 50 usd to go find a black man to give you aids.
Hunter Reed
I feel like the big dip is something everyone is always saying is on the horizon. Not to say that it can never happen, but it is always about to happen according to everyone.
Jonathan Stewart
having a savings stacked is key, shit can happen, you're smart. I have too much emotion at times and need to sit back and relax, it's like i need a vacation, but can't figure out how to relax so can't even begiin.
Ryder Parker
Trying to get out at the top of microsoft?
Right before they win the JEDI contract this month? Screencap this insider
Tyler Flores
im retarded, emotional, and have a drinking problem... for years i've been saying my solution to my problem is another beer... shit i have nothing to say anymore.. if I can't control my self, and don't see a problem i should be fucking the demon that haunts me...
>this time it's different >we found the magic money button >no possible downsides
It's always 8-16 months away according to everyone. And then boom.
Aiden Price
Taylor swift is the demon that haunts you?
she's so old now just move on
Xavier Davis
find me a new siren to listen to... women voices are so great... i love it more than anything.
Henry Thomas
its sad people miss the beauty in the self realization and apotheosis that trading provides every day is a terring down and then rebuilting of your soul. You get to have inner monologues that are like /POETRY/ like your a main CHARACTER in a Claremont comic
